OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
CPI OER will be negative/deflationary starting in H1 2024 for 4-6 months. It's a mathematical certainty. It already happened, just gotta wait for the data lag.
They already had a 1-100 reverse split. They’re only allowed the total number of reverse splits to equal 1-1000 to remain listed on NASDAQ. The 1-9 reverse split keeps them under that limit
Added to INDI.
It's been a stock I've been watching awhile ago, and bought it a month or two back 20% higher then where it is.
Reported tonight, missed on EPS (-.10 vs-09) but beat on Rev's. Rev's were up 100% yoy.
I chased on the way up, not going to bail out now, not with growth rate. 1.3B market cap. $250m 2023 rev's expected, so 5.5x this years price to rev's which seems fine for that growth rate.
Better then 50% rev growth into 2024. Also expected to be profitable and CF positive next year as well.
It's been a stock I've been watching awhile ago, and bought it a month or two back 20% higher then where it is.
Reported tonight, missed on EPS (-.10 vs-09) but beat on Rev's. Rev's were up 100% yoy.
I chased on the way up, not going to bail out now, not with growth rate. 1.3B market cap. $250m 2023 rev's expected, so 5.5x this years price to rev's which seems fine for that growth rate.
Better then 50% rev growth into 2024. Also expected to be profitable and CF positive next year as well.
Looks like they have about $200m cash on hand:
Mullen Series D Holders Exercise Final $100 Million Investment Option Prior to June 30, 2023, Expiration
Company is in its strongest financial position ever, with over $235 million in cash and cash equivalents, representing approximately 2 years of operating capital
Speaking on EV companies, another went bankrupt a few days ago:
Electric bus maker Proterra files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
Electric bus, van and truck maker Proterra says it is seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from a federal court in Delaware.
apnews.com
I'm not familiar with Newton. But I watch CBW enough to see that he is pretty good.
The long term chart of gold does look really good, though it is taking it's sweet times breaking out to new highs.
I did watch some gold chartist and he didn't like it through the summer, thought the breakout would come in the fall.
See, the economy is falling apart!!!Speaking on EV companies, another went bankrupt a few days ago:
Electric bus maker Proterra files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
Electric bus, van and truck maker Proterra says it is seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from a federal court in Delaware.
INDI is in my EV basket, smaller position, but it looks like a great long hold company.
The chart you posted has 5 negative MoM data points, just not consecutive like other sources. Also, from a mathematical POV, you can't have a negative YoY reading without negative MoM readings part of it.
There was a downward trend for Aug of last year into Feb of this year. The trend since February is upward.
That's the problem with the short term trends, they become outdated quickly.
It was still MoM negative in April and both May and June were below +2%. CPI OER is like 8% as a comparison. So, CPI OER will head down for the next 6 months, go somewhat negative for the following 4-6 months, and then level off at +2%'ish in late 2024/early 2025.
Sounds freaking awesome to me! Sign me up. 😁
It's bounced since it's bottom, I added at $7.40, currently at 7.85, good add by me.
Cost basis of $9.05, so I still have work to do(ie open my phone to see the stock price).
What's the bet? I'm confused on what your POV is. You and RU-05 have already posted data with YoY deflationary OER and multiple months of negative growth. What's the disagreement?
How about this....
Average the first 6 YOY 2024 CPI Shelter prints starting with January. I say this average Housing CPI will be greater than zero. You say it will be zero or negative. For clarity, had this bet been done for only for one month July 2023, the result would be 7.7%
unless the mom's come down the yoy for july looks in line, August could be negative, but then yoy inflation kicks in again.
At least in my chart. Not sure what the fed uses.
The Jan print hits in Feb, so Jan thru June CPI actually means Feb thru July. Right? I'm now thinking about YoY vs MoM. Hmm.....
:)
Is AI dead already LOL? I guess it wasn’t getting enough views or clicks because barely a mention these days on CNBC. What’s the next buzz - robotic process automation (RPA)? Need Apple to announce a car or something to get the tech bulls running again.
How Amazon is racing to catch Microsoft and Google in generative A.I. with custom AWS chips
CNBC got an exclusive look inside Amazon's chip lab, where AWS designs custom silicon in a race to catch Microsoft and Google in the generative A.I. race
Thinking it has a little more to give up in the short term.
Still a long ways off from making money too. Do we know how much money they have in the piggy bank?
Little more than $10B cash on hand and short term investments.
Investor Relations - Rivian
Rivian is an electric vehicle manufacturer on a mission to keep the world adventurous forever.
rivian.com
Mark Newton held his monthly TA webinar last week and spoke for a while about RIVN. He thought $20.5 to $21.5 was the sweet spot for buying.
I don't remember ever hearing of them, so I looked a little.
$5B market cap, with zero rev's in 2023. Estimated revs of 200K in 2024. $18M in 2025. $121m in 2026.
So it's trading at a current price to 2026 rev's of 40x. When may this company actually make money? 2030 sounds optimistic.
Goldman did just raise it's price target from $1.25 to $3, but I'm not sure the reasoning.
Seeking Alpha has a buy rating, noting a strong balance sheet(just issued a bunch of new stock), commercial launch in 2024, "successful pilot activity", and "potential collaborations with industry heavyweights". Emphasis on potential imo.
The stock price suggests it was a SPAC(initially $10), and this all sounds super spac-y.
If this were a $500m market cap, then maybe, but $5b, with that rev timeline? You can buy the March 2024 $2.50 stike puts for .50's, I'd rather do that.
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The investment hypothesis I’ve got is simply this… long haul trucking is absolutely critical to the domestic supply chain. We don’t have enough drivers. Product still needs to move; trucks need to be filled and unloaded. With that — parabolic growth. And that’s to say nothin of the other commercial applications (eg autonomous taxis)
I see the hypothesis, but as of now, there is no business.
And I'm OK with the idea of getting in on a business early, I think big money can be made(or lost) on those investments, but at at $5b market cap, is it early?
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Market cap Magnitudes are so distorted at this point for growth stocks, particularly those in momentum buying periods, it’s hard to even know what constitutes good value. At $5B, no, that’s not early. But with an inflection point technology maybe that is early. I’m banking that it is
Investment is all about predicting the future, so If the technology is good, then I could see it.
When did you get in?
+1
$5B market cap is higher than QS (with both having no product as of now). One other concern is their quarterly burn rate is $218m and they only have $785m cash on hand and in short-term investments. So, there is a BIG raise coming soon.
Love the story, love the space, someone is going to be a big winner, but I would wait for the next round of financing first. Going on my watchlist! :)
Investors
Aurora (Nasdaq: AUR) is delivering the benefits of self-driving technology safely, quickly, and broadly to make transportation safer, increasingly accessible, and more reliable and efficient than ever before. The Aurora Driver is a…
ir.aurora.tech
I appreciate both of your takes. Really good stuff+1
$5B market cap is higher than QS (with both having no product as of now). One other concern is their quarterly burn rate is $218m and they only have $785m cash on hand and in short-term investments. So, there is a BIG raise coming soon.
Love the story, love the space, someone is going to be a big winner, but I would wait for the next round of financing first. Going on my watchlist! :)
Investors
Aurora (Nasdaq: AUR) is delivering the benefits of self-driving technology safely, quickly, and broadly to make transportation safer, increasingly accessible, and more reliable and efficient than ever before. The Aurora Driver is a…
3 weeks ago. I watched it debut via SPAC but had already been burned by virgin galactic so stayed far far away.
Then I watched it plummet and stay there, but was keen to get back in before 2024 as this is their year of the commercial product being available. The latest investor deck got me REALLY excited and… here I am.
I’ve only got 3k shares now but am building a position
What % of your portfolio? I understand that may be a little intrusive so feel free not to amswer.
Nikola shares fall after EV maker recalls all of its battery-electric trucks following a fire
Nikola is recalling all 209 of its battery-electric semitrucks after a June fire was traced to a truck's battery pack.
