OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RUTGERS95]

Fed pause now? :)

PPI plummeted:

Data showed retail sales fell 0.4% last month. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a contraction of 0.3%.

A separate report showed producer prices rose 4.6% in February on an annual basis, against expectations of a 5.4% rise.

Traders' bets were still equally split between odds of a 25 basis point rate hike and a pause at the Fed's March meeting.

sales and cc debt are big issues but if we see the outflows of deposits from regionals to the big 4 then we will absolutely see a fed pause regardless of inflation as that'll be viewed as deflationary with immediate impact.

I know this sounds off but the Fed approach to slowing the economy is wrong, antiquated, and shows a real lack of understanding to modern economics by people stuck in 30yrs ago thinking. Having regionals show stress and limit lending activity due to depositor withdrawls will absolute do more in 2 months than the Fed has done in 13

 

[RUTGERS95]

Have to question if neutrality is really the thing here; UBS doesn’t appear to be on thin ice…

Does it have a disproportionate impact on CS, perhaps, but if so that’s likely because CS is already a damaged, fragile institution.

respectfully, ubs isn't even in the same class of business for that mkt that CS is in.

I just got off a call at 8 this morning where this was a central question and supported with numbers that were eye opening. CS held accounts for every dictator and ruthless gov't since inception and never froze assets or opened accounts until past 10yrs on latter and last year on former.

it's a game changer for them as we're seeing massive outflows all year post the announcement. 1+1 does equal 2

 

[Morrischiano]

CS has had issues but none that result in the actual death of the bank but the death knell was killing any sense of neutrality. The amount of outflows by various regions after the freezing of Russian assets is the nail. NO different than Chase, Citi, Wells, or BofA getting billions every hour of inflows where regionals are losing those (leads to bank failures). zero difference

I believe we discussed this way back when that where would be consequences. Can't maneuver if you don't have the cash to do so. Anyone who thinks Saudis are going to be all in after signing the brokered deal with China and Iran are fking delusional


and once again, POLITICS for those of you, hint hint looking at you, who refuse to accept or opine that importance of politics in mkts activity. fking leftists simply cannot accept reality but will live with the consequences. politics matter, smarten up

Greta Thunberg has her wealth management account with Credit Suisse Private Bank. #GetWokeGoBroke

 

[RUTGERS95]

It's been collapsing since 2008. It's a scandal ridden, poorly run bank and has been for a long time. Most European banks are the same.

They also have much more problematic issues with duration risk since they hold some assets that were issued at negative rates. Who is going to buy those?

they've survived because of their black accounts and non side taking approach to banking where every acct is simply that, an acct notwithstanding who is behind it. Freezing accounts has consequences for a bank of last resort that is no longer, the bank of last resort

I believe they quietly shutdown Priebke's personal acct only after he died for instance or something like that.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Swiz dropping neutrality was one of the dumbest things I've ever seen and the media barely covered it. I know there is a big push in the country to get back to neutrality. Hopefully they are successful.

agree,

the reason why it's not been reported or highlighted as much is (my belief) because people really lack critical thinking today.

just a dumb dumb move

 

[RUTGERS95]

JPMORGAN: "CPI doesn't really matter. What happened over the last 3 days has done Powell's job for him. Credit creation at banks will collapse & the economy will slow. Inflation will taper off as a result. Any rally on the view that the Fed doesn't need to raise anymore is silly. If they don't raise, it's because of systemic risk to the banking system. Not a positive."

if you all recall, I've been saying for over a year that credit allowances are the way to slow the economy. Rate hikes simply don't do it unless you shock the system with 200bp hikes and get it over.

 

[Morrischiano]

 

[mildone]

Also, when the investigation start in the real Congress, we will finally find the money laundering venues for the Hillary Clinton child sex trafficking rings.
I hear both SIVB and Signature was used.

Surely the Deep State is involved. Any day now, I'm expecting to hear all about upcoming eye-opening memos overflowing with evidence of how only hetero white males can run businesses and how it's the Deep State to blame for all instances of hetero white male business failures. You know, as opposed to the hetero white males themselves since, naturally, they are incapable of failing unlike all those diversity people who are obviously born to fail.

Oh, and since a few geniuses have decided to make it relevant, I'll just point out that it's been 2,244 days, 20 hours and 47 minutes without a Deep State indictment, let alone a conviction. Surely due to allowing diversity hires in the justice system.

If some of you don't like my post, don't blame me. I'm a hetero white male so it's not possible for me to be mistaken - but the Deep Diversity State is intercepting my posts and rewriting them.

Yeah, that's it. The DDS is to blame once again.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Greta Thunberg has her wealth management account with Credit Suisse Private Bank. #GetWokeGoBroke

pretty sure she banked at SVB because of the billions it spent on DEI and invested in ESG start-ups #HowDareYou

 

[ashokan]

Nobody does science like 12 yr olds and bartenders

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

The global hive mind is crazy.

 

[mildone]

It's amazing how easily bothered some folks are by what a 12 year old says. The CE board, at one time, had several threads in which a handful or so of totally well-adjusted deep thinkers heaped intense hate on this little girl.

That was hilarious to witness. And I can see, now, that she hasn't lost her power to reside deep in their heads. All those alpha males being trolled by a 12 year old girl. Still hilarious. 🤣

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

It's amazing how easily bothered some folks are by what a 12 year old says. The CE board, at one time, had several threads in which a handful or so of totally well-adjusted deep thinkers heaped intense hate on this little girl.

That was hilarious to witness. And I can see, now, that she hasn't lost her power to reside deep in their heads. All those alpha males being trolled by a 12 year old girl. Still hilarious. 🤣

huh? morris, certainly no alpha, brought her up here

 

[mildone]

Nobody does science like 12 yr olds and bartenders

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

The global hive mind is crazy.

You sure are woke about the global hive mind. Why oh why won't they just wake up?

 

[mildone]

huh? morris, certainly no alpha, brought her up here

Yeah, he did. To demonstrate how easy it is to troll some obsessed people.

Successfully, apparently. 😉

 

[RUAldo]

Feeling good about my cash position right now at 4.45%. But I did buy Schwab yesterday. Lots of insider buying, which is exact opposite of SVB where execs did nothing but sell the entire ride down.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Yeah, he did. To demonstrate how easy it is to troll some obsessed people.

Successfully, apparently. 😉

not seeing it

 

[rutgersdave]

No rate increase, credit tightening then recession and then lower rates?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Feeling good about my cash position right now at 4.45%. But I did buy Schwab yesterday. Lots of insider buying, which is exact opposite of SVB where execs did nothing but sell the entire ride down.

Schwab is a solid company. Buy the dip! My cash position doubled in the past week thanks to our new bonus/equity payouts. Figuring out a plan!

 

[T2Kplus20]

No rate increase then recession and then lower rates?

Isn't that how the story normally goes? LOL. Still doubt a real "recession" happening. Lots of consumer strength.

 

[RUDead]

No rate increase, credit tightening then recession and then lower rates?

ECB is up first. Can't wait to see what they do.

Powell gets to watch that before he makes any decisions.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Isn't that how the story normally goes? LOL. Still doubt a real "recession" happening. Lots of consumer strength.

I'll say that consumer strength is a false narrative when we see lending, revolving debt, and the like where it is. Auto loans have already started to crater in and that was the one are where in 08 that was a positive.

I do think the regional bank issues, even though there is fundamentally no issue now with Fed basically guaranteeing all deposits, will have the most impact.

I'm ok with bank failures and massive restriction of credit facilities. big time ok here

 

[ashokan]

It's amazing how easily bothered some folks are by what a 12 year old says. The CE board, at one time, had several threads in which a handful or so of totally well-adjusted deep thinkers heaped intense hate on this little girl.

That was hilarious to witness. And I can see, now, that she hasn't lost her power to reside deep in their heads. All those alpha males being trolled by a 12 year old girl. Still hilarious. 🤣

Nah the 12 yr old isn't the problem - its the millions of damaged/psychotic adults who seriously consider her an authority. I stopped debating weather change people who were increasingly linking to videos of Greta as if she was an avatar descended from heaven (formerly they often used to quote Jon Stewart and Colbert).

Right now there are farms in Europe being shut by psycho governments who are also banning fertilizers. They won't let "developing nations" use same energy production methods they used to develop (and still used by China). This how famines are being created. Superficial adults following 12 yr olds can get millions killed.

Biden’s lunatic bid to pay ‘poor nations’ for ‘climate reparations’

In a pathetic bid to “show results” from the latest global climate-change confab, the Biden administration signed on to a lunatic “climate reparations” scheme.

nypost.com

 

[ashokan]

US banks' assets worth $2TRILLION less than their accounts say: Study

The shortfall is made up of 'unrealized losses' like those which triggered the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, a study suggests.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[RUTGERS95]

ruh roh newsome.....

 

[bac2therac]

Nah the 12 yr old isn't the problem - its the millions of damaged/psychotic adults who seriously consider her an authority. I stopped debating weather change people who were increasingly linking to videos of Greta as if she was an avatar descended from heaven (formerly they often used to quote Jon Stewart and Colbert).

Right now there are farms in Europe being shut by psycho governments who are also banning fertilizers. They won't let "developing nations" use same energy production methods they used to develop (and still used by China). This how famines are being created. Superficial adults following 12 yr olds can get millions killed.

Biden’s lunatic bid to pay ‘poor nations’ for ‘climate reparations’

In a pathetic bid to “show results” from the latest global climate-change confab, the Biden administration signed on to a lunatic “climate reparations” scheme.

nypost.com

Bingo

 

[tom1944]

Nah the 12 yr old isn't the problem - its the millions of damaged/psychotic adults who seriously consider her an authority. I stopped debating weather change people who were increasingly linking to videos of Greta as if she was an avatar descended from heaven (formerly they often used to quote Jon Stewart and Colbert).

Right now there are farms in Europe being shut by psycho governments who are also banning fertilizers. They won't let "developing nations" use same energy production methods they used to develop (and still used by China). This how famines are being created. Superficial adults following 12 yr olds can get millions killed.

Biden’s lunatic bid to pay ‘poor nations’ for ‘climate reparations’

In a pathetic bid to “show results” from the latest global climate-change confab, the Biden administration signed on to a lunatic “climate reparations” scheme.

nypost.com

With your mention of fertilizer, it reminds me of a story from public radio the other day about life expectancy.

During the discussion they discussed the big factors that lead to such a large increase. 100 years ago life expectancy was between 35-40 worldwide and now no country is below 45 and the vast majority over 60. I believe they said the average was over 70 so double from just a 100 years ago.

The 2 big movers on that were the development of toilets and sewers systems and the development of fertilizer.

Fertilizer basically ended famines.

And isn't Greta just a marketing play to get news coverage not the expert people should listen to beyond bringing climate issues to people's attention?

 

[rutgersdave]

Isn't that how the story normally goes? LOL. Still doubt a real "recession" happening. Lots of consumer strength.

You always leave out the recession and want to go immediately to lower rates.

 

[T2Kplus20]

You always leave out the recession and want to go immediately to lower rates.

We already had the recession. First half of 2022. Remember, market is forward looking. If we get another mild recession, it will be the most expected and baked in one in history.

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

We already had the recession. First half of 2022. Remember, market is forward looking. If we get another mild recession, it will be the most expected and baked in one in history.

June 10, 2008: Goldman's Cohen: mild recession at worst

Many were saying the same thing; including Bill Gross and Alan Greenspan.

I’m not suggesting we’re in for something terrible. And I’m still at the stage in my life where I can be long either way; only pointing out (to paraphrase Buffett) that you don’t know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out.

What’s obvious in hindsight is sometimes obscured by the conditions / assumptions blinding us in the present.

 

[mildone]

So back on topic, and perhaps timely...

I'm curious about something. Presumably, at least some, if not most, of you keep a decent amount of cash sitting around in one or more domestic banks for liquidity reasons. How do you choose which bank(s) to keep that money in? Not talking about overseas banking which is a different and more complex discussion.

The larger banks (e.g. JPM Chase) pay crap for interest, but are arguably safer. Smaller banks (e.g. Capital One), especially pure online banks (e.g. Ally Bank), pay vastly better interest but are theoretically less safe (although still FDIC insured).

I mean, do y'all use Moody's or Fitch ratings or what? Or do you not GAF just so long as you split the cash across enough banks to limit balances at any one institution to the FDIC limit of $250K per person?

Not asking about anybody's specific choices (although if you want to name names, feel free). Just curious in people's selection methodology or thinking on the subject.

 

[Joey Bags]

The Fed has three words for you: Unlimited Liquidity Injection.

On a side note, found out the owner of the Berkley hotel in Asbury Park had all of their banking through SVB and cannot pay employees and transact with vendors. Apparently the timeline for depositors getting the >250k amounts back is essentially TBD.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Nah the 12 yr old isn't the problem - its the millions of damaged/psychotic adults who seriously consider her an authority. I stopped debating weather change people who were increasingly linking to videos of Greta as if she was an avatar descended from heaven (formerly they often used to quote Jon Stewart and Colbert).

Right now there are farms in Europe being shut by psycho governments who are also banning fertilizers. They won't let "developing nations" use same energy production methods they used to develop (and still used by China). This how famines are being created. Superficial adults following 12 yr olds can get millions killed.

Biden’s lunatic bid to pay ‘poor nations’ for ‘climate reparations’

In a pathetic bid to “show results” from the latest global climate-change confab, the Biden administration signed on to a lunatic “climate reparations” scheme.

nypost.com

Yup. And the CE alphas mocked those posters falling in-line with her, not "heaping hate" on her. Bad take by mild. But let's move on.

 

[RUTGERS95]

So back on topic, and perhaps timely...

I'm curious about something. Presumably, at least some, if not most, of you keep a decent amount of cash sitting around in one or more domestic banks for liquidity reasons. How do you choose which bank(s) to keep that money in? Not talking about overseas banking which is a different and more complex discussion.

The larger banks (e.g. JPM Chase) pay crap for interest, but are arguably safer. Smaller banks (e.g. Capital One), especially pure online banks (e.g. Ally Bank), pay vastly better interest but are theoretically less safe (although still FDIC insured).

I mean, do y'all use Moody's or Fitch ratings or what? Or do you not GAF just so long as you split the cash across enough banks to limit balances at any one institution to the FDIC limit of $250K per person?

Not asking about anybody's specific choices (although if you want to name names, feel free). Just curious in people's selection methodology or thinking on the subject.

I'm smart, I don't keep cash around for liquidity purposes. My money works:)

 

[RUTGERS95]

So back on topic, and perhaps timely...

I'm curious about something. Presumably, at least some, if not most, of you keep a decent amount of cash sitting around in one or more domestic banks for liquidity reasons. How do you choose which bank(s) to keep that money in? Not talking about overseas banking which is a different and more complex discussion.

The larger banks (e.g. JPM Chase) pay crap for interest, but are arguably safer. Smaller banks (e.g. Capital One), especially pure online banks (e.g. Ally Bank), pay vastly better interest but are theoretically less safe (although still FDIC insured).

I mean, do y'all use Moody's or Fitch ratings or what? Or do you not GAF just so long as you split the cash across enough banks to limit balances at any one institution to the FDIC limit of $250K per person?

Not asking about anybody's specific choices (although if you want to name names, feel free). Just curious in people's selection methodology or thinking on the subject.

but to address the risk profile

moody's doesn't matter, the gov't has already told you that Chase, Citi, BofA, and Wells are as good as gov't debt

 

[RUinPinehurst]

We already had the recession. First half of 2022. Remember, market is forward looking. If we get another mild recession, it will be the most expected and baked in one in history.

Your bud, Tom Lee, on CNBC just admitted short-term pain and expecting recession.

 

[RUTGERS95]

The Fed has three words for you: Unlimited Liquidity Injection.

On a side note, found out the owner of the Berkley hotel in Asbury Park had all of their banking through SVB and cannot pay employees and transact with vendors. Apparently the timeline for depositors getting the >250k amounts back is essentially TBD.

should I even laugh that in Asbury Park, he had his payroll funds in svb? lol dolt deserves this

 

[RUinPinehurst]

So back on topic, and perhaps timely...

I'm curious about something. Presumably, at least some, if not most, of you keep a decent amount of cash sitting around in one or more domestic banks for liquidity reasons. How do you choose which bank(s) to keep that money in? Not talking about overseas banking which is a different and more complex discussion.

The larger banks (e.g. JPM Chase) pay crap for interest, but are arguably safer. Smaller banks (e.g. Capital One), especially pure online banks (e.g. Ally Bank), pay vastly better interest but are theoretically less safe (although still FDIC insured).

I mean, do y'all use Moody's or Fitch ratings or what? Or do you not GAF just so long as you split the cash across enough banks to limit balances at any one institution to the FDIC limit of $250K per person?

Not asking about anybody's specific choices (although if you want to name names, feel free). Just curious in people's selection methodology or thinking on the subject.

4-week Treasuries mainly for cash. Stagger them for liquidity. But also laddering 13-week Ts, too. In terms of cash, most brokerage accounts feature "settlement accounts" that offer attractive returns. Vanguard, for example, around 4.5%. Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX).

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

The PPI data is interesting. I really hope they allow some competent reporters in there to ask questions next week. Going to be the highest rates fed presser in some time

 

[mildone]

I'm smart, I don't keep cash around for liquidity purposes. My money works:)

I see. Well, for sure we can see that you keep some self-congratulatory commentary sitting around so you can instantly use it to leap at opportunities to inform us of your high view of yourself. 🙂

 

[T2Kplus20]

The Fed has three words for you: Unlimited Liquidity Injection.

On a side note, found out the owner of the Berkley hotel in Asbury Park had all of their banking through SVB and cannot pay employees and transact with vendors. Apparently the timeline for depositors getting the >250k amounts back is essentially TBD.

QE3 in 3, 2, 1.....
😜