OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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as I said, well balanced and diversified no but the posting listed are less than well balanced and of course, we don't know allocations
that said, I'd still be all in on energy till early Dec of last year
well like I said, need to see unemployment numbers tick up, which I believe we will see, before the Fed relents.
Again, all they simply need to do is change the requirements for reserves on revolving credit and spending stops.
Again, all they simply need to do is change the requirements for reserves on revolving credit and spending stops.
But the economy keeps trucking.
I think the Fed is wary of inflation rebounding if they let off.
Also think they are talking a tougher game then what they may actually implement.
A well balanced and diversified portfolio can help you avoid catastrophic losses but placing greater emphasis in certain sectors can let you outperform the overall market. Being overweight in energy in 2022 was a great example of this. I am staying mostly in a defensive posture until I see signs that the market has turned the corner. I am fine missing the first 1 or 2% of a rebound. In the meantime, I'll park dollars in a three month treasury earning 4.7% and avoid paying state income tax on the interest.
I imagine if your defensive you'll miss more then 1-2% of the rebound.
That would mean holding rates at current levels. They don't have to start cutting until inflation is in the 3s, but raising rates more now is asinine. Seems like they just want to hurt people and jack up unemployment.
Oil is pretty low now. Thoughts on the next 6 months? Time to use DIG for an energy play? :)
Many bears/defensive investors will miss at least 10-20% of the rebound rally by incorrectly assuming it is another bear market rally. Remember, the market will bottom and call the pivot well before the Fed announces it.
Honestly, I don't know, but a lot of folks that I trust are saying so. Tom Lee is still very bullish on energy and rightly pointed out that even as oil prices dropped, most energy stocks held up pretty well. That may bode well for the future. I have been playing with the China reopening and doing nicely so far! This will increase oil demand.
Cool been looking for a Josh Brown stream option as I have not been able to watch the Halftime as much as I used to.
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan do MarketCall (I think it's called) on Youtube as well. Those guys are great too.
But if energy is poised to go on a run, what would that do to inflation?
I'm sure that is part of the Fed's reasoning, and they know if they take their foot off the pedal, commodities rip.
I know! It's kind of like bad karma.....rooting for inflation coming down and then playing energy long. I guess it can be considered a hedge? Regardless, I am focusing on other areas right now, so I will likely pass (for now).
As a follow-up to my earlier post. Just picked up a new iPhone 14 Pro. Wow, Apple is awesome.
I am willing to miss that 1 or 2% of a rebound but there's a better chance I'll avoid another -20% drop if that happens. I am not a bear but rather just patiently waiting until I see some indications that the economy has bottomed. The market won't make up its entire rebound in one day. I'm still 50% invested and generating cash though covered calls.
Only a 1-2% miss is unrealistic. You can miss out on 3-4x times that in premarket morning trading with a good CPI report.
The average bull market can last four years, so if I miss a day, I'm not worried.
We have had about 15 of those bull days over the past year. Which one will be the right one? Hmmm.....
Sorry, not buying it.
No doubt that there's been a lot of head fakes, even with optimistic CPI reports. The market is still -5% from its highs in just December. Until I see concrete evidence of a shift from the FED, I'm good sitting on the sidelines earning nearly 5% in Treasuries and generating cash from covered call.
I was talking to a friend of mine, a brilliant mind, multiple degrees in economics, finance, business. I wanted to understand why all these talking heads, who understand business and economics, university economists, etc, are contradicting the Fed's opinion on the economy and inflation. Why doesn't the Fed think the same way? His reply enlightened me.
He said the Fed's words are just as important, if not more important, than the action the Fed takes. For instance, if the Fed raises rates by 50 basis points and then signals in their words that they won't raise rates any further and inflation is under control, it would negate whatever action they took on rates and mute the effects. Companies take action on the Fed's words as much as the rate movement, deciding whether to hire or layoff, increase or decrease capital spending, etc.
I never considered that. Something to think about though.
He said the Fed's words are just as important, if not more important, than the action the Fed takes. For instance, if the Fed raises rates by 50 basis points and then signals in their words that they won't raise rates any further and inflation is under control, it would negate whatever action they took on rates and mute the effects. Companies take action on the Fed's words as much as the rate movement, deciding whether to hire or layoff, increase or decrease capital spending, etc.
I never considered that. Something to think about though.
Completely agreed. The Fed is trying to jawbone the market and economy. However, you can only talk tough so long before people get wise to it. That's why the bond market is giving the Fed a huge middle finger. We all see the inflation data and where it is heading via leading indicators. They can talk tough all they want, but high inflation is over and has been for at least 3 months.
Amazon layoffs: ‘We still like the stock,’ analyst says
JMP Securities Equity Research Analyst Nick Jones joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the tech sector, Amazon's wave of layoffs, and the performance of Etsy stock.
+1
Amazon layoffs: ‘We still like the stock,’ analyst says
JMP Securities Equity Research Analyst Nick Jones joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the tech sector, Amazon's wave of layoffs, and the performance of Etsy stock.finance.yahoo.com
Great company, great stock. Just need to cut the excesses of 2020 & 2021.
401k trading is through my PCRA (Personal Choice Retirement Account) administered by Schwab.
Ya and thats why we heard “not even thinking about thinking about raising rates” a couple years ago.
As i say above I think they are talking tougher then they truly expect they will have to be.
I didn’t say well balanced and diversified…. I said I “have a good balance of solid companies.” I have over 50 stocks (as I mentioned) and have good representation in each sector, except for spec tech and I have a lower weighting in the “FANG” stocks compared to the S&P weighting. So, maybe a little energy heavy during the first 9 months, but for good reason.
Nice! I tried to talk my company into that since we were planning to change 401k admins. However, we moved to Fidelity since our equity plan was already with them. Good for me. I already had a rollover IRA and fun/brokerage account with them, so more account consolidation.
Wages soft, jobs continuing downward trend, services contracted. This market wants to run. Any sign of good news equals KABOOM. When the time comes, the relief rally will be violent. Be prepared.
www.cnbc.com
Stocks stage first big rally of 2023 as hope grows that inflation will ease, Dow closes up 700 points
Investors cheered two economic reports that may signal inflation is cooling off.
Does the FED still raise 25 or 50 BPS on February 1?Wages soft, jobs continuing downward trend, services contracted. This market wants to run. Any sign of good news equals KABOOM. When the time comes, the relief rally will be violent. Be prepared.
Stocks stage first big rally of 2023 as hope grows that inflation will ease, Dow closes up 700 points
Investors cheered two economic reports that may signal inflation is cooling off.
Fed on media blitz today, after the jobs report. In short, they're resolute in their commitment to trounce inflation. See:. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-...nd-the-fed-has-more-work-to-do-204709679.html
0 BPS is the right move. Be patient and wait until the March meeting. We will get 3 more months of inflation data.
But probably 25 BPS because the Fed is stupid.
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Was the Fed talking today? If they did, the stock and bond markets gave them the big middle finger! LOL. Sooner or later the markets will ignore the Fed crying wolf. We all see the inflation data.
I definitely think they will raise it.
I'm not in the T2K camp of thinking that they need to pivot now in order to avoid killing the economy. Not with the economy continuing to show strength.
But I think the need to rush to raise rates is now behind us.
I'd like to see .25
But the terminal rate is still in the range of 5.5% and it'll be kept there into '24. So whether it's via a series of 25 bps or a combo of 25 bps and 50 bps moves is irrelevant. They'll get there and hold. Ignore the Fed's plan at your portfolio's peril.
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