ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Stock and Investment Talk

11906342.png
I trade in very volatile positions so it’s important to note that haha. I’ve got one fifth of my portfolio in OTM call options in 1 biotech firm

Probably would’ve been easier to just buy the SP500 but not nearly as fun haha
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20 and RU-05
TSLA down 20% from highs.
Opportunity or Caution?

How do you see it?
TSLA is a massive opportunity. Will it go lower now or in the future? No idea, but TSLA is the unquestioned leader in the EV space and its leadership is growing. It's all about TA on when and how much to by.
 
TSLA is a massive opportunity. Will it go lower now or in the future? No idea, but TSLA is the unquestioned leader in the EV space and its leadership is growing. It's all about TA on when and how much to by.
No doubt. Just talking short term, whether that’s 1-3 weeks or 1-3 months…
 
No doubt. Just talking short term, whether that’s 1-3 weeks or 1-3 months…
Short-term.....maybe a little lower, but this has been a healthy pullback. Can't go up forever! LOL. Personally, I haven't added to TSLA positions yet. Been focused on RIVN lately.
 
No doubt. Just talking short term, whether that’s 1-3 weeks or 1-3 months…
I have doubts. Tesla is acting more like a car company than a tech company. If robotaxi isn’t happening, the earnings multiple will get crushed.
 
You need to think long-term with companies like TSLA. Buy and hold and then buy some more. :)
That was true prior to early 2021. If you had bought it in late Jan of that year, you'd be down more then 20% 2.5 years later.

Now the EPS has grown 4x since then, and after an earnings trough this year, are expected to grow between 25 and 33% in the next three years, but it's still so expensive that even if it does grow at that rate, it's current price is 30x it's 2027 earnings.
 
That was true prior to early 2021. If you had bought it in late Jan of that year, you'd be down more then 20% 2.5 years later.
Not if you keep buying, you would be WAY ahead even if you started at the peak. Be careful applying fundamentals to a sentiment stock.

Sentiment, TA, and then fundamentals (most important for stock prices, in that order).
 
Not if you keep buying, you would be WAY ahead even if you started at the peak. Be careful applying fundamentals to a sentiment stock.

Sentiment, TA, and then fundamentals (most important for stock prices, in that order).
Not sure that’s the order if you are advocating long term view.
 
Not if you keep buying, you would be WAY ahead even if you started at the peak. Be careful applying fundamentals to a sentiment stock.

Sentiment, TA, and then fundamentals (most important for stock prices, in that order).
Not so sure about that. Its 40% off its highs. And hasn’t spent a ton of time below these levels since.
 
Not so sure about that. Its 40% off its highs. And hasn’t spent a ton of time below these levels since.
If you make up a case where someone bought at the absolute high, you need to be fair and assume that they also bought at $108. Right? :)
 
If you make up a case where someone bought at the absolute high, you need to be fair and assume that they also bought at $108. Right? :)
But my initial timeline was not the absolute highs, and covers a fairly long time line which leads to the present.

Down 20ish% over the last 2.5 years and current trend is downward.

It just got way too expensive. And when any stock gets that expensive it's not smart to add to indiscrimanently. Definitely would have been smart when it was in the low $100's last year though.
 
Yes it is. Most stocks with the best fundamentals are value and many of them are long term traps.
Long term traps don't have the best fundamentals. That is if you include growth in your fundamentals, which I definitely think needs to be included.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
But my initial timeline was not the absolute highs, and covers a fairly long time line which leads to the present.

Down 20ish% over the last 2.5 years and current trend is downward.

It just got way too expensive. And when any stock gets that expensive it's not smart to add to indiscrimanently. Definitely would have been smart when it was in the low $100's last year though.
Started my EV basket on Jan 2nd or 3rd, so that position looks very nice. :)
But I do add as I see fit.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
Started my EV basket on Jan 2nd or 3rd, so that position looks very nice. :)
But I do add as I see fit.
Ya, I'm not pooping on TSLA, I'd like to get in given that growth, both growth leading up into today, as well as expected growth in the future, but it still looks expensive imo.

When the P/E was 30x early this year? Fundamentally that looks like a buy. At 70x like it was last month, or 60x right now? That doesn't.
 
On a similar note, Munster was on CNBC either this morning or yesterday talking NVDA.

Says the stock is trading at 35x next years #'s, with 35% eps growth expected. PEG of 1x. Expensive if we look at the static ttm fundamentals(again trough earnings), but perhaps very reasonable if we factor in long term growth trends as well as expected growth.
 
Bought BWA recently at a little over $40. So down a tad.

10x PE, which is pretty normal for it, but expected growth looks good. Even with no multiple expansion, this could/should see 20% upside into 2025.

I only see one earnings miss in the last 4 years too.
 
Long term traps don't have the best fundamentals. That is if you include growth in your fundamentals, which I definitely think needs to be included.
This is where a lot of bears jump the shark, including our Market Call friends. It's all about P/E and valuation. Nothing ever about growth or PEG, which are way more important.
 
Sorry, what is this source saying? I looked at the charts real quick but didn't see the main message.
Inventory is up from early in the year.

I'd like to see a longer term chart for more context.
 
Last edited:
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT