OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Nice day for the bigs. Tough day for small and mid growth indexes:
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Mike Santoli on CNBC kind of shot it down, yes it's high, but it typically tracks the S&P, so since the S&P is at all time high, it's not surprising margin dept is as well.
Relative to the S&P it was actually higher in May of 2018. S&P is up 35% since then, margin dept up 7%.
Not that I partake in margin trading.
Here’s the FINRA press release WSJ cites. when you look at the historical data, it’s not really that alarming of an increase, and a healthy 20% drop will flush out those bull market geniuses.
Margin Statistics
Pursuant to FINRA Rule 4521, FINRA member firms carrying margin accounts for customers are required to submit the following customer information: the total of all debit balances in securities margin accounts; and, the total of all free credit balances in all cash accounts and all securities...
That is awesome. You invest in nano cap, micro cap, small cap, crypto currencies, large cap growth, large cap value stocks, etc. You pivot from one category to another without any hesitation. Good luck man. I hope it works out for you.
Reading recommendations on the size of ones portfolio it sounds like I carry way too many positions. But I enjoy hunting for stocks, and being so diversified, and I do try to stay diversified, does afford me some safety, though maybe it limits my upside.
I fight back against some recommendations by more experienced guys here, but someone mentioned the "bears bulls and pigs" recently and that thinking def influenced me pairing down those recent high runners. I do listen.
Maybe in time I learn it's better to clean things up and carry less, but for now it's working pretty well. Living and learning.
Remember, as Mark Cuban says, everyone is a genius in a bull market.
For those CNBC fans how bout a game of "would you rather" in the value tech sector?
INTC. P/E of 9. EPS of 5.10, Dividend of 2.8%. 52 week high of $69, currently trading at $43. Rev's are flat over the past 5 qtr's, but the previous 5 years showed some solid growth. Always in the black, though earnings growth has leveled as well. 2 bad qtr's in a row and all the news lately seems to be about losing customers and market share. $22 stock in 2010, and as I mentioned above was up to $69 in this past year.
Or
LUMN. P/E of 8.3, EPS of 1.2, dividend of 10%. 52 week high of $15, currently at $9.8. Jump in revs from 2017 to 2018, but were flat prior and since. They were in the red in 18-19 though they have gone back into the black in recent quarters. In 2007 this was a $50 stock but has broken down since then.
Lumen looks more like a complete turnaround play, not unlike GE, but the dividend is enticing, and they have returned to profitability. Intel was a mega cap growth stock prior to this year though they have hit a bump in the road, question is, is it a blip or the beginning of a trend.
INTC. P/E of 9. EPS of 5.10, Dividend of 2.8%. 52 week high of $69, currently trading at $43. Rev's are flat over the past 5 qtr's, but the previous 5 years showed some solid growth. Always in the black, though earnings growth has leveled as well. 2 bad qtr's in a row and all the news lately seems to be about losing customers and market share. $22 stock in 2010, and as I mentioned above was up to $69 in this past year.
Or
LUMN. P/E of 8.3, EPS of 1.2, dividend of 10%. 52 week high of $15, currently at $9.8. Jump in revs from 2017 to 2018, but were flat prior and since. They were in the red in 18-19 though they have gone back into the black in recent quarters. In 2007 this was a $50 stock but has broken down since then.
Lumen looks more like a complete turnaround play, not unlike GE, but the dividend is enticing, and they have returned to profitability. Intel was a mega cap growth stock prior to this year though they have hit a bump in the road, question is, is it a blip or the beginning of a trend.
Bought back into GOLD, which has been running pretty cold of late.
Currently at $23, was around $21 precovid, dipped below $18 in March, was over $30 in Sept. Was as high as $50 back in 2012. P/E of 13x.
Same inflation story as Crypto, so I figure it is due. GBTC has been flying since sept, while GOLD is down since then. That was one rotation, I expect it will rotate back, at least to some extent.
Still own SMTS (a silver miner) which I've done very well with. I did trim a month ago, might bump it back up, or maybe try to hunt down a cheaper option.
Currently at $23, was around $21 precovid, dipped below $18 in March, was over $30 in Sept. Was as high as $50 back in 2012. P/E of 13x.
Same inflation story as Crypto, so I figure it is due. GBTC has been flying since sept, while GOLD is down since then. That was one rotation, I expect it will rotate back, at least to some extent.
Still own SMTS (a silver miner) which I've done very well with. I did trim a month ago, might bump it back up, or maybe try to hunt down a cheaper option.
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Or the old joke about the early 90's bear market.
"What do you call a 25 year old with an MBA?"
The fact that you said you just started stock investing in March is a big red flag. Be careful.
HA! HA! Very true. I have been researching the bear market after the Dot Com and 9/11 crashes. Very stagnant market for growth funds, but value and international performed much better. I believe 2021 will be steady as we go, but we need to keep an eye on things. :)
Another good watch. Went down this rabbit hole for a few days while researching and planning for my 2021 allocations.
737 Max back in business for Boeing:
www.cnbc.com
Boeing 737 Max passenger flights resume in U.S. after nearly two-year ban
American Airlines is the first U.S. carrier to return the Boeing 737 Max to commercial service.
Be careful chasing dividends. Some dividends are high because the underlying stock is falling. Many of those are sure to cut their dividends so you'll be stuck with lower prices and lower dividends.
737 Max back in business for Boeing:
Boeing 737 Max passenger flights resume in U.S. after nearly two-year ban
American Airlines is the first U.S. carrier to return the Boeing 737 Max to commercial service.
Somewhat related.
Bought Hawaiian Airlines. Why HA?
I figure as far as airlines go, it's more of a vacation play then most. Like that more then the business travel airlines.
Ya, I don't chase, I'm actually a little devoid of dividend stocks at the moment.
But I do think the reverse of the "high dividend red flag" could be in play right now. Some companies are so undervalued because they have been left behind as people chase the high growth into the stratosphere, that they are sticking with these high dividends, and in some cases offering special dividends. Posted a stock a couple weeks ago that offered a 25% special dividend.
Not saying LUMN fits that bill. But it might.
Watch for Manchin to then leave the Dem party, become an independent and organize with the R's. :)
A guy was on yesterday thinking such an event would trigger the 10% correction that he thought was inevitable anyways.
He also noted the market has outperformed alongside a unified gov't as opposed to a divided gov't over the last 90 years.
I figure Weed and ESG would jump in the immediate aftermath.
He'll wait to see if he gets stiffed in committee assignments but if he does I would not be at all surprised.
In case there is a Democratic sweep in Georgia, which could cause a 5-10% drop in everything but renewable energy.
Which means it's advanced as much as the Dow and NASDQ did in the first 10 years of that 30.
1)Don't forget Weed.
2)Not sure what you mean here. Nikkei was down in the first 10 of those 30 years. Dow was up about double during those 10 years.
While you all are scared to answer, the market isn't. INTC up 6%. Based on a scathing letter by Dan Loeb?
Not scared at all but I don’t follow either company closely and there is not enough information in those two or three sentences for me to make any kind of intelligent decision for my portfolio. However, shareholder activist stances such as Loeb’s can sometimes encourage the market that something may change for the better.
Wise decision to be caution. One of WB's rules.....most news isn't news it's just noise.
Most of our portfolio is in Vanguard funds, though about 15% is in individual equities. I’m more of a buy and hold investor unless something fundamentally changes in an adverse way in terms of the company, specific industry, or regulatory environment. I do watch and read the financial media as well as academic and other related sources but I really don’t trade much at all on “news” or forecasts.
You were mentioning dot.com before. I was very much involved in M&A at the time and it was crazy. Valuations were not really based on common fundamentals, day traders were pouring into the market because everyone was making money. You’d get into a car service or barber shop and everyone had a stock tip though there was very little financial literacy. Many of the relatively new market participants hadn’t been through a significant correction and it was just like the Wild West. There may be some similarities today. I’m optimistic about the future long term but won’t try to predict the short term. Hence the tendency to buy and hold and be well diversified within my own investment policy approach. Good luck to all in whatever approach they take!
Maybe it's not necessary in a normal market, but I think these days, when looking at what the market is doing, the R2K should be up there with the big 3 indexes. I feel just looking at the big 3 does not give a very complete view of what is going on on a particular day.
+1
I always track the R2K. I also love the Morningstar Market Barometer since it shows value, core, and growth buckets.
Markets - US Stock Market Indexes | Morningstar
Keep current with what is going on in the markets with our real-time trackers that show major indexes, global markets, stock sectors and more.
An example of it's multiple timeline views:
He stole that from Warren Buffet.
Another Buffet quote appropriate for this market: "when the tide goes out, you realize who's not wearing their bathing suit".
edited to fix it. Thanks MDK!
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E-Trade has a bunch of different stuff that I haven't fully delved into yet.+1
I always track the R2K. I also love the Morningstar Market Barometer since it shows value, core, and growth buckets.
Markets - US Stock Market Indexes | Morningstar
Keep current with what is going on in the markets with our real-time trackers that show major indexes, global markets, stock sectors and more.
An example of it's multiple timeline views:
The do have a cool stock screener tool which I'll comb through from time to time.
And more recently having been bought up by Morgan Stanley, all of MS's stock analysis is available, been using that a little.
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