OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Conversely I still have yet to see an EV Hummer.
I know Lightnings don't stand out, but I've only seen one.
TSLA's are everywhere.
But that does lead one to wonder about saturation.
I saw the EV hummer in the wild two weeks ago. Great looking vehicle, very strange to see it glide by silently
In NJ?
I've been intrigued by it since the SB commercials 2 years ago. Haven't seen one yet.
Headline for BLUE:
bluebird bio Confirms That FDA Has Communicated That Advisory Committee Meeting Will Not Be Scheduled for lovo-cel Gene Therapy for Sickle Cell Disease
You never know about the FDA, but this normally means an approval is likely. PDUFA is Dec 20, perhaps an options opportunity around this time frame?
bluebird bio Confirms That FDA Has Communicated That Advisory Committee Meeting Will Not Be Scheduled for lovo-cel Gene Therapy for Sickle Cell Disease
You never know about the FDA, but this normally means an approval is likely. PDUFA is Dec 20, perhaps an options opportunity around this time frame?
Unfortunately, it seems like there are only monthly options for BLUE, not weekly. Regardless, I would wait until we are much closer to the Dec 20 date anyway.
Saw a Mullen headline about their FIVE RS being unvelied.
So I went to Youtube to see what it looks like. Looks cool, but there are year old vid's about this thing. So not sure how this is an unveiling. Went back to the headline, and this is just some tour. Further digging shows production isn't supposed to start till Q4 2024.
Does appear they have sold and shipped some delivery vehicles, with those rev's appearing in the Q3 report. And it looks like there are a bunch of order lined up.
Like RIVN they are targeting markets, not covered by TSLA, in the form of delivery vehicles, at least out of the gate.
We talked about AUR and their $5B market cap being expensive. MULN has a $74M market cap which is the micro of micro. Different margins for the respective products for sure, but AUR has a valuation that is 70x MULN.
Hopping on coattails here as I know others have mentioned it, but with that market cap, with zero bounce off lows, and deliveries starting, I think I might throw a couple bucks at it.
At that market cap, if there is a product, I could see a legacy swooping in.
So I went to Youtube to see what it looks like. Looks cool, but there are year old vid's about this thing. So not sure how this is an unveiling. Went back to the headline, and this is just some tour. Further digging shows production isn't supposed to start till Q4 2024.
Does appear they have sold and shipped some delivery vehicles, with those rev's appearing in the Q3 report. And it looks like there are a bunch of order lined up.
Like RIVN they are targeting markets, not covered by TSLA, in the form of delivery vehicles, at least out of the gate.
We talked about AUR and their $5B market cap being expensive. MULN has a $74M market cap which is the micro of micro. Different margins for the respective products for sure, but AUR has a valuation that is 70x MULN.
Hopping on coattails here as I know others have mentioned it, but with that market cap, with zero bounce off lows, and deliveries starting, I think I might throw a couple bucks at it.
At that market cap, if there is a product, I could see a legacy swooping in.
MULN is a candidate for a big short squeeze.....or it may go bankrupt!
Still trying to figure out which one will come first. LOL!
Meh, they got caught up in politics. Probably better opportunities as the dust settles.
17 days of inventory is not a problem.This doesn't look very good.
Tesla New Inventory Counts, aggregated Globally
Current new inventory stats for each Tesla model, aggregated Globallytesla-info.com
@T2Kplus20
As Tesla grows production, inventory grows as well. New stores continue to open in emerging markets. Inventory will continue to increase and that's a good thing as many Tesla stores have a limited # of vehicles available for immediate purchase.
Vehicles in transit are counted as inventory and exports are prioritized earlier in each quarter. Inventory #s fall at the end of every quarter
If you’re patient, you’ll have plenty of opportunity to get in much lower. This coming from someone who believes in the company.
Expecting TSLA to move in sync with S&P. So, bulls need to take back 4500 by Fridays close to avoid spill over to 4350. TSLA needs back above 240 to avoid 210.
Bonds are a drag at the moment, so next two trading days will be tough for bulls.
That being said the big boys may need to run some stops above to castrate shorts before heading lower, so 4500 S&P is not out of the question.
See ya next month.
Bonds are a drag at the moment, so next two trading days will be tough for bulls.
That being said the big boys may need to run some stops above to castrate shorts before heading lower, so 4500 S&P is not out of the question.
See ya next month.
Except they once again cut prices.
So I think this is more then just "bigger company-bigger inventories".
Massive beat. The economy is humming along. Lots of shops dropping their recession predictions.
The entire auto industry is feeling the macro environment. This isn't an isolated Tesla situation. Autos are either cutting prices or cutting production. Tesla is playing the long game. Get vehicles into customers hands, bringing them into the Tesla ecosystem.
And BTW, don't sleep on Tesla energy. Megapack factory in Ca is just starting to ramp, with another Megapack factory on the way in China. Impressive margins already with only about 25% of capacity reached in Ca. Tesla energy will eventually surpass auto on a GWh basis.
Then, you have another half dozen "start-ups" within Tesla, or as I tell myself, free call options. Autonomy, robotaxi, software as a service, robotics, insurance, batteries, lithium and cathode refining, charging infrastructure.
I'm in for the long game, and my investment strategy is boring. Don't care about the quarterly drama. Accumulate on the cheap & hold.
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Bingo. Higher volume is more important than maximizing margin right now.
That's true, but a different story then above.
I think the growing size of Tesla minimizes the scarcity factor as well, which inevitably leads to shrinking margins.
EV competition does as well.
I doubt Tesla ever get's those 20% margins back. Not in auto sales.
And they currently have the best brand loyalty of any auto. Long game.
Just like the Apple ecosystem. That's the long game and how to maximize performance.
Did you consider the next generation vehicle platform and software margins in that prediction?
CPI CORE Update. We know CPI shelter (OER) is falling off the cliff and will do so for the next 12 months. Last month, CPI CORE came in at 0.16%. There are always variations, but since CPI shelter makes up 40% of CORE, it's safe to say that 0.16% is the high water mark for MoM CPI CORE for the next year or so.
So, what does this mean for YoY CPI CORE math? Here it is (assuming 0.16%) moving forward:
CPI CORE YoY
July 2023 = 4.7% (ACTUAL Print)
Aug 2023 = 4.3%
Sept 2023 = 4.0%
Oct 2023 = 3.8%
Nov 2023 = 3.9%
Dec 2023 = 3.9%
Jan 2024 = 3.4%
Feb 2024 = 2.8%
Mar 2024 = 2.5%
Apr 2024 = 2.2%
May 2024 = 1.9%
June 2024 = 1.8%
I would expect the average MoM to be lower than 0.16%, so our path to sub-2% will likely be quicker. We shall see. The issue with YoY math is that it takes 12 months to fully reflect reality. I would suggest that a 3-month average of MoM annualized is the most important metric to track.
So, what does this mean for YoY CPI CORE math? Here it is (assuming 0.16%) moving forward:
CPI CORE YoY
July 2023 = 4.7% (ACTUAL Print)
Aug 2023 = 4.3%
Sept 2023 = 4.0%
Oct 2023 = 3.8%
Nov 2023 = 3.9%
Dec 2023 = 3.9%
Jan 2024 = 3.4%
Feb 2024 = 2.8%
Mar 2024 = 2.5%
Apr 2024 = 2.2%
May 2024 = 1.9%
June 2024 = 1.8%
I would expect the average MoM to be lower than 0.16%, so our path to sub-2% will likely be quicker. We shall see. The issue with YoY math is that it takes 12 months to fully reflect reality. I would suggest that a 3-month average of MoM annualized is the most important metric to track.
Do we know current Rev's or Earnings from Megapack?
Autonomy and Robotaxi are big for sure. But that would be separate from auto sales.
Farmer Jim has long noted Chevy's Cruise as an under appreciated part of their future business. I think it's priced in much more for TSLA.
Timeline? And at that what % of the business would it be?
And I totally get this. If you were in early and up a huge %, and you want to play the long game? Hey it's worked, stick with it.
But "accumalating on the cheap"? I don't think that is happening at this price.
37% EPS growth expected yoy. Get that P/E down to 37x, then that look cheap. Currently trading at 47x next years eps.
Down slightly. But it was on a good run heading into the print. A little pricey at 24x next years.
WOLF has a great story and vision, but I need to see better performance. INDI has a path to profitability. I don’t see this with WOLF yet.
FYI - Articles are popping up that the Grayscale court decision should come out very soon. Perhaps next week. What is the current discount? Hmm, perhaps a MARA play in case the court rules for spot ETFs?
F it! I bought a small lottery ticket for MARA calls - Sept 15 strike. We shall see. :)
