OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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If you are into LEAPs (which I am not), you should look into PLTR for 2025. Premiums for $30 strike is less than 10%. Today was a gift day to buy those shares. If RIVN drops like that tomorrow, then it will be a day to buy as well.
China stocks especially BABA, BIDU, PDD, NIO looking like they are primed to break out. With BABA reporting thursday, it will be a big day. The only down side is that Chinese government is completely crazy and unpredictable.
Yes, PLTR is a great LEAPs play as well. I will check it out. May pull the trigger on RIVN today depending on how it performs post-earnings. I'm still in on BABA and FXI Jan 2024 calls. Technicals are lining up big for China stocks, but as you said, the gov'ment can't go crazy for a while. Sounds like more stimulus is coming and the gov'ment needs these big companies to help reignite economic growth. So maybe the gov'ments heavy hands will finally work in our favor?
By the way, do you look at premium vs strike price for that 10% (or current price)? I normally look at delta vs premium to see how much a call will move in the future. Does that make sense?
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More stimulus is coming but not sure if it's too late.
Country Garden, China’s Largest Surviving Developer, Sinks Into Debt Crisis
Country Garden Holdings, once lauded by China’s authorities as a model for others, missed interest payments on two U.S. dollar bonds.
www.wsj.com
PLTR with an 18x price to rev's, q2 yoy growth was about 15%. 20ish% expected growth yoy looking ahead.
That's some pretty modest growth for that multiple.
I bought the Jan $14 strike puts.
Up 28% today.So, you are now trying to lose money? :)
I'll probably be out of this by end of Sept.
Not a shorter, but shorting a sentiment driven stock whose fundamentals are actually improving seems to be the most risky play in that direction.
Disney posts mixed results for quarter plagued by streaming woes, restructuring costs
Subscriber losses continued over the last three months, with the company reporting 146.1 million Disney+ subscribers, a 7.4% decline.
Bad quarter, but not awful. The conference call will be important. The stock seems stuck in the mid/upper 80s level. I would love to see one more big flush and then it may be time for a LEAPs call. Iger and Disney has all the makings of turnaround story in 2024, especially since the bar is being set so low.Disney posts mixed results for quarter plagued by streaming woes, restructuring costs
Subscriber losses continued over the last three months, with the company reporting 146.1 million Disney+ subscribers, a 7.4% decline.www.cnbc.com
Update - DIS popping a bit afterhours based on Iger's comments on the call:
Disney to raise price on ad-free Disney+ to $13.99 per month starting October 12
Disney is raising prices on almost all of its streaming offerings as it looks to accelerate its profitability timeline.
Disney says it will crack down on password sharing, following Netflix's lead
Disney CEO Bob Iger said Wednesday Disney will begin rolling out a crackdown on password sharing for its streaming services next year.
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I’ve said before I still think it’s got good support here in the 80s.Bad quarter, but not awful. The conference call will be important. The stock seems stuck in the mid/upper 80s level. I would love to see one more big flush and then it may be time for a LEAPs call. Iger and Disney has all the makings of turnaround story in 2024, especially since the bar is being set so low.
Update - DIS popping a bit afterhours based on Iger's comments on the call:
Disney to raise price on ad-free Disney+ to $13.99 per month starting October 12
Disney is raising prices on almost all of its streaming offerings as it looks to accelerate its profitability timeline.
Disney says it will crack down on password sharing, following Netflix's lead
Disney CEO Bob Iger said Wednesday Disney will begin rolling out a crackdown on password sharing for its streaming services next year.
It’s already had a big run which looks to have stalled.
And by buying puts, as opposed to shorting the stock, my risk is defined.
PSA for everyone. Good CPI print today, but look at the details. Shelter represents the large majority of current inflation. OER is finally falling and will continue to do so for the next 12 months. It will likely turn negative/deflationary in the math in early 2024. Since OER is 30% of headline and 40% of core, we won't be worrying about the 2% Fed target for much longer.
As per the NY Fed, look for rate cuts in H1 of 2024 as the Fed moves back to a neutral policy. Don't need to be restrictive when high inflation is gone.
www.cnbc.com
As per the NY Fed, look for rate cuts in H1 of 2024 as the Fed moves back to a neutral policy. Don't need to be restrictive when high inflation is gone.
July CPI report shows inflation gauge rose 3.2%, less than expected
The consumer price index in July was expected to rise 0.2% from the prior month and 3.3% from a year ago, according to Dow Jones.
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Good point on capping risk, that's a nice feature for calls and puts.
@rurahrah000
Just started buying RIVN LEAP calls (Dec 2025, $40 strike, $6.25). Will continue to build the position in the near future.
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agree, the trend is now down regardless of what energy doesPSA for everyone. Good CPI print today, but look at the details. Shelter represents the large majority of current inflation. OER is finally falling and will continue to do so for the next 12 months. It will likely turn negative/deflationary in the math in early 2024. Since OER is 30% of headline and 40% of core, we won't be worrying about the 2% Fed target for much longer.
As per the NY Fed, look for rate cuts in H1 of 2024 as the Fed moves back to a neutral policy. Don't need to be restrictive when high inflation is gone.
July CPI report shows inflation gauge rose 3.2%, less than expected
The consumer price index in July was expected to rise 0.2% from the prior month and 3.3% from a year ago, according to Dow Jones.
also, those looking for jobs dropping out of the employment picture is both good and bad for mkts. With china issues just starting, i think the mood of the markets will begin to look at marginal growth with slowing inflation
+1
Energy is only 7% of headline CPI and obviously not part of core. Projecting this math forward, I think we will have a "deflation scare" in H1 2024 - just like China.
Dion Rabouin from the WSJ, a recent guest on the Compound, gives his take.PSA for everyone. Good CPI print today, but look at the details. Shelter represents the large majority of current inflation. OER is finally falling and will continue to do so for the next 12 months. It will likely turn negative/deflationary in the math in early 2024. Since OER is 30% of headline and 40% of core, we won't be worrying about the 2% Fed target for much longer.
As per the NY Fed, look for rate cuts in H1 of 2024 as the Fed moves back to a neutral policy. Don't need to be restrictive when high inflation is gone.
July CPI report shows inflation gauge rose 3.2%, less than expected
The consumer price index in July was expected to rise 0.2% from the prior month and 3.3% from a year ago, according to Dow Jones.
As he mentioned, OER now accounts for 90% of core inflation. Even the Fed understands that OER is utter garbage. However, after screwing us for the past 12 months, the nonsensical OER math will benefit us over the next 12 months.
Seriously, isn't this a sad commentary on the Fed? Making forward policy decisions based on a metric that lags 9-12 months. LOL!
not for anyone that had dealt with the fed. those of us know they're fking morons. I would never hire a fed person for any position
So... happy days ARE here again? The skies above are clear again? So let's sing a song of cheer again? Haaaaaap-py days are here again?
I kid.... I kid.... Optimism is a terrific dynamic.
I kid.... I kid.... Optimism is a terrific dynamic.
I can see why OER would level off, but what makes you think it will turn negative? Rent decreases would only happen in the midst of a big oversupply/glut of rental units which I don’t foresee any time soon. You also seem to be neglecting the impact of higher interest rates which influence the rents that property owners need to charge to cover their financing cost.PSA for everyone. Good CPI print today, but look at the details. Shelter represents the large majority of current inflation. OER is finally falling and will continue to do so for the next 12 months. It will likely turn negative/deflationary in the math in early 2024. Since OER is 30% of headline and 40% of core, we won't be worrying about the 2% Fed target for much longer.
As per the NY Fed, look for rate cuts in H1 of 2024 as the Fed moves back to a neutral policy. Don't need to be restrictive when high inflation is gone.
July CPI report shows inflation gauge rose 3.2%, less than expected
The consumer price index in July was expected to rise 0.2% from the prior month and 3.3% from a year ago, according to Dow Jones.
Rent inflation remains on track to slow over the coming year
The rental rate for new leases increased about 15 percent in 2021, despite a modest increase in the most commonly watched U.S. inflation gauges. A forecast of rent inflation currently anticipates it slowing to below 6 percent by the end of first quarter 2024.
www.dallasfed.org
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It already happened. Rent turned negative a while ago based on Case Shiller, Zillow, and Redfin. It just takes 12 months for it to show up in CPI due to OER math.
Remember, if rent was $1,000 and it increases to $2,000 that’s inflation. But then it goes back to $1,500 that’s deflation even if it doesn’t get back to the starting point. It all depends on the rolling 12 month window of the math.
I know how the definition of inflation.
I just checked Zillow rent data and the US index hasn’t had a single month of declines.
Steady As She Goes: Rent Growth in June Was Perfectly Average (June 2023 Rent Report)
Asking rents climbed by $12, or 0.6%, from May to June, according to the latest edition of the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). That brings the typical
www.zillow.com
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There was a down ward trend from last Aug into Feb, but has trended upward since.
September 2024 Rent Report: Sun Belt Sees Big Declines
The national rental market held steady again in September, with median asking rents rising just 0.6% year over year. Learn everything else you need to know in our monthly report.
www.rent.com
July is not included, and May was down yoy, but that was the first down month since March 2020, and then it was up again in June.
Highlights why the fed shouldn't think that inflation has been squashed based on short term metrics.
I can see rents leveling off in the next several months, but to think we’re going to see deflation i.e. lower rents is not realistic in my opinion. The housing supply and interest rates don’t support that thesisThere was a down ward trend from last Aug into Feb, but has trended upward since.
September 2024 Rent Report: Sun Belt Sees Big Declines
The national rental market held steady again in September, with median asking rents rising just 0.6% year over year. Learn everything else you need to know in our monthly report.
July is not included, and May was down yoy, but that was the first down month since March 2020, and then it was up again in June.
Highlights why the fed shouldn't think that inflation has been squashed based on short term metrics.
Not with low unemployment and wage growth.
I do think there is supply coming on line though, as evidenced by the run in home builders.
Easy Google search:I know how the definition of inflation.
I just checked Zillow rent data and the US index hasn’t had a single month of declines.
Steady As She Goes: Rent Growth in June Was Perfectly Average (June 2023 Rent Report)
Asking rents climbed by $12, or 0.6%, from May to June, according to the latest edition of the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). That brings the typical
Rent is falling across the U.S. for the first time since 2020
After topping out last year at nearly $1,800 per month, rent is finally starting to ease, new data shows.
www.cbsnews.com
Many others like this. I've posted a bunch of articles in the past and CNBC videos.
Here is another source that shows the CPI lag very clearly:
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Remember, YoY is a very lagging metric (1 month of new data and 11 months of old data). Looking at MoM data you see tons of months with rent deflation, which is why the YoY math will eventually catch-up (e.g., CPI OER). The math is baked.There was a down ward trend from last Aug into Feb, but has trended upward since.
September 2024 Rent Report: Sun Belt Sees Big Declines
The national rental market held steady again in September, with median asking rents rising just 0.6% year over year. Learn everything else you need to know in our monthly report.
July is not included, and May was down yoy, but that was the first down month since March 2020, and then it was up again in June.
Highlights why the fed shouldn't think that inflation has been squashed based on short term metrics.
It is fun to buy 100,000 shares of a stock though. (Not that I am here).
I’m in agreement with the lag effect and that it will help bring down CPI over the next 12 months. I dissent on the idea that rents will actually be a deflationary thingEasy Google search:
Rent is falling across the U.S. for the first time since 2020
After topping out last year at nearly $1,800 per month, rent is finally starting to ease, new data shows.
Many others like this. I've posted a bunch of articles in the past and CNBC videos.
Here is another source that shows the CPI lag very clearly:
These are noting yoy inflation, and both are saying the downward trend is only a recent thing.Easy Google search:
Rent is falling across the U.S. for the first time since 2020
After topping out last year at nearly $1,800 per month, rent is finally starting to ease, new data shows.
Many others like this. I've posted a bunch of articles in the past and CNBC videos.
Here is another source that shows the CPI lag very clearly:
The article I posted showed that yoy picked back up after the lone down month in may, and the mom's have actually been up the last 4-5 months.
And missed on everything else for 2023. :)
How many times has he pushed gold? I have seen CBW talk about it at least 5 times on Market Call. Based on what I've seen from CBW and Mark Newton over the past few months, MN puts him to shame.
