OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Even though they're not growing at the same rate or at all, these old tech companies still make quite a bit of money. The problem is they wasted a lot of money too but they could afford to before and not feel the pinch. Tim Seymour just said it exactly, it's the low hanging fruit to get rid of waste and unnecessary expenses. If they get expenses and capex under control, they can come out from this trough and YoY comps will be favorable too.
It has been quite a big bounce though in a short time frame for META, it may need a break. It was actually pushing up against the 200DMA before this so holding above that after earnings will be a good sign though. In the future, if you see more TikTok bans that can only help META too.
It's not Sept 2022 anymore. The market is past thinking a strong jobs report is negative.
I believe the S&P 500 made the golden cross today. Need to double check that!
He said at one point that the effects of the rate hikes have not yet been seen in the economy. That sounds scary for what he thinks is going to happen.
equities don't matter, anyone that thinks that is just first rate amateur. Equities are the pimple on the elephant's ass the fed doesn't care other than what the perception of the equity markets has on consumer physche. The bond markets are what matters and by default, the swaps/lending mkts. Nothing and I mean nothing else matters to the Fed in their communications to the street. Right now the Fed has a credibility problem and no one believes them which is why we've a massive dislocation between the bond mkts and the fed view. The best thing that can happen is for employment to fall off a cliff othewise we're going to see massive moves in mkts that people are simply not ready for nor are they used to.
of note, Powells comments on inflation indicators reeks of an economist with group think and stuck in Keynesian economic theory from what they learned in books and witnessed in less modern economies. It's actually scary to listen to these guys talk and why the street is dismissive of their talk
Powell referred to "disinflation" a dozen or so times in his statement yesterday. He also emphasized more rate increases ahead and no cuts expected in '23. Yet the market misinterprets his words.
Unlike inflation (prices rising) or deflation (prices falling), "disinflation" means prices are rising at a slower pace. But still rising. Repeat, prices are still rising This deceleration in price increases is called "disinflation."
The takeaway: cautious optimism that any imminent recession could be milder than originally expected. But still likely. And a new market bottom will be reached before any lasting turnaround.
But you pays your money and you makes your chances/choices.
Unlike inflation (prices rising) or deflation (prices falling), "disinflation" means prices are rising at a slower pace. But still rising. Repeat, prices are still rising This deceleration in price increases is called "disinflation."
The takeaway: cautious optimism that any imminent recession could be milder than originally expected. But still likely. And a new market bottom will be reached before any lasting turnaround.
But you pays your money and you makes your chances/choices.
Just doubled up another play with SOXL! Solid green with my TQQQ long hold. Building a solid position of LABU. Good times!
Powell was so calm and relaxed yesterday. He knows the job is done. Look for the pause next meeting (whether they do another 25 or not). At least 2 rate cuts by the end of the year. CPI YoY in the 2s by the summer.
Plan accordingly.
That definitely wasn't my take. My take is he's not afraid to over commit to this course of action and still sees inflationary pressure in key areas or rather, elevated inflation. He talked about the drawdown of the balance sheet (which is negligent at this point and shows further disconnect on his part). I honestly don't think they have a clue
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Im skeptical mostly due to the great unknown of the implications of the china reopening and what impact that has. We obviously take some high readings off the books the next couple months but do things re-accelerate as we get towards labor day? Who knows. I dont pretend to know at least. But I do hope youre right
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
I agree with most of what youre saying besides employment falling off a cliff. This isnt the 70’s any more, totally different times. We dont need 6-7% UE to tame inflation. The backdrop is fundamentally different
Yes. This highlights the whole dynamic: traders hear what they want to hear. The casino is open. Everybody wins. It's easy money. Always.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
He had every opportunity to be more hawkish and decided not to.
March will be interesting. I hope for a pause personally/selfishly as it’ll drive down rate cap prices on some of my floating rate debt which will juice my cashflow
Reuters - “Fed delivers small rate increase; Powell suggests 'couple' more hikes coming.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had a clear message on Wednesday: “as "gratifying" as it is that inflation has begun to slow, the central bank is nowhere near to reversing course or declaring victory.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had a clear message on Wednesday: “as "gratifying" as it is that inflation has begun to slow, the central bank is nowhere near to reversing course or declaring victory.”
curve is doing exactly what it should here but somewhere someone is gonna break and Powell was reminded yesterday that the bond markets have never been wrong so the dislocation is real, it's pricing is real so I'm not sure Powell will be able to stay the course without risking massive unwinding on the curve that will upset global markets. again, fed has no real credibility any longer and listening to multiple desks on that the likes of which I've not heard ever. Fed has issues
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Well the Fed has a 2% target, they want disinflation till they reach that level. They don't want deflation.
+1
The Fed never has a clue. The market knows best. Seems like the Fed is finally accepting reality that inflation is plummeting. We all see the data.
China being CLOSED is what causes inflation due to supply chain issues. If China being open was a problem, we wouldn't have had microscopic inflation for the decade prior to COVID (when China was wide open and pumping up their economy).
Uncontrolled deflation is much more dangerous than too much inflation.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Theres arguments on both sides. Short term will increase demand especially oil wise
China has plenty of oil via Russia. Not a problem whatsoever.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Agree about the Fed being clueless and the market knowing better. Money is rotating out of the dow into the nasdaq. The nasdaq was hit the hardest last year and due to vulnerability to interest rates. Investors believe that rates may not have hit their terminal level but are at least close to their peak. The nasdaq has also been boosted by strong earnings and cost cutting.
My portfolio is somehow up 10% right now YTD. This defies logic and makes no sense. I am 90% sure that I am going to sell everything tomorrow and put 500K between my wife and I into a bank money market at Primis Bank that is paying 5%. It's FDIC insured. I'll lock in ~15% for the 500K and leave the rest of the powder dry for the impending market correction.
Excellent point on cost cutting. Big tech over hired during COVID out of fear they couldn't find workers. Now we see many companies correcting these mistakes.
right
the only issue with china is that in reality, we shouldn't be doing business with a tyrannical gov't like them and ought to force investment dollars south of the border
I dont understand the spread. I sounds like they are charging a 1% commission and call it a spread. The spread can be any amount so the 1% is not really the spread it is a commission.
Nor should we be selling them oil from our SPR. Soon to change with legislation.
Currently at 72 - seems too optimistic, but I'm usually paddling the wrong direction to the market.
Make certain the account is co-owned by you and your spouse. That'll cover the $500k ($250k each owner). Otherwise a single-owner account is "only" insured to $250k.
@T2Kplus20 this is excellent?
finance.yahoo.com
Amazon stock drops on Q4 earnings, slowing AWS growth
Amazon shares slide lower in the after-hours trading session despite following a Q4 revenue beat and earnings miss.
Don't fight the market. You may miss out on the rebound rally. Be careful. Inflation is crashing and the Fed is getting dovish.
Remember.....stocks bottom on average 9-10 months BEFORE earnings bottom. Why? The market is forward looking and about expectations.
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