Fed can't do 50bps with the markets expecting 25. If they do, without telegraphing it days in advance, they risk more than credibility and long term value in the stability of their messaging. It's why the wording and vote discussion is focused so heavily on post defacto.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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98.7% of analysts expect .25%. And 2-3 Fed voting members already went public with the smaller increase. Done deal.
That would make sense though wouldn’t it? But pretty sure the recent low came a couple months after.
Profit Margin well above ten year trend... BDS is real. I happen to live in a county that will benefit greatly from the infrastructure bill. 45’s infrastructure plan didn’t exist in reality.
Union projects are characteristically money laundering operations where billions are thrown at projects with the expectation that a good chunk of the money goes back to DC (like Ukraine grift). The projects are practically always plagued with added costs and overruns. NY State's budget is 230 billion and FL's is half that. Money just vanishes down black holes in NY. Earlier infrastructure deals were hindered because pols knew they could lose grift/votes
Years of Delays, Billions in Overruns: The Dismal History of Big Infrastructure (Published 2021)
The nation’s most ambitious engineering projects are mired in postponements and skyrocketing costs. Delivering $1.2 trillion in new infrastructure will be tough.
Democrats sour on Trump infrastructure proposals
Any possibility that Democrats would work with President Donald Trump on a face-lift to the nation’s infrastructure has all but eroded.
www.nbcnews.com
Stocks are on a nice little run since the start of the year, but still way off highs from a year ago. And we don't know where the market would be if the Fed were not talking tough.
I think the tough talk has had an effect, but the market is starting to look through it.
I don’t doubt NY state is a clown show. George Santos (aka Arthur Ponzerelli) shouldn’t be allowed to do his grifting in DC.Union projects are characteristically money laundering operations where billions are thrown at projects with the expectation that a good chunk of the money goes back to DC (like Ukraine grift). The projects are practically always plagued with added costs and overruns. NY State's budget is 230 billion and FL's is half that. Money just vanishes down black holes in NY. Earlier infrastructure deals were hindered because pols knew they could lose grift/votes
Years of Delays, Billions in Overruns: The Dismal History of Big Infrastructure (Published 2021)
The nation’s most ambitious engineering projects are mired in postponements and skyrocketing costs. Delivering $1.2 trillion in new infrastructure will be tough.www.nytimes.com
Democrats sour on Trump infrastructure proposals
Any possibility that Democrats would work with President Donald Trump on a face-lift to the nation’s infrastructure has all but eroded.
45 should just hope he’s permitted to play golf at Mar-a-lago while wearing an ankle bracelet.
We all see the inflation data and understand what's happening. The market will react and rally way before the Fed makes a formal declaration of pause/pivot/success.
0.25% is well baked.....99.7% likelihood! LOL.
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.
I don't think the increase will make much of an impact. However, Powell's speech and Q&A are meaningful. The market is anticipating tough/hawkish talk, but you never know how markets will react hearing the words. Any sense of dovishness or even slightly less hawkishness will cause the market to MOON!
No fear of selling the news?0.25% is well baked.....99.7% likelihood! LOL.
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.www.investing.com
I don't think the increase will make much of an impact. However, Powell's speech and Q&A are meaningful. The market is anticipating tough/hawkish talk, but you never know how markets will react hearing the words. Any sense of dovishness or even slightly less hawkishness will cause the market to MOON!
Meh. I don't think that's likely. Regardless, any Fed induced movement (up or down) will be very temporary and trumped tomorrow with earnings from AAPL, GOOGL, and AMZN.
I'm not sure how much we should glean from moves in stocks like INTC and SNAP after awful earnings, where yes the stock tanked, but stayed significantly above 2022 lows.
I believe the Fed focus is on taking steps to ensure inflation does not rise again but continues to retreat to the target level of near 2% and, importantly, hold there. They have to take steps now to do that and that's why a 50 bps increase today would not be too surprising. There's more to it than your portfolio's current balance. We have a way to go before we regain footing. Early '24.
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Inflation is already gone. Look at the QoQ data. We all see what's happening. The Fed is just trying to be tough because they are still butthurt from screwing up 2021 so badly. Nothing more.
Very true. About 70% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten expectations. Excellent results. However, the big boys matter a lot (physiologically and via shear weight in indexes). MSFT had a great quarter, so we already have one in the bank.
No. Inflation is not "gone." Unfortunately. Be patient and prudent. It will pass. Yes. In time. Just not as quickly as you're promoting.
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Inflation is already gone. Look at the QoQ data. We all see what's happening. The Fed is just trying to be tough because they are still butthurt from screwing up 2021 so badly. Nothing more.
Inflation is gone and has been negative for 3-4 months if you use real-time shelter data. Facts are facts. And let me be clear, prices are still higher than pre-COVID. No inflation means prices are not continuing to go up. It doesn't mean prices are back down to where they were before.
ADP was very weak, well below expectations (109k vs 190k) for private payrolls. This is a wonky metric, but perhaps a sign that the next government jobs report will be underwhelming.
.25 as expected. Initial market reactions are negative.
Nice piece on CNBC a showing redline of how the Fed statement changed from December.
www.cnbc.com
Here's what changed in the new Fed statement
This is a comparison of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee statement with the one issued after the Fed's previous policymaking meeting on Dec. 14.
After a very quick downward move, Nasdaq up over 2%.
We've seen big moves post Fed statements over the past couple years reverse quickly. Is that in play here, or is this a jump off for an even bigger move upwards?
We've seen big moves post Fed statements over the past couple years reverse quickly. Is that in play here, or is this a jump off for an even bigger move upwards?
Had a work meeting, so I missed the fun live. You are definitely right about the dovish inflation comments. As I have said many times, the Fed can't ignore reality forever. We all see the inflation data.
I will predict a formal pause at the next Fed meeting, no increase in March! We will have 2 additional inflation reads (Jan and Feb). Both are poised to show accelerating declines. Both months enjoy very large increases in their base comparator months (Jan and Feb 2022). That will significantly help with the YoY math. MoM will likely continue to be flat to negative.
Excellent piece. Thanks for posting!Nice piece on CNBC a showing redline of how the Fed statement changed from December.
Here's what changed in the new Fed statement
This is a comparison of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee statement with the one issued after the Fed's previous policymaking meeting on Dec. 14.
The announcement today provides clarity for the market. It didn't get the shock of 50 BPS. I think the market goes higher from here. I don't think the jobs report on Friday has the ability to shake the market one way or the other. Strong jobs equals strong economy and weak jobs should give the Fed concern for further rate hikes.
2 more inflation reports before the next Fed meeting. If the trend continues or even gets better, here comes the pause! :)
Liberal heads exploding as not just banks and oil companies now. Lol. Will be fun to watch the churning
Strong jobs report with the downturn in inflation is the soft landing.
FYI - John Brown bullish on META due to significant cuts in expenses and capex. Makes sense.
CNBC headline - The Fed and Powell caves. Don’t fight the market! 😀
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