Meh. Even after the vaccine, the movie industry will likely be scaled down and consolidated. Streaming services will continue to grow (even with feature length movies).
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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I won't disagree that new movie dtc streaming will cut into the business. But to what extent? Going to the movies is a getting out of the house/date night/hanging with friends activity as much as it is seeing the movie.
If we agree that people will want to get out of the house post covid, then give me the out of the house activity that will cut into the movie business. Otherwise I think it will continue to be a destination.
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As with all market movements, I guess it comes down to expectations. Let's say the street expects a 20% decrease in attendance.
If it is actually under 20%, the stock will go up
If it is actually over 20%, the stock will go down
All about expectations!
But what is your starting point? I think it's all about how it relates to precovid levels. If attendance gets back to 80% of precovid levels, then the stock price is likely going to double from here(which would put it where is was a month ago), which would still be 30ish% less then the precovid stock price.
But even before that, if covid #'s are way down in spring and people are out and about, and AMC has not gone bankrupt before then, the stock price is going to be up.
At least that's what my crystal ball is telling me.
I was down, many of my high flyers pulled back a bit.
My bitcoin plays have been on such a run that they have become influencers in my portfolio.
ABML rebounded though which was nice.
My portfolio 2020 return is tracking to about +20%. YTD I was at 19.02% last week, but a few accounts only had returns to 11/30. Gotta beat the S&P! :)
I cheated cause I jumped in on the dip, so it will be fun to track it next year.
Gotcha. We all started somewhere. I cut my losses early and let my winners ride for decades. My cost basis in the big techs are all single digits from the late 90s/early 00s. I honestly don't even keep track of daily/monthly/yearly performance anymore. Apple wants to retrace 30% in Q1, that's perfectly fine with me, I'll ride it out.
+1
I finally put together a spreadsheet to track our entire portfolio returns (based on a weighted average of 7 main investment accounts). This doesn't include cash, CDs, daughter's 529, or company LTI/RSU awards. Just what we are considering "retirement".
Fun stuff!
I'm currently very much enjoying the daily tracking, finding new stocks, and making trades. Maybe in time it gets old and I just pick some stocks to ride long term, but for now I'm in it up to my elbows.
E-Trade makes it pretty easy, can even track and compare my performance vs other indices over the past 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and ytd.
I keep a fairly sizable buffer in my bank account just in case, and I own a multi family house, but e-trade is the extent of my non house investments.
I would like to consolidate data in E-Trade or Morningstar, but it turned out that a manual spreadsheet was easier. We use Mint to track our total net worth (everything I mentioned above plus our home equity). but that doesn't give RoR to my knowledge.
I will be tracking YTD returns and once a given year is over, archive it and start with the new year. Our annual return goal is 7.5%. That benchmark will achieve our retirement goal (which once was considered a super stretch is now our base case after several good years of returns and comp).
Looking forward to wrapping 2020 and starting 2021!
Having started in March, a 7% annual return is going to be tough to accept going fwd. A 7% month is kind of meh this year.
+1
Hoping to do much better than that, but that's our lower benchmark. No need to take crazy risks. Stick to the plan.
Given I know you guys love the CNBC guys I'll note that Josh Brown said something along the line of a 10-15% return being a bar he looks to clear.
I thought that rather impressive, and encouraging, I mean, if he can do it, I can definitely do it.
If we can do an average of 10%, we will have an 8-figure retirement even after our 2 houses (Stone Harbor, NJ and likely somewhere in the SW). Merry Christmas to us! 😁
What are you guys planning for college costs? I am planning to pay for my grandchildren's college. I am setting aside funds for 4 years at an equivalent cost at Rutgers inclusive of room and board.
What is the current cost per year and what are you estimating the future cost. My first grand kid is only 2 years old.
What is the current cost per year and what are you estimating the future cost. My first grand kid is only 2 years old.
No kids so I'm not sweating it.
If I did have kids I'd push the path that I myself took, 2 years community college 2 years at a state school. And that is if they want to go to college, and not just learn a trade, or perhaps go military first.
Now if you want to go all in I'm sure you could spend upwards of $200K on a 4 year education in the year 2035.
Good age to start for college financial planning (we started when our little one was 1.5 years old). Anyway, our goal is $200k for college/grad school. We put in about $100k of principle and it has grown quite nicely (80% stock indexes, 20% bonds). We are done with regular contributions, but based on birthday and other special day gifts from GPs and other family members, we add $2-3k to this pile each year. This will allow us to withdraw $10k a year for private K-12 expenses (tuition for 9 years, grades 4-12) and still be at $200k'ish in the end.
Top rated 529 plans (we use NY's plan which is Silver rated and uses Vanguard funds):
The Top 529 College Savings Plans of 2020
A look at how 529 investments stack up under our enhanced methodology.
Good age to start for college financial planning (we started when our little one was 1.5 years old). Anyway, our goal is $200k for college/grad school. We put in about $100k of principle and it has grown quite nicely (80% stock indexes, 20% bonds). We are done with regular contributions, but based on birthday and other special day gifts from GPs and other family members, we add $2-3k to this pile each year. This will allow us to withdraw $10k a year for private K-12 expenses (tuition for 9 years, grades 4-12) and still be at $200k'ish in the end.
Top rated 529 plans (we use NY's plan which is Silver rated and uses Vanguard funds):
The Top 529 College Savings Plans of 2020
A look at how 529 investments stack up under our enhanced methodology.www.morningstar.com
That is the fund I am in also. I started when my granddaughter turned 1 but I bought back the entire first year at $100 a week. I just recently moved to $150 a week. I like the idea of contributing $100,000 and having the growth cover the balance.
That is a fine plan. I happen to be fortunate that I can plan to cover the cost so I would like to do so.
+1
That seemed like a nice and simple approach. Get the principle in quickly and maximize the years of growth (which is the biggest issue with 529 plans, you are on a shot clock!). For NY Saver, we are currently:
40% VG Growth
20% VG Mid-Caps
20% VG Small-Caps
20% VG Total Bond Market
We are not using the VG Total Stock Market fund because it is combined with the VG Total International Stock Market fund (in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio). Overall, global equities continue to lag big-time so we are avoiding.
1)Where is the price set? Is it on a market somewhere?
2)at what point do you say: aight this is getting a little too hot. Im selling. Is there a price target in your mind? Or a consensus point, like that 19,000 level where it will take a break and consolidate?
3)I also own RIOT, (which is up 40% in 3 weeks), so as I say above these crypto stocks have grown to a fairly significant percentage(around 5%) so a big jump there would certainly show up on the portfolio bottom line. I was looking at another crypto oriented stock, though I forget which one.
You can google bitcoin to find its price. I bookmarked CoinDesk which quote bitcoin price and has some interesting articles and podcasts. Bitcoin trades 24/7 around the world. You won't get a GBTC update until the premarket tomorrow.
I read up on RIOT, similar to MARA, which I've been in and out of. MARA more closely tracks ethereum and bitcoin, whereas ETHE is a Grayscale trust strictly for ethereum.
As to when you sell, that's a personal decision. The last big run up from 1000 to 19,000 had 7 pullbacks of over 20%. If this run up mirrors the last run up, bitcoin would have to reach heights above 100k. Every halving had a huge run up for 12-18 months following. This time seems different with all the institutions getting involved (Paypal, Square, MassMutual, Strategic Microsystems, Ruffer, Guggenheim). Buy/sell at your own comfort level.
My questions for 2021:
1. Will growth stocks and tech still dominate?
2. Will the Q4 booming small cap market continue to grow (e.g. R2K)?
3. Will value stocks ever make a come back? Still lagging well behind.
4. Any hope for international markets? Underperforming for years now. Which ones will pop?
1. Will growth stocks and tech still dominate?
2. Will the Q4 booming small cap market continue to grow (e.g. R2K)?
3. Will value stocks ever make a come back? Still lagging well behind.
4. Any hope for international markets? Underperforming for years now. Which ones will pop?
Here's an interesting point of view from Ron Insana, formerly of CNBC, now a private wealth manager:
Ron Insana: If Democrats stage an upset win in Georgia, it may not be the market head wind you think
Single party rule has its advantages which, in this case, may surprise many in Washington but will most certainly surprise many, many more on Wall Street.
Here's an interesting point of view from Ron Insana, formerly of CNBC, now a private wealth manager:
Ron Insana: If Democrats stage an upset win in Georgia, it may not be the market head wind you think
Single party rule has its advantages which, in this case, may surprise many in Washington but will most certainly surprise many, many more on Wall Street.www.cnbc.com
1. Insana, politically, is left of center and the article is slanted.
2. Based on numbers through 12/24 as reported in the WSJ, the Democrats are now outspending the Republicans in Georgia.
+1Here's an interesting point of view from Ron Insana, formerly of CNBC, now a private wealth manager:
Ron Insana: If Democrats stage an upset win in Georgia, it may not be the market head wind you think
Single party rule has its advantages which, in this case, may surprise many in Washington but will most certainly surprise many, many more on Wall Street.
The Dem House majority is razor thin and likely unworkable from a big idea liberalism POV. And as the article mentions, either the R's will have a majority in the Senate, or you will have Manchin and a few other Dem mods block anything wacko. Either scenario is good for the market.
Also, as I keep saying, as long as interest rates stay at zero and the feds keep pumping, where the hell else can most people put their money?
True, the Dems are spending more, but seriously, spending the most doesn't matter anymore. 2016, 2018, and 2020 proved that.
I don’t disagree, just pointing out that the market may not crash if Dems win in Georgia
I think MARA was the one I was looking at, but as it's chart ran very similar to RIOT, I figured it redundant.
So looking for other crypto options, preferably ones that are lagging the moves. Plenty of penny stock OTC options. Just a few I stumbled on were RKFL(very low volume, price trending downward), BCII(better volume, spiked in June significant downward trend since), HTBC(doesn't even have a chart, lol)
But a couple whose charts look like they have some potential.
LBCC, volume has increased significantly in recent days from pretty consistently sub 50K shares per day to around 500K average the last 3 days, and the price has more then tripled from under 10 cents to .35 cents since last week. Market cap of $10 million
BTCS, better overall volume, both historically and recently then LBCC, pretty consistently 500K+ earlier in the month, 15 million on the 17th, 10 day average of 3.5 million. Like BCII above it spiked in June, trended downward since, but rebounded in the last couple weeks jumping from 12 cents to 22 cents. Market cap of $7.9 million.
Obviously these are dice rollers, if you are looking for fundamentals, these are certainly not for you, and if I do buy in, it would be a very small position, but like ABML, they could get swept up in the story and if so, potential for significant gains. Both have actually already seen significant gains in recent days.
I'll probably throw some $$$'s down on BTCS tomorrow.
Some thought that the 10yr will continue it's climb and get up over 1%, the CNBC guy who gives the jobs report predicted 1.6% at some point in 2021.
Will that be enough to take away from equities?
As per politics the market has, to this point, liked the idea of gov't spending money. Though where is the point of diminishing returns?
Also, renewables, ev, and cannabis will probably all like the dems winning georgia, while oil, not so much.
Not crash. But there is a consensus among the Dems to raise the corporate tax rate to 28%. That will not tank the market, but it will go lower.
Im with you 05. I had several funds and plans Ive put into for years but never really had fun with trading individual stocks. I opened my Robinhood acct Mar 21. Talk about perfect timing. I'm up 88% ytd, and thats with me being super conservatize early on, at the exact time when I shouldnt have been. 7% annual returns are going to be a very difficult pill to swallow in the future.
BTC is nuts. I knew about it early on and could have mined, but instead chose to mock it. Shame on me. I cried during the run in 2017. Exhaled when in bottomed out. And truthfully, I was late to the rodeo putting into it this time around, as my entry point was around 8k. Once again, I wish I wasnt so conservative.
I should have put more in after listening to Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy talk about his companies BTC holdings. Between his bold move, the May halving, Paul Tudor Jones' comments/investment, and Square and Paypal/Venmo announcing BTC payments on their platforms, the jump we're seeing now was expected. That's the big difference between this bull run and 2017.
17 was fueled by Joey Jerkoff telling his friends ohhh look at this, I made 2k today. It was almost all retail investors who were left holding the bag when it quickly bottomed out in 2018. This time around, it's Wall St buying and holding. They're pulling their coins off of the exchanges and hodling them. That is a clear store of value sign. Watch and see has more funds and firms start committing a small allocation to BTC. 1% here and there is enough to push this to 100-250k in the next 36 mos.
Another big difference this time around is that the altcoins or shitcoins are not growing with BTC. in 17, every Ant'ony in NJ was tellin their crew about this other coin that one day is gunna be worth as much as Bitcoin. I know a lot of people who jumped on Initial Coin Offerings, thinking they found the next BTC, only to realize 2 mos later that there was zero scarcity and cried as their investment went to near zero.
There's Bitcoin, Ether and then there's everything else. Bitcoin currently has a 70% cyrpto dominance over all of the other coins combined. Ether has about 10 - 12% of the remaining space in the crpyto world with everything else accounting for the remaining 20%. I touched on BTC before, but the Ethereum blockchain is exciting. There's a real use value in that chain, and there is a ton of $$$ being invested into it. A lot of the other altcoins or tokens are being run on that chain. 95% are pure shit. There's a few that are potentially worth while. AAVE, AXS & WOZX are the three Ethereum tokens that Im intrigued by.
AAVE - a DeFi play with scarcity. 16 mill lifetime circulation. I was able to grab some in Nov when they were in there 20's. Now fluctuating bet 70-80.
WOZX - Green energy play with Steve Wozniak of Apple involved. Opened at .10 shot to almost $4 hovering around $1.50 right now. This is a buy and hodl, as EForce the firm issuing the token has bold energy efficiency plans, assuming they can get them off the ground.
AXS - This is a crapshoot IMO, but I love the upside. There's a pokemon like game thats being played in poorer Asian countries called Axie Infinity. The game is run on the Ethereum block chain and allows its players to earn crypto buy raising and finding these pokemon like things. There's stories of people making a living just walking around the Philippines searching for monsters on their mobile. Their current price point of $.58 is cheap relative to the potential use in the event this game ever catches on globally, as well as the max circulation of the AXS token; 270mil.
For those looking to invest in BTC without actually investing in BTC, Microstrategy is where you should be. More so than Riot. Paypal is also someone that is going to see its value increase due to its ability to accept BTC and crypto as payments on its platforms. Dont be lured in by the cheap price of Riot. They were near penny stock status less than a yr ago. I wouldnt not be surprised if they did another stock offering.
Lastly, if you get a XRP/Ripple fanboy telling you its the greatest thing ever. Laugh in their face and walk away.
Sorry.... this escalated quickly.
As much as I've tried to avoid the chinese stocks(which cost me some significant potential profits in NIO) I thought the most recent BABA dip was too tempting to pass up. The antitrust lawsuit will make them change some of their practices, but it doesn't look like it will be in a significant way, and if they can ever get the ANT IPO thing going again, (and how could they not?), this one will be sitting pretty.
