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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Looks like the Fangs might get hit after earnings. I was watching CNBC yesterday and they don't expect them to go higher because they have gone up over 23% already. I agree and have a bare minimum of shares in the Fangs. We will see after the market closes.
 
Looks like the Fangs might get hit after earnings. I was watching CNBC yesterday and they don't expect them to go higher because they have gone up over 23% already. I agree and have a bare minimum of shares in the Fangs. We will see after the market closes.
Been patiently sitting on a ton of new cash for any meaningful dips. More TQQQ, QLD, CURE, LABU, and UWM would be greatly appreciated! :)
 
Banks breaking down lower now.

FRC down 44%
Comerica down 7%
Northern Trust down 10%
 
It will go down and then I pounce on it.
I'm in a very good position. Got enough of those leveraged plays so if the market goes straight to ATHs I would be perfectly satisfied. However, I'm still sitting on about 35% of all our March bonuses to move in if levels are hit.
In the meanwhile, we keep buying all of our normal funds and ETFs as per our schedule.
 
Gov'ment at it again? Shades of 2008/2009. Pushing banks into riskier mortgages in the name of expanding homeownership. I think we read this book before:

Dumb as hell, but also meaningless. A marginally better APR won't do anything to prevent FTHBs and lower credit/income individuals from being outbid 95%+ of the time.
 
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MSFT goes KABOOM! Huge performance this Q:


Microsoft shares rose 5% in extended trading on Tuesday after the software maker issued fiscal third-quarter results that exceeded analysts’ predictions.

Here’s how the company did:

Earnings: $2.45 per share, vs. $2.23 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.

Revenue: $52.86 billion, vs. $51.02 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
 
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And a double beat for GOOGL with a $70B buyback:


Other earnings news - lots of nice beats (except for Enphase):

Enphase Energy
— The solar inverter company saw shares slide about 16% after hours after reporting a mixed quarter that included disappointing revenue results. Enphase brought in revenues of $726 million. Analysts were looking $732.5 million, according to Refinitiv. Competitor SolarEdge
slid more than 6%.

PacWest Bancorp
— Shares of the regional bank jumped 15% after PacWest said it has seen deposit inflows over the past month. PacWest said deposits fell more than 16% during the first quarter to roughly $28.2 billion. However, the bank said it has added about $1.8 billion in deposits since March 20, which was its prior update to investors. That sum includes $700 million in deposits in April. PacWest also reported a net loss of $1.21 billion for the quarter, due largely to a goodwill impairment charge.

Chipotle Mexican Grill
— The burrito chain jumped 7.7% after hours following the company’s latest financial results. Chipotle’s earnings and revenue for the first quarter beat estimates by analysts surveyed by Refinitv. Same-store sales rose 10.9%, topping StreetAccount estimates of 8.6%.

Texas Instruments
— The chipmaker gained nearly 2% after reporting better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter and revenue that was in line with estimates, according to Refinitiv.

Visa
— The payments giant rose almost 2% in extended trading after reporting adjusted earnings of $2.09 per share on revenues of $7.99 billion for its latest quarter, according to Refinitiv. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.99 per share on revenues of $7.79 billion.
 
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sometimes, a little perspective:

FulgsqHWcBU0uWa
 
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Buy MSFT, buy some more, buy even more, put it on a shelf and don't look at it until the end of the decade. You will be very happy.

Great visual, thanks for posting!
Bought it right after the IPO in the 80’s. Unfortunately, it was a small purchase. Still paid off my mortgage and still own several hundred shares. Long term hold for me.
 
It closed at 16 yesterday and traded above 15 yesterday
Ha, yeah I was aware. Was around $12 at the time of that post. Down to $8.20 today.

Bought back those $15 calls, hoping for some level of bounce and will then resell calls again. May 5th $10 strikes can get a $1 of premium.
 
Bought MMM this morning after their earnings were released at $105.50.

Not even sure what it did today, but I'll be looking to hold this for awhile.
 
Why would the banks buy the loans above where they are marked?

Advisors to First Republic will attempt to cajole the big U.S. banks who’ve already propped it up into doing one more favor, CNBC has learned.

The pitch is something like this: Purchase bonds from First Republic at above-market rates for a loss of a few billion dollars. If not, these same banks will face roughly $30 billion in FDIC fees when First Republic fails.

The advisors have already lined up potential purchasers of new First Republic stock if they can fix the bank’s balance sheet, according to sources.

First Republic loaded up on low-yielding assets including Treasuries, municipal bonds and mortgages, making what was essentially a bet that interest rates wouldn’t rise. When they did, the bank found itself with tens of billions of dollars in losses. The bank is weighing the sale of $50 billion to $100 billion in debt, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.

By drastically reducing the size of its balance sheet, the bank’s capital ratios will suddenly be far healthier, paving the way for it to raise more funds and continue as an independent company.

Other possible, but less-likely moves include converting the big bank’s deposits into equity, or even finding a buyer. But a suitor hasn’t emerged in the past month, and isn’t likely given that any purchaser would also own the losses on First Republic’s balance sheet.

Those close to the banks were hesitant to endorse a plan in which they would have to recognize losses for overpaying for bonds. They also expressed distrust of government-brokered deals after some of the pacts from the 2008 financial crisis ended up being costlier than expected.

 
Advisors to First Republic will attempt to cajole the big U.S. banks who’ve already propped it up into doing one more favor, CNBC has learned.

The pitch is something like this: Purchase bonds from First Republic at above-market rates for a loss of a few billion dollars. If not, these same banks will face roughly $30 billion in FDIC fees when First Republic fails.

The advisors have already lined up potential purchasers of new First Republic stock if they can fix the bank’s balance sheet, according to sources.

First Republic loaded up on low-yielding assets including Treasuries, municipal bonds and mortgages, making what was essentially a bet that interest rates wouldn’t rise. When they did, the bank found itself with tens of billions of dollars in losses. The bank is weighing the sale of $50 billion to $100 billion in debt, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.

By drastically reducing the size of its balance sheet, the bank’s capital ratios will suddenly be far healthier, paving the way for it to raise more funds and continue as an independent company.

Other possible, but less-likely moves include converting the big bank’s deposits into equity, or even finding a buyer. But a suitor hasn’t emerged in the past month, and isn’t likely given that any purchaser would also own the losses on First Republic’s balance sheet.

Those close to the banks were hesitant to endorse a plan in which they would have to recognize losses for overpaying for bonds. They also expressed distrust of government-brokered deals after some of the pacts from the 2008 financial crisis ended up being costlier than expected.

Was the bank managed by @T2Kplus20 😀. Rates will drop!!!! Fed is wrong!!!!
 
Advisors to First Republic will attempt to cajole the big U.S. banks who’ve already propped it up into doing one more favor, CNBC has learned.

The pitch is something like this: Purchase bonds from First Republic at above-market rates for a loss of a few billion dollars. If not, these same banks will face roughly $30 billion in FDIC fees when First Republic fails.

The advisors have already lined up potential purchasers of new First Republic stock if they can fix the bank’s balance sheet, according to sources.

First Republic loaded up on low-yielding assets including Treasuries, municipal bonds and mortgages, making what was essentially a bet that interest rates wouldn’t rise. When they did, the bank found itself with tens of billions of dollars in losses. The bank is weighing the sale of $50 billion to $100 billion in debt, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.

By drastically reducing the size of its balance sheet, the bank’s capital ratios will suddenly be far healthier, paving the way for it to raise more funds and continue as an independent company.

Other possible, but less-likely moves include converting the big bank’s deposits into equity, or even finding a buyer. But a suitor hasn’t emerged in the past month, and isn’t likely given that any purchaser would also own the losses on First Republic’s balance sheet.

Those close to the banks were hesitant to endorse a plan in which they would have to recognize losses for overpaying for bonds. They also expressed distrust of government-brokered deals after some of the pacts from the 2008 financial crisis ended up being costlier than expected.


Sounds like hopium to me. Banks seem to be hesitant to take on any new debt right now.
 
Was the bank managed by @T2Kplus20 😀. Rates will drop!!!! Fed is wrong!!!!
I'm a little surprised, although I shouldn't be, at how much trouble they still have even after the Fed started accepting treasuries at the window at par. It's crazy how levered they were in the long term to low rates.

Wonder if deposit base composition is considered a risk now and how FRC compares to your typical bank or the big banks. I don't know that they would've had as much of an issue if they had a higher percentage of mom and pop depositors under the FDIC limits.
 
I'm a little surprised, although I shouldn't be, at how much trouble they still have even after the Fed started accepting treasuries at the window at par. It's crazy how levered they were in the long term to low rates.

Wonder if deposit base composition is considered a risk now and how FRC compares to your typical bank or the big banks. I don't know that they would've had as much of an issue if they had a higher percentage of mom and pop depositors under the FDIC limits.

Their client base is pretty high end. Especially those that came through their financial advisors.

Apparently they have a ton of IO loans on residential RE.
 
Their client base is pretty high end. Especially those that came through their financial advisors.

Apparently they have a ton of IO loans on residential RE.
They offered wealthy buyers low interest rates on IO mortgages and rising rates have screwed their loans which sums to about $20B — there was an article on this yesterday from business insider
 
ATVI down 10% this morning on news that the UK has rejected the MSFT deal.

ATVI is a good company though with solid earnings growth.

I own it, fairly big position already, so I may not add, but I'm in the red this morning because of it.
 
ATVI down 10% this morning on news that the UK has rejected the MSFT deal.

ATVI is a good company though with solid earnings growth.

I own it, fairly big position already, so I may not add, but I'm in the red this morning because of it.
They should move forward with the purchase anyway. No reason to let the UK block anything meaningful.
 
I did...unfortunately it was with the local bank savings account.
Passbook savings lol. Maybe banks should just start doing their own alt-right media shows and sell ad time from prepper supply companies. Would be a less awkward business model somehow than what many currently use.
 
Passbook savings lol. Maybe banks should just start doing their own alt-right media shows and sell ad time from prepper supply companies. Would be a less awkward business model somehow than what many currently use.
When I was in 6th grade they opened a new bank in Dayton..1st bank in Dayton lol. I was the school store President (Crossroads in S. Brunswick) and treasurer and we opened a school account. I was interviewed on WCTC with Jack Ellery from the bank and I said some nice things about the bank. After the interview Jack autographed something and wrote "Good Luck in your future as a PR guy" and the bank president walked over and gave me a new transistor radio lol. I still have the picture of me and the two other reps opening it that ran in the Home News. Big story back in the day lol.
I opened my own account I mentioned and it was numbered 16.
The look on the tellers faces many years later when I came in with account number 16! I kept it with a tiny balance just because of that. Priceless.
 
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