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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

The average stock folio is down 20%
An aggressive folio down 30%-40%
Dip buyers getting burnt for a year now.

At S&P 3k the average long holder would be down an additional 20% from here.

Covid Lows = 2196

Just numbers.
people voted for this, is what it is
 
people voted for this, is what it is
Very true. Regardless, I don't understand why so many people are whining about paper losses that are temporary. Sure, I would love for markets to go up every year, but that's not realistic.

The best time to buy over the past 20 years was March 2009. Sadly, not many had the stomach to do so and missed out.
 
Very true. Regardless, I don't understand why so many people are whining about paper losses that are temporary. Sure, I would love for markets to go up every year, but that's not realistic.

The best time to buy over the past 20 years was March 2009. Sadly, not many had the stomach to do so and missed out.
instant gratification, robinhood and crypto culture

Most of the people in the mkts are not playing with real money accounts instead only retirement accounts that don't realize losses or gains and to obsess vs move with mkt conditions is absurd. mkts change, dynamics that drive mkts change and you have to be nimble

the reality is that too many people are for the other guy, the other country and don't vote accordingly which will impact stock considerations. We should be hoping the Euro collapses, Russia continues to be an economic laggard and we absolutely should be demanding our gov't force investment in our hemisphere vs Asia as our kids and their kids will not bask in the American dream as we've known it.

times are changing
 
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instant gratification, robinhood and crypto culture

Most of the people in the mkts are not playing with real money accounts instead only retirement accounts that don't realize losses or gains and to obsess vs move with mkt conditions is absurd. mkts change, dynamics that drive mkts change and you have to be nimble

the reality is that too many people are for the other guy, the other country and don't vote accordingly which will impact stock considerations. We should be hoping the Euro collapses, Russia continues to be an economic laggard and we absolutely should be demanding our gov't force investment in our hemisphere vs Asia as our kids and their kids will not bask in the American dream as we've known it.

times are changing
Great post. Very true. I have been enjoying playing with my real money/fun account, even though it is much, much smaller than our retirement investments. It is definitely a different perspective!
 
Sounds like a "pre-pivot" announcement. 😁

But officials also acknowledged they had made "significant progress" over the past year in raising rates enough to bring inflation down. As a result, the central bank now needed to balance its fight against rising prices with the risks of slowing the economy too much and "potentially placing the largest burdens on the most vulnerable groups" through higher-than-necessary unemployment.

 
Sounds like a "pre-pivot" announcement. 😁

But officials also acknowledged they had made "significant progress" over the past year in raising rates enough to bring inflation down. As a result, the central bank now needed to balance its fight against rising prices with the risks of slowing the economy too much and "potentially placing the largest burdens on the most vulnerable groups" through higher-than-necessary unemployment.

vulnerable groups? man I wish the fed would just focus on inflation and employment like they are supposed to do.
 
vulnerable groups? man I wish the fed would just focus on inflation and employment like they are supposed to do.
Remember, Powell literally announced his hawkish pivot against inflation hours after meeting with Biden regarding his re-nomination. In 2022, it was all about being tough on inflation. Now the story is something different. We beat inflation and economic good times are here again. Just in time for the next presidential cycle. LOL!
 
Great news for shareholders. CRM had a layoff announcement as well. Don't need to horde employees anymore.
 
Great news for shareholders. CRM had a layoff announcement as well. Don't need to horde employees anymore.
At what point do we begin to see all of these layoffs show up in the monthly jobs report? We haven’t seen much of impact yet but maybe we do soon. Agree that if unemployment goes up that the Fed will have a tough time continuing rate hikes.
 
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At what point do we begin to see all of these layoffs show up in the monthly jobs report? We haven’t seen much of impact yet but maybe we do soon. Agree that if unemployment goes up that the Fed will have a tough time continuing rate hikes.
And the Fed will also have a tough time raising rates to "fight inflation" when inflation is crashing. As for the layoffs, these are announcements. Depends on when they will actually happen.
 
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At what point do we begin to see all of these layoffs show up in the monthly jobs report? We haven’t seen much of impact yet but maybe we do soon. Agree that if unemployment goes up that the Fed will have a tough time continuing rate hikes.
Despite being a huge part of the stock market Tech makes up a small % of the workforce.

Fed wants the unemployment rate to go up to stop wage inflation. That is one storyline at least.
 
Most of us did pretty much the same this year. Which makes it ironic that we argue so much! We obviously do similar things. LOL!

“Most” is the key word. My investment account was up 1.21% and my 401k, including my PCRA account (where I hold 45 individual stocks) was down 3.51%. Had a good balance of solid companies that generate earnings, along with some materials stocks in the 1st half of the year and several energy stocks.
 
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Despite being a huge part of the stock market Tech makes up a small % of the workforce.

Fed wants the unemployment rate to go up to stop wage inflation. That is one storyline at least.
More proof that the Fed is nonsensical. Who cares about wage inflation when actual inflation is going down? Wage inflation being stable when CPI is crashing is a very good thing for people.
 
“Most” is the key word. My investment account was up 1.21% and my 401k, including my PCRA account (where I hold 45 individual stocks) was down 3.51%. Had a good balance of solid companies that generate earnings, along with some materials stocks in the 1st half of the year and several energy stocks.
You forgot to mention that your account was 95% cash. LOL!
 
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At what point do we begin to see all of these layoffs show up in the monthly jobs report? We haven’t seen much of impact yet but maybe we do soon. Agree that if unemployment goes up that the Fed will have a tough time continuing rate hikes.

Depends on the state but in most states people can't file until their severance is done so that's why you are seeing some delays in the numbers.
 
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“Most” is the key word. My investment account was up 1.21% and my 401k, including my PCRA account (where I hold 45 individual stocks) was down 3.51%. Had a good balance of solid companies that generate earnings, along with some materials stocks in the 1st half of the year and several energy stocks.
you're gonna have to get us a list of these holdings because you may be the only person in the world with a positive return if it's as blended as you say.

gotta call the BS meter here
 
you're gonna have to get us a list of these holdings because you may be the only person in the world with a positive return if it's as blended as you say.

gotta call the BS meter here

Give me your phone number and l’ll text you my TDAmeritrade Chart
 
you're gonna have to get us a list of these holdings because you may be the only person in the world with a positive return if it's as blended as you say.

gotta call the BS meter here
If you held cash going into '22, bought into energy and commodities, and healthcare, your portfolio performed smartly relative to the overall bear market. Right now, Treasuries are very attractive and will likely remain so into '23. Optimization is the takeaway. Take what the market/economy offers. Fight the Fed at your own portfolio's peril.
 
you're gonna have to get us a list of these holdings because you may be the only person in the world with a positive return if it's as blended as you say.

gotta call the BS meter here

These stocks helped offset my many losers.

12-month return

AFL. +19%
BMY +16%
XOM +62%
CHV +51%
PSX +28%
SWN +19%, but traded it many times for over 100% return
KMI + 10% plus a 6% divided
JNJ. +5%
AMGN +16%
MRK +45%
GIS +23%
ENB +2% plus 6.66% divided
STLD. +55%
SHEL +20%

But no longer hold SHEL, STLD, PSX, CHV
 
If you held cash going into '22, bought into energy and commodities, and healthcare, your portfolio performed smartly relative to the overall bear market. Right now, Treasuries are very attractive and will likely remain so into '23. Optimization is the takeaway. Take what the market/economy offers. Fight the Fed at your own portfolio's peril.
The key is to position yourself to maximize the rebound rally when it comes (including pushing in new money into the bear). That's how real money is made.
 
These stocks helped offset my many losers.

12-month return

AFL. +19%
BMY +16%
XOM +62%
CHV +51%
PSX +28%
SWN +19%, but traded it many times for over 100% return
KMI + 10% plus a 6% divided
JNJ. +5%
AMGN +16%
MRK +45%
GIS +23%
ENB +2% plus 6.66% divided
STLD. +55%
SHEL +20%

But no longer hold SHEL, STLD, PSX, CHV
It‘s possible depending on the allocation but with the two accounts, overall could be zero or down, again base on allocation.
 
These stocks helped offset my many losers.

12-month return

AFL. +19%
BMY +16%
XOM +62%
CHV +51%
PSX +28%
SWN +19%, but traded it many times for over 100% return
KMI + 10% plus a 6% divided
JNJ. +5%
AMGN +16%
MRK +45%
GIS +23%
ENB +2% plus 6.66% divided
STLD. +55%
SHEL +20%

But no longer hold SHEL, STLD, PSX, CHV
All incomplete lists that exclude losers are BS. You also forgot to mention that you were mostly cash and barely invested. :)
 
All incomplete lists that exclude losers are BS. You also forgot to mention that you were mostly cash and barely invested. :)

Not sure why you are attacking me. I do have a strong cash balance in my 401K (explained below) but my PCRA portion of my 401k has had a 80-90% weighting in stocks. And I only had a -5.6% loss in 2022 in that account; well below the market due to the holdings noted above. My holdings in the rest of my 401k was decreased significantly in the 3rd quarter of 2021 given high valuations, and my pending retirement. You can easily search my post in 2021 projecting a downward trend in the market up to 30%. Regarding my non-retirement account, close to 100% was in stocks until late 2022 when I sold some losers to offset my large gains on SWN. Give me your cell number and I’ll text you my TDAmeritrade 1-year return chart.
 
Not sure why you are attacking me. I do have a strong cash balance in my 401K (explained below) but my PCRA portion of my 401k has had a 80-90% weighting in stocks. And I only had a -5.6% loss in 2022 in that account; well below the market due to the holdings noted above. My holdings in the rest of my 401k was decreased significantly in the 3rd quarter of 2021 given high valuations, and my pending retirement. You can easily search my post in 2021 projecting a downward trend in the market up to 30%. Regarding my non-retirement account, close to 100% was in stocks until late 2022 when I sold some losers to offset my large gains on SWN. Give me your cell number and I’ll text you my TDAmeritrade 1-year return chart.
Because it is fun. :)

How are you trading stocks in a 401k? Or am I misreading your posts. Gotta run to a Verizon store and feed the Apple iPhone beast. My personal cell phone of 7 years finally died! Need a replacement.
 
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More proof that the Fed is nonsensical. Who cares about wage inflation when actual inflation is going down? Wage inflation being stable when CPI is crashing is a very good thing for people.
100%. You have the fed’s statement about “worrying about vulnerable groups”. God forbid they allow wages to modestly catch up to the new price base while the CPI slowly falls in order to, you know, help those vulnerable groups.

The fed is a mess.
 
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Strong private jobs number, does interest rates goes higher?

Holding cash was a good thing in 2022.
George was on this morning and she said to expect rates to get to, and stay above 5% through 2023.

Until we see real a downward move in the economy I think that's a fine strategy. Even if the stock market suffers.
 
Silvergate taking it on the chin. Down almost 50% today.

 
100%. You have the fed’s statement about “worrying about vulnerable groups”. God forbid they allow wages to modestly catch up to the new price base while the CPI slowly falls in order to, you know, help those vulnerable groups.

The fed is a mess.
Damn straight. Wages need to catch up!
 
George was on this morning and she said to expect rates to get to, and stay above 5% through 2023.

Until we see real a downward move in the economy I think that's a fine strategy. Even if the stock market suffers.
Sounds like the Fed is just trying to be dick now and crash the economy even as inflation is plummeting. Look for the WH to intervene.
 
These stocks helped offset my many losers.

12-month return

AFL. +19%
BMY +16%
XOM +62%
CHV +51%
PSX +28%
SWN +19%, but traded it many times for over 100% return
KMI + 10% plus a 6% divided
JNJ. +5%
AMGN +16%
MRK +45%
GIS +23%
ENB +2% plus 6.66% divided
STLD. +55%
SHEL +20%

But no longer hold SHEL, STLD, PSX, CHV
good job and loving me some xom. I was on that bandwagon in the 30s and telling all here last year that energy was the way to go. You are energy heavy so not really balanced but I moved to 80% energy close to oil lows so I've no perch to bellow from:)
 
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