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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

T2Kplus20 said:
About 65% say 0.25, but 35% say zero (which is increasing).
www.investing.com

Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com

Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.
www.investing.com www.investing.com

Best thing about 2023.....Bullard is not a voting member anymore! He's irrelevant. LOL.
Click to expand...
Bullard gone will definitely help. I would rather have the market expect a higher rate increase and be pleasantly surprised with the something less. I'm just not sure we'll get that on Feb 1.
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
By the way, there is a growing story out there that the Fed didn't need to do anything about inflation. Essentially, the transitory story was right only that additional COVID variants (delta and omicron) and Putin delayed inflation from normalizing. This makes a lot of sense. Inflation is due to COVID, lockdowns, excess gov spending, and Putin. As all these things resolve, inflation is coming down like a rock and is now gone. Inflation peaked and started to come down prior to Fed jacking rates.
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Putin had nothing to do with inflation and if so, it was less than half a percent per blackrock research 6mos ago. that was buried by the way, interesting that they now have the loan package should the ukies survive
 
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Saw projections estimating ten year Treasuries will reach a peak of 4.18 % in
July 2023, and the 30-year at 4.21%. I believe this is based on a Fed terminal rate of 5%.
 
RUinPinehurst said:
Saw projections estimating ten year Treasuries will reach a peak of 4.18 % in
July 2023, and the 30-year at 4.21%. I believe this is based on a Fed terminal rate of 5%.
Click to expand...
I've been waiting to see if 5-year CDs reach 5% with Ally or Capital One. A lot of our cash is just in online savings now waiting for the Fed to top out. Don't think we will get there. I assume with another 0.25% hike in 2 weeks, those rate will at least get north of 4.5%. Likely will have to accept that and buy in.

As for the 10-year, it dropped to 3.4% and the 2-year is now way below the Fed funds rate. Huge middle finger to the Fed by the bond market. LOL!
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
I've been waiting to see if 5-year CDs reach 5% with Ally or Capital One. A lot of our cash is just in online savings now waiting for the Fed to top out. Don't think we will get there. I assume with another 0.25% hike in 2 weeks, those rate will at least get north of 4.5%. Likely will have to accept that and buy in.

As for the 10-year, it dropped to 3.4% and the 2-year is now way below the Fed funds rate. Huge middle finger to the Fed by the bond market. LOL!
Click to expand...
Why would the 5yr CD hit 5%? Do you see where the 5yr tsy is? The bond market thinks short term rates will peak around 5% for the next 2 years and fall after. Seems like they got the msg from the Fed. What you are missing is that the bond market is telling you a recession is coming. Inverted curve = recession.
 
jtung230 said:
Why would the 5yr CD hit 5%? Do you see where the 5yr tsy is? The bond market thinks short term rates will peak around 5% for the next 2 years and fall after. Seems like they got the msg from the Fed. What you are missing is that the bond market is telling you a recession is coming. Inverted curve = recession.
Click to expand...
And a new market bottom....
 
Not a fan of Fed policy, but this seems spot on.

Waller said:

“The market has a a very optimistic view that inflation is just going to melt away. The immaculate disinflation is going to occur,” he told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a question-and-answer session after the speech. “We have a different view. Inflation’s not just going to miraculously melt away. It’s going to be a slower, harder slog to get inflation down and therefore we have to keep rates higher for longer and not start cutting rates by the end of the year.”
 
Goo said:
Not a fan of Fed policy, but this seems spot on.

Waller said:

“The market has a a very optimistic view that inflation is just going to melt away. The immaculate disinflation is going to occur,” he told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a question-and-answer session after the speech. “We have a different view. Inflation’s not just going to miraculously melt away. It’s going to be a slower, harder slog to get inflation down and therefore we have to keep rates higher for longer and not start cutting rates by the end of the year.”
Click to expand...
The Fed would rather over correct than allow for inflation to creep back up.
 
Goo said:
Not a fan of Fed policy, but this seems spot on.

Waller said:

“The market has a a very optimistic view that inflation is just going to melt away. The immaculate disinflation is going to occur,” he told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a question-and-answer session after the speech. “We have a different view. Inflation’s not just going to miraculously melt away. It’s going to be a slower, harder slog to get inflation down and therefore we have to keep rates higher for longer and not start cutting rates by the end of the year.”
Click to expand...
QoQ inflation is already negative. Not just under 2%, literally negative. The market knows and now the Fed is caving to it. Plan accordingly.
 
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It’s still up +6.5% higher than last year which was already at elevated levels. The rate of of inflation is slowing though.
 
RU-Hunter said:
It’s still up +6.5% higher than last year which was already at elevated levels. The rate of of inflation is slowing though.
Click to expand...
Citing YoY is moronic. Sorry it is. The Fed royally f'ed up in 2021 when inflation was raging due to the YoY math lag (which at the time was saying inflation was still low).

Also, the CPI shelter metric is garbage and still uses data from BEFORE the Fed started raising rates. Think about that stupidity for a while. LOL!

QoQ inflation is negative. Facts are facts.
 
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Now if we could just get those damn EGG prices back down to $3 bucks a dozen LOL. Damn bird flu!

https://www.foxla.com/news/rent-a-chicken-rental-service-los-angeles-soaring-egg-prices


white-chicken-medical-mask-during-260nw-1714795993.jpg
 
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Cal-Maine Foods controls 20% of the retail egg market and reported quarterly that it's sales were up 110% and gross profits up more than 600% over the same quarter in the prior fiscal year, according to a late December filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Time to crack open "Big Egg" and send them scrambling.
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
Citing YoY is moronic. Sorry it is. The Fed royally f'ed up in 2021 when inflation was raging due to the YoY math lag (which at the time was saying inflation was still low).

Also, the CPI shelter metric is garbage and still uses data from BEFORE the Fed started raising rates. Think about that stupidity for a while. LOL!

QoQ inflation is negative. Facts are facts.
Click to expand...
I don’t disagree but that’s what the Fed is looking at and they want that down to 2% unless we get high levels of unemployment which hasn’t happened yet.
 
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RUinPinehurst said:
Cal-Maine Foods controls 20% of the retail egg market and reported quarterly that it's sales were up 110% and gross profits up more than 600% over the same quarter in the prior fiscal year, according to a late December filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Time to crack open "Big Egg" and send them scrambling.
Click to expand...
Haha egg-cell ent idea!
 
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FastMJ said:
Now if we could just get those damn EGG prices back down to $3 bucks a dozen LOL. Damn bird flu!

https://www.foxla.com/news/rent-a-chicken-rental-service-los-angeles-soaring-egg-prices


white-chicken-medical-mask-during-260nw-1714795993.jpg
Click to expand...
HA! HA! Great photo. Eggs/bird flu is a nice summary of this round of inflation. It's not because of any Fed issues that rates can address. It was about COVID, lockdowns, excessive gov spending, Putin, bird flu, etc. Thankfully, most of these big things have resolved and so has inflation.
 
RU-Hunter said:
I don’t disagree but that’s what the Fed is looking at and they want that down to 2% unless we get high levels of unemployment which hasn’t happened yet.
Click to expand...
Agreed, but you are starting to see cracks in the Fed and their awful understanding of simple math.

Recent speech by Harker:

"Survey data are an important tool in the economic business. At the Fed, we look at everything from big broad numbers like GDP and employment growth to more granular figures like restaurant reservations and mobility data. These data — hard data — tell us a lot.

But as a policymaker, I’ve come to believe that soft data like survey results are perhaps equally important to getting a full understanding of our economic situation. Candidly, an overemphasis on hard data can lead to policy errors; last year, hard data suggested to us that inflation would be “transitory,” whereas the soft data we were hearing from our contacts indicated that rising prices were proving more persistent than we may have expected. Which is to say, paying due attention to soft data is vitally important to effective policymaking."

www.philadelphiafed.org

Survey Results on Economic Conditions

The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia | Philadelphia, PA
www.philadelphiafed.org www.philadelphiafed.org

Amen! This is a nice step forward and I'm optimistic that with Bullard getting the boot in 2023 (no vote) and Goolsbee (pragmatic with political experience) coming in, the Fed is learning from their mistakes. The market is right. The market understands that data better than the Fed. The Fed needs to catch up with how they use data.
 
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RUinPinehurst said:
Cal-Maine Foods controls 20% of the retail egg market and reported quarterly that it's sales were up 110% and gross profits up more than 600% over the same quarter in the prior fiscal year, according to a late December filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Time to crack open "Big Egg" and send them scrambling.
Click to expand...

Paid $3.59 yesterday at ShopRite for a dozen large brown. White were $4.19..
 
Goo said:
Time to walk back my concerns on BTC. This move has legs. Will reassess at 25k/28k.
Click to expand...
Need to stay disciplined, set levels to jump back in at under $20k for BTC and under $1500 for ETH. Let's see how the week goes.

On-chain data shows the # of BTC on exchanges is decreasing (which is normally a bullish sign).
 
I thought Q2 was going to be the move, but looks like it’s coming a little early. Will be interesting to see if it sticks, but I don’t think we see below $20k anytime soon. 2024 will begin the next big crypto bull run and an AI craze will kickstart it, maybe as early as this year.
 
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