Not sure about that. The politics of DC are changing as we enter the presidential election cycle. Remember, every Fed member is a political appointee.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
FYI - instead of doing puts/options, Direxion has 2 single stock ETFs for TSLA. One bear (-1x) and one bull (+1.5X). May be easier for you:
Explore Direxion's All ETFs | Direxion
Explore Direxion's leveraged and inverse and non-leveraged ETFs. Find the ETFs to meet your investment goals.
www.direxion.com
Better yet, play options on the Direxion ETF'sFYI - instead of doing puts/options, Direxion has 2 single stock ETFs for TSLA. One bear (-1x) and one bull (+1.5X). May be easier for you:
Explore Direxion's All ETFs | Direxion
Explore Direxion's leveraged and inverse and non-leveraged ETFs. Find the ETFs to meet your investment goals.
My problem with the industrials at the moment is they just went on a great run. CAT is up 50% since late Sept. DE is up 30 something %.Any thoughts on the sectors for 2023? Lots of folks seem bullish on industrials (obviously, if we avoid a legit recession). Perhaps a 2x sector trade? :)
I have been reading up on the Fidelity reports:
Investing in sectors | 2024 Outlook for investors | Fidelity
Investors may be wondering what sectors to invest in for 2024. Find out where Fidelity's sector managers have found the most compelling opportunities.www.fidelity.com
So is there more there room to run? Maybe, but a lot of that run has already happened.
I am in defense stocks, and they too have been on a great run, but it's been more steady and sustained. NOC's chart for 2022 is perfect. HII has been nice and steady in 2022.
Granted I'm painting with a broad brush as not all defense stocks have been slow and steady RTX and LMT look much like CAT. And I'm sure there are some industrial stocks that have been more steady.
I'm heavy Banks, too heavy probably, and they've been terrible in 2022, so maybe a bounce back there.
I'm too heavy into energy as well as that run has fizzled. Some of it has been good like SLB, some not so good, recent purchase of CCJ is down 10%.
EV and derivative plays. I own MP, I sold puts on TSLA and LTHM, might look for some charging options.
Yes, industrials ran up with the Dow, but gave some back over the past week or two. I have UXI and DIG on my watch list in case the level looks attractive for a trade. Overall, I'm still mostly focused on HC and biotech.
In other news, I have been doing money/finance lessons with my 10-year old (which coincides with her first financial literacy class at her school). We are now in the save/invest section! :)
We are setting up a $1K account and she selected the following stocks:
Apple
Google (because of YouTube)
Disney
Roblox
Chipotle
McDonalds
Starbucks
$100 each and then $300 in VTI. We are also setting up a $1K 1-year CD to track and compare everything. She's very excited about her account. Just wait until she learns about leverage! J/K.
😜
I can only imagine the poor child’s anxiety when you teach her about taxes
We covered the basics of "Spend", which includes budgeting and bills. However, we avoided taxes and used net income for a starting point! Let the child be a child. :)
Good plan! It’s never too early to start educating the kids. I invested some money when the kids were born (now 27) and they both added to it as they were able (as did I). I picked some Vanguard funds and let them pick a few individual stocks that they could follow and learn from. They’ve done quite well over the years. We regularly talked (and talk) about the markets, companies, possible pitfalls of leverage, benefits of diversification, asset allocation and location, investment “fads” that are hot for awhile but often fad if the fundamentals don’t eventually support the price, etc.If there was a silver longing regarding Covid, it was the opportunity to learn to not get caught up in “flavors of the week” may not be sustainable
Load the truck like getting a job at Amazon 😀?
I wish we could set-up Roth IRAs for children regardless of earned income. That would be a revolutionary change for retirement and financial security. Using a taxable account is okay, but the benefits of an IRA at that age are massive.
Probably a good idea. AMZN is undervalued. From Morningstar:
Fair Value and Profit Drivers
Our fair value estimate for Amazon is $150 per share, which implies a 2022 enterprise value to sales multiple of 3 times and a 0.5% free cash flow yield. We think multiples are a little less meaningful for Amazon given the ongoing heavy investment and rapid scaling that depresses financial performance. However, we expect the company to significantly grow its free cash flow as it matures.
Over the long term, we expect e-commerce to continue to take share from brick-and-mortar retailers. We further expect Amazon to gain share online. We believe that over the medium term, COVID-19 pulled forward some demand by changing consumer behavior and better penetrating some retail categories, such as groceries, pharmacy, and luxury goods, that previously had not gained as much traction online. We think Prime subscriptions and the accompanying benefits, combined with selection, price, and convenience continue to drive the retail story. We also see international as being a longer-term opportunity within retail. We model total retail-related revenue growing at a 7% compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, over the next five years.
We believe the critical growth drivers over the medium term will be AWS and advertising. Since these segments earn materially higher margins than the rest of the business, we also expect them to drive margins higher over time. Over the next five years, we project AWS revenue growing at a 22% CAGR and advertising revenue growing at a 20% CAGR. In total, Amazon should grow at a 10% CAGR through 2026.
Our near-term forecast includes a gradual easing of some COVID-19-related expenses, which totaled more than $10 billion in 2021, with ripple effects lingering throughout 2022. We model GAAP operating margin expanding from 5% (actual) in 2021 to 6% in 2026.
This is the kind of confirmation bias I’m looking for! In 500 shares at 92.78 and 5 Jan 20 2023 calls @ $90 strike
Will add another couple hundred to the shares if I’m out of the money on those options come Jan 20…with an exit date of summertime to take some half or more off the table and reallocate…
To quote Sinatra … if nothings shaking come this here July, I will roll right up in a big ballllll anddddddddd dieeeeeeeee
Agreed, but the Roth’s you set up for you can pass onto your kids, assuming you don’t need the money in the meantime. My Roth’s will, I hope/expect, not be used by me but will pass onto the kids. You’re right, though, it’d be nice to be able to set up the kids’ Roth’s early on. My kids are doing Roth’s early on.
You are missing the important lesson. Work for your money. Giving your kids money isn’t going to teach them much.
Go big or go home!!!!! :)
Amazon Single-Stock Leveraged ETFs | Direxion | AMZU AMZD
The Direxion Daily AMZN Bull 1.5X (AMZU) and Bear 1X (AMZD) Shares seek daily investment results of 150% and 100% of the inverse (or opposite) of the performance of the common shares of Amazon.com, Inc.
www.direxion.com
Yeah, I love the set it and forget it dynamic of a separate account for my daughter. However, via inheritance is good as well, even though we get screwed with the 10 year time limit for withdrawals.
Totally agree. My kids are very hard workers and don’t spend the significant amount they have invested (other than having paid for their college with the funds). They know they will at some point inherent significant sums but are more fiscally responsible than most people I know.
Teaching them about your hard work and the hard work of their grandparents/past generations is key for putting inheritance in context. It's a blessing, but also a responsibility.
Well... the kiddies don't have to spend those withdrawals.
The segment about inflation is a home run. Gas prices have dropped about 50% in the past 5 months. Using CPI YoY metrics, energy is still positive and inflating. LOL! That's the BS of all BS. FYI, the shelter lag is a bit different because there is a systemic issue on how the data itself is collected. This energy example highlights the stupidity of the math.
Anyone that uses YoY math to cite current inflation (let alone use it for forward looking policy) is truly a moron.
I'm not against using YOY as it provides a bigger picture.
The MOM may show a one month decrease in an overall upward trend.
Conversely it could tick up in a downward trend.
But I do agree it doesn't provide the whole picture. Need both.
Tom Lee cites using QoQ, which makes perfect sense. This is how businesses and markets digest earnings.
Make sure to watch from 34:30 onwards for a few mins. They discuss how the market bottoms way, way before earnings bottom (on average, 11 months before). Great chart. The market front runs.
TSLS will give you a quick -1x play on TSLA. Perhaps in the new year, I will finally learn about options. LOL!
I'm off this week and next, so I have been researching and planning for 2023.
Interesting company. It was hot early in the year and soared into the 30s. Came back a ton since then. Solid revenue and earnings. Seems like a company very tied to the health of the US economy.
P/E of 3x.
Earning were expected to come down, but with this news today:
"Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) shares moved up by 2.3% in premarket trades after the steel maker said it will achieve higher annual fixed prices for steel in the calendar year 2023. Cleveland-Cliffs also expects "significantly lower" steelmaking unit costs in 2023 compared to 2022. Cleveland-Cliffs projected an average selling price of approximately $1,400 per net ton in 2023, up from $1,300 per net ton in 2022. Fixed-price contracts are expected to make up 40% to 45% of the company's steel volumes sold in 2023. The company has also recently announced price increases on spot steel sales. The stock rose 5% on Wednesday and is down 30.5% in 2022, compared to an 18.6% drop by the S&P 500"
I wonder if the projected earnings are undersellin.
Whenever the market overreacts to one company, likely a short-term bounce will happen (especially in that particular sector or subsector).
TSLA doubling discounts adding to the idea that demand is weak.
TSLA down to $126, which starts to sound cheapish........unless those fwd projections prove inflated.
Tesla is in trouble. dynamic Pricing model doesn’t work long term for auto sales. Especially if you are trying to achieve volume growth.
I read the other day that ARKK still has positive inflows for the year. The amount of capital destruction she has done is amazing. ARKK now trading just over $30 from a high in the $130's.
