Sorry, just saw this. Yes, LABU has been great so far. Still building my position. Small-caps and biotech will likely lead us on the way back up. Also bought SOXL at $9.5'ish. :)
Any thoughts on NUGT and a gold play?
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Any thoughts on NUGT and a gold play?
A gold "play"? But miners and swaps? What about "patience"? Why not the gold itself? BAR. GLD. IAU. ???
Gold = Boring!
Gold Miners which is already a high beta play of gold + 2x = Now I'm Listening
If I'm going to play with some fun money, gotta get some juice for the squeeze. I'm getting very comfortable with these leveraged ETFs and banking big profit (which I then dump back into my normal investments). These are low risk high reward plays. Low risk because the money I'm risking is modest (except for my TQQQ play which is nicely in the green again).
PCE continues to drop, but in-line with expectations. MoM annualized down to 1.2%. Decreases were widespread across many categories. Housing is still a problem with PCE since it uses the same bullsh!t math as CPI. Replace that with more realistic data and MoM headline and core are well into the deflationary zone. Overall, the downward trend continues which is great news.
FYI - we have a serious jump in base effect next month. Jan 2022 inflation really popped and so did February 2022. Look for inflation decreases to accelerate in the next 2 reports. #yeah
A fairly muted response in the futures. Treasury yields up. Gives the Fed enough ammunition to do 25 BPS next week.
been saying for a while, consumer debt minus mtg is over 25% which has always led to a recession. The explosion of credit is the one are the FED can have an immediate impact on spending and inflation yet they don't do it. Fed needs to raise reserve requirement drastically, forget raising rates and just go right to revolving debt
Definitely should be zero next week with a formal pause. However, those dumbasses will likely do .25% for no logical reason.
.50bps- calling it now!
(no I doubt it.. but, it is Powell's best last chance to get the market to believe him)... the demand side of wage-price spiral is far from over - no matter what PPI plots.
LOL! Even the Fed can't be that dumb.
It's hard to claim the wage-price spiral story when wage increases have consistently been lower than inflation.
FYI - Nick T of the WSJ is starting to write pieces on a Fed pause in March and rate cuts in the summer due to inflation coming down much faster than expected. Something to think about since Nick T is the official mouthpiece of Powell. Plan accordingly.
As I have said for a long time, ignore what the Fed says, just watch the inflation data. It rules the day (whether negative or positive for the market). Not that complicated.
As I have said for a long time, ignore what the Fed says, just watch the inflation data. It rules the day (whether negative or positive for the market). Not that complicated.
China's gov to push the economy and support companies. Should be bullish for their markets:
China aims to boost consumption and imports as global demand cools
China has to boost imports, they have some of the worst land for agriculture in the world and a rapidly rising middle class that won't be working slave wages too much longer without an uprising, not to mention Xi is rapidly deteriorating psychologically in his echo chamber after getting rid of any dissenting voices. Next 10-20 years China will collapse under its own weight and if Xi decides to put a nail in his own coffin by starting a war in the Pacific, the sanctions will completely decimate their country because unlike Iran and Russia, they don't produce anywhere close to enough food to maintain their population.
Not sure if it is an echo chamber anymore. Sounds like his COVID zero policy was finally overruled by the party and scraped. That's why China is opening up now.
I already missed a double in names like BABA. Is there more room to run?
Though I know you mean this has an impact beyond the chinese companies.
Look at the chart for FXI and YINN (3x version of FXI). Lots of room to run. YINN was $200-300 in normal times prior to the post-COVID pump and then Chinese government freakout on companies and lockdown. I'm not banking on any crazy spikes, but it's not a reach to believe prices should go back to normal.
Same story with XBI and LABU. Look at the charts and see what getting back to normal looks like. I'm good with my YINN position and increased my stop loss to protect my gains. I'm still eager to add to LABU.
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Inflation, recession, the Fed, energy, China, and other Asian news.
Jerome Powell’s China problem is just beginning
Jerome Powell’s China problem is just beginning
That article horseshit. I'd expect the exact opposite with importation of deflation. Still try not to buy anything chinese though
Can someone explain the relationship between local NJ natural gas provider rates per therm and the natural gas futures and/or spot price?
My rates per therm have been skyrocketing while the spot price as well as futures of natural gas has been plummeting for months.
Elizabethtown Gas says they are not a for profit venture (at least not on the natural gas servicer side) so something has to give here, right?
My rates per therm have been skyrocketing while the spot price as well as futures of natural gas has been plummeting for months.
Elizabethtown Gas says they are not a for profit venture (at least not on the natural gas servicer side) so something has to give here, right?
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To decrease volatility, NatGas buyers, just like NatGas sellers, lock into prices to limit excessive volatility. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. I own a NatGas stock that locked 2/3 of future sales at below $3.00, and then prices went above $9.00 in the Fall. To reduce volatility, buyers generally pay a premium to lock in, and sellers lock sales at a discount.
Also, NatGas prices vary based on location, so prices are not always consistent with the Henry Hub price.
64% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck — here's how to keep your budget in check
Rising costs took a toll on household budgets across the board in 2022. These moves can keep your finances in check going forward.
The lock-in rate is usually 10-15% above the going/spot rate. My condo assoc. did not lock in for the last 25 years. Came out on top for 24 and got popped last year. Probably came out ahead in the long run.
Last gasp for the Fed tomorrow? The street is expecting them to try to talk tough, but we all see the inflation data.
www.cnbc.com
Fed expected to slow rate hiking to a quarter point but will stay unrelenting in inflation battle
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point, and it will also signal it will stay vigilant in its fight against inflation.
Apple and Amazon earnings on Thursday.
6.3 million per hour lol
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) posted a $56 billion net profit for 2022, the company said on Tuesday, taking home about $6.3 million per hour last year, and setting not only a company record but a historic high for the Western oil industry.
www.reuters.com
www.cnbc.com
6.3 million per hour lol
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) posted a $56 billion net profit for 2022, the company said on Tuesday, taking home about $6.3 million per hour last year, and setting not only a company record but a historic high for the Western oil industry.
Exxon smashes Western oil majors' profits with $56 billion in 2022
Exxon Mobil Corp posted a $56 billion net profit for 2022, the company said on Tuesday, taking home about $6.3 million per hour last year, and setting not only a company record but a historic high for the Western oil industry.
www.reuters.com
AMD beats on sales and profit but warns of a 10% revenue decline in Q1
AMD reported earnings as many of its rival chipmakers have stumbled in recent weeks, citing lower consumer demand for finished electronics.
Earning have been well above expectations so far.Apple and Amazon earnings on Thursday.
6.3 million per hour lol
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) posted a $56 billion net profit for 2022, the company said on Tuesday, taking home about $6.3 million per hour last year, and setting not only a company record but a historic high for the Western oil industry.
Exxon smashes Western oil majors' profits with $56 billion in 2022
Exxon Mobil Corp posted a $56 billion net profit for 2022, the company said on Tuesday, taking home about $6.3 million per hour last year, and setting not only a company record but a historic high for the Western oil industry.
AMD beats on sales and profit but warns of a 10% revenue decline in Q1
AMD reported earnings as many of its rival chipmakers have stumbled in recent weeks, citing lower consumer demand for finished electronics.
But "talking tough" has not been impactful. Investors not taking the "talk" seriously. So the Fed may just have to demonstrate toughness via a 50 bps increase. We'll see.
50 = opposite reaction than expected
Fed goes crazy = economy tanks, rates will be cut by this summer, QE starts again
Yields will crash and the stock market will boom. Fed can't ignore reality. We all see the inflation data. It isn't a secret. Remember, Bullard is gone and new political doves are voting members now.
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It will certainly be a highly watched announcement. Gas prices have really gone up lately, so it could provide the Fed some cover for 50 but I’ll stick with 25.
You must be watching a different earnings report that I am seeing. It seems like the companies are beating lowered expectations and then lowering expectations for future quarters. In order for the market to run up, there has to be earnings growth or potential for earnings growth. Where are you seeing the catalyst for the earnings growth coming from?
Didn't they start going up right after the SPR drawdowns ended in October? Curious timing.
Absolute values don't matter as much as expectations. Remember, after the Volker inflation bear market, earnings only increase by 8% for the rest of the 1980s. Stocks were up about 230% during the same time. The direct correlation of earnings to stock price isn't as strong as some people think. Expectations rule the day.
Stocks are undervalued. Inflation is already negative (using real-time housing data). Rate increases are ending soon, with cuts also sooner than the Fed admits. Those are my catalysts.
awesome as it should be. Don't see anyone trying to give them aid when it's bust time. They sell on volume with the smallest margins, smaller than grocery stores. nothing wrong with their figures, thank the administration for raising that price!Apple and Amazon earnings on Thursday.
6.3 million per hour lol
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) posted a $56 billion net profit for 2022, the company said on Tuesday, taking home about $6.3 million per hour last year, and setting not only a company record but a historic high for the Western oil industry.
Exxon smashes Western oil majors' profits with $56 billion in 2022
Exxon Mobil Corp posted a $56 billion net profit for 2022, the company said on Tuesday, taking home about $6.3 million per hour last year, and setting not only a company record but a historic high for the Western oil industry.
AMD beats on sales and profit but warns of a 10% revenue decline in Q1
AMD reported earnings as many of its rival chipmakers have stumbled in recent weeks, citing lower consumer demand for finished electronics.
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