That is true. Implied volatility is still high but that could work in your favor as well. If the play is for 33% upside, you will get there faster with options. This is particularly the case because you will know in a couple of weeks (with bank earnings) if the trade is going to work. Given the stabilization and consolidation in the price of the stock the past week or so, IMHO, this would be the right time for an options play. Doesn’t mean you will definitely win, but you maybe giving yourself the best chance.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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1) I have too much cash on the sidelines and I don’t feel the need to pay a time decay premium
2) If I timed it correctly I plan on holding it with a trailing stop on an up move past a 5K gain. We’ll see.
“Where does that rent data come from?”
“Where…..uhhhh…..that data ? ….from a national data….base…and stuff”
Zillow, Redfin, Case Shiller, large rental company data, etc. Everyone knows what is going on with OER.....except CPI and the gov'ment. LOL!
If inflation drops because the economy is headed to a recession (more likely), then a drop in interest rates does not necessarily mean an increase in stocks. If inflation drops because of a "soft landing" (less likely), then stocks will go up. My point is that inflation dropping for the wrong reason does necessarily mean good things for stocks.
If you are wanting to risk $1500 for a $5000 gain, why put in $14,000+, right? Better play for that sort of investment would be options especially with a potential catalyst event coming up in the next 1-2 weeks. This sector (banking) is not my cup of tea, but just my 2 cents.
I'm talking about inflation dropping due to a lag in the CPI math that doesn't reflect today's reality. Actual future inflation is a different issue. CPI shelter should be overhauled and replaced with more real-time data. The Fed making forward looking policy decisions (rate changes) based on "old" data/facts is a recipe for disaster.
As for a recession, we already had one in H1 2022. If we have another, it will be the most predicted and expected recession ever. Does that matter? Maybe, maybe not. The Fed would likely cut rates and restart QE. The market may not response as negatively as people think.
Q1 GDP looks to be tracking to 3%'ish growth. That's a pretty solid number.
I agree with the first paragraph. The fed certainly needs to update their calculations for CPI given how far behind the curve they were this time around. The mistake they made with calling inflation transitory and keeping the rates low when they should have started raising them directly led them into a situation of rapid rate hikes. The second paragraph is gibberish. The third paragraph may not mean much if there is a concern for recession in Q2/3.
It's sad to see the Fed making the same exact mistake for a second time.....using lagged inflation data. It made them think inflation was way lower than reality in 2021 (so rate increases were unneeded) and now it's way higher than reality (so jack, jack, jack). This is basic math and understanding simple data. The issue with CPI/PPI/PCE is not complex. Most Fed officials should be fired for such elementary mistakes.
I'm sure you guys saw the bank stocks took a good hit yesterday. It continued overnight for some. Western Alliance in the cross hairs.
finance.yahoo.com
Western Alliance Drops on Lack of Details on Deposit Balance
(Bloomberg) -- Western Alliance Bancorp fell almost 7% in early New York trading after the regional bank updated its financial disclosures without saying more about its deposit balance.Most Read from BloombergWarner Bros. Nears Deal for Harry Potter Online TV SeriesUBS Chairman’s Top-Secret Prep...
Is commercial real estate crashing? Morgan Stanley analysts warn of price crash ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’
There’s a growing chorus of investors and economists — along with Elon Musk — who warn of a looming crisis in the commercial real estate market.
www.deseret.com
Shalett wrote Morgan Stanley strategists are noting the commercial real estate sector faces a “huge hurdle: More than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points.”
Quite a few articles about the commercial real estate market and they are not good.
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I was put into the name after selling the $22.50 strikes for $5, when this initially tanked and bounced So my initial cost was 17.50. (kind of bogus in that it closed on that friday at $23, but went below the strike in extended, but whatever).
Sold the next week's $22.50 calls for $3. Have since sold calls(at lower strikes) for another $4 in premium. Volatility has died down so the premium's have come down a bunch as well, but still some solid premium's to be had.
Currently I'm short the April 14h $20 strikes which I sold for .90, and are currently at .15. Thinking of rolling that out into May. Paying off that 1% premium, to get %8ish out into May.
And commercial REIT stocks reflect that. How much of it is priced in?Is commercial real estate crashing? Morgan Stanley analysts warn of price crash ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’
There’s a growing chorus of investors and economists — along with Elon Musk — who warn of a looming crisis in the commercial real estate market.
Shalett wrote Morgan Stanley strategists are noting the commercial real estate sector faces a “huge hurdle: More than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points.”
Quite a few articles about the commercial real estate market and they are not good.
This was talked about last week on the Compound. SLG is down 60+% from it's highs. Current div yield of 13.8%(thoughts out there that they will cut the div).
Had a good bounce last week, though it may be poised to give that back.
Commercial and office real estate have been a slow moving train wreck for years. Nothing new here.
FYI - for some stupid reason, I continue to track nat gas for a BOIL trade. Loss a little on it already, but hoping to buy if it gets under $2. What can go wrong? LOL.
I've been completely demolished in TELL, which is very spec-y on top of it being an LNG. The hold looks even worse given at one point I was way up in it.
Which one is effected more? I legit don't know.
But the risk is definitely there for REIT's, but again, how much is priced in?
True, but the longer term chart reflects that as well. All time high of $165 in 2007. Post financial crisis high of $135 in 2015. Post Covid high of $85ish early 2022(double top high that was reached in 2021).
Downward trend, but some good trades along the way. Could have been bought in the low teens in 2009. Could have been bought for around $40 in the covid lows. So might be a good buy for an intermediate term trade here?
I'm not in it though.
Seems like at least one prolific poster misunderstands the role and priority of the FOMC. It's not about the health of one's own portfolio. It's about the health of the nation's economy and to prudently manage the money supply. The Fed has a very specific job to do, and optimizing your investment portfolio ain't it. That said. This thread is all in good fun. Really. To take it too seriously or as guidance for managing your own investments is unwise. So... plan accordingly. LOL. 😉
I seek the experts advice on this board, so many of them and then make my decisions.
My only advice is buy low and sell high.
Don’t get too greedy, I rather take a profit instead of a loss.
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Sold more UNH up $17.5 today, $44 over 5 days 10%, sold more JNJ up 7.4% over 5 days, Sold more BDX up 7% in a month. I trying to reduce my equities before the bank earnings 4/14.
I bet HC has a big run coming soon. Will be holding for a while to see what happens.
I owe a lot of SCHW via DODGX. No reason for it to be down so much. Definitely an overreaction.
I don't think they released earnings, but only announced a $150m charge that will hit the quarter. Not a big deal.
The big deal is biosim competition against Humira:
Argus has downgraded AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) to hold from buy as it faces biosimilar competition for its blockbuster drug Humira (adalimumab), which accounts for more than 40% of sales.
Analyst Jasper Hellweg said that although management has stated growth in sales of Skyrizi (risankizumab) and Rinvoq (upadacitinib) will help offset the decline in Humira revenue, it may take until 2027 until those two drugs combined surpass Humira peak sales.
In addition, in its Q4 2022 earnings call, the company said that it likely won't see robust sales growth until 2025.
Hellweg said that AbbVie's (ABBV) aesthetics portfolio, namely Botox and Juverderm, has shown growth, as has the atypical antipsychotic Vraylar (cariprazine).
Amgen (AMGN) launched the first Humira biosimilar in the US, Amjevita (adalimumab-atto), in late January.
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While Skyrizi and Rinvoq are growing nicely, I would be surprised if ABBV only suffers the projected 37% decline in Humira sales. There are 8-9 competitors coming out this year. Even if Humira holds onto market share, its net price will erode.
ABBV is a great company, but I would view it as a hold, not a buy until the biosim dust settles.
I sold some $1.50 puts on BBBY for a 20% premium back when it was spiking up to $3-4-5 in late Jan early Feb. Think they were mid Feb experations.
See the stock is now .34, so I got out of there in time.
Looks like a reverse split is upcoming.
See the stock is now .34, so I got out of there in time.
Looks like a reverse split is upcoming.
none of the networks are showing what's going on in France.
France is going to move right and rightfully so given the liberal policies there have gone too far
it's implications for the markets are yet to be determined
I doubt they will move right. This is just socialist infighting. They will replace Macron with another Lefty who promises to keep their pensions.
they already are
it's not just pensions, pensions were the spark, Le Pen now has over 25% support across the country up from 3% just over a decade ago.
France, most Americans think we're the most restrictive ignorantly, continues to tighten social, immigration, and financial control over non French citizens and over former colonies (this was unheard of a decade ago)
France has had over 10mm marching; none of this is to be understated
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