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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

I wanted to buy more Vanguard Small Cap - VB early last week... it was around 175/share, jumped to 180, and i put an order in at 178/share.... sure enough it's up to 188-189 now... trying to decide if i just buy it now at this price, or keep waiting hoping for a dip. it's more mental than anything else, not really material
 
I wanted to buy more Vanguard Small Cap - VB early last week... it was around 175/share, jumped to 180, and i put an order in at 178/share.... sure enough it's up to 188-189 now... trying to decide if i just buy it now at this price, or keep waiting hoping for a dip. it's more mental than anything else, not really material
I own a lot of VB (converted some to UWM, but that's another story!). I have been buying this dip hard and will likely do some more today. Small caps are at historically low valuations. You can't go wrong at these levels if you are holding for a while.

If you are not sure, buy half now and wait on the other half. It doesn't have to be an all or nothing decision.
 
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Still hearing a persistent school of thought that a recession is virtually guaranteed starting in third or fourth quarter this year that likely won't be deep but will have a long tail. Had a work meeting yesterday (financial services industry) where that was the consensus among senior leadership.

Having trouble understanding how this would impact markets. There is a 50/50 split in opinions; some have the mindset that this was priced in since last fall and the markets should remain flat or slowly increase over the course of the recession and others think there will be another wave down, possibly even a significant wave down if a credit crunch materializes. I was targeting now to get back into more stable market funds like SPY and QQQ but this is giving me a bit of pause.
I don’t know if the market is going that much lower since everyone must have lower their quarterly forecast for the last three quarters and they should be achievable. I think we are in a range that I have been trading. The Fangs stocks are back. Some of the medicals and drugs stocks are moving. Getting very close to recovering to ATH, slowly chipping away at any loss and putting more money to work. Money got to make the money.

BAC S&P projection in a decade is only 4,500. Going to need to pick individual stocks instead of the index to make good money.
 
I don’t know if the market is going that much lower since everyone must have lower their quarterly forecast for the last three quarters and they should be achievable. I think we are in a range that I have been trading. The Fangs stocks are back. Some of the medicals and drugs stocks are moving. Getting very close to recovering to ATH, slowly chipping away at any loss and putting more money to work. Money got to make the money.

BAC S&P projection in a decade is only 4,500. Going to need to pick individual stocks instead of the index to make good money.
BAC projection = LOL!
S&P 500 = $10-12k by the end of the decade

Loaded the boat on HC and biotech during this recent defensive dip.
 
I don’t know if the market is going that much lower since everyone must have lower their quarterly forecast for the last three quarters and they should be achievable. I think we are in a range that I have been trading. The Fangs stocks are back. Some of the medicals and drugs stocks are moving. Getting very close to recovering to ATH, slowly chipping away at any loss and putting more money to work. Money got to make the money.

BAC S&P projection in a decade is only 4,500. Going to need to pick individual stocks instead of the index to make good money.
Nobody knows what things will be like in a decade. To pretend that you can forecast the SP500 in a decade is laughable. All we know is that historically, a diversified portfolio of equities has outperformed other alternatives that are available and should continue to do so.
 
Nobody knows what things will be like in a decade. To pretend that you can forecast the SP500 in a decade is laughable. All we know is that historically, a diversified portfolio of equities has outperformed other alternatives that are available and should continue to do so.
I think they have to forecast for the next decade or they wouldn’t be able to decide to invest in 5 or 10 year treasuries.
 
unfortunately, good news for the economy will be bad news for the stock market. Inflation will not go away if employment numbers remain strong. This is what we call a head fake.
 
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unfortunately, good news for the economy will be bad news for the stock market. Inflation will not go away if employment numbers remain strong. This is what we call a head fake.
Each time inflation goes down, you keep posting this. LOL.
 
Another great show. This time with Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity (who I read and watch all the time via Fidelity Insights):

 
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On one of best fund managers of the last 10-15 years. His fund is the only one I own with bonds/fixed income as a significant portion of it (about 1/3). It's closed unless you have a T Rowe account, but it's worth finding a way to get into it:

 
Any thoughts on buying more I bonds?
New (lower?) rate to be announced as of May 1. We maxed out '22 and our '23 last year via the gift "loophole." But will likely "purchase" new reciprocal spousal gifts of $10k each in late April (6.89%), which would count as our '24 max purchase.
 
New (lower?) rate to be announced as of May 1. We maxed out '22 and our '23 last year via the gift "loophole." But will likely "purchase" new reciprocal spousal gifts of $10k each in late April (6.89%), which would count as our '24 max purchase.
We did the 2022 contribution right before rates flipped several months ago. Probably will pass on a 2023 contribution. Better places to put new cash now.
 
That’s an overall number for me. 14% in cash and 13% in fixed income.
Ironically, the account with the largest cash position is my fun account with the likes of TQQQ (which is up 63% in Q1). Just trying to stay disciplined with my buying levels. LOL!

Doing some quick math, our portfolio Q1 is definitely between 12-13%.
 
OPEC and friends all cutting oil production:
Fst8cSkWAAAcTsq
 

Looks like Tesla has a demand problem.
 
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Looks like Tesla has a demand problem.
Nicely on track to exceed 2023 forecast of 1.8m EVs delivered. Well done TSLA!


Here are the key numbers from the electric vehicle maker:

Total deliveries Q1 2023: 422,875
Total production Q1 2023: 440,808

Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales disclosed by Tesla and are not broken out by individual model or region.

The first quarter numbers represent a 36% increase in deliveries compared to the 310,048 reported during the same period a year earlier, and 4% growth in deliveries sequentially compared to the 405,278 they company reported in the last quarter of 2022.
 
Nicely on track to exceed 2023 forecast of 1.8m EVs delivered. Well done TSLA!


Here are the key numbers from the electric vehicle maker:

Total deliveries Q1 2023: 422,875
Total production Q1 2023: 440,808

Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales disclosed by Tesla and are not broken out by individual model or region.

The first quarter numbers represent a 36% increase in deliveries compared to the 310,048 reported during the same period a year earlier, and 4% growth in deliveries sequentially compared to the 405,278 they company reported in the last quarter of 2022.
How did you get on track for 1.8mm? Did Tesla already gave up 50% growth YOY already?
 
 
Time to cut off arms to the countries that buy from us, especially Saudi Arabia. Let them buy Russian and Chinese junk instead.

Biden admin needs to pull back on the sanctions BS. 1. They don't work and 2. Nobody respects them so they are just making them look bad. Japan has been buying Russian oil above the cap and the EU has been buying "Saudi oil" that is really Russian oil that flows through Saudi Arabia.
 
Biden admin needs to pull back on the sanctions BS. 1. They don't work and 2. Nobody respects them so they are just making them look bad. Japan has been buying Russian oil above the cap and the EU has been buying "Saudi oil" that is really Russian oil that flows through Saudi Arabia.
China has been buying Russian oil and then reselling it to those that didn't want to buy it from Russia directly. The oil market was never disrupted after the UKR conflict started. Just fear.
 
China has been buying Russian oil and then reselling it to those that didn't want to buy it from Russia directly. The oil market was never disrupted after the UKR conflict started. Just fear.

and today's announcements may not make much difference in the long run. A lot of their announcements are just a reflection of a decrease in demand and they call them "cuts". But this is definitely a big FU to Biden.
 
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