OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

Like the broken clock, Tom Lee will eventually be right. (Just having some fun, he has a good record, junt not in 2022). And I hope he’s right this time, but I’m not sure how we get there. Most of America is tapped out and high interest rates are impacting the remainder. I think we will continue to bounce around for the next year, which will create opportunities for traders.

After 12 years of wrong, the bears finally had their moment in 2022! :)
Great thing about Tom Lee is that he brings the data and talks specifics on why he is bullish. The job market is strong, consumer is strong, inflation dropping like a rock.....life is good. Sure, nothing goes up or down in a straight line, so maybe over the next 6-9 months we get a clunker CPI print. However, this will be a temporary bump in the road as we head back to ATHs. I wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P hit 5,000 in 2023.

 

[Goo]

What’s next? S&P currently at 4100.

A) +500 to 4600
B) -500 to 3600

 

[T2Kplus20]

What’s next? S&P currently at 4100.

A) +500 to 4600
B) -500 to 3600

Likely A, but it depends on the next 2 CPI reports. I would bet the S&P goes north of 4600 sometime this year.

 

[RU-05]

Who is buying LYFT tomorrow?

Might buy some on Monday. Though im wary id be buying into a downward trending market. Even if it bucks the trend that would limit upside.

Looks like the last price in after hours was 10.27. Might sell some $10 weekly puts for about a 3.5% premium. Can sell the 10.50 for about 6%.

 

[RU-05]

What’s next? S&P currently at 4100.

A) +500 to 4600
B) -500 to 3600

Im looking for a downward move. Not sure about all the way back to 3600 but the hot trend seems to have broken.

 

[RU-05]

If someone likes this space, how could anyone buy LYFT instead of UBER? The former is losing more money each Q and the latter is closing in on profitability (likely Q4).

Well lyft just tanked so it would be a buy low situation as an investment. Or as a trade just looking for a bounce back after an overreaction move to the downside.

The fast money guys were pointing to $10.50 as a good opportunity when it was in the 11’s on Thursday.

 

[Knight Owl]

MSFT up after hours. NYT Tech columnist just wrote about how he’s now switched his default search to Bing from Google.

 

[Morrischiano]

What’s next? S&P currently at 4100.

A) +500 to 4600
B) -500 to 3600

Betting on B.

Had drinks last night with a buddy that works for Goldman’s prime brokerage and he said that 2 of their 3 biggest hedge funds have been selling into this 2023 rally.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Betting on B.

Had drinks last night with a buddy that works for Goldman’s prime brokerage and he said that 2 of their 3 biggest hedge funds have been selling into this 2023 rally.

I know a guy who knows another guy who had lunch with this other guy at Subway that told him to sell. LOL! These type of posts are always good for a laugh. Thanks!

Bears sounding desperate.

 

[RU-05]

MSFT up after hours. NYT Tech columnist just wrote about how he’s now switched his default search to Bing from Google.

All about that AI.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

What’s next? S&P currently at 4100.

A) +500 to 4600
B) -500 to 3600

C) -800 to 3300

 

[RU-Hunter]

What’s next? S&P currently at 4100.

A) +500 to 4600
B) -500 to 3600

I think we go sideways for a while, although, Tuesday’s CPI has the potential to drive the market higher and probably not as much to the downside. I will say A.

 

[T2Kplus20]

C) -800 to 3300

As I predicted, the mainstream narrative is starting to change:

What Recession? Some Economists See Chances of a Growth Rebound.

The Federal Reserve has raised rates rapidly. But instead of cracking, some data point to an economy that’s thriving.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Knight Owl]

All about that AI.

Yep. MSFT stands to win big if they can capture a large chunk of search market share while Google flounders. Google can only lose this battle with other search engines as there is no way they keep their same ultra-dominant market share.

 

[RU-05]

I think we go sideways for a while, although, Tuesday’s CPI has the potential to drive the market higher and probably not as much to the downside. I will say A.

Sideways really means trading within some range. What would you expect high and low ends of that range to be?

 

[RU-05]

Yep. MSFT stands to win big if they can capture a large chunk of search market share while Google flounders. Google can only lose this battle with other search engines as there is no way they keep their same ultra-dominant market share.

luckily I own Google. Well in the red on it too.

 

[T2Kplus20]

All about that AI.

Did you watch JB's latest show yesterday? He had a hilarious line about AI and consumer stables. Check it out at the 40:30 mark:

 

[RU-05]

Did you watch JB's latest show yesterday? He had a hilarious line about AI and consumer stables. Check it out at the 40:30 mark:

View embedded media

No not yet. Either tonight or tomorrow morning.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I think we go sideways for a while, although, Tuesday’s CPI has the potential to drive the market higher and probably not as much to the downside. I will say A.

By the summer, CPI YoY will be 2.5%'ish. It likely won't be a straight line down, so be ready to buy any meaningful dips. The bears are desperate and won't go down without a fight. Look for a few fake bear pullbacks over the next 2 Qs.

 

[RU-05]

As I predicted, the mainstream narrative is starting to change:

What Recession? Some Economists See Chances of a Growth Rebound.

The Federal Reserve has raised rates rapidly. But instead of cracking, some data point to an economy that’s thriving.

www.nytimes.com

If inflation maintains at feds target that would give a big boost of confidence to a fully employed consumer.

 

[T2Kplus20]

No not yet. Either tonight or tomorrow morning.

Absolutely great episode. I'm about 3/4 done and will finish it tonight. I also have been checking out Dan and Guy's Market Call when possible. Definitely the other POV, but a nice short 30 mins show. Carter Worth is a great guest for charts.

 

[RU-Hunter]

I think we take two steps up and one step back for a while. The lows around 3,700 and highs of 4,300 for a while before we break out.

 

[T2Kplus20]

If inflation maintains at feds target that would give a big boost of confidence to a fully employed consumer.

It all comes down to inflation.....CPI, PCE, and PPI. Everything else is just background noise, including the job market. JB also had great comments about the 500,000 number being overblown. White collar tech workers making $300k are getting laid off in big numbers, but hourly warehouse workers making $15/hr are getting hired more quickly. All of these jobs count as "1" regardless of the huge difference in economic impact.

 

[RU-Hunter]

It all comes down to inflation.....CPI, PCE, and PPI. Everything else is just background noise, including the job market. JB also had great comments about the 500,000 number being overblown. White collar tech workers making $300k are getting laid off in big numbers, but hourly warehouse workers making $15/hr are getting hired more quickly. All of these jobs count as "1" regardless of the huge difference in economic impact.

A weak job market will help though

 

[RU-05]

It all comes down to inflation.....CPI, PCE, and PPI. Everything else is just background noise, including the job market. JB also had great comments about the 500,000 number being overblown. White collar tech workers making $300k are getting laid off in big numbers, but hourly warehouse workers making $15/hr are getting hired more quickly. All of these jobs count as "1" regardless of the huge difference in economic impact.

Someone else(jenny harrington maybe) made that point during the week. And its why emplyment is up but average wages are down.

Really its all about earnings though.

 

[RU-05]

Absolutely great episode. I'm about 3/4 done and will finish it tonight. I also have been checking out Dan and Guy's Market Call when possible. Definitely the other POV, but a nice short 30 mins show. Carter Worth is a great guest for charts.

I think guy and dan get more nitty gritty on their show.

Josh is way more focused on cnbc. He goofs around alot on these.

Both shows are fun though.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I think guy and dan get more nitty gritty on their show.

Josh is way more focused on cnbc. He goofs around alot on these.

Both shows are fun though.

Definitely more entertainment with The Compound shows, but I learn a few things new with every show (and investment ideas).

 

[T2Kplus20]

Someone else(jenny harrington maybe) made that point during the week. And its why emplyment is up but average wages are down.

Really its all about earnings though.

Earning are important, but the correlation between earnings and stock prices is not as strong as most people think. Stock prices are forward looking and more about expectations instead of absolute values. Prices bottom 9-10 months before earnings in bear markets. Also, after the Volker inflation bear market ended, for the rest of the 80s, earning rose 8% and stock prices were up 230%.

 

[RU-05]

Absolutely great episode. I'm about 3/4 done and will finish it tonight. I also have been checking out Dan and Guy's Market Call when possible. Definitely the other POV, but a nice short 30 mins show. Carter Worth is a great guest for charts.

Ha. 10 minutes in and I can see why Belski hooked you.

 

[RU-05]

Earning are important, but the correlation between earnings and stock prices is not as strong as most people think. Stock prices are forward looking and more about expectations instead of absolute values. Prices bottom 9-10 months before earnings in bear markets. Also, after the Volker inflation bear market ended, for the rest of the 80s, earning rose 8% and stock prices were up 230%.

Well im with you that inflation seems to be behind us. The large chunk of it anyway. And with that the fed is mostly through raising rates. So now the question is can the economy keep chugging through the rate hikes which are already in place. And that will show itself in the earnings

Im no market historian but I imagine every previous cycle had its own identity. Right now after all the craziness of the last 3 years I think this market just wants to get back to the basics.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Ha. 10 minutes in and I can see why Belski hooked you.

He is such a level-headed guy! Just like Tom Lee. Love his character voice when making fun of bears. :)

 

[T2Kplus20]

Well im with you that inflation seems to be behind us. The large chunk of it anyway. And with that the fed is mostly through raising rates. So now the question is can the economy keep chugging through the rate hikes which are already in place. And that will show itself in the earnings

Im no market historian but I imagine every previous cycle had its own identity. Right now after all the craziness of the last 3 years I think this market just wants to get back to the basics.

I'm sure every bull and bear market have their own identity and unique features. Just never know what that will be compared to all the other things that are inline with historical norms.

Inflation is over without a new event to change the game. However, government metrics are awful and quirky, so I'm sure there will be a clunker print or two over the next 6-9 months. If this happens, I will buy the sh!t out of it.

I mentioned this before, but this bear market taught me to respect and understand the value sector much more. I still lean growth/tech and that won't change, but I have a few kickass value funds/etfs in our accounts and will add to them to maintain allocations.

 

[RU-05]

I'm sure every bull and bear market have their own identity and unique features. Just never know what that will be compared to all the other things that are inline with historical norms.

Inflation is over without a new event to change the game. However, government metrics are awful and quirky, so I'm sure there will be a clunker print or two over the next 6-9 months. If this happens, I will buy the sh!t out of it.

I mentioned this before, but this bear market taught me to respect and understand the value sector much more. I still lean growth/tech and that won't change, but I have a few kickass value funds/etfs in our accounts and will add to them to maintain allocations.

Energy prices are going to be massively deflationary over the next 5 months. I don’t see how we get a yoy clunker in that time frame.

Not sure of when the housing yoy comparisons start to show deflation.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Energy prices are going to be massively deflationary over the next 5 months. I don’t see how we get a yoy clunker in that time frame.

Not sure of when the housing yoy comparisons start to show deflation.

CPI housing has a ridiculous lag. Based on Case Shiller and other real time housing metrics, home prices have been deflationary for the past 6 months and rent for the past 3. The math is coming. This is all baked. Shelter is really the only thing holding up gov'ment inflation data. When it finally cracks, we will get below 3% YoY in a heartbeat.

 

[Morrischiano]

As I predicted, the mainstream narrative is starting to change:

What Recession? Some Economists See Chances of a Growth Rebound.

The Federal Reserve has raised rates rapidly. But instead of cracking, some data point to an economy that’s thriving.

www.nytimes.com

I’ve never met a very wealthy economist.

 

[jtung230]

CPI housing has a ridiculous lag. Based on Case Shiller and other real time housing metrics, home prices have been deflationary for the past 6 months and rent for the past 3. The math is coming. This is all baked. Shelter is really the only thing holding up gov'ment inflation data. When it finally cracks, we will get below 3% YoY in a heartbeat.

Here's what's happening with home prices as mortgage rates fall

Home price gains have been weakening over the past six months, but an increase in demand may change the picture.

www.cnbc.com

 

[RU-05]

I’ve never met a very wealthy economist.

I get this is supposed to be a knock but economists know what they are getting into when they decide to do what they do.

 

[RU-05]

CPI housing has a ridiculous lag. Based on Case Shiller and other real time housing metrics, home prices have been deflationary for the past 6 months and rent for the past 3. The math is coming. This is all baked. Shelter is really the only thing holding up gov'ment inflation data. When it finally cracks, we will get below 3% YoY in a heartbeat.

We might be there after the Feb reading. Energy will be a monster drag. WTI is 50% off 2022 late feb highs.

 

[T2Kplus20]

We might be there after the Feb reading. Energy will be a monster drag. WTI is 50% off 2022 late feb highs.

Very good point on the base effect. We are just about to start lapping the inflation rip last year that lead to the June 2022 peak. This all helps the math.

Think about this for a second. It's all about some silly math equation. Inflation, Fed decisions, stock market. Just math. Not about what actually is happening with inflation and prices. LOL!

 

[Goo]

I'm sure every bull and bear market have their own identity and unique features. Just never know what that will be compared to all the other things that are inline with historical norms.

Inflation is over without a new event to change the game. However, government metrics are awful and quirky, so I'm sure there will be a clunker print or two over the next 6-9 months. If this happens, I will buy the sh!t out of it.

I mentioned this before, but this bear market taught me to respect and understand the value sector much more. I still lean growth/tech and that won't change, but I have a few kickass value funds/etfs in our accounts and will add to them to maintain allocations.

Aren’t you already at nearly 100% equities? How are you buying the shit out of the next leg down? Maybe I misunderstood what you said earlier in the week.