No idea, have you heard about demand lately? What is the current wait list? I know someone who just got a Tesla and he waited 9 months. Obviously, that experience is a bit out dated.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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I have friends reaching out to me asking if TSLA is going to $0. That's the type of fear that I look for at the end of a down leg. I wouldn't be surprised if TSLA gets a bounce back up to 140 from this 125.
Not close to the index lows yet. Bears may be having their last gasp as inflation continues to crater. As for TSLA, I still think most of the drop has been due to Elon being Elon.
Most of the drop? As in from $400 to $125? You could not be more wrong. Perhaps you want to clarify?
Tesla is running a special on existing inventory (no wait). Must take delivery by year end. Tesla need to show 50% YOY growth.
ETA you can tell your friend that you can buy one with no wait and pay $7,500 less than him or her
Yes, when did Elon make the offer for Twitter, get forced to buy it, started selling TSLA hand over fist, and then started to get political via Twitter pissing off a large portion of the population? I haven't looked back and mapped it out, but Elon has been the biggest problem. China being #2.
If it is just an end of year push, no big deal. If such incentives continue into Jan and Feb, then there is definitely a problem!
Ask your friend if it’s a big deal. It’s like me shopping at Nordstrom. Why pay full price when I can wait for their big sale.
Ok, we disagree on many things and I agree with you on others. However, this statement above is outrageous. I would love to hear your thoughts on why AMZN is down 55%. Elon effect?
I’m sure you’d agree that the macro environment would have an adverse affect on TSLA as well. It’s also foolish to ignore that TSLA positioned itself as a tech innovator and the stock was priced as such. Unfortunately TSLA has not delivered. Now, I’ll agree with you that Twitter is a distraction, but TSLA has a team on hundreds of skilled software and chip engineers who’ve been given their marching orders. They’re just not there yet. If TSLA can not deliver the tech they promised, then they are nothing more than another car maker and should be priced as such. Now, I haven’t even mentioned China demand, this may be a bigger problem and has nothing to do with Elon’s woke war.
From Morningstar (who historically has been a TSLA bear) - fair market value and the impact of Elon selling.
Maintaining $250 FVE for Tesla as SEC Filings Show Musk Sold More Shares; Stock Undervalued
Analyst Note | Dec 15, 2022
On Dec. 14 after the market close, Tesla SEC filings revealed that CEO Elon Musk sold nearly 22 million shares from Dec. 12 through Dec. 14. The shares sold were worth $3.58 billion, and the proceeds will probably be used to supply additional funds to Twitter, which Musk acquired in late October.
During those three trading days when Musk was selling, the stock was down over 12% from the Dec. 9 closing price, while the Morningstar US Market Total Return Index was up roughly 1.6% for the same period. With no company-specific news other than Musk's stock sales, we see no reason to change our Tesla forecast. As such, we maintain our $250 fair value estimate and narrow moat rating.
At current prices, we view Tesla shares as undervalued, trading in 4-star territory. We see two key market concerns that are likely weighing on the stock. First, Musk's funding of Twitter could continue to affect Tesla shares, since some potential investors may want to avoid the stock while it is still unclear whether Musk may need to sell more shares. This overhang could continue until Musk assures the market that Twitter has permanent financing secured and no longer needs additional investment capital. We think this probably includes a new Twitter CEO being named, which would allow Musk to spend more time managing Tesla.
Second, we think the market is concerned that a near-term global economic slowdown and the reduction of electric vehicle subsidies in key markets such as China and some EU countries will hurt demand for Tesla's cars. However, Tesla should benefit from the U.S. federal subsidy for its Model 3 vehicle as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act. Given this and the company's relatively small volume of 1.2 million deliveries on a trailing 12-month basis, there is still likely to be strong demand even in an economic slowdown. We continue to forecast that Tesla will deliver nearly 1.4 million and 2.1 million vehicles in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Funny that you are using Morningstar for Tesla now but not when they were saying it was massively overvalued. If you did, would’ve made big $
2TK I rather you read whatever publications you follow and tell us what you have concluded. Those articles just bore me. As for morningstar, let's just say, they are less than accurate. They even say so themselves. That being said, I'm a TSLA fan. They're just going through a rough patch. For anyone who believes in the company, this will be a great opportunity. For others, well, there could be a lot of regrets.
Steve Weis was on halftime today saying the same regarding Tesla being priced like the other car companies not like a tech company. Now he was right that unlike tech, especially softwar, making cars is very cost intensive and margins are much slimmer.
But unlike the legacy car companies with multiples in the single digits Tesla has had massive revenue and eps growth in recent years.
As long as TSLA keeps growing while the legacies remain flat, TSLA will have, and should have, a higher multiple.
Scott Minerd, the Guggenheim Partners chief investment officer who was regarded as one of the kings of the bond market during its four-decade bull run, has died. He was 63.
Minerd died Wednesday at his home in Rancho Santa Fe, California, after suffering a heart attack during his regular workout. Guggenheim confirmed his death in a statement
Minerd died Wednesday at his home in Rancho Santa Fe, California, after suffering a heart attack during his regular workout. Guggenheim confirmed his death in a statement
Recent data suggests otherwise. Inflation is falling like a rock and has been negative QoQ if you use real-time shelter data.
A massive seller puts immense downward pressure on price. That's what the data says. During the 3 days of selling, the S&P was down ~5% (IIRC). That does not help.
TSLA needs to deliver the tech, they've hit obstacles, but they are still miles ahead of the competition.
He should walk away from Twitter like someone would do with a 1994 Volvo broken down on the cross bronx
And yet another inflation reading comes in light. Anyone see a trend?
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% last month after climbing 0.4% in October. In the 12 months through November, the PCE price index increased 5.5% after advancing 6.1% in October.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index gained 0.2% after increasing 0.3% in October. The so-called core PCE price index rose 4.7% on a year-on-year basis in November after increasing 5.0% in October.
The Fed tracks the PCE price indexes for monetary policy. Other inflation measures have also shown signs of slowing.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% last month after climbing 0.4% in October. In the 12 months through November, the PCE price index increased 5.5% after advancing 6.1% in October.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index gained 0.2% after increasing 0.3% in October. The so-called core PCE price index rose 4.7% on a year-on-year basis in November after increasing 5.0% in October.
The Fed tracks the PCE price indexes for monetary policy. Other inflation measures have also shown signs of slowing.
I saw that Q3 Real GDP was upward reported at 3.2% yet when I use the actual numbers provided I get 1.9% ? 20,054.6 Q3.22 / 19,672.6 Q3.21
Real Gross Domestic Product
View the annual rate of economic output, or the inflation-adjusted value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.
fred.stlouisfed.org
Either way only the Fed would use something from 3-6 months prior (July-Sept) to further adjust future steering that still lags the previous turns. If these guys worked for NASA every rocket would likely crash.
They need to just shut up and take a breath for a bit.
You still buying these particularly AMZN $83ish right now & APPL $130 right now? Im surprised that Amazon has dropped as low as it did
Big +1I saw that Q3 Real GDP was upward reported at 3.2% yet when I use the actual numbers provided I get 1.9% ? 20,054.6 Q3.22 / 19,672.6 Q3.21
Real Gross Domestic Product
View the annual rate of economic output, or the inflation-adjusted value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.fred.stlouisfed.org
Either way only the Fed would use something from 3-6 months prior (July-Sept) to further adjust future steering that still lags the previous turns. If these guys worked for NASA every rocket would likely crash.
They need to just shut up and take a breath for a bit.
Time for the Fed to shut up and be patient. Watch what happens over the next 3 months. Pause for the late Jan meeting and reassess in March.
Looks like China's ZERO Covid policy is dead and gone. Estimates that 37m Chinese residents were inflected in just a few days. Omicron will rip through the pop, but help build up protection from future waves.
Good for China staying fully open? Hope so. Perhaps a China index trade? :)
Good for China staying fully open? Hope so. Perhaps a China index trade? :)
The bond market will tell you all you need to know. Keep an eye on TLT. The run looks to be over (92 to 110) now back to 102. This pressure on bond prices means only one thing, yields are going higher. Merry Christmas everyone.
The bond market has been wrecked this year, crazy to see. Worse than the Dow and even similar to the S&P at some points during the year. I'm not a bond guy, but there seems to be an opportunity here. Come down way too much to be sustainable.
Looking forward to 2023! Going to use next week to reallocation and adjust as needed.
I got out of the most of my techs last month I believe when the market went up. I only had about 100 shares of them and now hold about only 25-50 shares of AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, and MSFT. I sold most of my equities a while back when they started to say market going down in 2023 due to earnings. I have been buying more short term CD and treasuries about 40% of my assets but willing to move to 60-70% because it nice not watching the market. I will see around the first qtr 2023. I did buy a little more AMZN 83 and AAPL 131 this week. I still expect them to fall further.
That’s why I ‘m glad I’m a trader and don’t feel bad when I sell. I would have been killed with big losses if I held those stocks. I only have a small loss since I probably in at 5-10% of stocks.
