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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

There is simply nothing positive in the economy at the moment. The Fed wants to destroy the stock market. Banks had to be rescued and lending has crashed. Housing is a mess mainly because rates high, home prices still too high, inventory nonexistent. Autos are a joke = go try and buy or lease a new/used car. And all of the businesses that were crying that COVID destroyed them and took free gov’t money have now jacked up prices and are doing better than ever. That’s one of the things that pisses me off the most. I know too many people that took gov’t money only to turn around and buy toys like a Lamborghini, in-ground pools, home remodels, etc. Did the gov’t even verify whether businesses needed the handout? Anyway, I digress mainly because everywhere I go now it’s hard not to feel like I’m getting ripped off.
I read there now an over abundance of new cars inventory due to the change of interest rates. From too few cars to too many cars due to interest rates just like the change due to covid. Homes prices don’t make sense either, People stop putting up their homes for sales when home prices are high maybe because any house they buy is at 3% higher interest rates.
 
I read there now an over abundance of new cars inventory due to the change of interest rates. From too few cars to too many cars due to interest rates just like the change due to covid. Homes prices don’t make sense either, People stop putting up their homes for sales when home prices are high maybe because any house they buy is at 3% higher interest rates.
Fed already screwed the pooch and raised way too much. Any issues moving forward are 100% due to the Fed and completely unnecessary. Only question now is.....which Fed members should be fired?
 
Credit card banks are doing their part in attempting to help out the Fed with an average interest rate of 20-ish percent. I’m guessing these banks have already hoovered up the stimulus checks of the credit worthy lower middle class…as labor participation rate is finally back near pre-COVID level.
 
I read there now an over abundance of new cars inventory due to the change of interest rates. From too few cars to too many cars due to interest rates just like the change due to covid. Homes prices don’t make sense either, People stop putting up their homes for sales when home prices are high maybe because any house they buy is at 3% higher interest rates.
Went to BMW dealership last week looking for a deal and sales rep, who was very nice but straightforward, made a joke “BMW means BRING MONEY WITH you” = there were definitely no deals to be had. And like I’ve commented here before, there is basically no such thing as leasing anymore. You have to buy. Re: home prices, nobody wants to trade their 3% for 6% especially when prices have not come down at all. I’ve been looking at vacation homes too and it’s still a joke, especially the folks that bought in 2019/2020 and are trying to double/triple their money. The second home market simply makes no sense and you can’t even look at sales histories without laughing.
 
Went to BMW dealership last week looking for a deal and sales rep, who was very nice but straightforward, made a joke “BMW means BRING MONEY WITH you” = there were definitely no deals to be had. And like I’ve commented here before, there is basically no such thing as leasing anymore. You have to buy. Re: home prices, nobody wants to trade their 3% for 6% especially when prices have not come down at all. I’ve been looking at vacation homes too and it’s still a joke, especially the folks that bought in 2019/2020 and are trying to double/triple their money. The second home market simply makes no sense and you can’t even look at sales histories without laughing.
Patience is a virtue right now regarding vacation/second homes. We are at our cash goal for a beach house, but rates are way too high (unless prices come down 20%). We shall see. No rush.
 
Went to BMW dealership last week looking for a deal and sales rep, who was very nice but straightforward, made a joke “BMW means BRING MONEY WITH you” = there were definitely no deals to be had. And like I’ve commented here before, there is basically no such thing as leasing anymore. You have to buy. Re: home prices, nobody wants to trade their 3% for 6% especially when prices have not come down at all. I’ve been looking at vacation homes too and it’s still a joke, especially the folks that bought in 2019/2020 and are trying to double/triple their money. The second home market simply makes no sense and you can’t even look at sales histories without laughing.
ATLANTA, March 8, 2023 – The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in the United States declined in February 2023 to $48,763, a decrease of 1.4% ($705) from an upwardly-revised January reading of $49,468.M

I don’t how people can pay $48k for a car. My last car was purchased in 2020 with zero interest rate for 5 years and was only for $30k. I buy it for transportation and reliability and not to impress. The car before that was 13 years earlier for $20k. Yes, I can easily afford an expensive car but not my style.
 
MW means BRING MONEY WITH you” = there were definitely no deals to be had. And like I’ve commented here before, there is basically no such thing as leasing anymore. You have to buy. Re: home prices, nobody wants to trade their 3% for 6% especially when prices have not come down at all. I’ve been looking at vacation homes too and it’s still a joke, especially the
Same boat here. (Again first world problems here) I was at Mercedes looking into Car options and leasing is definitely out of the equation now. No deals to be had in general and the car I got 4yrs ago is much more expensive to get the newer version--clearly due to interest rates not price
 
ATLANTA, March 8, 2023 – The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in the United States declined in February 2023 to $48,763, a decrease of 1.4% ($705) from an upwardly-revised January reading of $49,468.M

I don’t how people can pay $48k for a car. My last car was purchased in 2020 with zero interest rate for 5 years and was only for $30k. I buy it for transportation and reliability and not to impress. The car before that was 13 years earlier for $20k. Yes, I can easily afford an expensive car but not my style.
I’m with you Re: auto affordability = a 1.4% decline from almost $50K is virtually meaningless. I remember a few years ago I’d walk into a car dealership and pay under invoice after some serious negotiations. Now they laugh at me. I bought my BMW coming off lease because I basically had no choice.
 
I read there now an over abundance of new cars inventory due to the change of interest rates. From too few cars to too many cars due to interest rates just like the change due to covid. Homes prices don’t make sense either, People stop putting up their homes for sales when home prices are high maybe because any house they buy is at 3% higher interest rates.
Good. Maybe rental cars will become affordable again.
 
As of April 7, the 1-Year Treasury Rate is at 4.61%, compared to 4.51% the previous market day and 1.78% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 2.88%.

I suspect we'll see an upward trend in longer duration Treasuries, with a peak sometime late summer.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/1_year_treasury_rate
Even the 1yr is well down from its 5.3% peak. If the Fed raises again, it will continue to go down. The stupider the Fed gets, the sooner we get to rate cuts and QE.
 
Long yields are down… something Dan Bongino doesn’t understand when he rants about imminent dollar collapse. I guess Danno is snapping up yuan lol.
Yes, yields are down but bond market isn’t. Yield down = prices up.
 
TRUTH - short clip from the interview posted above:

 
Yes, yields are down but bond market isn’t. Yield down = prices up.
Yes. Not sure of the confusion. TINA switched to TIAA. Equity guys will be frustrated when equities don’t go straight to the moon this year. Dollar devaluing already a positive tailwind on MSFT and other international companies I’m sure. Inflation is looking good (as in lack of) heading into the second half of 2023. A real recession looks likely this year (the previous recession in 2022 really wasn’t a recession as it was GDP metrics anomalies mostly).
 
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There is simply nothing positive in the economy at the moment. The Fed wants to destroy the stock market. Banks had to be rescued and lending has crashed. Housing is a mess mainly because rates high, home prices still too high, inventory nonexistent. Autos are a joke = go try and buy or lease a new/used car. And all of the businesses that were crying that COVID destroyed them and took free gov’t money have now jacked up prices and are doing better than ever. That’s one of the things that pisses me off the most. I know too many people that took gov’t money only to turn around and buy toys like a Lamborghini, in-ground pools, home remodels, etc. Did the gov’t even verify whether businesses needed the handout? Anyway, I digress mainly because everywhere I go now it’s hard not to feel like I’m getting ripped off.
Yeah a good portion of inflation is due to price gouging. So many non durable goods companies have had record earnings- because they jacked up prices way more than the increase of their input costs.
 
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Went to BMW dealership last week looking for a deal and sales rep, who was very nice but straightforward, made a joke “BMW means BRING MONEY WITH you” = there were definitely no deals to be had. And like I’ve commented here before, there is basically no such thing as leasing anymore. You have to buy. Re: home prices, nobody wants to trade their 3% for 6% especially when prices have not come down at all. I’ve been looking at vacation homes too and it’s still a joke, especially the folks that bought in 2019/2020 and are trying to double/triple their money. The second home market simply makes no sense and you can’t even look at sales histories without laughing.
We are selling our second home in LBI that we bought in December of 2020. We are looking at a modest 40% increase in sales price unless a bidding war breaks out. Fingers crossed
 
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Yeah a good portion of inflation is due to price gouging. So many non durable goods companies have had record earnings- because they jacked up prices way more than the increase of their input costs.
Gouging particularly in the service sector.

Went for an oil change this past week at a local independent, drive up, quick change-type biz. Been going there for a few years. At check in, the guy (owner/manager) says something to the effect of, "Just want to let you know up front our price has gone up $13 due to labor costs." I laughed. Right. A change takes 15 minutes, at most. So, say, four changes an hour. So the oil changer "tech" hourly rate has increased by $52 an hour? In Boone NC? So the tech is now making $67/hour? I mean, how effing stupid. LOL.
 
Gouging particularly in the service sector.

Went for an oil change this past week at a local independent, drive up, quick change-type biz. Been going there for a few years. At check in, the guy (owner/manager) says something to the effect of, "Just want to let you know up front our price has gone up $13 due to labor costs." I laughed. Right. A change takes 15 minutes, at most. So, say, four changes an hour. So the oil changer "tech" hourly rate has increased by $52 an hour? In Boone NC? So the tech is now making $67/hour? I mean, how effing stupid. LOL.
Did you get the oil change?
 
"Nice" topic for the CE forum. Not here.
wrong, will have implications for our markets. what those implications are, not sure yet but it's going to have implications. For instance, the Germans have talked about non Euro debt done through a wb mechanism to STOP supporting the low rates for the other countries in Europe. We all know Europe has their golden social construct due to the US taxpayer and most recently the Bundesbank.

pay attention
 
wrong, will have implications for our markets. what those implications are, not sure yet but it's going to have implications. For instance, the Germans have talked about non Euro debt done through a wb mechanism to STOP supporting the low rates for the other countries in Europe. We all know Europe has their golden social construct due to the US taxpayer and most recently the Bundesbank.

pay attention

I don't think many people understand that, including most Europeans.

They are about to find out.
 
Fed already screwed the pooch and raised way too much. Any issues moving forward are 100% due to the Fed and completely unnecessary. Only question now is.....which Fed members should be fired?
No, their mistake was not raising rates months sooner.
 
Gouging particularly in the service sector.

Went for an oil change this past week at a local independent, drive up, quick change-type biz. Been going there for a few years. At check in, the guy (owner/manager) says something to the effect of, "Just want to let you know up front our price has gone up $13 due to labor costs." I laughed. Right. A change takes 15 minutes, at most. So, say, four changes an hour. So the oil changer "tech" hourly rate has increased by $52 an hour? In Boone NC? So the tech is now making $67/hour? I mean, how effing stupid. LOL.
 
Gouging particularly in the service sector.

Went for an oil change this past week at a local independent, drive up, quick change-type biz. Been going there for a few years. At check in, the guy (owner/manager) says something to the effect of, "Just want to let you know up front our price has gone up $13 due to labor costs." I laughed. Right. A change takes 15 minutes, at most. So, say, four changes an hour. So the oil changer "tech" hourly rate has increased by $52 an hour? In Boone NC? So the tech is now making $67/hour? I mean, how effing stupid. LOL.
How ‘Excuseflation’ Is Keeping Prices — and Corporate Profits — High
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-is-keeping-prices-and-corporate-profits-high
 
wrong, will have implications for our markets. what those implications are, not sure yet but it's going to have implications. For instance, the Germans have talked about non Euro debt done through a wb mechanism to STOP supporting the low rates for the other countries in Europe. We all know Europe has their golden social construct due to the US taxpayer and most recently the Bundesbank.

pay attention
Once President Trump gets back into power, he’ll clean up the debt problem. He has a lot of personal success with getting out from under debt.
 
Once President Trump gets back into power, he’ll clean up the debt problem. He has a lot of personal success with getting out from under debt.
In actual serious non-fake news about Atlantic City, a new Formula One track along with a residential community will be built at Atlantic City’s old airfield (currently an ice rink and minor league ballpark). Not beachfront as it is about a mile away from the Boardwalk on the back bay.
 
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I don't think many people understand that, including most Europeans.

They are about to find out.
well remember, America reads at a 7th grade level, everyone forgets the atrocities of the Ukies now that media say 'Russia Bad' like good minions and most couldn't balance a checkbook so I'm not surprised.
 
well remember, America reads at a 7th grade level, everyone forgets the atrocities of the Ukies now that media say 'Russia Bad' like good minions and most couldn't balance a checkbook so I'm not surprised.
What would you have the US/NATO do? Let Russia take over Ukraine and hope they stop there?
 
What would you have the US/NATO do? Let Russia take over Ukraine and hope they stop there?
At least Finland is finally in NATO now. If Russia had anything resembling democracy the war would be over already. But the “democracy bad” folks need to be heard lol.
 
It's great to see that in the last 2 years, America has recommitted itself to manufacturing in America! The CHIPS Act and the Green Industry Initiatives are rebuilding our factory infrastructure.

 
When the dust settles Zelenskyy will be the first ever multibillionaire comedian.

True or false?
 
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