The charts for both PDD and CRM look great into earnings. Nice technical and fundamental set up. I am looking for PDD to possibly run up to $125-130 and CRM to $240-245. Let’s see how this week goes with earnings.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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U nailed PDD. Though u undersold it. Currently at $138. That chart did look good.
Amazon touts 'record-breaking' sales in kickoff to holiday shopping season
The company said the period of Nov. 17 to Cyber Monday marked its "biggest ever" holiday shopping event compared to the same 11-day stretch last year.
Great call on PDD. I already own CRM, but will look into short-term call options.
It gapped more than I expected today so I closed my $130 calls for nice profit. IMHO, it will hit resistance at ~$140 and so I sold some calls around that level for this week. I am hoping for it to settle back down to around $130 this week.
What duration do you normally use for earnings events? Weekly or the next monthly? Sometimes it seems like weekly options have very thin volume.
Charlie Munger, investing genius and Warren Buffett's right-hand man, dies at age 99
"We think so much alike that it's spooky," Warren Buffett once said of Munger.
Party on!
With Fed likely done hiking rates, Waller flags pivot ahead
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Federal Reserve policymakers look increasingly comfortable closing out the year with interest rates on hold and the clock ticking on the timing of the U.S. central bank's first cut as they try to engineer a "soft landing" for the economy.
"Inflation rates are moving along pretty much like I thought," Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish and influential voice at the central bank, told the American Enterprise Institute think tank on Tuesday.
"I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%," he said, and also "reasonably confident" of doing so without a sharp rise in the unemployment rate, now at 3.9%.
If the decline in inflation continues "for several more months ... three months, four months, five months ... we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower," he said. "It has nothing to do with trying to save the economy. It is consistent with every policy rule. There is no reason to say we will keep it really high."
With Fed likely done hiking rates, Waller flags pivot ahead
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Federal Reserve policymakers look increasingly comfortable closing out the year with interest rates on hold and the clock ticking on the timing of the U.S. central bank's first cut as they try to engineer a "soft landing" for the economy.
"Inflation rates are moving along pretty much like I thought," Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish and influential voice at the central bank, told the American Enterprise Institute think tank on Tuesday.
"I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%," he said, and also "reasonably confident" of doing so without a sharp rise in the unemployment rate, now at 3.9%.
If the decline in inflation continues "for several more months ... three months, four months, five months ... we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower," he said. "It has nothing to do with trying to save the economy. It is consistent with every policy rule. There is no reason to say we will keep it really high."
I like his quote on marriage.Charlie Munger, investing genius and Warren Buffett's right-hand man, dies at age 99
"We think so much alike that it's spooky," Warren Buffett once said of Munger.www.cnbc.com
The best way to find a good wife is to deserve one.
GM popping. Outlines the hit the new union contracts will entail. Plus buybacks and dividend hikes coming.
Granted it was way down, but it's so due for a run, it's so cheap.
Needs better execution in terms of getting EV's on the road.
I've been watching as it hovered around $28. But don't own. Recently purchased a little bit of Ford.
Granted it was way down, but it's so due for a run, it's so cheap.
Needs better execution in terms of getting EV's on the road.
I've been watching as it hovered around $28. But don't own. Recently purchased a little bit of Ford.
The worst bond market since the Civil War.
The bolts are popping Titanic style
"Nobody wants U.S. Treasury bonds.
Once a symbol of America’s economic might and accepted as a global coin of the realm, they have fallen badly out of favor, with serious consequences for taxpayers, investors, and financial markets.
Elementary economic forces — too much supply and not enough demand — have collided to create the worst stretch for U.S. government bonds since the Civil War. The government keeps borrowing to cover its budget deficits, while once-reliable buyers of that debt, both at home and abroad, have pulled back."
www.semafor.com
The bolts are popping Titanic style
"Nobody wants U.S. Treasury bonds.
Once a symbol of America’s economic might and accepted as a global coin of the realm, they have fallen badly out of favor, with serious consequences for taxpayers, investors, and financial markets.
Elementary economic forces — too much supply and not enough demand — have collided to create the worst stretch for U.S. government bonds since the Civil War. The government keeps borrowing to cover its budget deficits, while once-reliable buyers of that debt, both at home and abroad, have pulled back."
Nobody wants U.S. Treasury bonds | Semafor
The most tradable security in the world and a sign of the U.S.’s global economic might is badly out of favor, with serious consequences for taxpayers and financial markets.
www.semafor.com
I'd say this story is indicative of a top in yields........except that happened over a month ago.The worst bond market since the Civil War.
The bolts are popping Titanic style
"Nobody wants U.S. Treasury bonds.
Once a symbol of America’s economic might and accepted as a global coin of the realm, they have fallen badly out of favor, with serious consequences for taxpayers, investors, and financial markets.
Elementary economic forces — too much supply and not enough demand — have collided to create the worst stretch for U.S. government bonds since the Civil War. The government keeps borrowing to cover its budget deficits, while once-reliable buyers of that debt, both at home and abroad, have pulled back."
Nobody wants U.S. Treasury bonds | Semafor
The most tradable security in the world and a sign of the U.S.’s global economic might is badly out of favor, with serious consequences for taxpayers and financial markets.
If we see inflation below 3, the economy above water, and the fed cutting, that's a very good mix.
need to see a collapse in inflation and uptick in unemployment for them to cut anything beyond symbolic imho
The Fed is good with where real rates are right now. As CPI or PCE drifts down to 2%, they will cut to ensure real rates don't increase. Probably 100-150 bps in cuts over the next 12 to 18 months. Something like that.
Haven't we already seen this?
Not that I expect a big cut, not if the economy is doing OK.
I hope so as I'll benefit greatly but I can't call that yet.
Props to @rurahrah000, his PDD and CRM calls were both dingers.
I know SNOW has pushed up against $200 and failed. See if it can break out from here. I talked about buying under $150, saw it get below $140, still didn't buy it. Derp.
It was an incredible couple of days on top of an already amazing year thanks to PLTR, NVDA, MSFT.
Next up is PATH, but more risk and upside is limited … maybe ~$22.
Still looking to get into PLTR. Any levels you are looking for to add? Not sure if a pullback is likely or not.
LOL! I have been eyeing PATH as well. Just like PLTR, looking for a good level to start building from.
Just to add to the ideas, I mentioned this one a while back. CLRB. Long beaten down biotech that may have finally hit a winning home run. They did a financing deal with a venture company that I know which has a great track record of backing winners. One of my former executive colleague jumped to the company 2 months ago (haven't spoken to him, but he wouldn't go over there at this time without confidence). And finally, they announced that they will announce P3 results of their lead product at the January JP Morgan conference to "maximize impact". You never know about data, but CLRB wouldn't pre-announce an announcement without confidence of positive date. Micro small cap, so movement on positive news may be extreme.
10x move or bankruptcy! :)
You had a chance at PLTR earlier this month when it was at ~$15. My guess is that it goes to $24 from here, but could drop to $16-17. If you are looking to build a long term position then I would start here with 50% allocation and then add if it goes down to $16-17.
CLRB looks like it is in trouble. They have way too much cash burn and no revenue. They are going to need to raise money soon which will make the stock more volatile. Their cash burn is way worse than RIVN. BTW, RIVN needs to send its CEO to the same CEO school that Facebook sent Zuckerberg when they went public. Why would a RIVN raise billions of dollars in cash and then say that they don't need the money only to follow that up with an earnings report where they are burning tons of cash. That is the fastest way for the market to lose faith in the company.
Your CRSP vs BLUE trade is moving significantly in the favor of CRSP, although I agree that the catalyst for BLUE is coming soon, so I will reserve my final judgement until then.
I bought CRWD on 11/7. Up 21.6% since.
Bought LOGI on 11/1. UP 9.4% since.
On Monday bought NOW, WSM, INTC, SNPS & ANET.
Today bought FICO, PANW & XLG. SOLD MOH & TT.
Definitely a long-term position, so I will start buying PLTR tomorrow and add if/when there is a meaningful dip.
For all my talk about CRSP, I totally whiffed on it and missed the move. It started rallying sooner than expected. LOL! However, I bought into BLUE at $2.85'ish, so already up nicely.
As for CLRB, they have the money/financing in place. Their recent deal is for up to $100m pending the data release:
For small biotechs, it doesn't matter about revenue, it matters if they have a valuable asset other companies want. Their lead component is for a rare form a cancer. If the phase 3 data is positive, the asset becomes worth hundreds of millions of dollars and maybe more importantly, their phospholipid drug conjugate delivery platform becomes proven medical tech capable of developing more valuable therapies.
If their upcoming data is positive, they will be worth big money and get bought by an established company. If it isn't good, they will be out of business very quickly. Gotta love biotech!
Finally, yes, my faith in RIVN is being tested due to their cash burn. Getting close to sitting it out for a while until they get their spending in order.
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Ouch.... Always look in the bright side of life?
"A behavioral economist at the University of Bath in the U.K. has found evidence linking higher levels of unwarranted financial optimism with lower levels of cognitive ability...."
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-higher-financial-optimism-cognitive-ability.html
"A behavioral economist at the University of Bath in the U.K. has found evidence linking higher levels of unwarranted financial optimism with lower levels of cognitive ability...."
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-higher-financial-optimism-cognitive-ability.html
But crypto is not a Ponzi scheme…even though it really looks a lot like a Ponzi
scheme.😉
MSFT=Number go up!
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Inflation keeps going down and down:
Inflation as measured by personal spending increased in line with expectations in October, possibly giving the Federal Reserve more incentive to hold rates steady and perhaps start cutting in 2024, according to a data release Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Both numbers aligned with the Dow Jones consensus.
Headline inflation was flat on the month and at a 3% rate for the 12-month period, the release also showed.
www.cnbc.com
Inflation as measured by personal spending increased in line with expectations in October, possibly giving the Federal Reserve more incentive to hold rates steady and perhaps start cutting in 2024, according to a data release Thursday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Both numbers aligned with the Dow Jones consensus.
Headline inflation was flat on the month and at a 3% rate for the 12-month period, the release also showed.
Fed's favorite gauge shows inflation rose 0.2% in October and 3.5% from a year ago, as expected
The personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to increase 0.2% in October on a monthly basis and 3.5% from a year ago.
FYI - just bought some CRSP Jan call options, so I have a little skin in the game now. PDUFA is coming up on Dec 8. BLUE is on Dec 20.
