OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

Aren’t you already at nearly 100% equities? How are you buying the shit out of the next leg down? Maybe I misunderstood what you said earlier in the week.

Plenty of disposal new money every week and large quarterly LTI/equity payouts. Annual bonus is right around the corner as well. The only account with a large cash position is my fun account that includes my TQQQ play. I was waiting to buy more if it hit $15 last year, but never did.

Beyond investment accounts, we have plenty of cash for other purposes, but we don't normally mingle the two (reserves vs investments).

 

[FastMJ]

What’s next? S&P currently at 4100.

A) +500 to 4600
B) -500 to 3600

I doubt we will see either of these levels in 2023

 

[FastMJ]

Sideways really means trading within some range. What would you expect high and low ends of that range to be?

3800 to 4300

 

[RUTGERS95]

Sideways is good

 

[T2Kplus20]

Sideways is good

There are always plenty of winners in a sideways market.

 

[T2Kplus20]

PLTR is profitable! Stock up 18%:

Shares of Palantir pop as it reports first profitable quarter

Palantir's revenue for the quarter increased 18% year over year, and its U.S. commercial revenue grew 12%.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Postman_1]

We will see tomorrow

Markets Brief: January CPI Report Forecasts Show a Bump in the Road to Lower Inflation

A hot reading on inflation in the CPI report could mean higher rates for longer.

www.morningstar.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

We will see tomorrow

Markets Brief: January CPI Report Forecasts Show a Bump in the Road to Lower Inflation

A hot reading on inflation in the CPI report could mean higher rates for longer.

www.morningstar.com

These gov'ment metrics are truly awful, so you never know month to month. However, we all know that inflation is gone and we have been in a deflationary environment for 4-5 months. Even using these garbage metrics, the math will eventually catch up.

 

[jtung230]

These gov'ment metrics are truly awful, so you never know month to month. However, we all know that inflation is gone and we have been in a deflationary environment for 4-5 months. Even using these garbage metrics, the math will eventually catch up.

Outside of gas, what else is down?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Outside of gas, what else is down?

Home prices, rent, energy across the board, commodities, used cars, etc.

 

[jtung230]

Home prices, rent, energy across the board, commodities, used cars, etc.

I provided you a link earlier that home prices are still going up. So is rent. They are just going up at a slower rate.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I provided you a link earlier that home prices are still going up. So is rent. They are just going up at a slower rate.

LOL! Home prices have been going down for 5-6 months and rent for about 3 months. This is common knowledge and literally mentioned by two Fed members last month.

 

[jtung230]

LOL! Home prices have been going down for 5-6 months and rent for about 3 months. This is common knowledge and literally mentioned by two Fed members last month.

Here's what's happening with home prices as mortgage rates fall

Home price gains have been weakening over the past six months, but an increase in demand may change the picture.

www.cnbc.com

 

[jtung230]

LOL! Home prices have been going down for 5-6 months and rent for about 3 months. This is common knowledge and literally mentioned by two Fed members last month.

Manhattan rents hit an all-time high in January

Median rents in Manhattan hit a record in January, fueled by a strong job market and tight supply.

www.cnbc.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

^^^^^ LOL! Learn the facts about the real data. The Fed and most experts disagree with you. From your first link:

"Prices began falling last June".

Double LOL!

 

[jtung230]

^^^^^ LOL! Learn the facts about the real data. The Fed and most experts disagree with you. From your first link:

"Prices began falling last June".

Double LOL!

Funny you agree with the Fed now.

 

[Postman_1]

Inflation heading back up?

Inflation rose 0.5% in January, more than expected and up 6.4% from a year ago

The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.4% in January from a month ago and 6.2% on an annual basis, according to Dow Jones.

www.cnbc.com

 

[FastMJ]

Inflation heading back up?

Inflation rose 0.5% in January, more than expected and up 6.4% from a year ago

The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.4% in January from a month ago and 6.2% on an annual basis, according to Dow Jones.

www.cnbc.com

Gasoline ticked up in January but the Feb report will reverse that based on current pump prices. The one that is most annoying is food inflation which still marches up about half a percent a month or 6% annualized with no relenting.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Inflation heading back up?

Inflation rose 0.5% in January, more than expected and up 6.4% from a year ago

The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.4% in January from a month ago and 6.2% on an annual basis, according to Dow Jones.

www.cnbc.com

Nope. Inflation is still gone when ignoring CPI's garbage housing and shelter metrics. The CPI itself was also reweighted to increase the size of housing and shelter in the print. Hurts now, but this will help over time as the CPI math finally catches up with reality. Everyone knows this by now. CPI housing and shelter lags 9-12 months and we are about 6 months into this process.

Overall, pretty meh print. The Feb one will be very important since it comes right before the next Fed meeting.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Gasoline ticked up in January but the Feb report will reverse that based on current pump prices. The one that is most annoying is food inflation which still marches up about half a percent a month or 6% annualized with no relenting.

We're also releasing oil again from the SPR rather than replenishing what we've already depleted. Gas prices here in western NC have recently risen about $.20/gal and is (again) trending upward.

 

[T2Kplus20]

We're also releasing oil again from the SPR rather than replenishing what we've already depleted. Gas prices here in western NC have recently risen about $.20/gal and is (again) trending upward.

In NJ, gas prices popped 20-25 cents over the past few months, but then pulled back about 10 cents. Not a big deal. No idea why Biden is panicking and selling more SPR.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Bottom line re: inflation is that the CPI climbed 0.5% in January, the most in three months. Trend is heading in the wrong direction, unfortunately. So... more pressure on the Fed to increase its rate upwards and for longer.

As for the SPR release, it's a short-term move to ease pricing. The Energy Information Administration said it expected record March production from the seven biggest U.S. shale basins. So we're ramping up to meet demand and be positioned to restore the depleted SPR.

 

[RUTGERS95]

maybe the gov'ts should eliminate the gas taxes to help the common man????

 

[T2Kplus20]

Bottom line re: inflation is that the CPI climbed 0.5% in January, the most in three months. Trend is heading in the wrong direction, unfortunately. So... more pressure on the Fed to increase its rate upwards and for longer.

As for the SPR release, it's a short-term move to ease pricing. The Energy Information Administration said it expected record March production from the seven biggest U.S. shale basins. So we're ramping up to meet demand and be positioned to restore the depleted SPR.

Bottom line - inflation is gone, which is why the Fed is talking so much about disinflation. CPI is garbage. Replace the CPI housing/shelter metric with real time data and the MoM is still negative. The Fed knows the math. We all know should know the math. Learn the math.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Bottom line - inflation is gone, which is why the Fed is talking so much about disinflation. CPI is garbage. Replace the CPI housing/shelter metric with real time data and the MoM is still negative. The Fed knows the math. We all know should know the math. Learn the math.

No. Inflation is not "gone." You should run for office.

 

[T2Kplus20]

No. Inflation is not "gone." You should run for office.

Inflation is gone. The math rules the day. Now, with that said, higher prices are not gone. Sadly, many people confuse the two.

 

[RU-Hunter]

Nine month and one year treasuries just reached 5%.

 

[rutgersdave]

No. Inflation is not "gone." You should run for office.

He should be a spokesperson for Biden. Inflation is gone.

 

[T2Kplus20]

He should be a spokesperson for Biden. Inflation is gone.

6 months of negative MoM data when using real-time housing data instead of CPI's garbage housing metric. Sounds gone to me. No?

 

[DHajekRC84]

maybe the gov'ts should eliminate the gas taxes to help the common man????

serious question. How are the people charging their EVs paying for the road work and such that comes from the gas taxes?

 

[Morrischiano]

Very good point on the base effect. We are just about to start lapping the inflation rip last year that lead to the June 2022 peak. This all helps the math.

Think about this for a second. It's all about some silly math equation. Inflation, Fed decisions, stock market. Just math. Not about what actually is happening with inflation and prices. LOL!

Someone told me month-over-month inflation is negative.

Inflation rose 0.5% in January, more than expected and up 6.4% from a year ago

The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.4% in January from a month ago and 6.2% on an annual basis, according to Dow Jones.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Morrischiano]

We might be there after the Feb reading. Energy will be a monster drag. WTI is 50% off 2022 late feb highs.

Ex food and energy CPI YoY is at 5.5% as per this morning’s report

 

[RUTGERS95]

serious question. How are the people charging their EVs paying for the road work and such that comes from the gas taxes?

ha, gas taxes don't even go to the roads or rather such a small part. That money is so earmarked for bs it's not even funny.

EV is worse for the environment, people are just not good at looking past their noses.

No idea what will happen to the budget mess the move to EV (if it happens at their timetable which I'm not sure is possible)

 

[T2Kplus20]

Someone told me month-over-month inflation is negative.

Inflation rose 0.5% in January, more than expected and up 6.4% from a year ago

The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.4% in January from a month ago and 6.2% on an annual basis, according to Dow Jones.

www.cnbc.com

It is. See posts above.

 

[Morrischiano]

It is. See posts above.

See the CPI report that it is up .5% in the last month

 

[T2Kplus20]

See the CPI report that it is up .5% in the last month

LOL! Even the Fed knows the CPI is crap (as per Powell and the Philly Gov). Educate yourself on the math and then post.

 

[DHajekRC84]

ha, gas taxes don't even go to the roads or rather such a small part. That money is so earmarked for bs it's not even funny.

EV is worse for the environment, people are just not good at looking past their noses.

No idea what will happen to the budget mess the move to EV (if it happens at their timetable which I'm not sure is possible)

yeah it just appears to be such a revenue disconnect between giving away $ to wealthier people to purchase which then further reduces tax revenue in future without some form of replacement use tax in exchange for lack of gas tax earned.

BTW..I'm down on SC shore for a bit and gas here is now like $2.87 plus you can save another .$10-$20 with Fuel Rewards from supermarkets or the shell rewards program. I'll be filling up later today for like $2.67 .. not seeing a lot of EVs here.

 

[Morrischiano]

LOL! Even the Fed knows the CPI is crap (as per Powell and the Philly Gov). Educate yourself on the math and then post.

Got it. There are facts and there are alternative facts, which you use.

Housing is part of CPI, lag or no lag.

Earnings are trending down with the higher input costs. Employment is not cooling. Rate cut in 2023 narratives are dead. Yield curve still inverted. Markets are going trend lower this spring. Act accordingly.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Got it. There are facts and there are alternative facts, which you use.

Housing is part of CPI, lag or no lag.

Earnings are trending down with the higher input costs. Employment is not cooling. Rate cut in 2023 narratives are dead. Yield curve still inverted. Markets are going trend lower this spring. Act accordingly.

Did you know CPI housing still uses data from before the Fed started raising rates last March? Problem? LOL!

As per my earlier post, learn the math:

'Inflation is still gone when ignoring CPI's garbage housing and shelter metrics. The CPI itself was also reweighted to increase the size of housing and shelter in the print. Hurts now, but this will help over time as the CPI math finally catches up with reality. Everyone knows this by now. CPI housing and shelter lags 9-12 months and we are about 6 months into this process."

 

[RUDead]

6 months of negative MoM data when using real-time housing data instead of CPI's garbage housing metric. Sounds gone to me. No?

Are saying that inflation started much earlier than the numbers say?