OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RU-05]

MS has been a laggard amongst financials, but has built a 3 year base. Though maybe one would argue the real base is 2 years old, as it hasn't really challenged the highs of Aug 21/Jan22 where it double topped around $101. Probably will have to deal with those levels before breaking out.

Rev growth not expected to be too significant but EPS growth looks much better.

3.7% div.

 

[RU-05]

Gerstner on half time talking SNOW.

Disapointed in how they transitioned to the new CEO, but actually really likes the new CEO who came over from Google.

Thinks guidance was low so as to not put the new CEO in a tough spot but expects the company to outperform.

Also says SNOW is well positioned for AI because workloads are going to the data, and SNOW has the data.


Still pricey though at 18x rev's.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Gerstner on half time talking SNOW.

Disapointed in how they transitioned to the new CEO, but actually really likes the new CEO who came over from Google.

Thinks guidance was low so as to not put the new CEO in a tough spot but expects the company to outperform.

Also says SNOW is well positioned for AI because workloads are going to the data, and SNOW has the data.


Still pricey though at 18x rev's.

I own SNOW at $146'ish and probably should add to the position. Very good summary on what I have read about SNOW as well. No idea why they didn't transition in a more thoughtful and gradual way. It felt like a rug pull, even though Slootman is staying on as Chair of the Board.

Totally agreed on guidance. Complete sandbagging for the new CEO.

 

[BillyC80]

I actually lost money on that trade somehow.

But props to a great recommendation.

Are you staying in? This sounds to me like it's ready for a serious give back. What's the catalyst moving fwd?

Sorry to hear you lost money on this. At the time I mentioned Ocugen on this board, just a few months ago, it was selling at $0.56 per share. As I write this, it is at $1.76 per share.

I’m definitely staying in. I bought my first 300 shares 3 years ago at $10 per share, and kept buying more as the price kept dropping, all the way down to $0.35 per share, because I believe in the company and the products they’re developing.

Today I have 15,000 shares at 1.69 average. I won’t sell any until it hits almost $5 per share, which I believe will happen this year. Even then I will keep 80% of my holdings longer term.

The catalysts going forward, now that they’ve achieved NASDAQ compliance, include a forthcoming partnership with a big pharma company (rumored to be JnJ but that’s just random speculation because both companies are developing ocular degeneration treatments).

They are starting phase 3 trials next month for one of their ocular treatments and they have started building a factory to manufacture their knee cartilage product.

They also have a nasal delivery vaccine in development.

Please note that I am only sharing what I know and why I’ve been accumulating shares of this stock. None of what I’m saying is intended to be advice or even a recommendation.

Hope this helps, good luck.

 

[T2Kplus20]

MS has been a laggard amongst financials, but has built a 3 year base. Though maybe one would argue the real base is 2 years old, as it hasn't really challenged the highs of Aug 21/Jan22 where it double topped around $101. Probably will have to deal with those levels before breaking out.

Rev growth not expected to be too significant but EPS growth looks much better.

3.7% div.

Epic value rally today. Great to see the market strength continue to broaden. MS and financials should do well in such an environment.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Sorry to hear you lost money on this. At the time I mentioned Ocugen on this board, just a few months ago, it was selling at $0.56 per share. As I write this, it is at $1.76 per share.

I’m definitely staying in. I bought my first 300 shares 3 years ago at $10 per share, and kept buying more as the price kept dropping, all the way down to $0.35 per share, because I believe in the company and the products they’re developing.

Today I have 15,000 shares at 1.69 average. I won’t sell any until it hits almost $5 per share, which I believe will happen this year. Even then I will keep 80% of my holdings longer term.

The catalysts going forward, now that they’ve achieved NASDAQ compliance, include a forthcoming partnership with a big pharma company (rumored to be JnJ but that’s just random speculation because both companies are developing ocular degeneration treatments).

They are starting phase 3 trials next month for one of their ocular treatments and they have started building a factory to manufacture their knee cartilage product.

They also have a nasal delivery vaccine in development.

Please note that I am only sharing what I know and why I’ve been accumulating shares of this stock. None of what I’m saying is intended to be advice or even a recommendation.

Hope this helps, good luck.

Sadly, I haven't pulled the trigger on this one yet, but it's on my watchlist to add to my small-cap biotech custom basket. With only a market cap of $440m, plenty of room to growth if one of their products hit.

I'll dive into their IR materials again and figure out the calendar ahead.

And congrats on your conviction! Definitely paying off.

 

[RU-05]

Sorry to hear you lost money on this. At the time I mentioned Ocugen on this board, just a few months ago, it was selling at $0.56 per share. As I write this, it is at $1.76 per share.

I’m definitely staying in. I bought my first 300 shares 3 years ago at $10 per share, and kept buying more as the price kept dropping, all the way down to $0.35 per share, because I believe in the company and the products they’re developing.

Today I have 15,000 shares at 1.69 average. I won’t sell any until it hits almost $5 per share, which I believe will happen this year. Even then I will keep 80% of my holdings longer term.

The catalysts going forward, now that they’ve achieved NASDAQ compliance, include a H

Ha, thanks for the disclaimer, but don't think I was laying my bad trade at your feet.

 

[RU-05]

Epic value rally today. Great to see the market strength continue to broaden. MS and financials should do well in such an environment.

Really strong late in the day. Not just value either as the Nasdaq was down early in the day, but finished a half a percentage higher.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Really strong late in the day. Not just value either as the Nasdaq was down early in the day, but finished a half a percentage higher.

Another new ATH for the S&P 500. Dow knocking on the 40k door! Lots of money to be made. :)

 

[rutgersguy1]

A few names discussed here before.

BDX has been in a trading range last handful of months from low 230s to mid 240s where there seems to be moving avg resistance that has rejected it a few times.

UNH still not showing much momentum to push further forward after its bounce. Just read they paid 3B to providers related to the cyberattacks. Think that could be an overhang for awhile and not sure they're near out of the woods yet. DOJ and weight loss drugs are issues also.

Also wondering about other META/GE turnaround possibilities.

MMM has settled their earplug lawsuits and some of their forever chemical lawsuits. I think there are still some clouds above with European countries and here with regards to the forever chemicals. They have a spinoff of their healthcare unit coming up and wonder if that along with the lawsuit settlements (including future settlements) might affect the dividend which has been as sacrosanct as you get (like 50-60 years). New CEO coming on board too. It has been showing some life as of late but looks like it is approaching some resistance.

BA is a big mess right now but it's essentially 1 of 2 airplane manufacturers. Is anyone going to buy from the Chinese? Not likely. It might be a slog like GE was but if they hire a good CEO (wouldn't feel confident in the Spirit CEO or anyone from within) it has the potential for a good turnaround. Regulators and everyone has bullseye painted on them right now. I think there could be some more downside (maybe to the 150s) but if there is confidence in the new CEO, it might mark the start of a turnaround down the line.

Between the 2, I like BA better because that seems like a defined problem that can be fixed internally by putting the right processes in place but lawsuit liability is amorphous and unknown.

 

[RU-05]

A few names discussed here before.

BDX has been in a trading range last handful of months from low 230s to mid 240s where there seems to be moving avg resistance that has rejected it a few times.

UNH still not showing much momentum to push further forward after its bounce. Just read they paid 3B to providers related to the cyberattacks. Think that could be an overhang for awhile and not sure they're near out of the woods yet. DOJ and weight loss drugs are issues also.

Also wondering about other META/GE turnaround possibilities.

MMM has settled their earplug lawsuits and some of their forever chemical lawsuits. I think there are still some clouds above with European countries and here with regards to the forever chemicals. They have a spinoff of their healthcare unit coming up and wonder if that along with the lawsuit settlements (including future settlements) might affect the dividend which has been as sacrosanct as you get (like 50-60 years). New CEO coming on board too. It has been showing some life as of late but looks like it is approaching some resistance.

BA is a big mess right now but it's essentially 1 of 2 airplane manufacturers. Is anyone going to buy from the Chinese? Not likely. It might be a slog like GE was but if they hire a good CEO (wouldn't feel confident in the Spirit CEO or anyone from within) it has the potential for a good turnaround. Regulators and everyone has bullseye painted on them right now. I think there could be some more downside (maybe to the 150s) but if there is confidence in the new CEO, it might mark the start of a turnaround down the line.

Between the 2, I like BA better because that seems like a defined problem that can be fixed internally by putting the right processes in place but lawsuit liability is amorphous and unknown.

Fingers crossed(as a member of the general public, as I don't even own the stock) that BA is done with this stretch of bad news. If so then this could be a good buy point. Stock has hung in fairly well even in the face of some of the more recent bad news.

Stephanie Link has been buying MMM. Some may giggle at me referencing CNBC heads, and everyone should do their own homework, but she is a big fundamental and turnaround story investor, she is not there for entertainment purposes. She compared it to the GE story, which she was also in on.

 

[RU-05]

Bought SNOW and GLOB. Neither stock looks good, but do seem to be at support levels.

Good growth for each, with GLOB looking fairly cheap at 4.2x price to revs.

 

[RU-05]

Russell outperforming today.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Fingers crossed(as a member of the general public, as I don't even own the stock) that BA is done with this stretch of bad news. If so then this could be a good but point. Stock has hung in fairly well even in the face of some of the more recent bad news.

Stephanie Link has been buying MMM. Some may giggle at me referencing CNBC heads, and everyone should do their own homework, but she is a big fundamental and turnaround story investor, she is not there for entertainment purposes. She compared it to the GE story, which she was also in on.

She was in on META too IIRC. Even though other big tech had huge turnarounds too, I kind of put META's turnaround in a class of its own. Back then it was TikTok is eating its lunch and it's not growing anymore so it kind of a fundamental shot at the business as opposed to other big tech at the time. They reduced costs and reels is doing better and TikTok is under more government scrutiny. So a good part of that were things that could be fixed internally. GE was somewhat like that too after they sold off enough pieces to get out of the financial hell hole they were put in.

BA seems like that to me. It's a problem that you can fix internally. MMM is more external imo because of the lawsuits. 16-18B has been settled (earplugs & forever chemicals) but I've seen some think a further 30B could be overhanging because of other forever chemical suits. It reminds me of the tobacco companies back decades ago. Until you get those lawsuit clouds out of the way, it's hard to figure out the upside. A one time unthinkable cutting of the divy isn't even out of the question. Headline risk is always there too.

Mind you that's probably true for BA too, another plane has an issue and boom stock takes a hit. That reminds me of CMG when they had those food illness issues some years ago. Another issue with a location and boom stock takes a hit. But they figured out their processes and got in under control and then took off (pun intended). I feel like BA could do that too. It turned around after actual Max crashes so I think it can turnaround is possible after this too but it might be a slog like GE was. I wouldn't rule out more downside even though it has held up decently as you said.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Bought SNOW and GLOB. Neither stock looks good, but do seem to be at support levels.

Good growth for each, with GLOB looking fairly cheap at 4.2x price to revs.

Not stocks for me. I agree with the premise though of if you think a stock is fundamentally sound but it doesn't look good currently and if it's at support, it could be a spot to step in and start a position etc..

 

[rutgersguy1]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/28/xiaomi-releases-electric-car-4k-cheaper-than-teslas-model-3-as-price-wars-heat-up.html

Home Depot is acquiring specialty distributor SRS for $18.25 billion in huge bet on growing pro sales

Home Depot is making the largest acquisition in its history as its sales growth stagnates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[rutgersguy1]

Easy come easy go.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/28/reddit-shares-on-a-two-day-tumble-after-post-ipo-high.html

 

[T2Kplus20]

Easy come easy go.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/28/reddit-shares-on-a-two-day-tumble-after-post-ipo-high.html

Missed the boat on buying those puts. Was in transit coming home from vacation. The time to buy was at $70. Oh well.....

 

[T2Kplus20]

Not stocks for me. I agree with the premise though of if you think a stock is fundamentally sound but it doesn't look good currently and if it's at support, it could be a spot to step in and start a position etc..

SNOW is set-up perfectly to rally back to $220'ish. Beats low expectations, the new CEO comes out firing on AI activities/revenue. Kaboom! SNOW is flying again.

 

[T2Kplus20]

She was in on META too IIRC. Even though other big tech had huge turnarounds too, I kind of put META's turnaround in a class of its own. Back then it was TikTok is eating its lunch and it's not growing anymore so it kind of a fundamental shot at the business as opposed to other big tech at the time. They reduced costs and reels is doing better and TikTok is under more government scrutiny. So a good part of that were things that could be fixed internally. GE was somewhat like that too after they sold off enough pieces to get out of the financial hell hole they were put in.

BA seems like that to me. It's a problem that you can fix internally. MMM is more external imo because of the lawsuits. 16-18B has been settled (earplugs & forever chemicals) but I've seen some think a further 30B could be overhanging because of other forever chemical suits. It reminds me of the tobacco companies back decades ago. Until you get those lawsuit clouds out of the way, it's hard to figure out the upside. A one time unthinkable cutting of the divy isn't even out of the question. Headline risk is always there too.

Mind you that's probably true for BA too, another plane has an issue and boom stock takes a hit. That reminds me of CMG when they had those food illness issues some years ago. Another issue with a location and boom stock takes a hit. But they figured out their processes and got in under control and then took off (pun intended). I feel like BA could do that too. It turned around after actual Max crashes so I think it can turnaround is possible after this too but it might be a slog like GE was. I wouldn't rule out more downside even though it has held up decently as you said.

BA is like my DIS play (which I bought under $80.....bragging). The company isn't going anywhere and it is set-up for that "come back" story the financial media loves so much. Remember, the stock market is all about expectations. And right now, the BA bar is set very, very low. Just like DIS was.

 

[Postman_1]

For those who like historical trends this chart is interesting. Expect a slow Q2 then a stronger finish if history repeats itself. Lets hope!

 

[T2Kplus20]

For those who like historical trends this chart is interesting. Expect a slow Q2 then a stronger finish if history repeats itself. Lets hope!

View embedded media

Buy, buy, buy! :)

 

[Knight Owl]

Scott Baio rumored to potentially be in running to be new FTC chair. IYKYK

 

[ashokan]

AT&T is tire fire and people should get off any services.

AT&T notifies users of data breach and resets millions of passcodes

AT&T says it has begun notifying millions of customers about the theft of personal data, including Social Security numbers, recently discovered online.

apnews.com

Weeks ago

AT&T says the outage to its US cellphone network was not caused by a cyberattack

AT&T said its wireless network was back after an outage knocked out cellphone service for its users across the U.S. for hours.

apnews.com

Paramount Global’s Debt Rating Downgraded to Junk by S&P

Paramount Global's debt rating was cut to junk status by credit-rating agency S&P Global.

variety.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

Two interesting charts:

Never saw market performance like this, great visual!




Also, anyone invested in booze? :)

 

[jtung230]

Two interesting charts:

Never saw market performance like this, great visual!




Also, anyone invested in booze? :)

I told you about watches. Still much to learn grasshopper 😀. Tax advantage added makes it no brainer.

ETA wine is a terrible investment. Literally pissed away 😀

 

[RU-05]

Two interesting charts:

Never saw market performance like this, great visual!




Also, anyone invested in booze? :)

Tesla’s chart is terrible. At some point it will turn i guess. But it is showing no signs of it.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Tesla’s chart is terrible. At some point it will turn i guess. But it is showing no signs of it.

I am still very interested in leap calls for RIVN or TSLA since I do think the EV sentiment cycle will change over the next 2 years or so. Just no idea on when to pull the trigger on such calls. LOL! I assume they both have more room to go before bottoming.

 

[RU-05]

So DJT had $4mil in rev last year. Yet it had a $8B market cap coming in to today.

Down 22% last I checked.

 

[jtung230]

I am still very interested in leap calls for RIVN or TSLA since I do think the EV sentiment cycle will change over the next 2 years or so. Just no idea on when to pull the trigger on such calls. LOL! I assume they both have more room to go before bottoming.

Save your money. If it’s 2 years away, both Resla and Rivian looses 1st mover advantage. Competition is everywhere already and they can all scale in 2 years.

 

[T2Kplus20]

So DJT had $4mil in rev last year. Yet it had a $8B market cap coming in to today.

Down 22% last I checked.

Puts? :)

 

[RU-05]

Puts? :)

Obviously wish i knew about that multiple prior to today’s crash but even at an $800m market cap this would have been a 200x price to revs. Its still about $6b.

And oh yeah it lost $54 mil on that $4mil in revs.

Only concern is this is pure meme at this point. Could run to $200 before the inevitable crash.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Obviously wish i knew about that multiple prior to today’s crash but even at an $800m market cap this would have been a 200x price to revs. Its still about $6b.

And oh yeah it lost $54 mil on that $4mil in revs.

Only concern is this is pure meme at this point. Could run to $200 before the inevitable crash.

That's why it's too dangerous to short. You never know about meme stocks. It may bounce 20% tomorrow. Just looked, vol is sky high so puts are very expensive.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Modest dip with COST lately (about 10% off ATH). Time to buy? Continued speculation that Costco will increase annual dues soon, which will juice earnings.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

That's why it's too dangerous to short. You never know about meme stocks. It may bounce 20% tomorrow. Just looked, vol is sky high so puts are very expensive.

They talk about it at the 16:41 mark, pretty interesting points. Its short float and meme attraction and possibility of a squeeze are mentioned. Chamath compared it to the David Bowie Bonds of 1997, something I’d never heard of which I found very interesting. Basically saying he’s made his likeness into a stock at this point.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

WOLF founded at NC State is gaining traction of late, as is the Wolfpack's men's and women's BB teams, both in the Final Four. LOL. Go Pack! Go Wolfspeed!

 

[T2Kplus20]

WOLF founded at NC State is gaining traction of late, as is the Wolfpack's men's and women's BB teams, both in the Final Four. LOL. Go Pack! Go Wolfspeed!

As mentioned before, got a small position in WOLF in the mid-25's. Haven't added to it yet, but watching closely. :)

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

For long term investors, not short term gamblers:

After experiencing Tesla's latest version of full self driving, I have no doubt they will be first to reach autonomous driving. I have no predictions for rollout of robotaxi or regulatory approval, but they will be first.

 

[T2Kplus20]

For long term investors, not short term gamblers:

After experiencing Tesla's latest version of full self driving, I have no doubt they will be first to reach autonomous driving. I have no predictions for rollout of robotaxi or regulatory approval, but they will be first.

Hands on feedback is valuable, thanks for posting! I own TSLA in various ways, including in my personal account via the FS Insights stock list. Happy to add! :)

 

[T2Kplus20]

Save your money. If it’s 2 years away, both Resla and Rivian looses 1st mover advantage. Competition is everywhere already and they can all scale in 2 years.

I still think the R2 models can be winners.....if RIVN doesn't run out of money first. LOL!