Powell is wrong given it's tied to labor costs. Can't believe Powell doesn't know this
Good Ole Rockoff would hang him after his coffee is done if he were watching
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Good Ole Rockoff would hang him after his coffee is done if he were watching
I think we all learned that Powell and the Fed are dumb. :)
you and many really have no idea just how bad they are.
Not enough Wizard of Oz and Free Silver Debate around here...
There is this bizarre assumption that the people that work at the Fed and these Gov’t agencies are intelligent and competent. F’in morons. No different than in your High School w/ teachers or College w/ professors. Some of them are good. Others, you wonder how they ever earned their degree and who would hire them. Powell has proven he’s a total idiot. He’s the Anthony Fauci of Finance.
Deutsche Bank is not the next Credit Suisse, analysts say as panic spreads
Central banks and regulators had hoped that the Credit Suisse rescue deal would help calm investor jitters about the stability of Europe's banks.
Deutsche Bank is not the next Credit Suisse, analysts say as panic spreads
Central banks and regulators had hoped that the Credit Suisse rescue deal would help calm investor jitters about the stability of Europe's banks.www.cnbc.com
It's much worse than CS.
Between the 2, I would’ve expected it to be DB instead of CS but we’ll see how it shakes out if anything.
the kicker is that the bundesbank cares for the 4 regional landesbanks and would let DB fall
The smaller ponzi gets rolled first.
I also think being part of the Euro matters too. Great Britain had problems in the fall and then Switzerland. The EU is doing everything it can to protect the countries in the Euro. They will eventually run out of bullets.
They will protect the Death Star at all costs. It's so big the only option they have will be to nationalize.
but that's just it, it's not big enough to fracture German Banking and it's not big enough to create a void in the swaps mkts being a smaller player on the global scene. Pain yes but not insurmountable.
It might not be but the EU will try to keep it alive. At some point the Germans may wake up and realize that being part of the Euro might not be in their best interest. Then things will get really interesting.
Europe is so different than the US and every other country. They rely on the individual Central Banks to print the Euro and if Germany says NEIN! then they can't do much about it.
German citizens are pissed about Nordstream and France has been rioting all week. It's getting interesting in Europe.
Agree with one big difference. Inflation that they can't control that is also making everything worse.
So we can just manifest 2% inflation by expecting and believing it. Maybe if we all expect and believe Salma finally takes her bra off next time we get a football commitment, it’ll happen?
Oh I agree on the should have part. The free money thing for so long was crazy policy dave.
The difference though is that investments could have been managed better vs. this alpine swiss amusement part ride where you go round in circles bouncing from side to side in a whiplash.
And as much as they should have they didn't and we got kinda lucky. What they should have done is no reason for the current policy. They could have gotten lucky chumming the waters and now just putting more line out.
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Why there may be no return to 'normal' for the U.S. used vehicle market
A notable decline in used vehicle prices toward the end of last year has been roughly cut in half in 2023, as inventories remain lower and prices are high.
Inflation is over right?
Base case was always a recession. Economy is being undergirded by federal infrastructure spending, which has been ramping up rapidly (aka this isn’t ‘45’s-“let’s try to reignite dying industries such the coal industry,” free-money, low-growth economy any longer).
Best used cars to buy in 2024: From trucks and SUVs to EVs
The best used cars to buy in 2024 include small and midsize cars, trucks, crossovers and SUVs, and even a couple of used electric cars.
people are priced out of new car market? But inflation is over.
Jeremy Siegal, the Kim Kardashian of Financial TV....
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My wife currently pays $700 p/mo for her 2020 SUV. She went to dealer to look at same car current model year and lease was almost $1500. Dealer said leases are dead. You basically have to buy cars now. Needless to say we’ll just buy out her lease in a few months and drive it for a couple years or sell it on our own.
Best used cars to buy in 2024: From trucks and SUVs to EVs
The best used cars to buy in 2024 include small and midsize cars, trucks, crossovers and SUVs, and even a couple of used electric cars.www.yahoo.com
people are priced out of new car market? But inflation is over.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research released its 3-6-12 month targets.
Interesting projections for 12 months out:
SP500: 4000
10Yr: 4.12
WTI: 89
Interesting projections for 12 months out:
SP500: 4000
10Yr: 4.12
WTI: 89
"Mind-boggling math" haunting pensions (spesh public).
rumble.com
Derivative tracker hacked a few weeks ago.
NOW the regulators want to update - they've been "ridin dirty" to coin a phrase.
"Third parties"..apps...subcontractors - thats how the bad stuff get around
"Derivatives shops, used to clearing hundreds of billions of dollars in trades every day, were forced to process trades manually after ION Trading UK — a little known company with technology that underpins the smooth functioning of markets — succumbed to a cyberattack earlier this year. While the company has rolled out new software for its clients, the ripple effects are still being felt...
The top US derivatives regulator wants to update standards and monitoring systems that will help minimize the frequency and magnitude of hacks. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is pushing for futures and swaps dealers to exercise more due diligence and oversight of the third-party service providers they work with, and requiring that they have a plan for responding to cyber incidents from the first day."
www.insurancejournal.com
Stephanie Pomboy: Years Of Reckless Monetary Policy Has Destroyed Americans’ Retirement Pensions
Stephanie Pomboy: Years Of Reckless Monetary Policy Has Destroyed Americans’ Retirement Pensions
rumble.com
Derivative tracker hacked a few weeks ago.
NOW the regulators want to update - they've been "ridin dirty" to coin a phrase.
"Third parties"..apps...subcontractors - thats how the bad stuff get around
"Derivatives shops, used to clearing hundreds of billions of dollars in trades every day, were forced to process trades manually after ION Trading UK — a little known company with technology that underpins the smooth functioning of markets — succumbed to a cyberattack earlier this year. While the company has rolled out new software for its clients, the ripple effects are still being felt...
The top US derivatives regulator wants to update standards and monitoring systems that will help minimize the frequency and magnitude of hacks. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is pushing for futures and swaps dealers to exercise more due diligence and oversight of the third-party service providers they work with, and requiring that they have a plan for responding to cyber incidents from the first day."
The Hack That Upended Derivatives Trading Spurs Calls for Action
A cyberattack that disrupted derivatives trading in January is prompting calls for more oversight to combat the risk of hacks across financial markets.
www.insurancejournal.com
GS jumped the gun after SVB. They predicted no more rate increases and high probability of 100 bps rate cut this year after SVB. Not their finest
They are working overtime to salt the prediction ecosystem with rate cut expectations.
No but I'm curious how that attracted your attention. Do you have a basket of stocks that you follow or was this a recommendation from someone?
Blue horseshoe…….
Couldn't say exactly how it appeared on the radar. Perhaps initially after a few references in financial news following an acquisition from DuPont late last fall. That aside, I always maintain a "watch list" of sorts.
Not following, but from Morningstar:
Maintaining $160 FVE as Celanese Reports Fourth-Quarter Results; Shares Undervalued
Analyst Note | Updated Feb 24, 2023
After updating our model to incorporate Celanese's fourth-quarter results, we maintain our $160 per share fair value estimate. Our narrow moat rating is also unchanged.
Although management guided to a lower outlook in 2023 than the initial view presented during the company's third quarter earnings call, the midpoint of adjusted EPS guidance was slightly above the consensus mean based on PitchBook data. As such, the market reacted positively to the outlook, with shares up 2% at the time of writing on a day when the broader market is down 1.5%.
However, at current prices, we view Celanese shares as undervalued, with the stock trading more than 25% below our fair value estimate and in 4-star territory. As a result, we view current prices as a good entry point for long-term investors to pick up shares of the high-quality specialty chemicals producer.
In our view, an economic slowdown in 2023 will represent a cyclical bottom for Celanese's earnings, after reaching a peak in 2021. Thereafter, we expect Celanese will be well positioned to generate strong results driven by volume growth for its downstream engineered materials as the company integrates the recently acquired DuPont mobility and materials business. As global auto builds recover and electric vehicle adoption grows, Celanese is well-positioned to see long-term profit growth.
We have also updated our Morningstar Uncertainty Rating for Celanese to High from Medium. The change is to reflect a wide range of outcomes due to Celanese's elevated debt levels and the continued volatility of energy prices. This can greatly affect the company's more-commoditized acetyl chain business.
Business Strategy and Outlook | Updated Feb 24, 2023
Celanese is the world's largest producer of acetic acid and its chemical derivatives, including vinyl acetate monomer and emulsions. These products are used in the company’s specialized end products or sold externally. Celanese produces these commodity chemicals in its acetyl chain segment (roughly 65% of 2022 pro forma EBITDA including acquisitions), which primarily serves the automotive, cigarette, coatings, building and construction, and medical end markets. Celanese's Clear Lake, Texas, plant benefits from a cost advantaged feedstock from low-cost U.S. natural gas. The company plans to expand acetic acid production capacity at Clear Lake by roughly 50%, which should benefit segment margins thanks to lower unit production costs relative to other geographies.
The engineered materials, or EM, segment (35%) produces specialty polymers for a wide variety of end markets. Celanese is investing in the expansion of this business through acquisition. The company acquired Santoprene in late 2021 and acquired the majority of DuPont's mobility and materials portfolio in late 2022. Both deals add complementary products to Celanese's existing portfolio. Going forward, the EM segment should generate roughly 50% of profits in 2023 and grow to account for the majority of profits thereafter.
The automotive industry will account for the majority of EM segment revenue, while other key end markets include electronics. EM uses commodity chemicals, such as acetic acid, methanol, and ethylene to produce specialty polymers. Celanese should benefit from automakers lightweighting vehicles, or replacing small metal pieces with lighter plastic pieces. Celanese should also see growth from increasing electric vehicle and hybrid adoption, as the company will sell multiple components specific to these powertrains. By 2030, we forecast two thirds of all new global auto sales will be EVs or hybrids.
Fair Value and Profit Drivers | Updated Feb 24, 2023
Our fair value estimate is $160 per share. Our valuation assumes an 8.2% weighted average cost of capital. The marginal cost sources for many of Celanese’s commodity chemicals are oil-based naphtha or higher-cost European or Asian natural gas. However, Celanese produces the majority of its chemicals from low-cost U.S. natural gas feedstock. As such, the company benefits from a wider spread between U.S. natural gas and either Brent oil or European and Asian natural gases.
As the company integrates the DuPont and Santoprene acquisitions, we expect EBITDA margins in the engineered materials segment to grow from the low to mid-20% range on a pro forma basis to the high-20% range in a midcycle environment. We think Celanese will capture the majority of cost-saving synergies from the DuPont deal, leading to margin expansion over time.
We forecast the acetyl chain segment to see lower profits versus the cyclical peak in 2021 due to strong demand and tight supply conditions. While profits fell in 2022, we expect conditions will continue to moderate, leading to another step down in 2023. By the middle of the decade, we forecast the business will grow slowly in a midcycle environment due to exposure to mostly mature end markets. We expect EBITDA margins for the acetyl chain business, which primarily sells acetic acid, to fall back to the mid-20s from the 38% level achieved in 2021 (including the acetate tow business which is now a part of acetyl chain).
In a scenario where Celanese sees prolonged volume decline due to an economic slowdown and an EU natural gas shortage, we would forecast revenue growth to average low-single-digits, while operating margins would fall from lower capacity utilization. This scenario also assumes a tepid recovery from the slowdown. Our fair value estimate would fall to $90 per share.
Additional ideas for value investors!
www.morningstar.com
6 Undervalued Consumer Defensive Stocks
These wide-moat consumer defensive stocks are trading at discounted prices.
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