I don’t waste my time yelling at brick walls. I’m risk off for the next 90-120 days. I’m locking in solid profits in a very uncertain first half of the year.
You do you.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
You do you.
Hell yeah it did. Inflation was raging throughout 2021 and the Fed screwed the pooch by relying on lagging garbage gov'ment metrics like CPI (and thinking inflation was lower than reality). And then for most of 2022, they were making the same mistake only from the opposite direction (assuming inflation was worse than reality).
Thankfully, they seem to be learning. Finally. Example:
Recent speech by Harker (Jan 2023):
"Survey data are an important tool in the economic business. At the Fed, we look at everything from big broad numbers like GDP and employment growth to more granular figures like restaurant reservations and mobility data. These data — hard data — tell us a lot.
But as a policymaker, I’ve come to believe that soft data like survey results are perhaps equally important to getting a full understanding of our economic situation. Candidly, an overemphasis on hard data can lead to policy errors; last year, hard data suggested to us that inflation would be “transitory,” whereas the soft data we were hearing from our contacts indicated that rising prices were proving more persistent than we may have expected. Which is to say, paying due attention to soft data is vitally important to effective policymaking."
A person unwilling to learn is doomed to underachieve or fail. I wish you luck!
You were banging the table it was transitory back then. You've been wrong about inflation this whole ride. Safe to assume you are still wrong.
Food inflation is persistent and has cooled from double digits to around 6% but still running hot
I was wrong back then, but I learned a lot from the people who were right in 2021. I'm essentially saying what those people are saying now. If you believed (or now accept) the CPI was crap story in 2021, saying CPI is crap now is consistent.
Very good conversation. Love this topic!
Says the person who lost 20% last year.
Also, what house pricing lag? Seem like the data has converged with Case Shiller:
Only fools look at YoY. Case Shiller has been negative for the past 6 months while CPI shelter continues to be at +0.7-0.8% MoM. See the difference? Math is hard. LOL!
I've known these CPI numbers have been crap for 20+ years so that wasn't news to me. I couldn't believe the Fed was saying it was transitory in 2021 but now I think I understand why. Powell was still trying to get through the nomination process with Biden so he played along. Biden wanted Brainerd (who is a moron). Once Powell got through that process he changed his tune and stopped listening to others on the board and the army of PHD's they employee who are always wrong.
I don't think the inflation fight is done and don't see any pivot in the near future. If he really wants to get back to 2% inflation he has a lot of work to do . I thought he would get rates above 5% and stay there a while. I think he is trying to do away with the Fed put and get back to real price discovery which would be a great thing imo.
But his comments last week surprised me so not sure what to think at this point. My guess he has time and is waiting for more data.
I am also surprised we haven't seen more liquidity problems oversees but that could still happen. I am usually way early on these things. We are starting to see some issues in commercial real estate and expect that to continue throughout 2023.
The good news is the US economy, liquidity and banking system look much better than the rest of the world.
Great post. A few things. First, interesting day for the market. I really think the Fed/Powell is figuring out their past mistakes. They know CPI shelter is garbage. This is why he has been talking about CPI Core ex-shelter. Makes sense!
I think you heard a more dovish Powell during the past two events for two reasons:
1. He understands the CPI shelter problem and that it is essentially prompting up the CPI print. He understands Case Shiller and other real-time metrics and knows the CPI shelter math is heading in this direction. It is a mathematical certainty. Professor Seigel from Wharton calculated MoM Core CPI using an average of Case Shiller and two other real-time sources. MoM Core CPI is -0.1% and has been negative for the past 4 months. Powell knows this. The Fed has won. They just need to be patient. No need to blow up the economy.
2. You are 100% correct. Powell is a political player. He literally changed to hawkish on inflation hours after meeting with Biden. This was the deal to gain renomination. Get tough on inflation. Now that the fight going well, Powell needs to calm down and get out of the way for the upcoming presidential election cycle. I'm not saying he is going to do something to support or hurt Biden, but rather he wants the Fed to be neutral and a non-factor on the economy.
FYI - other Fed news:
www.cnbc.com
Biden taps Fed's Brainard, Bernstein for top economic jobs as part of White House reshuffle
The White House tapped Lael Brainard and Jared Bernstein to two critical roles shaping U.S. economic policy as the country grapples with high inflation.
FYI - other Fed news:
Biden taps Fed's Brainard, Bernstein for top economic jobs as part of White House reshuffle
The White House tapped Lael Brainard and Jared Bernstein to two critical roles shaping U.S. economic policy as the country grapples with high inflation.
She'll fit right in on that clown bus
Why? A majority of Americans pay rent. Most renters sign leases that renew yearly. Why would you skew the data to MoM? That is more representative of facts on the ground than a home purchase amortized over a 10 yr period.
It is a meritless argument on its face but you use it because it suits you for a small slice of time.
Also, switching to a more noisy index or data period could be potentially harmful to real estate prices and destructive to household net worth. Doing so might force the Fed to raise rates faster and sporadically- take the wind out of the sails of the real estate market by raising mortgage rates too quickly.
Think, then post.
At least there are ways to combat food inflation with the help of advice from the WSJ…
The President is doing a great job with creating a true “Made in America” movement. Despite some of his gaffs, he is assembling a fantastic economic team that some believe, including you apparently, that we will have a soft landing.FYI - other Fed news:
Biden taps Fed's Brainard, Bernstein for top economic jobs as part of White House reshuffle
The White House tapped Lael Brainard and Jared Bernstein to two critical roles shaping U.S. economic policy as the country grapples with high inflation.
The timing of inflation crashing and the CPI garbage math catching up with reality will help his reelection bid. So will rate cuts likely starting in Q4 2023. As for the economy, we already had the recession (first half of 2022). I don't think it will happened again. Avoiding directly getting into politics in this thread.
Powell will push to 6%. He wants to kill inflation. He doesn’t want his name in economics text books.
Looks like the tide has turned.....at least for eggs:
Wholesale egg prices have 'collapsed.' Why consumers may soon see relief
Wholesale egg prices have declined by over 50% from their recent record highs. Retail prices may soon follow, but that's not a sure thing.
If he goes that stupid, his name will be in the textbook for the deep unnecessary "Powell Recession" he created. LOL! And you can kiss you-know-who's reelection goodbye.
Because inflation will be gone and the Fed will start to move back to a neutral level.
Also, remember that the Feb CPI print comes out right before the next Fed meeting in March. Lots of data to digest! :)
Egg prices should by coming down
www.cnbc.com
Wholesale egg prices have 'collapsed.' Why consumers may soon see relief
Wholesale egg prices have declined by over 50% from their recent record highs. Retail prices may soon follow, but that's not a sure thing.
Dems did something right in NY
Micron lined-up to put 100 billion into upstate NY
GlobalFoundries moved HQ from CA to NY and GM cutting deal to make chips there.
The bipartisan move to make chips in USA began under Trump but Dems didn't go into convulsions over it.
I'm sure techs wanted new chip source after all China's wierdness .
Alas US blowing up Nord Stream pipeline ( 49% were owned by four different European companies) and throwing a NATO ally down the well, is more serious than MSM conveys. Technically the act qualifies as an act of terrorism against a civilian target. Plus the pipeline was destroyed when it looked like Germany would have people freezing to death. With friends like current US admin who needs friends?
As Seymour Hersh says US wants a big war. For odd reasons the smarter people can guess - DC wants WW3 - something many are saying is already begun. Musk pulling Starlink from use by Ukrainian because "we will not enable escalation of conflict that may lead to WW3.” Too bad US already got Ukraine destroyed for selfish reasons.
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
The New York Times called it a “mystery,” but the United States executed a covert sea operation that was kept secret—until now
seymourhersh.substack.com
The West is already fighting World War 3 with Russia, former White House Russia advisor Fiona Hill says
Fiona Hill one of the foremost experts on Putin's Russia, said the West has been embroiled in conflict with Russia for some time.
www.businessinsider.com
This sort of insight should be redirected and limited to the CE board.Dems did something right in NY
Micron lined-up to put 100 billion into upstate NY
GlobalFoundries moved HQ from CA to NY and GM cutting deal to make chips there.
The bipartisan move to make chips in USA began under Trump but Dems didn't go into convulsions over it.
I'm sure techs wanted new chip source after all China's wierdness .
Alas US blowing up Nord Stream pipeline ( 49% were owned by four different European companies) and throwing a NATO ally down the well, is more serious than MSM conveys. Technically the act qualifies as an act of terrorism against a civilian target. Plus the pipeline was destroyed when it looked like Germany would have people freezing to death. With friends like current US admin who needs friends?
As Seymour Hersh says US wants a big war. For odd reasons the smarter people can guess - DC wants WW3 - something many are saying is already begun. Musk pulling Starlink from use by Ukrainian because "we will not enable escalation of conflict that may lead to WW3.” Too bad US already got Ukraine destroyed for selfish reasons.
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
The New York Times called it a “mystery,” but the United States executed a covert sea operation that was kept secret—until now
The West is already fighting World War 3 with Russia, former White House Russia advisor Fiona Hill says
Fiona Hill one of the foremost experts on Putin's Russia, said the West has been embroiled in conflict with Russia for some time.
What do you say we keep political partisanship out of this thread and stick to investment insights/discussion?
The current administration was the one that funded the programs to help launch “Made in America” semiconductors movement. The previous one just talked about it.Dems did something right in NY
Micron lined-up to put 100 billion into upstate NY
GlobalFoundries moved HQ from CA to NY and GM cutting deal to make chips there.
The bipartisan move to make chips in USA began under Trump but Dems didn't go into convulsions over it.
I'm sure techs wanted new chip source after all China's wierdness .
Alas US blowing up Nord Stream pipeline ( 49% were owned by four different European companies) and throwing a NATO ally down the well, is more serious than MSM conveys. Technically the act qualifies as an act of terrorism against a civilian target. Plus the pipeline was destroyed when it looked like Germany would have people freezing to death. With friends like current US admin who needs friends?
As Seymour Hersh says US wants a big war. For odd reasons the smarter people can guess - DC wants WW3 - something many are saying is already begun. Musk pulling Starlink from use by Ukrainian because "we will not enable escalation of conflict that may lead to WW3.” Too bad US already got Ukraine destroyed for selfish reasons.
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
The New York Times called it a “mystery,” but the United States executed a covert sea operation that was kept secret—until now
The West is already fighting World War 3 with Russia, former White House Russia advisor Fiona Hill says
Fiona Hill one of the foremost experts on Putin's Russia, said the West has been embroiled in conflict with Russia for some time.
And take your repeated refuted claims of the US blowing up a pipeline to the current events board or to Russia. This thread is about the stock market.
The U.S. is trying to remake the chip supply chain, despite the glut
American policymakers are aiming to promote U.S. semiconductor chip manufacturing while protecting national security, experts say.
Another bad inflation indicator with this morning’s retail sales number. Although it should be generally good for retail stocks.
C'mon. CE fits this best. If we continue with that slant, this thread will deteriorate further, and it loses any value it may offer, anyone. We've already lost a few knowledgeable posters. No need to lose more.
Maybe it's bad for inflation, but a good overall signal, ie the economy is hanging in there.
Absolutely pertinent to current inflation and mkt woes
