OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

Inflation is falling. Why aren’t people noticing? — The Washington Post

Although inflation has slowly cooled from last summer’s highs, price pressures continue to feel like an uphill battle for consumers, politicians and policymakers alike.

apple.news

Most people don't realize that high prices and inflation are two different things. Even if inflation goes to zero, high prices will likely remain (and become the new norm).

 

[RUAldo]

Most people don't realize that high prices and inflation are two different things. Even if inflation goes to zero, high prices will likely remain (and become the new norm).

One of your better points…it’s a total mind-F for many generations prompting the “back in my day it only cost…” comments. Hard to believe average slice of pizza in my area is $3+. Back in my day slices were $1.25.

 

[rutgersdave]

One of your better points…it’s a total mind-F for many generations prompting the “back in my day it only cost…” comments. Hard to believe average slice of pizza in my area is $3+. Back in my day slices were $1.25.

I remember getting a whole pizza for a dollar.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I remember getting a whole pizza for a dollar.

You old!

 

[RUDead]

"Eighty percent of the March decline in the index for final demand goods can be traced to an 11.7% drop in prices for gasoline."

 

[ScarletNut]

Egg prices dropped by 11% last month and are poised to drop further this month. OTOH 18,000 cattle died in a west Texas fire yesterday so dairy/meat prices may be affected.

 

[T2Kplus20]

PPI falls off the cliff. When will the bears admit inflation is over?
Hello? Bueller? Bueller?

The March producer prices index, a measure of prices paid by companies and often a leading indicator of consumer inflation, declined by 0.5% month over month versus expectations for prices to be flat. Excluding food and energy, the core wholesale prices reading shed 0.1% month over month, much better than the 0.2% increase expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. YoY declined to 2.7%.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

"Eighty percent of the March decline in the index for final demand goods can be traced to an 11.7% drop in prices for gasoline."

Gas seems headed upwards, again. National average per gallon is $3.64. Prices typically peak in late June or early July.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Gas seems headed upwards, again. National average per gallon is $3.64. Prices typically peak in late June or early July.

^^^^^ Bears grasping at straws in attempt to keep the inflation narrative alive. LOL.

 

[RUTGERS95]

^^^^^ Bears grasping at straws in attempt to keep the inflation narrative alive. LOL.

it's fine if it does and it's somewhat seasonal. higher prices takes more out of slowing economy. it's a good thing right now

 

[RUDead]

You guys following this story? I know nothing about Swiss politics or law but if this deal blows up, what happens next? Crazy.

Credit Suisse rescue rebuked by half of Swiss parliament

Switzerland’s lower house of parliament has issued a searing — though symbolic — rebuke of an emergency plan spearheaded by the executive branch to prop up embattled Credit Suisse and shepherd it into a takeover by Swiss banking rival UBS. The National Council voted twice Wednesday to reject...

apnews.com

 

[RUTGERS95]

You guys following this story? I know nothing about Swiss politics or law but if this deal blows up, what happens next? Crazy.

Credit Suisse rescue rebuked by half of Swiss parliament

Switzerland’s lower house of parliament has issued a searing — though symbolic — rebuke of an emergency plan spearheaded by the executive branch to prop up embattled Credit Suisse and shepherd it into a takeover by Swiss banking rival UBS. The National Council voted twice Wednesday to reject...

apnews.com

gov't takeover or tie in akin to our agencies. momentary blip

 

[RUinPinehurst]

^^^^^ Bears grasping at straws in attempt to keep the inflation narrative alive. LOL.

Not sure how you interpret my post on the reality of gas prices as being bearish. The point to process is that lower gas prices in March contributed to a slower rate of inflation as indicated in the latest CPI. April, May, June, July will likely see a continued increase in price at the pump, and it will negatively impact inflation data.

As for the whole fixation with bears and bulls, it's a waste of energy. Invest how best suits you. My aim is to optimize my portfolio, continually. I don't fight reality.

 

[Goo]

Someone with a net short portfolio may have started the year (2022) 70% short (equities) and 30% cash. Mid-year may have switched to 50% short, 20% cash, 15% Long Futures (ES, NQ, RTY), and 15% Long precious metal and bonds. This equity curve would look very smooth and manages draw-downs very well. This portfolio is still net short, and the impact of this rally is minimal. This fictional someone may reassess their portfolio once a quarter. Sleep well, don't fight the tape.

This is worth repeating. Managing risk and managing drawdown is priority #1. There is some bearish sentiment on this board, but I cant imagine that ANYONE here is short even half of their portfolios. Some smart folk I know are very bearish. They’ve parked most of their money in Gov MM funds and have been buying minis for the long haul.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I don't fight reality.

Agreed, don't fight reality. Inflation data is crystal clear.

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

One of your better points…it’s a total mind-F for many generations prompting the “back in my day it only cost…” comments. Hard to believe average slice of pizza in my area is $3+. Back in my day slices were $1.25.

and no TIP jar or screen that suggests 15 - 25% ..

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Egg prices dropped by 11% last month and are poised to drop further this month. OTOH 18,000 cattle died in a west Texas fire yesterday so dairy/meat prices may be affected.

Should I be buying stock in KC Masterpiece?

 

[T2Kplus20]

This is worth repeating. Managing risk and managing drawdown is priority #1. There is some bearish sentiment on this board, but I cant imagine that ANYONE here is short even half of their portfolios. Some smart folk I know are very bearish. They’ve parked most of their money in Gov MM funds and have been buying minis for the long haul.

Priority #1 is time in the market. Also, maximizing the next rally to take full advantage of this temporary downturn.

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Gas seems headed upwards, again. National average per gallon is $3.64. Prices typically peak in late June or early July.

Passed Shell (Belvidere) on way up to Poconos Monday $3.19..Coming home yesterday..$3.35

 

[Knight Owl]

and no TIP jar or screen that suggests 15 - 25% ..

I remember when the price of a slice went up from 35cents to 40cents in the late 70’s at my favorite pinball and pong pizza shop. This was in PA not NJ.

 

[RUDead]

Not sure how you interpret my post on the reality of gas prices as being bearish. The point to process is that lower gas prices in March contributed to a slower rate of inflation as indicated in the latest CPI. April, May, June, July will likely see a continued increase in price at the pump, and it will negatively impact inflation data.

As for the whole fixation with bears and bulls, it's a waste of energy. Invest how best suits you. My aim is to optimize my portfolio, continually. I don't fight reality.

He only understands this:

When inflation numbers are bad = they're backward looking
When good = inflation going straight to 0%

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Most people don't realize that high prices and inflation are two different things. Even if inflation goes to zero, high prices will likely remain (and become the new norm).

Here's what I expect to happen from my 38 years in Consumer Products (Food) (many years managing the some fairly huge budgets on some fairy large brands) that included targeted pricing and promotions. Unless companies have been forced to jump across critical and highly sensitive pricing threshold's they will hold these new prices just as you say because after a period of time they become the new base.
Instead of dropping prices from lower costs, much of the savings will go to prop up the profit margin contributions with a good deal allocated to marketing budgets and trade promotional budgets. Hence more frequent and perhaps deeper deals/sales.
It is far easier and effective to deliver some savings to consumers and become more price competitive this way than permanent reductions that may just have to be reversed again.

 

[Morrischiano]

One of your better points…it’s a total mind-F for many generations prompting the “back in my day it only cost…” comments. Hard to believe average slice of pizza in my area is $3+. Back in my day slices were $1.25.

By back in my day do you mean 2019?

 

[Morrischiano]

He only understands this:

When inflation numbers are bad = they're backward looking
When good = inflation going straight to 0%

I don’t get what is motivating him. It’s strange. Perhaps it’s like someone who yells “it’s 1 pm” all day. At one point he will be correct so he’ll take that opportunity to say “ see I was right all along!”

 

[Morrischiano]

Most people don't realize that high prices and inflation are two different things. Even if inflation goes to zero, high prices will likely remain (and become the new norm).

How ‘Excuseflation’ Is Keeping Prices — and Corporate Profits — High
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-is-keeping-prices-and-corporate-profits-high

 

[T2Kplus20]

I don’t get what is motivating him. It’s strange. Perhaps it’s like someone who yells “it’s 1 pm” all day. At one point he will be correct so he’ll take that opportunity to say “ see I was right all along!”

Gotta keep repeating the facts for people that don't understand them. Trying to help and educate the masses! :)

 

[rurahrah000]

Thanks for the info. The technical setup for the miners looks great. I feel that if we get a 25 bp rate hike, it would do nothing to slow down inflation and is likely only to "save face". That combined with the banking concerns would also set up bitcoin for a run up higher. I have enough BTC and ETH for now and don't want to add more to my collection. I am lite on miners and added MARA, HUT, RIOT and DGHI in the past 2 days. I bought a very small amount of DGHI compared to the other 3. RIOT and MARA are the largest buys followed by HUT.

Bitcoin miner trades is working out great. I turbocharged the returns by buying some upside calls as well and eventually closed them for a tremendous profit. If it still keeps going up, I will be selling some out of the money calls to generate even more cash. Keep posting real time trades and not after the fact BS.

#realtimetrades
#nofakeafterthefacttrades

 

[T2Kplus20]

I turbocharged the returns by buying some upside calls as well and eventually closed them for a tremendous profit.

Nice after the fact trade claim. Never said anything about calls before.

LOL!

 

[Morrischiano]

Gotta keep repeating the facts for people that don't understand them. Trying to help and educate the masses! :)

WHat do you think about MRNA? It looks cheap at 7.8 P/E with 5.3 debt: capital and the technicals look upward drifty.

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

We've discussed many times here....
disinflation is NOT deflation...
just because we've seen a lot of disinflation over the last year - doesn't mean inflation is over..
even when inflation is back to target levels.. the damage done will be great.

 

[Morrischiano]

Bought 10 LRCX @ 495. PE is 13. Good FCFF and I think they are properly positioned in the advanced memory space.

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

I don’t get what is motivating him. It’s strange. Perhaps it’s like someone who yells “it’s 1 pm” all day. At one point he will be correct so he’ll take that opportunity to say “ see I was right all along!”

I know one thing. The one account I have that is managed 3rd party NY Firm (I do all the rest) just went from 30-45-25 (funds/stocks/cash) to 99% equities on Monday. I myself have been 90% out of cash for a couple of months.

 

[rurahrah000]

Nice after the fact trade claim. Never said anything about calls before.

LOL!

I almost always do that particularly with the ones that are high beta and expected to run high. I am not the kind of person who always claims to buy highly volatile stocks at the exact bottom and sell at the exact top.

 

[Morrischiano]

I know one thing. The one account I have that is managed 3rd party NY Firm (I do all the rest) just went from 30-45-25 (funds/stocks/cash) to 99% equities on Monday. I myself have been 90% out of cash for a couple of months.

I am slowly turning from negative to neutral on the market because I believe that the market is no longer pricing in soft landing and rate cuts in 2023. What is also looking likely is that a lot of companies are going to do well because of pricing power above the net cost of inputs.

I’m not going all in but covered my 10% short and am thoughtfully coverting that to single stock cheap tickers that have a good story.

Posting trades here when I remember.

 

[Goo]

We've discussed many times here....
disinflation is NOT deflation...
just because we've seen a lot of disinflation over the last year - doesn't mean inflation is over..
even when inflation is back to target levels.. the damage done will be great.

Correct….

“The fact is, the Fed pumped trillions of dollars into the economy starting after the 2008 financial crisis and then doubling down during the pandemic. The price inflation we’re experiencing today is a symptom of that monetary malfeasance. The Fed can’t fix this problem with some rate hikes and a modest decrease to its balance sheet. It needs to pull trillions of dollars in liquidity out of the economy.

And it can’t.” - P Schiff

The CPI Mirage

 

[T2Kplus20]

WHat do you think about MRNA? It looks cheap at 7.8 P/E with 5.3 debt: capital and the technicals look upward drifty.

Okay, my thoughts on MRNA:

I like Moderna a lot, but as with all biotechs (even a mature rev producing one), they are riskier than traditional pharma. Moderna's vaccine business is rock solid. Sure, 2021 and 2022 rev was likely inflated due to the COVID vaccine, but they have already announced $5B in COVID vaccine sales for 2023. Any downside or regression to the mean is likely public and baked into analyst targets.

Their mRNA tech is outstanding. Huge advancement vs traditional vaccines in terms of development timelines, safety, and adaptability (i.e., dealing with new strains, if relevant). Their vaccine business should grow briskly since their vaccine pipeline is stacked.

The big risk/reward for Moderna is can they apply mRNA to other areas like ONC, CARDIO, and rare diseases? This is the ball game. If yes, Moderna may become a legit pharma/HC big boy in terms of rev and earnings. If no, they will still have a strong vaccine business that will increase share, but this business has some limitations (like population growth and natural herd immunity).

I own a good amount of MRNA via a few HC funds and ETFs. The irrational price spike in 2020/2021 is long over, so now may be a good time to buy (for a trade or hold).

I can post Morningstar's analysis later.

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

Correct….

“The fact is, the Fed pumped trillions of dollars into the economy starting after the 2008 financial crisis and then doubling down during the pandemic. The price inflation we’re experiencing today is a symptom of that monetary malfeasance. The Fed can’t fix this problem with some rate hikes and a modest decrease to its balance sheet. It needs to pull trillions of dollars in liquidity out of the economy.

And it can’t.” - P Schiff

The CPI Mirage

Well, it can a bit. About 1T has already wrung out over last 9 months. But still another 3T to go. Plus on-shoring and dedollarization will be inflationary. So, it’s a longer road than 2 Qs of “well it’s not 6%” and “rents will drop”.

 

[Knight Owl]

Well, it can a bit. About 1T has already wrung out over last 9 months. But still another 3T to go. Plus on-shoring and dedollarization will be inflationary. So, it’s a longer road than 2 Qs of “well it’s not 6%” and “rents will drop”.

And Schiff sells shiny metal. He is never not selling shiny metal.

 

[T2Kplus20]

And Schiff sells shiny metal. He is never not selling shiny metal.

+1
Schiff is a biased source and was wrong from 2009 to 2022. Careful with his "advice".

 

[T2Kplus20]

Nat Gas still flirting with that $2 level. Dipped below for a brief moment, but then rebounded a smidge. Waiting for that legit sub-$2 move for a short-term play. We shall see!