OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Bad news for bears. The economist (Campbell Harvey) that literally wrote the book on inverted yield curves and recessions is saying this time its a false flag. LOL!
www.bloomberg.com
Economist Says His Indicator That Predicted Eight US Recessions Is Wrong This Year
Economist Campbell Harvey has had a winning track record since he showed in his dissertation at the University of Chicago decades ago that the shape of the bond yield curve was linked to the path of US economic activity.
www.bloomberg.com
bond traders write the books on inverted curves; bond market has NEVER been wrong. Dont forget thatBad news for bears. The economist (Campbell Harvey) that literally wrote the book on inverted yield curves and recessions is saying this time its a false flag. LOL!
Economist Says His Indicator That Predicted Eight US Recessions Is Wrong This Year
Economist Campbell Harvey has had a winning track record since he showed in his dissertation at the University of Chicago decades ago that the shape of the bond yield curve was linked to the path of US economic activity.
The bond market was actually right. We already had the recession in H1 2022. It's over.
I wouldn't starting breaking out champagne bottle yet. Construction jobs are seeing rise in unemployment that is more than seasonal, consumption, savings, re sales, auto sales are all down. Auto delinquencies are up more than the norm etc etc etc etc...
This doesn't take into account global conditions or externalities unforeseen.
just be careful with the optimism is all
NEVER? That's a pretty big word.
"The fitted probability peaks before the beginning of each recession, with the exception of a false positive in the mid-1960s."
Not if CPI continues to drop tomorrow as expected. FYI, my custom EV ETF is rocking it! :)
Awesome JB livestream yesterday.
Lol. You realize a week in or out move does not make trend right
Bonds mkts never have been wrong
We were what 20 away on a stock that moves multiple points a day and we're not out of woods yet. 05 is another clueless wanna be
Kid stuff home's. BBBY with the double.
I'll look into buying some puts if it keeps running.
Good grief. Sounds like BBBY is going bankrupt soon. I would say short that bizatch, but the WSB crew has proven people wrong before.
LOL! Greatest Morningstar analysis ever:
Liquidity Continues To Be Key Issue in Staying Afloat at Bed Bath & Beyond; Time Running Out
Senior Equity AnalystAnalyst Note
Jan 10, 2023We see no reason to alter our $0 fair value estimate for no-moat Bed Bath & Beyond as the firm’s $500 million in liquidity at the end of its fiscal third quarter ($154 million in cash) places it on a track to bankruptcy, in our view. Bed Bath printed a third-quarter loss of $386 million, including a $100 million non-cash impairment for store-level assets. Potential upside for Bed Bath (negative 34% same-store sales), the baby brand (low-20% same-store declines), and the omnichannel (digital sales falling at a 33% pace) have waned. Now positioned for an operating margin loss of lower than 20% in fiscal 2022, we don’t see any reason for a financial buyer to take a stake in the business as is. Furthermore, the unwillingness of lenders to participate in a debt swap implies that creditors are unlikely to take on incremental financial Bed Bath risk; this should portend a bankruptcy outcome in the first half of calendar 2023.
A home furnishing peer has consistently reminded investors that companies cannot cut their way to greatness, and we contend that holds true for Bed Bath. While the company has taken extraordinary measures to reduce costs, including a plan to reduce selling, general, and administrative expenses by $500 million, we don’t think it will restore consumer interest in the brand—in our opinion, this would be the key factor driving a resurrection of the business. All else equal, if the additional $250 million of these savings is captured in fiscal 2023, we still don’t think the company will turn an operating profit. Management noted another $80 million-$100 million in corporate cost savings were identified, but we assume there will be an explicit cost with extracting such expenses, leaving any financial benefit unseen until fiscal 2024. We believe the initial pop on the Jan. 10 news stems from short interest covering, with nearly half the float outstanding sold short, rather than fundamental improvement.
Over a fairly limited period of time they have, over a longer stretch of time not so much.
I'm doubting this run will be anywhere near as pronounced as previous moves.
50 years ago today,the DOW closed at 1,051,its all time high.
It was not to see that figure again for almost 11 years.
Are we due for a repeat?
It was not to see that figure again for almost 11 years.
Are we due for a repeat?
WMT trying to take a page out of AMZN’s book? Would take a lot to move the needle for a company its size.
www.cnbc.com
Walmart strikes a deal with Salesforce to sell more of its tech to other retailers
Walmart has used its reach and e-commerce growth to make money in new ways.
I don't follow TSLA but I wouldn't say no or just write off the possibility because it's not there now or not going there with a beeline. I've mentioned similar in the past for CRM and NVDA when they much higher that they COULD get into the low 100s and they did. Same for AMZN when it was around 3000 that 2000 wasn't out of the question and it's below that now. Some others have gone below some targets I thought were possible.
It doesn't mean these things will always happen all the time but IMO it's good to have an idea of what COULD happen so you're ready for it with some sort of plan should it occur.
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Inflation turns NEGATIVE MoM for the first time since the initial pandemic shutdown. And this is even with using the garbage lagging shelter metrics.
Core CPI MoM is screaming negative if you use real-time shelter data (likely -0.3%'ish).
Life is good. Plan accordingly.
Core CPI MoM is screaming negative if you use real-time shelter data (likely -0.3%'ish).
Life is good. Plan accordingly.
TSLA was never a stock for me. Its PE was way too rich for my nature. I don't follow electric vehicles too closely but the other thing for me was what happens when the big automakers catch up. If I was buying an electric car personally, I'd prefer the Hondas/Toyotas/BMWs etc..and their dealer networks.
Like anything, I suppose it's timing. If you were lucky enough to own it on its great run and get out, good job. Is it gonna sniff anything like that run in the future? I think it would depend on something developing off its battery technology that no one else has or can recreate? I don't think car sales alone would do it.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S consumer prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December amid declining prices for gasoline and other goods, suggesting that inflation was now on a sustained downward trend.
The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month after gaining 0.1% in November, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the first decline in the CPI since May 2020, when the economy was reeling from the first wave of COVID-19 infections.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI unchanged.
The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month after gaining 0.1% in November, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the first decline in the CPI since May 2020, when the economy was reeling from the first wave of COVID-19 infections.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI unchanged.
Fidelity has a new feature where you can create your own basket (stocks and ETFs traded in the US) and manage them like an ETF. Really fun and simple. I put together an EV-focused "ETF" of 25 holdings. So far so good. :)
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Was listening to today's Market Call, and Guy Adami was theorizing that the rise in precious metals is due to the market thinking the fed is going to break something with their rate hikes.
Assuming that's a correct theory, I'd guess the same would apply here.
Could the Fed be so stupid or perhaps vindictive? With all the inflation data rolling in, that's the only explanation if the morons don't pause right now. They already raised way more than needed.
Well liz Young who was also on the show was noting that service sector inflation still remains, and that tends to be stickier then manufacturing.
This, like the JB webcasts, are another CNBC spinoff.
In general there is still a fair amount of thought that the inflation fight is not over despite the prints over the last 3-4-5 months.
Who cares? Headline and core are literally negative now (with legit shelter data). Is she going to complain next month that 1 of the 100 sub-items is still high? LOL. Let's face facts. All this inflation was due to COVID, supply chains, government overspending, and Putin. #1 and #3 are over, #2 is dramatically improving especially with China now, and #4 isn't a big deal.
The inflation fight is over without some new big event that nobody can predict. For the nervous nellies, hold at 4.25-4.50% for a few months before cutting.
The Man #2:
I miss hearing about El Salvador and Bitcoin. I hope all is well with RUaldo, haven’t seen him posting here in a while
@RUAldo last posted in Nov, but was active on the site a few weeks ago. He probably was a BTC whale and went belly up when Voyager or FTX crashed! :)
I think the idea is these sub items are like glowing embers and if you don’t completely stomp them out they can spread to other areas and the fire reignites.
Thats my analogy which i think is a really good one.
Then pause and hold for a few months. Most of the impact of the rate hikes hasn't been felt yet anyway.
Look out, the market is starting to predict the pause in 2 weeks!
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.
Likelihood of:
0.25% = 64%
No Hike = 36% (big increase)
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