Two days later and I can say I'm still having issues comprehending the concepts of 2% and Salma's boobs in the same post.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Luv ya man but thats too NewJerseyHawk like for this thread lol. Holy crap. 😁
Ha, was listening to it yesterday, knew you would enjoy it.
I'm a huge MO guyAdditional ideas for value investors!
6 Undervalued Consumer Defensive Stocks
These wide-moat consumer defensive stocks are trading at discounted prices.www.morningstar.com
got in at over 9% Div Yield (still ~8%)+the growth.... they've handled most of the Juul exposure - and working on new smokeless and stoner options.
You fancy internetgrowth guys are masters of the universe... But, you can't beat a tasty Dividend Check every quarter.
lung darts rock!
JMO
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@RUDead
www.yahoo.com
Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for regional banks and the stock market
"If we fail to act, we risk a systemic crisis with our banking system & particularly the regional banks," Scott Rechler said.
All the technical gymnastics aside, it seems obvious the cartels in DC want a digital control currency, and they are willing to break eggs to get it. Little of our economic travails were natural - all were man made by people leaving a massive wake of destruction. All the concern for spending/inflation but just before Silicon collapse (and it was known months ago bank was a mess) but the budget proposal is almost 7 trillion? Geez. Barbarians inside the gate and outside the gate working together. China, Russia an others stacking gold and know what's coming. Alas - all that aside watch Israel and ME - very tense there and media is practically silent
"Edward Dowd, Founder of Phinance Technologies and former BlackRock fund manager, and Michelle Makori, Editor-in-Chief and Lead Anchor at Kitco News, discuss the Federal Reserve's latest rate hikes, and why Dowd thinks Fed Chair Powell will be "forced" to cut rates by June of 2023, leading to a "controlled implosion" of the banking sector. Dowd forecasts that as banks consolidate, only 6 major banks will be left standing by 2025, paving the way for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), digital fiat tokens issued and controlled by central banks."
"Edward Dowd, Founder of Phinance Technologies and former BlackRock fund manager, and Michelle Makori, Editor-in-Chief and Lead Anchor at Kitco News, discuss the Federal Reserve's latest rate hikes, and why Dowd thinks Fed Chair Powell will be "forced" to cut rates by June of 2023, leading to a "controlled implosion" of the banking sector. Dowd forecasts that as banks consolidate, only 6 major banks will be left standing by 2025, paving the way for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), digital fiat tokens issued and controlled by central banks."
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@RUDead
Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for regional banks and the stock market
"If we fail to act, we risk a systemic crisis with our banking system & particularly the regional banks," Scott Rechler said.
Thanks.
Seems like the media all figured out there is an issue in CRE this weekend. RXR asking for a bailout. LOL.
I wonder if there is an opportunity to arb the price discrepancy between public and private CRE marks?
The media is just catching on but it’s the worst kept secret (not even a secret) for people in the business. CRE market is upside down right now. Meaning debt makes more sense than equity. Arb is hard to find because it’s not a liquid asset and not really commoditized.
Venture Capital attempting
finance.yahoo.com
Some VC and private equity firms are turning toward strategies to “extend” and “pretend,” meaning they would hold on to assets or prop up capital to avoid true price discovery, Patankar added in a Friday interview. Examples of this include net asset value loans that let general partners borrow against a pool of portfolio companies within a fund, GP-led secondary structures where a fund sponsor sells one or more assets from a fund it already manages to a new fund, and alternative financing via private credit.
SVB Collapse Could Mean a $500 Billion Venture Capital ‘Haircut’
(Bloomberg) -- The $2 trillion venture capital industry could see portfolio markdowns of 25% to 30% — a “haircut” of possibly $500 billion — following the Silicon Valley Bank debacle, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Most Read from BloombergGreenland Solves the Daylight Saving Time DebateUS...
Some VC and private equity firms are turning toward strategies to “extend” and “pretend,” meaning they would hold on to assets or prop up capital to avoid true price discovery, Patankar added in a Friday interview. Examples of this include net asset value loans that let general partners borrow against a pool of portfolio companies within a fund, GP-led secondary structures where a fund sponsor sells one or more assets from a fund it already manages to a new fund, and alternative financing via private credit.
What a crazy 3 weeks for the US2Y. From 5 handle to 3 handle straddling a period when the Fed raised rates.
@RUDead
www.yahoo.com
even Musk is jumping on the wagon
Elon Musk says the state of the commercial real estate debt market is ‘by far the most serious looming issue’
Not only is Elon Musk worried about troubled commercial real estate loans maturing during a period of spiked interest rates. He says it's the next crisis.
even Musk is jumping on the wagon
Great job Fed. They are really screwing up a lot of sectors.@RUDead
Elon Musk says the state of the commercial real estate debt market is ‘by far the most serious looming issue’
Not only is Elon Musk worried about troubled commercial real estate loans maturing during a period of spiked interest rates. He says it's the next crisis.
even Musk is jumping on the wagon
A friend got a story in NYT Business section
Its about handling finances of a sick parent
She's a beaut
www.nytimes.com
Its about handling finances of a sick parent
She's a beaut
I Took Over My Father’s Finances at 25. The Lessons Were Hard-Won.
Many adult children end up caring for their parents late in life. But when the role reversal happens in their 20s and 30s, the burden can feel too much to bear.
@T2Kplus20 ...What's goin on with BLUE? Do they have major problems or just a temporary blip?
They are having some serious problems. They were completely unprepared for the commercial launch of their 2 gene therapies (which were approved in the fall). This is not totally unexpected. They essentially ran out of money prior to FDA approval and was hanging on for dear life. Only the 2 preferred vouchers that they sold for about $200m saved the day.
Bottom line, they missed on their treatment/sales goal because sites were not ready to administer the products. This is slowly coming online, so I assume the situation will improve over the next 3-6 months. I would nibble now and buy more under $3 if this is your play. The bar is being set so low for BLUE that any positive news will pop the stock.
There is demand for their products.
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How do these gov’t slugs keep their jobs? They should be fired immediately as they are no better than the crooks running the banks!
“Despite U.S. regulators having clear knowledge of insufficient risk management, it seems the examiners and your supervisors were asleep at the wheel while signs that Silicon Valley Bank was heading towards a collapse were staring them right in the face for many, many months,” Rep. Ann Wagner, R-Mo., said to Barr.
“Despite U.S. regulators having clear knowledge of insufficient risk management, it seems the examiners and your supervisors were asleep at the wheel while signs that Silicon Valley Bank was heading towards a collapse were staring them right in the face for many, many months,” Rep. Ann Wagner, R-Mo., said to Barr.
Looks like expectations are for them to have monster rev growth in up coming years. 2022 was way off previous years though. 40ish mil in both 2019 and 2021(over $250 mill in 2020, but that looks to be an anomoly of sorts and not normal business rev's), but only 3.6mil in 2022.
Expectations of 80 mil, 150mil and 250 mill in the upcoming years. How realistic are those #'s?
Bottomed out at around $3 in early 2022, which look to be it's all time lows.
Current market cap of $330mil.
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One of the strangest months (without a complete financial meltdown) on record......
Those 5% treasuries are gone..as are any 5.4+% CDs.............
now, I continue to expect Fed to +.25 in May (tho I know the markets disagree with me...).
Perhaps we'll see some credit rates rise again before we get to the other side of whatever this rate/liquidity/credit episode turns-out to be..........
hope some of you low-risk guys got in on the 5%+ when u could...
when a bank has no risk officer, but a fully staffed DEI dept... and the local regulators get invited to all the best parties....
A solid upward trend in stock price since Covid(on which it's on the lower end of the range, so maybe a good entry point on that front) but a longer term downward trend since 2017.
Very modest Rev's and EPS growth expected.
Looks like as safe a haven as you could get.
Bob Pisani has been noting that early earnings calls from the likes of Micron and Lulu have been better then expectations, and analysts have actually raised expectations looking ahead.
Which is counter to a commonly held market narrative amongst the bears.
Which is counter to a commonly held market narrative amongst the bears.
Funny that you use a quote from a gov't official to back up your point.
I don't think it's fair to say a "collapse was staring them right in the face". Sure they had way too high an allocation towards long term low yield treasuries, but a run on the bank was not something anyone was predicting.
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Is that $80m for 2023? That's only about 40 treated patients (their GTxs are $2-3m per patient). It's doable, but more treatment sites need to be trained and brought online. I don't know what the status of their manufacturing capacity is, but once again, patient demand is robust enough to meet those revenue expectations.
This is a company that won't go to $0. The 2 FDA approvals are valuable and BLUE will get bought even if their commercial operation fails. I traded BLUE from $3 to $7 last year around FDA approval. May be worth another go soon. :)
My guess is one more light Q for BLUE and then they will report some real patient counts (treated with product).
I’m covering my SPY short position today. I believe the worst is behind us.
The Fed has done a good job on peak inflation. I think they are well positioned to raise rates one more time and then holding until one negative GDP print. In this scenario, I don’t think we go to October lows. I think that we dick around this area before heading higher in May.
I’ll be looking for single stocks to buy starting Monday. I’ll post my trades.
The Fed has done a good job on peak inflation. I think they are well positioned to raise rates one more time and then holding until one negative GDP print. In this scenario, I don’t think we go to October lows. I think that we dick around this area before heading higher in May.
I’ll be looking for single stocks to buy starting Monday. I’ll post my trades.
I’m not a bear. Just a prudent investor. I protect my gains during times of great uncertainty or market hubris. Things have stabilized/clarified in the last 2 months
Good article on BLUE:
Investors Take Flight After Bluebird Bio’s Sickle Cell Delay | Scrip | March 30, 2023
Executive Summary
Bluebird’s first two gene therapies are on the market, but a new delay to its biggest hope, the sickle cell disease candidate lovo-cell, has spooked investors.
Bluebird Bio has seen its share price drop by 25% after the company announced a further delay to the filing of its sickle cell disease gene therapy candidate, lovotibeglogene autotemcel, or lovo-cel.
The US biotech had expected to file with the US Food and Drug Administration by the end of this week, but announced on 29 March that this would now been delayed by at least a few weeks.
Timing is significant as Bluebird is in a race to market with a rival sickle cell disease (SCD) candidate, Vertex and CRISPR Therapeutics’s exagamglogene autotemcel (exa-cel), which began a rolling submission in November.
The news added to long-running problems at the gene therapy company and its potentially most lucrative candidate. Lovo-cel’s filing was previously set back 12 months in late 2020 when the FDA requested more data on planned manufacturing processes for the gene therapy.
The latest sell-off left its share price at $3.12, representing a 97% decline over the past five years, a period which included the spin-off of its oncology portfolio as 2seventy Bio, Inc.. (Also see "Bluebird Spinoff 2seventy Bio Gets Its Own Wings" - Scrip, 19 Oct, 2021.)
Speaking on its Q4 call with analysts, Bluebird CEO Andrew Obenshain said the company was likely to miss a target to file in Q1, but believed lovo-cel was still on track for a likely early 2024 launch.
Bluebird also recently launched its first two gene therapies onto the US market – transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia treatment Zynteglo (betibeglogene autotemcel) and Skysona (elivaldogene autotemcel) for rare disease cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy – priced at $2.8m and $3m respectively.
The company provided an update of the first handfuls of commercial patients undergoing cell collection in preparation to receive the treatments, but Bluebird will not report any revenues until Q1 results in May.
Updated Gene Therapy Manufacturing Queried
The delay to lovo-cel’s filing centers on a drug product comparability analysis which Bluebird submitted to the FDA in December. The company recently introduced a new and improved approach to manufacturing the gene therapy, but needs to demonstrate to the US regulator that a new method produces comparable product to that used in its pivotal trials.
The FDA gave feedback to Bluebird last month, and posed further questions that it wants to see answered before the company begins its filings. The company has now provided the regulator with a full chemistry, manufacturing, and controls module, along with responses to the extra queries. Obenshain said there was no timeline for the FDA to respond, but that it had committed itself to a “timely response”.
He added that the full filing was otherwise complete and ready for submission, and expressed confidence in its pivotal trial data in SCD.
Bluebird’s filing will be based on the efficacy results from 36 patients in the HGB-206 Group C cohort and will include a median of 32 months of follow-up and more than 4.5 years of follow-up for some patients. It also expects to include efficacy results from two patients with 18 months of follow-up in the HGB-210 study.
Bluebird believes it is in good shape to be a long-term leader in the field. Obenshain highlighted the fact that it now has 12 activated qualified treatment centers (QTCs) in the US up and running for Skysona and Zynteglo, with a further 30 preparing to come on stream.
Obenshain said having these centers set up to deliver Zynteglo for beta thalassemia would “directly translate” into allowing it to bring lovo-cel to patients with the closely related disease SCD. This, Bluebird believes, will give it an advantage over Vertex.
“We will have the same treating physicians, the same QTC network and the same payer relationships,” said Obenshain. “Bluebird has over a year head start, launching a gene therapy on inherited hemoglobin disorders versus any other gene therapy program.”
Analysts at SVB Securities were however pessimistic on the latest developments, and reduced their ‘possibility of success’ rating for lovo-cel in SCD to 50% from 70%, reflecting the uncertainty around the FDA’s information request and submission delay.
A further cause for concern was the company’s disclosure in a 10-K filing that a patient previously involved in the lovo-cel partial clinical hold had been diagnosed with myelodysplastic syndrome, a type of rare blood cancer. However, the patient has been reported to have no need for interventional therapy or transfusions, and there was no evidence of insertional oncogenesis, a risk linked to gene therapy.
Dane Leone, analyst at Raymond James, took a more phlegmatic approach to the news, commenting that the lovo-cel CMC issues seemed “straightforward" and saw no significant concerns about the MDS, concluding that “the current negative stock reaction is over-done.”
The next significant development in the market is likely to be news from Vertex/CRISPR Therapeutics. The companies had predicted their filing of exo-cel would be completed in Q1, but without any update as yet, look likely to run over into Q2.
Still hearing a persistent school of thought that a recession is virtually guaranteed starting in third or fourth quarter this year that likely won't be deep but will have a long tail. Had a work meeting yesterday (financial services industry) where that was the consensus among senior leadership.
Having trouble understanding how this would impact markets. There is a 50/50 split in opinions; some have the mindset that this was priced in since last fall and the markets should remain flat or slowly increase over the course of the recession and others think there will be another wave down, possibly even a significant wave down if a credit crunch materializes. I was targeting now to get back into more stable market funds like SPY and QQQ but this is giving me a bit of pause.
Having trouble understanding how this would impact markets. There is a 50/50 split in opinions; some have the mindset that this was priced in since last fall and the markets should remain flat or slowly increase over the course of the recession and others think there will be another wave down, possibly even a significant wave down if a credit crunch materializes. I was targeting now to get back into more stable market funds like SPY and QQQ but this is giving me a bit of pause.
You likely missed out on the lows, but both are still at attractive entry points. Unless you are in retirement or very close to it, you should have been buying over the past year.
I've been in a unique personal situation where we bought our first home last year, and I closed out all my active non-retirement positions December of 2021 which was in hindsight an incredible decision at the time given things were generally in ATHs across the board to put into a nice little home reno fund. Now that we've completed most of the work, it's time to start getting back into a more normal investment posture. I'm fine with missing the lows, I'm only 32 so my investment time horizon is much longer.
Sounds good. Are you only interested in broad index funds or etfs? If yes, I would start buying and do some DCA'ing. I'm sure the markets will bounce around a bit, but as inflation continues to come down, the market should positively respond, especially the QQQ.
A recession is so baked in it is like old news already! :)
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