How about a pause? Also, wages and the economy showing stability is a good thing when inflation is plummeting.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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In October 2021, the Fed said in meeting minutes the plan was for NO rate increases in 2022. Two months later, they became the most hawkish Fed in 20 years. Things change.
Blindly believing an organization that is never right on their projections is stupid.
The market acts irrationally, so it will respond to current expectations. If the rate comes in lighter, I believe that the market takes off and the reverse can happen as well.
I won't argue the Fed's case. Or defend their "transitory" miscalculations. But they're repeatedly telling you what they're going to do. At the end of the day, you manage your $ as you see fit.
Just like they did all of 2021. If you think they Fed already knows what they are going to do for a full year absent of incoming data, you are insane. Respectfully. :)
Another head fake? The market perfectly predicted that past 4 rate hikes. It all depends on the next CPI and PPI.
be careful with the mkt predicting fed hikes and those hikes are well telegraphed. There is very little 'prediction' going on. The last thing the Fed wants is to create uncertainty in the mkts
25 or 0. CPI MoM coming in negative next week.
50bps not even on the map anymore.
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.
50 is priced in and the FED has given zero indication of a reduction to that. They still could but today's soundbites don't sound like they are25 or 0. CPI MoM coming in negative next week.
50bps not even on the map anymore.
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.www.investing.com
Fed is already talking about protecting "vulnerable" populations. The WH spoke to Powell. 50 not going to happen unless CPI breaks trend (which almost mathematically impossible). Large increases are over.
Im doubting they pause here. A pause will make the markets, including commodities, want to run and the fed does not want that.
The Fed is in a tough place right now. They have no choice but to basically do this high wire balancing act of trying to control inflation while not pushing us into a long-term recession. People here in the cheap seats, talking about the situation like it's an easy thing they could manage better, is laughable.
Seems to me that positioning oneself to be ready to pivot quickly with investments, ideally with some cash set aside to invest quickly, makes more sense than predicting what the Fed is or isn't going to do, and then whining about it either way.
But I'm not any kind of expert investor, so what do I know.
Seems to me that positioning oneself to be ready to pivot quickly with investments, ideally with some cash set aside to invest quickly, makes more sense than predicting what the Fed is or isn't going to do, and then whining about it either way.
But I'm not any kind of expert investor, so what do I know.
Whoa whoa whoa buddy.... Logic and an understanding of history and economics will get you nowhere in this thread. So please refrain from such nonsense. The casino is open here, 24/7. And drinks are "free." Capisce?
The Fed delivered a message to the stock market: Big rallies will prolong pain
Analysts say minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting delivered an important message to investors: big stock market rallies are unwelcome.
www.marketwatch.com
it’s a fight you can’t win
Let the market run. Inflation is over. This obsession of the market going up and inflation going up is new and completely nonsensical. Look at the bull market for the last decade prior to COVID. Where was the inflation? LOL. Powell is still embarrassed for f'ing up the transitory storyline. He seems to be on a personal vendetta now. Nothing more.
The bond market gave the Fed the middle finger yesterday, even with their minions trying to talk it down. We all see the data and know what's happening.
The Fed delivered a message to the stock market: Big rallies will prolong pain
Analysts say minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting delivered an important message to investors: big stock market rallies are unwelcome.
it’s a fight you can’t win
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Tesla owners in China protest against surprise price cuts they missed
SHANGHAI (Reuters) -Hundreds of Tesla owners gathered at the automaker's showrooms and distribution centres in China over the weekend, demanding rebates and credit after sudden price cuts they said meant they had overpaid for electric cars they bought earlier. On Saturday, about 200 recent...
Tesla is in trouble. Lost pricing power and now margins will be under pressure.
it doesn't work that way, the FED will not risk the mkts imploding or having uncertainty into future actions. A 50bps hike is priced in, as it should be as housing is still too expensive and inflation is still persistent. The FED will need to telegraph a reduction in increases, they have not yet. Until they do, you simply cannot expect a reduction in rates
I'm ok with a minor recession and mkt declines this year as it's needed.
Where was the trade war, pandemic, and Russian invasion of Ukraine? Or any of the other dozens of factors brewing inflation over the years?
So if you purchased a Ibond last year do you have to wait 12 months from the purchase date or just the start of the new year (2023) in order to buy another one?
www.marketwatch.com
It's time to buy I-bonds again. Here are 3 ways to maximize your $10,000 inflation-fighting investment.
The current rate is good, but if you hold off until just before the next change, it could be even better.
www.marketwatch.com
I think it is by calendar year. So, if you bought in Dec, you can do so again in Jan. Just like IRAs.So if you purchased a Ibond last year do you have to wait 12 months from the purchase date or just the start of the new year (2023) in order to buy another one?
It's time to buy I-bonds again. Here are 3 ways to maximize your $10,000 inflation-fighting investment.
The current rate is good, but if you hold off until just before the next change, it could be even better.
Well, my managed retirement portfolio includes NEM and GOLD which have performed well and pay a dividend.
Our managed backdoor Roth IRAs have 10%'ish in a metal/materials plays. From traditional to rare (including GOLD). It's been solid for quite a while.
I sold some GOLD puts a month or so back. Made a couple %, but would have been better just being in it.
Guy Adami, called this most recent bottom, though, as he has admitted, he's been bullish for much longer then that, to no avail.
Copper's been ripping of late as well. Tim Seymour noted it hit a short term high just recently.
Yeah, not a fan of options. It you like something, buy it. If you don't, plenty of inverse ETFs to play with. I will likely do a play with UGL, AGQ, and NUGT. Also may expand my China reopening play with CWEB. Got YINN already. China is throwing their doors open, COVID be damned. Continuing news that the China gov wants business to boom, including their stock market. It's China, so we may get rug pulled again, but it likely worth a small shot.
GLD and BAR here. Been looking at BHP for a mining position in my "fun" portfolio. Lots of potential there with copper, potash, and others.
If you like something, but want it at a lower price, then you can sell the puts. And if the price doesn't come down, then you made out on the premium.
Can play it similarly to the upside too when own something whose valuation is getting rich. Sell the upside calls, and if it keeps going up, then you're selling a stock with a high valuation, if it doesn't keep going up, you again made out on the premium.
I don't really know if I'm doing that well with it, or even how well one can really do using such a strategy, but the rationale seems to make sense.
Got it! I'll learn about options sooner or later, but since I mostly invest/play with indexes and sectors, it hasn't been a big need yet.
I do this all the time and if you are about to get assigned and don’t want to you can buy to close and roll them into a later expiration date.
T2K was correct, you could theoretically buy on 12/31 and then again on 1/01 of the following year. Limit is $10K per calendar year per person so both husband and wife can buy $10K.So if you purchased a Ibond last year do you have to wait 12 months from the purchase date or just the start of the new year (2023) in order to buy another one?
It's time to buy I-bonds again. Here are 3 ways to maximize your $10,000 inflation-fighting investment.
The current rate is good, but if you hold off until just before the next change, it could be even better.
Can also buy $10K per business entity, so if one has multiple businesses, each can buy $10K. Say you have a wife, plus 2 llc’s and a C Corp, you can buy a total of $50/year.
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