OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RU-05]

Steve Grasso has absolutely nailed his calls recently on fast money. Got out of big tech including Apple in early Sept before that dip. Some of his recent stock calls are TSE, OLN and most recently SONO, all of which jumped in short order.

Though he did call a dip of the S&P to 2800 when it was around 3200. So not batting 1.000. This call though was based on the blue wave which of course has turned into (what looks like) a split congress.

 

[RU-05]

So what does a 10x P/E, a .31x Price/Sales, a 2.88 price to cash flow, but a 71x price to book tell you?

Anyone?

The stock is SBH, by the way. If we were looking strictly at precovid levels I'd sy there is room to run to regain those levels, but the stock price has been on a downward trend for years, so I wonder if that trend is applying pressure.

 

[RU-05]

So was 30K for the DJI a resistance level? Do we typically see the DJI work within technical boundaries like that?

 

[Frida's Boss]

Anyone?

The stock is SBH, by the way. If we were looking strictly at precovid levels I'd sy there is room to run to regain those levels, but the stock price has been on a downward trend for years, so I wonder if that trend is applying pressure.

It has been a long time since I looked closely at Sally Beauty, but just be aware that you are looking at a sub-investment grade, levered equity with a considerable debt load. I can’t imagine their end markets have performed well in this environment.

 

[tom1944]

Not stock or investment but I was wondering what people plan to do regarding when you will take social security?

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

Not stock or investment but I was wondering what people plan to do regarding when you will take social security?

Open Social Security: Free, Open-Source Social Security Calculator

opensocialsecurity.com

Here is a calculator that helps you try to optimize the “when.” I don’t think there is any one answer that is right for everyone. Many people say to delay until 70 to get the annual 8% increase but of course you forgo payments if you delay. Many feel that the lower earning spouse should take at 62. A lot depends on how long you think you’ll live and if you think it’ll still be funded down the road, cash flow needs, etc.

Personally, I’m waiting at least a few years to convert some of my traditional IRA to Roth. I won’t wait until 70, though. Lots of different opinions and articles on this question.

 

[mdk01]

Not stock or investment but I was wondering what people plan to do regarding when you will take social security?

Health is such an important factor, though not the only factor, that it's really an individual decision.

 

[RU-05]

It has been a long time since I looked closely at Sally Beauty, but just be aware that you are looking at a sub-investment grade, levered equity with a considerable debt load. I can’t imagine their end markets have performed well in this environment.

About a 10% decrease in rev's yoy. Considering the environment, that's pretty good, so they might not be selling at Macy's but maybe they are selling through online suppliers or dtc? 3rd qtr revs pretty much inline with last year.

I assume the debt load is reflected in the high price to book?

 

[Frida's Boss]

About a 10% decrease in rev's yoy. Considering the environment, that's pretty good, so they might not be selling at Macy's but maybe they are selling through online suppliers or dtc? 3rd qtr revs pretty much inline with last year.

I assume the debt load is reflected in the high price to book?

Yes, the debt is picked up in the high price to book. I glanced at their financials. Looks like revenue has declined a bit back to 2017, and they are using FCF to repurchase shares. Could be viewed as a sign of confidence, but I suspect the business is not likely to grow very quickly if at all. Could see earnings per share growth with the share repurchases, but I do understand the valuation metrics in context of performance.

 

[RU-05]

Yes, the debt is picked up in the high price to book. I glanced at their financials. Looks like revenue has declined a bit back to 2017, and they are using FCF to repurchase shares. Could be viewed as a sign of confidence, but I suspect the business is not likely to grow very quickly if at all. Could see earnings per share growth with the share repurchases, but I do understand the valuation metrics in context of performance.

I see a very high debt to equity, but a low debt to assets. As you say they are buying back stocks. High price to book.

Care to enlighten a newbie to what might be going on there?

 

[RU-05]

Another "beauty" stock that is on fire of late(especially today) and apparently the options action is super hot as well is COTY. Like SBH on a long term downward trend, but could they get back to their pre covid highs which they are about 50% down from?

Price to sale .83, price to book 1.15, price to cash flow 3.69.

SBH has reported to be more profitable over the years though, and through Covid as well.

 

[Frida's Boss]

I see a very high debt to equity, but a low debt to assets. As you say they are buying back stocks. High price to book.

Care to enlighten a newbie to what might be going on there?

Sure. It’s the balance sheet equation, nothing more. Total assets = total liabilities + shareholders equity. SBH has lots of debt, included in total liabilities, and comparatively less equity relative to total assets.. So, you can have a high debt to equity ratio and a lower debt to assets.

share repurchases can also reduce the amount of book equity, which can magnify the ratios you cited.

 

[jtung230]

Just bought some VXX for excitement. Think the market will take a dive due to politics.

 

[tom1944]

Open Social Security: Free, Open-Source Social Security Calculator

opensocialsecurity.com

Here is a calculator that helps you try to optimize the “when.” I don’t think there is any one answer that is right for everyone. Many people say to delay until 70 to get the annual 8% increase but of course you forgo payments if you delay. Many feel that the lower earning spouse should take at 62. A lot depends on how long you think you’ll live and if you think it’ll still be funded down the road, cash flow needs, etc.

Personally, I’m waiting at least a few years to convert some of my traditional IRA to Roth. I won’t wait until 70, though. Lots of different opinions and articles on this question.

Thank you

 

[T2Kplus20]

Just bought some VXX for excitement. Think the market will take a dive due to politics.

On my phone now, so I will post the chicken little GIF later. :)

 

[T2Kplus20]

Open Social Security: Free, Open-Source Social Security Calculator

opensocialsecurity.com

Here is a calculator that helps you try to optimize the “when.” I don’t think there is any one answer that is right for everyone. Many people say to delay until 70 to get the annual 8% increase but of course you forgo payments if you delay. Many feel that the lower earning spouse should take at 62. A lot depends on how long you think you’ll live and if you think it’ll still be funded down the road, cash flow needs, etc.

Personally, I’m waiting at least a few years to convert some of my traditional IRA to Roth. I won’t wait until 70, though. Lots of different opinions and articles on this question.

Interesting topic. I'm a little young to really start thinking about this, but assuming that we won't really need SS in retirement, I would likely defer until 70. This will maximize the benefit and help my wife in retirement. She's 4 years younger than me, so she will likely outlive me. I believe if you kick the bucket prior to claiming, your wife can still claim and get the higher amount (based on the age that you died). I think?

 

[RU-05]

Just bought some VXX for excitement. Think the market will take a dive due to politics.

Bought some last week as a hedge, it's down 8% since. Think you got in at a better time then I did and it will eventually jump a bit.

Though if you look at the trend since it's peak in March, you see a series of lower highs and lower lows(another thing I've learned to look for). The most recent high was $28 in late October. If it get's back to $25 I'm out and put the money towards NCLH.

 

[RU-05]

Take your pick on which EV/Lithium/Hydrogen stock you want to make big money on. Huge runs of late from PLL, NIO, LI, RIDE, PLUG, FCELL.

Todays winner was BLNK up 24% today. 150% in a month.

Maybe keep an eye on BE. Current price of $18.76 is not that far out of line with precovid high of$14.50, and actually below recent highs of $23.00. Prior to this year they had solid rev growth, though Covid may have stalled that trend this year.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

Interesting topic. I'm a little young to really start thinking about this, but assuming that we won't really need SS in retirement, I would likely defer until 70. This will maximize the benefit and help my wife in retirement. She's 4 years younger than me, so she will likely outlive me. I believe if you kick the bucket prior to claiming, your wife can still claim and get the higher amount (based on the age that you died). I think?

Social Security Survivor Benefits for Widowed Spouses in Retirement

Social security survivor benefits are a key source of financial security to widowed spouses in old age. The surviving spouse gets an amount equal to the worker's full retirement benefit.

www.nasi.org

Yes, the surviving spouse gets the benefit of the deceased. Please see link. Another reason in favor of delaying, for some amount of time, is to convert some traditional IRA assets into Roth. If you work for a few decades, it’s not unusual to have an IRA in the seven figures. If one spouse dies earlier, the surviving spouse gets hit with RMD and generally at a higher tax bracket filing single, coupled with possible/likely higher tax brackets in general, compound the tax bite. So the years in early retirement and prior to social security can be used to convert at a presumably lower bracket.

 

[mdk01]

Social Security Survivor Benefits for Widowed Spouses in Retirement

Social security survivor benefits are a key source of financial security to widowed spouses in old age. The surviving spouse gets an amount equal to the worker's full retirement benefit.

www.nasi.org

Yes, the surviving spouse gets the benefit of the deceased. Please see link. Another reason in favor of delaying, for some amount of time, is to convert some traditional IRA assets into Roth. If you work for a few decades, it’s not unusual to have an IRA in the seven figures. If one spouse dies earlier, the surviving spouse gets hit with RMD and generally at a higher tax bracket filing single, coupled with possible/likely higher tax brackets in general, compound the tax bite. So the years in early retirement and prior to social security can be used to convert at a presumably lower bracket.

It's unusual to have a 7 figure IRA unless you're in the 1%. Surviving spouses have the full RMD tables and the age the requirements begin has been raised to 72, so the initial required distributions are not that onerous. If there's a reason to convert it's because if the kids inherit the IRA they will now have a 10 year window to fully distribute.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

It's unusual to have a 7 figure IRA unless you're in the 1%. Surviving spouses have the full RMD tables and the age the requirements begin has been raised to 72, so the initial required distributions are not that onerous. If there's a reason to convert it's because if the kids inherit the IRA they will now have a 10 year window to fully distribute.

Agree with the raised age of 72 and published RMD tables. I disagree with it being unusual to have a seven figure IRA after working for decades. Also both spouses may have an IRA that come into play for RMDs. I know many people that convert due to this potential tax situation. Each couple’s situation is different. My suggestion is for people to examine their situation and proceed accordingly. If you go onto Bogelheads.org, for example, you’ll find many threads and discussions on this topic. Finally, my comment was in regard to the question of when to take social security. Depending on your situation, it may be advantageous to delay SS and do some conversions in early retirement when your income is lower. Good problem to have, though.

 

[mdk01]

Agree with the raised age of 72 and published RMD tables. I disagree with it being unusual to have a seven figure IRA after working for decades. Also both spouses may have an IRA that come into play for RMDs. I know many people that convert due to this potential tax situation. Each couple’s situation is different. My suggestion is for people to examine their situation and proceed accordingly. If you go onto Bogelheads.org, for example, you’ll find many threads and discussions on this topic. Finally, my comment was in regard to the question of when to take social security. Depending on your situation, it may be advantageous to delay SS and do some conversions in early retirement when your income is lower. Good problem to have, though.

1 IRA for 1 million or 2 IRAs that total 1 million? There's a difference. And with possible age differences a different planning scenario.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

1 IRA for 1 million or 2 IRAs that total 1 million? There's a difference. And with possible age differences a different planning scenario.

Agree there is a difference. Could be seven figures for each but even if combined, depending on ages, you have RMDs, social security (maybe), possible defined benefits plans that may come into play. Like I said, good problem to have.

 

[mdk01]

Agree there is a difference. Could be seven figures for each but even if combined, depending on ages, you have RMDs, social security (maybe), possible defined benefits plans that may come into play. Like I said, good problem to have.

7 figures each and they're not in the 1%? Please. And that would also mean the spouse's own earned SS benefit would exceed any spousal benefit.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

7 figures each and they're not in the 1%? Please. And that would also mean the spouse's own earned SS benefit would exceed any spousal benefit.

Not 1% in net worth, maybe 1.6% in IRA for an individual. I’m not saying this is applicable to all and I’m not writing this for the lowest common denominator. If it applies, great; if not, ignore,

 

[T2Kplus20]

Not 1% in net worth, maybe 1.6% in IRA for an individual. I’m not saying this is applicable to all and I’m not writing this for the lowest common denominator. If it applies, great; if not, ignore,

+1
Not hard to reach this level at all. Just takes time and sticking to the plan.

 

[RU-05]

Take your pick on which EV/Lithium/Hydrogen stock you want to make big money on. Huge runs of late from PLL, NIO, LI, RIDE, PLUG, FCELL.

Todays winner was BLNK up 24% today. 150% in a month.

Maybe keep an eye on BE. Current price of $18.76 is not that far out of line with precovid high of$14.50, and actually below recent highs of $23.00. Prior to this year they had solid rev growth, though Covid may have stalled that trend this year.

BE up 14% today. PLUG another one that I own, up 7%. FCEL which I sold a couple months ago at like 2.25 up to $8. Up another 44% today which is nuts. I think BE and PLUG are fairly safe at their current labels, but I think FCEL is due for a big drop.

 

[RU-05]

PLTR which I botched the after market hours sale of at $14 up to $20. Up another 11% today.

 

[RU-05]

Steve Weis pushing JMIA, the "amazon of Africa" on fire of late. Up 25% today and has doubled in the past week.

If it is indeed amazon of africa this may be a good time to get in.

 

[mdk01]

BE up 14% today. PLUG another one that I own, up 7%. FCEL which I sold a couple months ago at like 2.25 up to $8. Up another 44% today which is nuts. I think BE and PLUG are fairly safe at their current labels, but I think FCEL is due for a big drop.

ALB up $6 today and 38% since Election Day.

 

[T2Kplus20]

PLTR which I botched the after market hours sale of at $14 up to $20. Up another 11% today.

Russell 2000 looks to be picking up steam and overperforming the large caps.

 

[toby83]

Even that turd IDEX rode the EV gravy train today

 

[RU-05]

Even that turd IDEX rode the EV gravy train today

Full 100% move today. For one day that turd was a hero.

 

[toby83]

Full 100% move today. For one day that turd was a hero.

Lol

I am pretty psyched even though was messing around taking pennies from .85 to 1.00 for month or so.

Now have to decide how much to leave in.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yesterday was a good day:

The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 1.9% to another record high amid the rotation into beaten-down companies.

Futures up again:

Dow surges more than 400 points, closes above 30,000 for the first time ever

The Dow broke above 30,000 for the first time amid positive vaccine news, hope for a strong economic recovery in 2021 and easing of political uncertainty

www.cnbc.com

 

[mdk01]

Yesterday was a good day:



Futures up again:

Dow surges more than 400 points, closes above 30,000 for the first time ever

The Dow broke above 30,000 for the first time amid positive vaccine news, hope for a strong economic recovery in 2021 and easing of political uncertainty

www.cnbc.com

Elizabeth Warren NOT nominated for Treasury Secretary ---- Dow futures up 300.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Elizabeth Warren NOT nominated for Treasury Secretary ---- Dow futures up 300.

HA! HA! Very true. 👍

 

[RU-05]

Yesterday was a good day:

The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 1.9% to another record high amid the rotation into beaten-down companies.

Futures up again:

Dow surges more than 400 points, closes above 30,000 for the first time ever

The Dow broke above 30,000 for the first time amid positive vaccine news, hope for a strong economic recovery in 2021 and easing of political uncertainty

www.cnbc.com

Much of this has come in the last 3 months, but the Russel2K has beaten the major's over the last 6 months. By a safe margin.

 

[RU-05]

Just looking at my own personal chart, but my current curve is looking a lot like my curve in early June just before that dip(and I fell harder then the majors) so I think I'm going to start trimming some of my recent high flyers.

 

[RU-05]

I did find a small silver mining stock that I have done really well with of late, but the rest of my gold and silver holdings have been dogs for months. Got rid of my GLD and GOLD, still holding my SLV, but I'm thinking of giving it the boot as well. Down 15% over the last 3 months.