OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[Morrischiano]

Agreed!

The bow starting to break on inflation as the math of the garbage gov'ment metrics slowly begin to catch up with reality. Literally, the only thing holding up CPI headline and core is the woefully pathetic shelter metric. OER dropping like a rock for months and months, but still up via CPI. LOL! Nobody believes this garbage anymore.

Plan accordingly.

Given the current math, since you understand it so well, when is CPI going to be below 2%?

At some point this “housing contraction” is going to hit the tape. Also I think that you overestimate the impact on housing on CPI. Look at the housing collapse in 2008. Peak to trough was about 20%. CPI for 2008-2011 was 3.8, -.4, 1.6 and 3.2. By no measure has real estate come off more than 5% so far in real time terms in the last year.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Given the current math, since you understand it so well, when is CPI going to be below 2%?

At some point this “housing contraction” is going to hit the tape. Also I think that you overestimate the impact on housing on CPI. Look at the housing collapse in 2008. Peak to trough was about 20%. CPI for 2008-2011 was 3.8, -.4, 1.6 and 3.2. By no measure has real estate come off more than 5% so far in real time terms in the last year.

CPI headline and core will be under 2% this summer when using real-time shelter data. The math is the math.

Shelter is 30% of headline CPI and 40% of core CPI. Largest components in each print.

 

[RUDead]

Good chart:

 

[T2Kplus20]

Good chart:

Beautiful chart! Now use real-time shelter data instead of the garbage CPI shelter metric. Core CPI is currently below 3% and headline is about 3%. Inflation is over.

 

[RUDead]

Beautiful chart! Now use real-time shelter data instead of the garbage CPI shelter metric. Core CPI is currently below 3% and headline is about 3%. Inflation is over.

If you used real time shelter data then the chart would look very different. The inflation hike would have happened earlier and been much higher.

Also, the less food and energy data has been in the same range for a year. Not following energy. I think the term for that is "sticky".

Fed will continue to raise rates IMO.

 

[T2Kplus20]

If you used real time shelter data then the chart would look very different. The inflation hike would have happened earlier and been much higher.

Also, the less food and energy data has been in the same range for a year. Not following energy. I think the term for that is "sticky".

Fed will continue to raise rates IMO.

It's only "sticky" if you stick with the garbage CPI shelter metric. Otherwise, it's going down like a rock. 40% of Core CPI is shelter. So do the math when that portion of core goes from a large positive number to an equally large negative number.

 

[RUDead]

It's only "sticky" if you stick with the garbage CPI shelter metric. Otherwise, it's going down like a rock. 40% of Core CPI is shelter. So do the math when that portion of core goes from a large positive number to an equally large negative number.

Enough with the garbage "do the math" comments. The future isn't linear. It could accelerate or decelerate from here. The chart is indicating it is consolidating in a range. When it breaks out of that range we will can better guess where its going.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Lower rates, raise reserve threshold, raise revolving credit requirements, reduce agency funding

Boom, all this sorts itself out

 

[T2Kplus20]

Enough with the garbage "do the math" comments. The future isn't linear. It could accelerate or decelerate from here. The chart is indicating it is consolidating in a range. When it breaks out of that range we will can better guess where its going.

Actually, no it can't. That's the problem with using metrics that lag so much. OER prices can literally triple tomorrow and CPI shelter will keep going down for about 12 more months. Math has consequences.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Lower rates, raise reserve threshold, raise revolving credit requirements, reduce agency funding

Boom, all this sorts itself out

How about QE3? 😁

 

[RUTGERS95]

How about QE3? 😁

No....need less in system but rate cuts are needed

 

[RUDead]

Actually, no it can't. That's the problem with using metrics that lag so much. OER prices can literally triple tomorrow and CPI shelter will keep going down for about 12 more months. Math has consequences.

That's a ridiculous argument. OER isn't the only component of the CPI.

 

[Morrischiano]

It's only "sticky" if you stick with the garbage CPI shelter metric. Otherwise, it's going down like a rock. 40% of Core CPI is shelter. So do the math when that portion of core goes from a large positive number to an equally large negative number.

Where were the big negative annual CPI numbers when housing declined 20% 2008-2010?

 

[T2Kplus20]

No....need less in system but rate cuts are needed

Deal! Time for rate cuts.

 

[Morrischiano]

No....need less in system but rate cuts are needed

Yep, most of the house fire is out. “Let’s switch from water to gasoline, boys”

 

[T2Kplus20]

That's a ridiculous argument. OER isn't the only component of the CPI.

It's the largest component. 30% of CPI headline and 40% of CPI core.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Where were the big negative annual CPI numbers when housing declined 20% 2008-2010?

House prices or OER?

 

[Morrischiano]

Good chart:

Yes, peak inflation is behind us. It’s like cancer. You don’t stop chemotherapy because the tumors are no longer growing. You keep going until it is crushed or else it will come back and kill you.

Will other organs get damaged? Yes but it beats the alternative.

 

[T2Kplus20]

FYI - Warren Buffett was on CNBC this morning. Lots of video clips:

https://www.youtube.com/@CNBCtelevision/videos

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yes, peak inflation is behind us. It’s like cancer. You don’t stop chemotherapy because the tumors are no longer growing. You keep going until it is crushed or else it will come back and kill you.

Will other organs get damaged? Yes but it beats the alternative.

Poor analogy. HCPs also lower the dose of chemo and adjust as needed.

 

[RUDead]

Yes, peak inflation is behind us. It’s like cancer. You don’t stop chemotherapy because the tumors are no longer growing. You keep going until it is crushed or else it will come back and kill you.

Will other organs get damaged? Yes but it beats the alternative.

Agree. Probably a good time to break out the 70's inflation chart as a reminder for the math whizzes in the thread.

 

[Morrischiano]

House prices or OER?

Fine, at least I educated you on what is actually measured in CPI. You previously thought home prices were part of CPI (while you yelled “learn the math”).

I wanted to get you to STFU about OER data lag so i pulled up the data on my BBG. Looking at H2 2007-H2 2012 there was only one YoY quarterly decline in OER (seasonally adjusted) That was during a 5 period of 20% real estate declines and unemployment jumping from 4.6% to 9.6%. That decline was in 2010, but for the year 2010 OER still rose slightly.

Given that backdrop, what makes you think that there will be a sustained negative OER driver that will push CPI negative, when unemployment is at historic lows and real estate values aren’t collapsing?

You’re wrong.

 

[Morrischiano]

Stopped Limited out of FRC at 13.65 earlier. Probably because of Warren Buffett’s dispelling the notion of FRC being a steal at these prices. $500 loss on 1,000 shares.

I guess you can’t fight the FED and you can’t fight Buffett either.

Quick story: 1999 I was on a trading desk and Buffett was on CNBC railing against the Internet stock saying something to the effect of “a large majority of these companies are worthless and almost all of them are overvalued”. We were laughing at him and saying that his fundamentalist mentality was over and done with. Since then BRK has outpaced SPX 1400% to 500%.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Fine, at least I educated you on what is actually measured in CPI. You previously thought home prices were part of CPI (while you yelled “learn the math”).

I wanted to get you to STFU about OER data lag so i pulled up the data on my BBG. Looking at H2 2007-H2 2012 there was only one YoY quarterly decline in OER (seasonally adjusted) That was during a 5 period of 20% real estate declines and unemployment jumping from 4.6% to 9.6%. That decline was in 2010, but for the year 2010 OER still rose slightly.

Given that backdrop, what makes you think that there will be a sustained negative OER driver that will push CPI negative, when unemployment is at historic lows and real estate values aren’t collapsing?

You’re wrong.

LOL! Stop arguing with math. It's not going to work. OER has been deflationary for about 5-6 months now. Using simple math, CPI Core YoY is now 2.6% when using real-time shelter data from Refin, Zillow, Case S, and a few others. Shelter is the largest component of CPI headline (30%) and core (40%). That's why the impact is so big.

Not sure what you are screaming about now? FYI, CPI component weightings change all the time. I haven't found a source for historic weightings yet.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Stopped Limited out of FRC at 13.65 earlier. Probably because of Warren Buffett’s dispelling the notion of FRC being a steal at these prices. $500 loss on 1,000 shares.

I guess you can’t fight the FED and you can’t fight Buffett either.

Quick story: 1999 I was on a trading desk and Buffett was on CNBC railing against the Internet stock saying something to the effect of “a large majority of these companies are worthless and almost all of them are overvalued”. We were laughing at him and saying that his fundamentalist mentality was over and done with. Since then BRK has outpaced SPX 1400% to 500%.

You also can't fight simple math. Inflation going down fast. Plan accordingly. :)

 

[T2Kplus20]

Public service announcement:

I-Bonds just about to S the bed.

I-bonds are over, long live I-bonds: This is your warning that rates are about to drop precipitously.

 

[Morrischiano]

LOL! Stop arguing with math. It's not going to work. OER has been deflationary for about 5-6 months now. Using simple math, CPI Core YoY is now 2.6% when using real-time shelter data from Refin, Zillow, Case S, and a few others. Shelter is the largest component of CPI headline (30%) and core (40%). That's why the impact is so big.

Not sure what you are screaming about now? FYI, CPI component weightings change all the time. I haven't found a source for historic weightings yet.

Joey Gallo’s batting average last year wasn’t .160 if you use on base percentage and slugging. His batting average was between.280 and .357 if you use on base percentage or slugging to measure batting average.

 

[RU-05]

Added to HII.

Owned it for a little over 2 years, up 13% since then. Added a year ago at around $218, so I'm actually down on that. 2.37% div yield.

2023 eps expected to be flat yoy, and I expect that is why the stock has also been flat/down. OK rev growth expected in the years ahead, but EPS growth expected to be significant. Figure there are higher degrees of confidence in EPS outlook for defense stocks.

Still below precovid highs, with pretty clear resistance at $250ish which it has bumped against numerous times dating back to 2018, including in Oct of last year. Was hoping for a break out then. Didn't get it, expect/hope to get back to, and then break through that level moving fwd.

I'm pretty heavy in defense stocks. I also own LMT and NOC, both of which have broken out past those pre covid highs.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Their latest iteration. HBO Go, HBO Go and HBO Max, HBO Max and now just Max.

I think there’s equity in the HBO name but what do I know.

Warner Bros. Discovery unveils new flagship streaming service, 'Max'

Max will launch on May 23 and combine scripted dramas like HBO's "Succession," "White Lotus" and "House of the Dragon" with Discovery's unscripted staples

www.cnbc.com

 

[RU-05]

Sold some CHPT April 21st 8.50 stike puts. Down 4% today, currently $8.90 stock price. 2+% premium.

Falling knife or is it developing a bottom? Not profitable, but a 7x price to rev's with monster rev growth expected, so I'm thinking the latter.

Insider activity shows a big buying late Dec, but bigger selling in mid Jan, which looks like an excellent trade.

 

[T2Kplus20]

RUT ROH for bears - several voting Fed members were considering a pause last meeting. Looks like the Fed rate increases are just about to end.

Plan accordingly.

 

[Morrischiano]

Sold some CHPT April 21st 8.50 stike puts. Down 4% today, currently $8.90 stock price. 2+% premium.

Falling knife or is it developing a bottom? Not profitable, but a 7x price to rev's with monster rev growth expected, so I'm thinking the latter.

Insider activity shows a big buying late Dec, but bigger selling in mid Jan, which looks like an excellent trade.

I’ve been rotting with CHPT after buying this last spring at 13. Technically it looks like bottom and fundamentally it should be part of a rising tide. My gut tells me long term this company is not going to be a winner in the space; long term.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Sold some CHPT April 21st 8.50 stike puts. Down 4% today, currently $8.90 stock price. 2+% premium.

Falling knife or is it developing a bottom? Not profitable, but a 7x price to rev's with monster rev growth expected, so I'm thinking the latter.

Insider activity shows a big buying late Dec, but bigger selling in mid Jan, which looks like an excellent trade.

I have a 4% weight for CHPT in my custom EV-focused ETF. All EV stocks will be volatile, but it is definitely the best long-term option for chargers.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I’ve been rotting with CHPT after buying this last spring at 13. Technically it looks like bottom and fundamentally it should be part of a rising tide. My gut tells me long term this company is not going to be a winner in the space; long term.

CHPT is well positioned to be the winner among current charging stocks. IMO, the only way it will likely fail is if TSLA and other EV/car companies create enough critical mass with their own charging networks to make independent charging businesses unnecessary. However, to do that TSLA or another EV/car company would have to buy CHPT and use its network for coverage.

 

[T2Kplus20]

CPI Core Inflation has been ZERO for the past 5 months. LOL at the dumb Fed:

 

[Morrischiano]

CPI Core Inflation has been ZERO for the past 5 months. LOL at the dumb Fed:

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Jeremy Segal is your David Koresh.

I watched him on CNBC. He said that he is not optimistic on stocks for 2023; which is a flip for him. Previously he was bullish on stocks for this year.

That being said I’ve yet to see a very wealthy economist.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Jeremy Segal is your David Koresh.

I watched him on CNBC. He said that he is not optimistic on stocks for 2023; which is a flip for him. Previously he was bullish on stocks for this year.

That being said I’ve yet to see a very wealthy economist.

Siegel for inflation and Fed stupidity. Tom Lee for stocks.
:)

 

[RU-05]

Various AI based micro caps continue to rip

GFAI up 90% today. Up 6x since March 30th.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Various AI based micro caps continue to rip

GFAI up 90% today. Up 6x since March 30th.

Forgot to mention, I bought a ton of GFAI two weeks ago for a short term trade.
😜

 

[ScarletNut]

Inflation is falling. Why aren’t people noticing? — The Washington Post

Although inflation has slowly cooled from last summer’s highs, price pressures continue to feel like an uphill battle for consumers, politicians and policymakers alike.

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