OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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I have thought of that. I followed gbtc a little. It looks safer but I don't think it has as much upside.
My main concern is the storage of BTC. I don't want a ftx situation.
Davos. Where the glitterati can fly their private jets to berate us about our carbon footprints.
I'm not telling anyone yes or no (and i don't think you were either). GBTC is certainly an avenue for coin investment- but it's been below NAV and has shown it doesn't actually follow BTC on any sort of consistent 1:1 basis during many recent market disruptions.
anyone looking at it... be sure u understand what you are getting into...
The simplest method for BTC exposure is probably BITO (Proshares Bitcoin Futures ETF). Seems to move pretty in sync with BTC.
Truth. They screwed the pooch in 2021 when there was legit inflation and now screwing the pooch on being tough when inflation is gone. All because those morons don't understand the data they are looking at.
we can agree to disagree...
Inflation is not "gone" IMO. going from 9.5% to 6.5% is great..
6.5% is still A LOT of inflation.
fixing supply chains was easy-the rest is hard. people keep acting like 5% is 2%.. it's not.
there's still over $1.5 trillion of pre-pandemic savings sitting in accounts. Wages are still up, unemployment is still low.. wage-price spiral is real. expecting ex-Rents to improve is fine-but it hasn't yet. energy prices have been better-but can flip on a dime. people over-reacting to +/- 0.08% Core over 2Qs is silly... Inflation is a tax on the poor and fixed incomes... as much as we all like up-up-up on earning/returns... The Fed is right to crush inflation (even tho they were late and now need to do much more than than they would have if they were early (and DC didnt pump even more money).
You can hate him (I'm not a huge fan)... but, Powell is the last adult left in the room.
to those (not you) wanting him to make money free again - because it was easy when money was free - is a weak argument.
not to mention.... 5% interest rates? lolz... that should be easy to deal with... for 200 years that was considered low....
Inflation is not "gone" IMO. going from 9.5% to 6.5% is great..
6.5% is still A LOT of inflation.
fixing supply chains was easy-the rest is hard. people keep acting like 5% is 2%.. it's not.
there's still over $1.5 trillion of pre-pandemic savings sitting in accounts. Wages are still up, unemployment is still low.. wage-price spiral is real. expecting ex-Rents to improve is fine-but it hasn't yet. energy prices have been better-but can flip on a dime. people over-reacting to +/- 0.08% Core over 2Qs is silly... Inflation is a tax on the poor and fixed incomes... as much as we all like up-up-up on earning/returns... The Fed is right to crush inflation (even tho they were late and now need to do much more than than they would have if they were early (and DC didnt pump even more money).
You can hate him (I'm not a huge fan)... but, Powell is the last adult left in the room.
to those (not you) wanting him to make money free again - because it was easy when money was free - is a weak argument.
not to mention.... 5% interest rates? lolz... that should be easy to deal with... for 200 years that was considered low....
The YoY metric is moronic and measures the way past. Also, CPI housing is double moronic. Do you know that the CPI housing metric uses data from BEFORE the Fed started tightening last March? Yeah. Think about that one for a while.
Using current shelter data like Case Shiller, QoQ headline CPI and core CPI is negative. Inflation is gone and the market knows this.
Inflation hasn't averaged over 6.0 since 1982 (when numbers were more honest)
Historical Inflation Rates: 1914-2024
The table displays historical inflation rates with annual figures from 1914 to the present. These inflation rates are calculated using the Consumer Price Index, which is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor. The latest BLS data, covering up to...
www.usinflationcalculator.com
I'm referring to their recent announcement regarding banks and climate change. amazing that educated people can be so devoid of rational thought
Buy now, nice and cheap:
www.morningstar.com
3 Top Growth Stocks to Buy and Hold in 2023
The long-term outlooks for these companies solid—and their stocks are cheap.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
For the people who are far smarter than I.
1) What will the boj decision do to treasury yields?
2) how often does the boj meet for these kind of announcements?
3) what effect if any will this have in the US on our markets/inflation/yields etc
1) What will the boj decision do to treasury yields?
2) how often does the boj meet for these kind of announcements?
3) what effect if any will this have in the US on our markets/inflation/yields etc
Likely not much, but I did see our 10y dip below 3.5% in after hours.
Japan's own 10-year govt bond is at .43%. With that, the Japanese are heavily incentivised to buy US Treasuries. I believe they still are the #1 foreign consumer of US Treasuries.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Yes, as it was explained to:
“It works like this: Investors borrow in Japan at 0% interest, then use that loan to buy US treasuries at 5% interest. They make a profit and, in turn, lower US yields, rates, and increases stock prices (theoretically).
But if the Bank of Japan is forced to start selling US treasuries to maintain it policy, the whole thing blows up and there could be a painful unwind.
Then, you know, your kids don’t go to college and they repossess your Bentley.”
Holy Crap. PPI fell -0.5% last month!!!!! Expectations were only -0.1%. PPI is a leading indicator for CPI.
Inflation is officially dead as a doornail. The Fed is risking massive deflation if you don't start cutting soon (a pause may not be enough anymore).
Down goes food:
The final demand food index also fell, declining 1.2%.
Everything plummeted. And a downward revision on the prior read.
Inflation is officially dead as a doornail. The Fed is risking massive deflation if you don't start cutting soon (a pause may not be enough anymore).
Down goes food:
The final demand food index also fell, declining 1.2%.
Everything plummeted. And a downward revision on the prior read.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
SoCal is right, that GBTC doesn't track 1:1 and is currently at a discount, but that may mean GBTC has more potential upside. Also factor in GBTC perhaps eventually becoming a true ETF, so again potential upside. Maybe's to both though.
I've played BTC both directly through Coinbase, and indirectly via various stock options(miners like RIOT and MARA, Microstrategy is another way to gain exposure). Done much better with the latter, mostly because of timing, but Coin charges fairly big fee's. Though that is more of an issue if you plan to trade.
Thought this was interesting regarding inflation:
To investors,
Finance and investing is based on numbers. Those numbers are used to create metrics. Metrics are put into models, which are used to create insights. Investors take the insights and make directional bets in the market based on their expectation of how the future will unfold.
But what happens when people disagree on math?
That may seem like an absurd question to pose, but let me explain. The Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are actively engaged in a battle to get inflation under control. What exactly is inflation? It is a mathematical measurement of numbers and metrics.
To be specific — inflation is “a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money” that is traditionally measured in year-over-year change.
While you wouldn’t think that math would become controversial, the inflation measurement has long been debated. There is the macro argument of whether inflation should be calculated as a simple year-over-year change of prices (as it was before 1980s) or if inflation should be measured using a weighted basket of goods that is changed based on complex calculations (as it is done today).
The difference between these two strategies creates a very different picture of inflation, which is illustrated here.
The blue line is the old way of calculating inflation and the red line is the more modern way. Rather than debate the merits of each approach, I want to simply highlight that there is debate over how to calculate inflation through different methodology. This difference would currently produce one inflation number that is close to 14% and another that is closer to 6%. Obviously that is a big gap.
But the inflation debate over numbers, metrics, models, and insights doesn’t stop there. The nuanced debates around inflation can be even more intense. Most people in financial markets have given up on the macro argument of new vs old methodology, so the new battle ground is on various details of the modern methodology.
For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has recently announced that they are changing the methodology for calculating inflation. It isn’t a big change, which is why you probably haven’t heard about it, but the small changes could actually be more dangerous in a high inflation environment.
Over the last few years, the BLS has updated their weighted basket based on the trailing two years of data. The organization is now going to update the weighted basket based on only one year of trailing data. This may sound like super nuanced, nerdy inflation methodology talk — and it is to a degree — but the impact could be profound.
It is highly likely that this change to the calculation of the weighted basket, and subsequently inflation, will begin to reduce the official inflation numbers. In layman terms, this change will make it appear that the central bank is more successful in their fight against inflation than if they used the old calculation.
If that theory is correct, there are two major ramifications — first, the average citizen will be unaware of the higher than reported inflation that is actually persistent in the economy, and second, the Fed will probably pivot away from hiking interest rates faster than they would otherwise. I will leave it to others to debate whether these ramifications are good or bad.
My main point here is less about this change being a positive or negative development. Rather it is shocking to me that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is changing the calculation for one of the most important financial data points while we are actively facing a high inflation environment.
Imagine if you sat down to take a test in school and when you didn’t like a question, you could simply change the question with enough nuance to be able to answer it how you saw fit. That is essentially what is happening here. The Fed is being tested by inflation and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (reportedly a separate organization) is changing the test questions in real-time.
Maybe this will work out better or maybe not. My concern is really around the fact that any comparison of inflation over the last three years will begin to be distorted because the “inflation metric” is not going to be the same thing as the BLS continues to make these dynamic changes.
Math works because everyone agrees that 1 + 1 = 2. The consensus around numbers and metrics are important. Agreement on calculations or methodologies are just as important. But here we have an organization unilaterally changing the methodology to metrics that trillions of dollars are being waged on.
As we all know, it is hard to make good decisions with bad data. Does this change to the weighted basket make the data bad? Frankly, I don’t know. You could argue it is a positive or negative development. But I question how many people who see the CPI number each month in the headlines even know that the calculation is changing. How many people even know the BLS has the ability to change the methodology on a month-to-month basis? The lack of awareness, especially around the most important metric in finance at the moment, is part-surprising and part-alarming.
To investors,
Finance and investing is based on numbers. Those numbers are used to create metrics. Metrics are put into models, which are used to create insights. Investors take the insights and make directional bets in the market based on their expectation of how the future will unfold.
But what happens when people disagree on math?
That may seem like an absurd question to pose, but let me explain. The Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are actively engaged in a battle to get inflation under control. What exactly is inflation? It is a mathematical measurement of numbers and metrics.
To be specific — inflation is “a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money” that is traditionally measured in year-over-year change.
While you wouldn’t think that math would become controversial, the inflation measurement has long been debated. There is the macro argument of whether inflation should be calculated as a simple year-over-year change of prices (as it was before 1980s) or if inflation should be measured using a weighted basket of goods that is changed based on complex calculations (as it is done today).
The difference between these two strategies creates a very different picture of inflation, which is illustrated here.
|
But the inflation debate over numbers, metrics, models, and insights doesn’t stop there. The nuanced debates around inflation can be even more intense. Most people in financial markets have given up on the macro argument of new vs old methodology, so the new battle ground is on various details of the modern methodology.
For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has recently announced that they are changing the methodology for calculating inflation. It isn’t a big change, which is why you probably haven’t heard about it, but the small changes could actually be more dangerous in a high inflation environment.
Over the last few years, the BLS has updated their weighted basket based on the trailing two years of data. The organization is now going to update the weighted basket based on only one year of trailing data. This may sound like super nuanced, nerdy inflation methodology talk — and it is to a degree — but the impact could be profound.
|
If that theory is correct, there are two major ramifications — first, the average citizen will be unaware of the higher than reported inflation that is actually persistent in the economy, and second, the Fed will probably pivot away from hiking interest rates faster than they would otherwise. I will leave it to others to debate whether these ramifications are good or bad.
My main point here is less about this change being a positive or negative development. Rather it is shocking to me that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is changing the calculation for one of the most important financial data points while we are actively facing a high inflation environment.
Imagine if you sat down to take a test in school and when you didn’t like a question, you could simply change the question with enough nuance to be able to answer it how you saw fit. That is essentially what is happening here. The Fed is being tested by inflation and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (reportedly a separate organization) is changing the test questions in real-time.
Maybe this will work out better or maybe not. My concern is really around the fact that any comparison of inflation over the last three years will begin to be distorted because the “inflation metric” is not going to be the same thing as the BLS continues to make these dynamic changes.
Math works because everyone agrees that 1 + 1 = 2. The consensus around numbers and metrics are important. Agreement on calculations or methodologies are just as important. But here we have an organization unilaterally changing the methodology to metrics that trillions of dollars are being waged on.
As we all know, it is hard to make good decisions with bad data. Does this change to the weighted basket make the data bad? Frankly, I don’t know. You could argue it is a positive or negative development. But I question how many people who see the CPI number each month in the headlines even know that the calculation is changing. How many people even know the BLS has the ability to change the methodology on a month-to-month basis? The lack of awareness, especially around the most important metric in finance at the moment, is part-surprising and part-alarming.
There's a lag effect to everything the Fed did over the summer...and who is getting these 5% interest rates? There are people out there getting 7-8%.
Compare Today's 30-Year Mortgage Rates - Bankrate.com
https://www.bankrate.com › mortgages › 30-year-mort...For today, Tuesday, January 17, 2023, the current average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.41%, down 1 basis point since the same time last week.
I agree on the 5%...but that isn't where we stand and likely to go even higher unless they stop now.
Housing and rent have been deflationary for 3-4 months.
Excellent move. Cut the fat from the COVID years:
Microsoft to cut 10,000 jobs as tech layoffs intensify
Microsoft to cut 10,000 jobs as tech layoffs intensify
He f'd up in 2018 too. Had no clue how to interpret labor market data.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
With the OER lag and us already knowing what those prints will be in upcoming months, the market is pricing in more cuts than hikes in 2023. OER is what somewhere around 30% of inflation?
What? Noooooo! Take my kids, but don't take the Bentley!
Don't really like to buy puts, as it's very much a finger cross as to when the stock price could drop.
But I'm waiting to sell puts here. Even on a stock like Z which was called away last week at a $41 strike price. Figure that has hit a short term high, and I can sell puts at a lower strike for a higher premium in a week or so.
But I'm waiting to sell puts here. Even on a stock like Z which was called away last week at a $41 strike price. Figure that has hit a short term high, and I can sell puts at a lower strike for a higher premium in a week or so.
I agree, and I end up writing more puts than buying puts. Even when you get assigned, you can write calls against it immediately.
Use inverse ETFs to short, much safer. Obviously, only a few signal stock ETFs exist, but -1x, -2x, or even -3x'ing a sector or theme is quick, easy, and no margin accounts.
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KB Homes 68% cancel rate. Let’s Stay balanced.
The Fed’s ongoing housing market ‘reset’ sees buyer cancellation rate at one of the nation’s largest homebuilders spike to 68%
The Fed’s ongoing housing market ‘reset’ sees buyer cancellation rate at one of the nation’s largest homebuilders spike to 68%
