OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

I got out of the most of my techs last month I believe when the market went up. I only had about 100 shares of them and now hold about only 25-50 shares of AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, and MSFT. I sold most of my equities a while back when they started to say market going down in 2023 due to earnings. I have been buying more short term CD and treasuries about 40% of my assets but willing to move to 60-70% because it nice not watching the market. I will see around the first qtr 2023. I did buy a little more AMZN 83 and AAPL 131 this week. I still expect them to fall further.

That’s why I ‘m glad I’m a trader and don’t feel bad when I sell. I would have been killed with big losses if I held those stocks. I only have a small loss since I probably in at 5-10% of stocks.

Guess how much I lost in 2022? Exactly nothing. Don't need the money for a long time, so no selling (except for reallocations and fun money trading). Once you have a perspective than matches your time horizon, bear markets are a blast. We invested more new money in 2022 than any year before. Also, our 2023 backdoor Roth IRA contribution checks are ready to go.

My plan is to continue to build modest positions in various leveraged ETFs. Doing well with TQQQ with a nice cost basis and plenty of cash in my fun account. I also converted VB to UWM and have excess cash in our Fidelity IRA rollover to build positions in RXL, LABU and either USD or SOXL (likely USD).

I'm also tracking YINN for a China reopening play once omicron rips through their population. Zero Covid is over. The great thing about 2x or 3x plays is that in such a bear market, you don't need to risk much money for a huge gain. Just need patience and a strong stomach.

To challenge your bearish POV, check out the following. Worth the time to get a bull perspective (outstanding charts and data):

 

[rutgersdave]

We invested more new money in 2022 than any year before.

You and your spouse are still working so you can invest new money. I have been retired for 14 years and have been living off my investment income before I started receiving my social security and pension last year. I have to allocate my assets as best I can to maximize my returns which I believe am doing a great job. I really don’t expect to use my investments but if I get 5% return on the majority of my investments I think that fine for my beneficiaries.

 

[T2Kplus20]

We invested more new money in 2022 than any year before.

You and your spouse are still working so you can invest new money. I have been retired for 14 years and have been living off my investment income before I started receiving my social security and pension last year. I have to allocate my assets as best I can to maximize my returns which I believe am doing a great job. I really don’t expect to use my investments but if I get 5% return on the majority of my investments I think that fine for my beneficiaries.

I get it. My dad retired 20 years ago and once he reached a certain $ of assets, he literally pulled everything and put it all in a stable value fund. My mom continued to work at the time since she enjoyed RU, but wasn't really doing 401k/403b at the time.

That's a big YIKES to me, but worked well for them. I think in about 8-10 years (daughter out of HS) we will start setting up our 3 retirement buckets:

1. Money for the next 5 years (fixed income investments)
2. Money for 6-10 years (60% equities, 40% bonds or fixed)
3. Money for 10+ years (100% equities)

That's our overall plan. We shall see what we do when the time comes. LOL! You are very conservative. Since you don't need most assets, you should at least consider an index fund, especially after the 2022 bear. VTI, VOO, VIG, VTV. All of these would be home runs for you.

 

[rutgersdave]

I get it. My dad retired 20 years ago and once he reached a certain $ of assets, he literally pulled everything and put it all in a stable value fund. My mom continued to work at the time since she enjoyed RU, but wasn't really doing 401k/403b at the time.

That's a big YIKES to me, but worked well for them. I think in about 8-10 years (daughter out of HS) we will start setting up our 3 retirement buckets:

1. Money for the next 5 years (fixed income investments)
2. Money for 6-10 years (60% equities, 40% bonds or fixed)
3. Money for 10+ years (100% equities)

That's our overall plan. We shall see what we do when the time comes. LOL! You are very conservative. Since you don't need most assets, you should at least consider an index fund, especially after the 2022 bear. VTI, VOO, VIG, VTV. All of these would be home runs for you.

Your parent retirement money really isn’t for you or your spouse but for your kid, the next generation. This is similar to my situation where the next generation is doing fine but it a safety net for their kids.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Your parent retirement money really isn’t for you or your spouse but for your kid, the next generation. This is similar to my situation where the next generation is doing fine but it a safety net for their kids.

We also need to help cover my nephew (sister's son). They are doing okay, but made a few bad housing decisions and have a lot of debt. Nothing crazy, but it will be tough for them to properly fund a 529. As of now (knock on wood), our 529 is overfunded, so we will likely shift some funds to him, if needed. He is 4 years younger than our little one, so the timing works out well.

Started money lessons with the little one a few months ago and that has been tons of fun. Her school begins financial literacy this year/5th grade, so I'm keeping topics sync'ed up. :)

 

[T2Kplus20]

Merry Christmas everyone! Great article as 2023 is about to begin:

Where Are Stocks Looking Cheap or Expensive?

7 charts on valuations as the stock market heads into 2023.

www.morningstar.com

 

[Goo]

Good idea to put some context to this article. If you feel a recession is unlikely, unemployment will not creep up, yields will come down, earnings estimates will remain stable, China covid will have no effect on demand, etc., then yes, Stocks are cheap.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Good idea to put some context to this article. If you feel a recession is unlikely, unemployment will not creep up, yields will come down, earnings estimates will remain stable, China covid will have no effect on demand, etc., then yes, Stocks are cheap.

Recession unlikely - Yes unlikely, Q4 tracking for 3% annualized growth, nice back to back Qs, our recession was in early 2022
Unemployment creeping up - Perhaps a little, but not enough to make an impact
Yields will come down - Yes, inflation is crashing, Fed pause coming soon
Earnings will remain stable - The market bottoms on average 11 months before earnings bottom, we are well within the time frame, also, all the dire earnings warnings over the past 9 months have been wrong
China Covid - China is experiencing a massive surge, but more importantly dumped Zero Covid, the country will be in a much better place soon, China gov also signaled push for economic growth

What else you got? :)

 

[tom1944]

It was a mild recession also

 

[T2Kplus20]

It was a mild recession also

+1
Lots of folks freaking out about something that already happened. Just like inflation. LOL!

 

[Goo]

I hope you are right.
Recession unlikely - Yes unlikely, Q4 tracking for 3% annualized growth, nice back to back Qs, our recession was in early 2022



Stanley Druckenmiller - “Once inflation has gotten above 5%, it’s never been tamed without a recession.”



Unemployment creeping up - Perhaps a little, but not enough to make an impact



“Don’t fight the Fed”



Yields will come down - Yes, inflation is crashing, Fed pause coming soon



TLT is telling a different yield story



Earnings will remain stable - The market bottoms on average 11 months before earnings bottom, we are well within the time frame, also, all the dire earnings warnings over the past 9 months have been wrong



If TLT is correct and yields do not ease up, companies heavy in debt will be the first to feel it. Stay tuned. Things take time. Just like the current downtrend. It’s not a waterfall like the Covid crisis.



China Covid - China is experiencing a massive surge, but more importantly dumped Zero Covid, the country will be in a much better place soon, China gov also signaled push for economic growth



Eventually they’ll be in a better place now that they’ve abandoned zero Covid. We wait and see what happens to demand. I personally do not have a crystal ball, I just have a feeling (full disclosure).

 

[Goo]

Here is my wish for the new year.

S&P is able to hold this 3700-3800 area and make a run for 4300.

If we give up though (on a weekly or daily) then 3400 unfortunately.

Sorry.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Here is my wish for the new year.

S&P is able to hold this 3700-3800 area and make a run for 4300.

If we give up though (on a weekly or daily) then 3400 unfortunately.

Sorry.

For 2023 - the S&P 500 will hit a new ATH and perhaps reach 5,000. Dow and R2K will also hit ATHs. I'm 50/50 with the Nasdaq, since it has come down the most. I'll say 15K+. This is going to be a great year.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I hope you are right.
Recession unlikely - Yes unlikely, Q4 tracking for 3% annualized growth, nice back to back Qs, our recession was in early 2022



Stanley Druckenmiller - “Once inflation has gotten above 5%, it’s never been tamed without a recession.”



Unemployment creeping up - Perhaps a little, but not enough to make an impact



“Don’t fight the Fed”



Yields will come down - Yes, inflation is crashing, Fed pause coming soon



TLT is telling a different yield story



Earnings will remain stable - The market bottoms on average 11 months before earnings bottom, we are well within the time frame, also, all the dire earnings warnings over the past 9 months have been wrong



If TLT is correct and yields do not ease up, companies heavy in debt will be the first to feel it. Stay tuned. Things take time. Just like the current downtrend. It’s not a waterfall like the Covid crisis.



China Covid - China is experiencing a massive surge, but more importantly dumped Zero Covid, the country will be in a much better place soon, China gov also signaled push for economic growth



Eventually they’ll be in a better place now that they’ve abandoned zero Covid. We wait and see what happens to demand. I personally do not have a crystal ball, I just have a feeling (full disclosure).

We already had a recession with 2 negative Qs (when inflation was 7-9%). The labor market has kicked the Feds ass so far. With inflation crashing and leading indicators suggesting CPI to be under 4% YoY by mid-year, the Fed pause and then pivot are coming soon. Calm down on TLT. What do you think it will do when the Fed pauses? You are worrying about the tail, not the dog. With China dumping Zero Covid, it may be time for a YINN trade. Their companies have been crushed. With the gov solidly pushing economic growth now, hang on to your hats. They can influence their markets way more than we can in the US.

And FYI.....I hope I'm right as well! :)

 

[Goo]

“In the past, the NBER would call a recession after two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP). What makes things different this time is that other economic indicators still showed strength during the same contraction period. This forced the NBER to reassess.”

Again, I do hope you are right. A recession would be painful for many. For now, I’m not ready to ignore someone like Staley and others who are urging caution.
Stanley Druckenmiller says he’d be ‘stunned’ if recession doesn’t happen in 2023

 

[T2Kplus20]

The great China reopening has begun. Zero Covid is over and the gov is going to push to reclaim the economic growth lost during the shutdowns.

Beijing roars to life a month after zero-Covid lockdowns fade, but China is not out of the woods yet

The rebound in social activity in Beijing is an example of how long it might take for the country to shake off the economic impact of zero-Covid controls.

www.cnbc.com

 

[RU-05]

Here is my wish for the new year.

S&P is able to hold this 3700-3800 area and make a run for 4300.

If we give up though (on a weekly or daily) then 3400 unfortunately.

Sorry.

Is that a year end prediction?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Is that a year end prediction?

One year ago. EoY 2022 predictions from 12 of the biggest investment shops ranged from 4400 to 5200. Bottom line, nobody knows nothing. :)

 

[rufan4ever]

One year ago. EoY 2022 predictions from 12 of the biggest investment shops ranged from 4400 to 5200. Bottom line, nobody knows nothing. :)

That's because everyone underestimated the Fed. The Fed continues to stick with higher rates for longer yet many still believe they won't hold to it and predicting they ease during 2023. There is uncertainty regarding 2023 earnings. With that overhang and the fact that one can earn 5-6% basically risk free, for the short term there is no rush to buy equities. Check out MUJ...Blackrock Muniholdings NJ Fund yielding 4.5% tax free. Also, PGF...Invesco Financial Preferred ETF yielding 6%. These are excellent places to collect yield and eventually when the Fed reverses course and eases, they will rise in price resulting in capital appreciation.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Excellent sales data for the holiday season. Higher than expected, but mostly due to volume, not prices. This paints the picture of robust economic activity along with falling inflation.

US retail sales rise 7.6 percent during holidays

U.S. retail sales rose 7.6 percent during the holidays this year, despite inflation pressures and recession fears. The year-over-year bump recorded by Mastercard’s SpendingPulse tracker during the …

thehill.com

 

[RUDead]

 

[RUinPinehurst]

View embedded media

Capitalist pigs! LOL.
Green movement (as in /greenbacks $)?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Capitalist pigs! LOL.
Green movement (as in /greenbacks $)?

I think this has been going on for a while now. People are selling their cars to people too impatient to wait for a new one (and were getting a mark-up). Funny stuff! People always figure out a wait to make money. :)

 

[patk89]

Tesla continues to plummet. $118/share.

 

[jtung230]

Tesla continues to plummet. $118/share, 2020 gains wiped out.

In-line with big tech/FANG. But I think the rebound will lag due to the realization it’s a car company

 

[T2Kplus20]

@rurahrah000 - You mentioned YINN before. Any thoughts on their advertised reopening? Popped to 50'ish with recent positive news. Was selling for over 600 prior to China going China.

 

[RU in IM]

Tesla continues to plummet. $118/share.

$109.57. I guess the people who questioned the excessively high valuation may have been on to something. This is why wisdom gained from previous frothy markets is invaluable.

And ARKK at a 5 1/2 year low. I haven’t seen too many posts from the “stop the hate” C.W. supporters

 

[Joey Bags]

Southwest Airlines’ fall from grace is impressive. Once considered a model airline with a great business model is an absolute disaster, and has morphed into one of if not the worst managed airline in the US.

Stock price is getting close to pandemic shut down lows.

 

[T2Kplus20]

$109.57. I guess the people who questioned the excessively high valuation may have been on to something. This is why wisdom gained from previous frothy markets is invaluable.

And ARKK at a 5 1/2 year low. I haven’t seen too many posts from the “stop the hate” C.W. supporters

Correction: The people who questioned Elon may have been on to something. Check the calendar. TSLA decline started with the Twitter announcement and Elon's massive selling. That's the story, not valuation.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Southwest Airlines’ fall from grace is impressive. Once considered a model airline with a great business model is an absolute disaster, and has morphed into one of if not the worst managed airline in the US.

Stock price is getting close to pandemic shut down lows.

Was just reading this…

 

[jtung230]

Correction: The people who questioned Elon may have been on to something. Check the calendar. TSLA decline started with the Twitter announcement and Elon's massive selling. That's the story, not valuation.

Why would anyone question Elon? His Tesla stock sales are timed perfectly.

 

[Joey Bags]

Was just reading this…

View embedded media

Not gonna lie, that sounds like a BS copout to me. So this system they use worked fine for 20 years of full strength scheduling, but now in 2021/2022 with a reduced flight load and smaller fleet it’s suddenly untenable? Doesn’t add up.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Why would anyone question Elon? His Tesla stock sales are timed perfectly.

Sadly, he saw a shiny new toy in Twitter and screwed the pooch on Tesla. However, looks like things are changing and hopefully he will be done with this distraction soon.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Sadly, he saw a shiny new toy in Twitter and screwed the pooch on Tesla. However, looks like things are changing and hopefully he will be done with this distraction soon.

His ego is greater than his "genius." Foolish. And, in terms of character, he's a mega-creep.

 

[T2Kplus20]

His ego is greater than his "genius." Foolish. And, in terms of character, he's a mega-creep.

He's a genius that thinks he can do anything/everything. That's a blessing and a curse. He made a mistake with Twitter. Let's see if he can right the wrong.

 

[RU in IM]

Correction: The people who questioned Elon may have been on to something. Check the calendar. TSLA decline started with the Twitter announcement and Elon's massive selling. That's the story, not valuation.

It’s a combination of both. It was an excessive valuation….and it is discussed daily on every financial network. It also declined 80 points before the announcement, and since then, his distractions with Twitter has not helped.

 

[RUBlackout7]

Sadly, he saw a shiny new toy in Twitter and screwed the pooch on Tesla. However, looks like things are changing and hopefully he will be done with this distraction soon.

There might be some lasting damage there. He showed the world how unstable he is, and investors do not like unstable CEOs. Guy needs to shut his mouth and get back to work.

 

[T2Kplus20]

There might be some lasting damage there. He showed the world how unstable he is, and investors do not like unstable CEOs. Guy needs to shut his mouth and get back to work.

+1
Get the new CEO in place, shut up about Twitter, and get back focused on TSLA.

 

[T2Kplus20]

It’s a combination of both. It was an excessive valuation….and it is discussed daily on every financial network. It also declined 80 points before the announcement, and since then, his distractions with Twitter has not helped.

Not really. EM started teasing about Twitter in late March, early April and made the formal offer on 4/14. TSLA was at an ATH on 4/4. Right in the thick of the silliness. EM sold about $40B of TSLA stock. That's a crazy amount of shares that were dumped into the open market. It also had a negative halo effect. Why buy TSLA when EM was still dumping?

Surely TSLA would have dropped since April due to the bear market, but the rout is mostly on EM. TSLA is still a great company with great products. I'm eagerly waiting for a TSLA play when the time is right.

 

[patk89]

Why would anyone question Elon? His Tesla stock sales are timed perfectly.

Nice article in the opinion section of the WSJ this morning making the exact point that you did yesterday about investors realizing that Tesla is, at its core, a car manufacturing company. The valuations were way too high for a company in this sector. YTD down 73% and the largest driver of the decline in the S&P in 2022. Facing intense competition from other EV manufacturers. Some dip buyers coming in today after a 7-day losing streak.