OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

Another shout-out for the latest FSD version:

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Tesla is between 2 growth waves for vehicle sales. If you're expecting significant growth in EV sales over the next 12-18 months, you're not going to find it. I expect Tesla to surpass 2023 deliveries this year, but not by much. Cybertruck and new Model 3 will provide moderate growth.

The next generation vehicle (~$25k) will be the next major leap in vehicle sales growth. Meaningful production begins 2H 2025. First in Austin, then Mexico. This vehicle represents a complete redesign of how vehicles are produced. The linear production line had a great 100 year run. It will soon be obsolete. 5 million units from a single factory is the goal. Many scoffed at Elon's prediction of 20 million units/year by 2030. This next generation production system is how they get there.

Tesla energy will be a short term catalyst over the next 2 years as the production of their energy storage products is really starting to ramp up. The global demand for energy storage products is quasi infinite. Expect additional Megapack factory announcements going forward.

The AI story is truly the golden goose. The earnings potential of full self driving & the Optimus humanoid robot cannot be quantified.

Last thing I'll say: Don't bet against Elon. Despite what you might think about his politics, he's is a generational entrepreneur and technologist. He attracts the best and brightest engineers on earth and has a history of accomplishing the impossible.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

I don’t follow the auto industry that closely but I didn’t think Toyota went all in on EVs like some others. If anything, I think they’ve been kind of cautious similar to Fox not cranking out a streaming service when all the other media companies were cranking them out. It turned out to be a good decision for Fox as everyone else lost tons of money on their streaming services. I think Toyota has been mostly focused on hybrids for now with some research on faster charging batteries.

Toyota isn't biding their time. Their initial EV releases were a disaster. As a result, they're doing everything in their power to convince the public that hybrids are the future.

 

[rurahrah000]

This maybe the first year that Tesla has lower sales than previous year and without any other significant catalyst, the stock will go even lower.

They sold 500k more cars in 2023 vs 2022. I expect that number to increase but at a slower rate. Tesla is 100% focus on AI now because the car business doesn’t justify the multiple

Live and learn, my friend. There was a reason I sold a huge chunk of my TSLA shares. Remember "When you go away from woke, you really go broke". Trailer trash aren't buying TSLA. Unless they can get FSD really working well, they might be in even more trouble.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Live and learn, my friend. There was a reason I sold a huge chunk of my TSLA shares. Remember "When you go away from woke, you really go broke". Trailer trash aren't buying TSLA. Unless they can get FSD really working well, they might be in even more trouble.

So did Rivian, Fisker, Ford, GM, et al also go away from woke? Because they all are suffering from the current EV bear market.

 

[rurahrah000]

This pullback is really hurting the AI software companies. Start planning your future purchases now... I am looking at better levels on SOUN, PLTR, BBAI, CXAI to name a few. Some of these names won't work out, but hopefully a few of these will be home runs.

 

[rurahrah000]

So did Rivian, Fisker, Ford, GM, et al also go away from woke? Because they all are suffering from the current EV bear market.

Those companies have other issues. No one has quite the market cap that TSLA does. They also don't take a dump on their customers quite the way Elon does.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Those companies have other issues. No one has quite the market cap that TSLA does. They also don't take a dump on their customers quite the way Elon does.

Elon going Elon is a problem. Without their former CFO, the past 2 earning calls have been absolute train wrecks. This has to change.

 

[T2Kplus20]

This pullback is really hurting the AI software companies. Start planning your future purchases now... I am looking at better levels on SOUN, PLTR, BBAI, CXAI to name a few. Some of these names won't work out, but hopefully a few of these will be home runs.

CXAI? That's interesting, microcap company. Need to read up on them. What are you targeting for PLTR? I started a position at $18'ish, but I need to add since it's very small.

And how about PATH?

 

[jtung230]

Tesla is between 2 growth waves for vehicle sales. If you're expecting significant growth in EV sales over the next 12-18 months, you're not going to find it. I expect Tesla to surpass 2023 deliveries this year, but not by much. Cybertruck and new Model 3 will provide moderate growth.

The next generation vehicle (~$25k) will be the next major leap in vehicle sales growth. Meaningful production begins 2H 2025. First in Austin, then Mexico. This vehicle represents a complete redesign of how vehicles are produced. The linear production line had a great 100 year run. It will soon be obsolete. 5 million units from a single factory is the goal. Many scoffed at Elon's prediction of 20 million units/year by 2030. This next generation production system is how they get there.

Tesla energy will be a short term catalyst over the next 2 years as the production of their energy storage products is really starting to ramp up. The global demand for energy storage products is quasi infinite. Expect additional Megapack factory announcements going forward.

The AI story is truly the golden goose. The earnings potential of full self driving & the Optimus humanoid robot cannot be quantified.

Last thing I'll say: Don't bet against Elon. Despite what you might think about his politics, he's is a generational entrepreneur and technologist. He attracts the best and brightest engineers on earth and has a history of accomplishing the impossible.

How does the Cybertruck fit here?

 

[RU-05]

Elon weighs in on Disney proxy battle.

Why? Who knows.

Guy really needs to focus.

 

[RU-05]

Ford deliveries up 6.8% in the US.

EV sales up 86%. Off a low base.

Hybrid sales up 42%.

For all manufacturers Hybrids up 45% yoy. EV up 3%.

 

[RU-05]

Rolled my first covered calls with a "Net Credit" price type. Bought back the April's, sold the May's. Received an additional 1.5% premium.

I originally Sold upside calls on NRG a month or so ago, just broke into the money this morning. I'm up 100% on the position, in hindsight I should have just let it run. Seems to be no sign of slowing down, selling here is the opposite of buying a falling knife. This is one of those positions we talked about a couple months back, that was a dog, until it wasn't, been on a mega run the last 15 months or so. But whatever.

In the meantime I'll see how much I can squeeze out of this via calls.

 

[RU-05]

I don’t follow the auto industry that closely but I didn’t think Toyota went all in on EVs like some others. If anything, I think they’ve been kind of cautious similar to Fox not cranking out a streaming service when all the other media companies were cranking them out. It turned out to be a good decision for Fox as everyone else lost tons of money on their streaming services. I think Toyota has been mostly focused on hybrids for now with some research on faster charging batteries.

Ya they've been slow to go full in, which for awhile looked like a bad call, but now looks pretty smart.

There was recent news about a new battery pack assembly as well as a 3 row SUV in their Kentucky plant. Their NC plant will provide the battery cells. Truck due out in 2025.

Since 2021 Toyota has spent/will spend $17B in EV investments.

Toyota investing $1.3B for EV production in Kentucky

The automaker will install a battery pack assembly line at the Kentucky plant and build a new three-row electric SUV for the U.S. market starting in 2025.

www.automotivedive.com

 

[rutgersguy1]

Ya they've been slow to go full in, which for awhile looked like a bad call, but now looks pretty smart.

There was recent news about a new battery pack assembly as well as a 3 row SUV in their Kentucky plant. Their NC plant will provide the battery cells. Truck due out in 2025.

Since 2021 Toyota has spent/will spend $17B in EV investments.

Toyota investing $1.3B for EV production in Kentucky

The automaker will install a battery pack assembly line at the Kentucky plant and build a new three-row electric SUV for the U.S. market starting in 2025.

www.automotivedive.com

They and others are doing testing/research on solid state batteries. Much faster charging time and longer range which can help more adoption of EVs but that still sounds quite a few years out just to bring to market and then of course discovering problems with that technology as it rolls out becomes more ubiquitous. That's why I say just in general that EVs and all that comes with it isn't mature enough yet imo.

 

[RU-05]

Atlanta Fed Chair Bostic predicts one cut this year, which will come in Q4.

Thinks economy, and risk of accelerating inflation, is too strong to cut now.

Just one opinion though, and it does sound like he is the most hawkish of the group. But Atlanta Fed was the first to predict strong 2023 4Q GDP which proved to be correct.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Atlanta Fed Chair Bostic predicts one cut this year, which will come in Q4.

Thinks economy, and risk of accelerating inflation, is too strong to cut now.

Just one opinion though, and it does sound like he is the most hawkish of the group. But Atlanta Fed was the first to predict strong 2023 4Q GDP which proved to be correct.

I kind of agree with him if things stay as they are and wasn't really on board with market expectations and then later Powell mentioning 3 cuts. I think there would have to be a downturn in the economy to get that many cuts but we'll see.

 

[T2Kplus20]

They and others are doing testing/research on solid state batteries. Much faster charging time and longer range which can help more adoption of EVs but that still sounds quite a few years out just to bring to market and then of course discovering problems with that technology as it rolls out becomes more ubiquitous. That's why I say just in general that EVs and all that comes with it isn't mature enough yet imo.

It's very true that battery tech is not good enough for more customers yet. This is the biggest rate limiting step for adoption.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Atlanta Fed Chair Bostic predicts one cut this year, which will come in Q4.

Thinks economy, and risk of accelerating inflation, is too strong to cut now.

Just one opinion though, and it does sound like he is the most hawkish of the group. But Atlanta Fed was the first to predict strong 2023 4Q GDP which proved to be correct.

Bostic is a fringe member, so his opinion is unimportant.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I kind of agree with him if things stay as they are and wasn't really on board with market expectations and then later Powell mentioning 3 cuts. I think there would have to be a downturn in the economy to get that many cuts but we'll see.

Powell wants to cut and knows he needs to do so well before the signs of a downturn.....or it will be too late (and Powell will become the Fed Chair that damaged a good economy for no reason).

Need to get down to neutral.

 

[RU-05]

Bostic is a fringe member, so his opinion is unimportant.

Not sure why he would be considered a fringe member.

He is just one opinion, but as noted, Atlanta was the first to say 2023 4Q GDP was going to be much stronger then expected, and they were right.

 

[RU-05]

Powell wants to cut and knows he needs to do so well before the signs of a downturn.....or it will be too late (and Powell will become the Fed Chair that damaged a good economy for no reason).

Need to get down to neutral.

This concern is balanced against fears of re accelerating inflation.

 

[RUDead]

Powell wants to cut and knows he needs to do so well before the signs of a downturn.....or it will be too late (and Powell will become the Fed Chair that damaged a good economy for no reason).

Need to get down to neutral.

Why does he "want" to cut?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Why does he "want" to cut?

Because he doesn't want to tank the economy and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. He would become the Fed Chair that was too late in battling inflation and then raised rates for too long and caused a recession.

Not good! LOL.

 

[RUDead]

Because he doesn't want to tank the economy and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. He would become the Fed Chair that was too late in battling inflation and then raised rates for too long and caused a recession.

Not good! LOL.

You're missing the inflation story again. It's bounced off the lows and is rising. Global commodity markets are up huge in 2024.

 

[rutgersguy1]

From the article:

Cohen also expressed general confidence in the stock market. He said the current market rally is not a bubble like 1999′s dot-com boom and is instead due in part to investors pricing in future growth from artificial intelligence.

Cohen said that AI is a “really durable theme” that will make an impact on a wide variety of companies.

“If you’re a company and you’re not thinking about this, you’re going to wake up one day and go ‘we’re in trouble,’” Cohen said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/steve-cohen-says-the-fed-may-have-a-hard-time-getting-inflation-down-to-its-goal.html

He doesn't think it's an AI bubble or long in the tooth. I've mentioned this above when some were thinking AI was bubbly cause it's mentioned everywhere all the time but thought it was early innings still. I don't know about early innings now with regards to AI but I think there's still quite a bit of runway left. Eventually, there will be a time where it runs its course just like the hype over cloud at one time and other things in history as well but we're not near there yet imo.

He said some of the big winners of AI aren't even known yet. That's something I've mentioned above too. It's unfortunate for us Joe Retails. I've said I see it like small biotech names. If a guy like him can't know the future winners no way in hell the little guy can without some dumb luck or inside info. From my perspective as Joe Retail, I just stick with the typical big tech names and let them do their thing of either creating the tech or swallow it up. I think they're all good but MSFT is the one I have a particular affinity for with regards to taking advantage of AI.

Cohen did mention he doesn't disagree with the market expectations of 3 cuts this year which I'm still skeptical of without a slowdown. I think Josh Brown made a good point on halftime. He said even if it's 1 cut, just starting the cycle will be taken as a positive.

 

[T2Kplus20]

You're missing the inflation story again. It's bounced off the lows and is rising. Global commodity markets are up huge in 2024.

No it's not. PCE core (which is what the Fed cares about) is YoY 2.8% and trending downwards. PCE headline is YoY 2.4%. And both are below 2% 6mo over 6mo.

Life is good.

 

[T2Kplus20]

From the article:

Cohen also expressed general confidence in the stock market. He said the current market rally is not a bubble like 1999′s dot-com boom and is instead due in part to investors pricing in future growth from artificial intelligence.

Cohen said that AI is a “really durable theme” that will make an impact on a wide variety of companies.

“If you’re a company and you’re not thinking about this, you’re going to wake up one day and go ‘we’re in trouble,’” Cohen said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/steve-cohen-says-the-fed-may-have-a-hard-time-getting-inflation-down-to-its-goal.html

He doesn't think it's an AI bubble or long in the tooth. I've mentioned this above when some were thinking AI was bubbly cause it's mentioned everywhere all the time but thought it was early innings still. I don't know about early innings now with regards to AI but I think there's still quite a bit of runway left. Eventually, there will be a time where it runs its course just like the hype over cloud at one time and other things in history as well but we're not near there yet imo.

He said some of the big winners of AI aren't even known yet. That's something I've mentioned above too. It's unfortunate for us Joe Retails. I've said I see it like small biotech names. If a guy like him can't know the future winners no way in hell the little guy can without some dumb luck or inside info. From my perspective as Joe Retail, I just stick with the typical big tech names and let them do their thing of either creating the tech or swallow it up. I think they're all good but MSFT is the one I have a particular affinity for with regards to taking advantage of AI.

Cohen did mention he doesn't disagree with the market expectations of 3 cuts this year which I'm still skeptical of without a slowdown. I think Josh Brown made a good point on halftime. He said even if it's 1 cut, just starting the cycle will be taken as a positive.

The most important change was ending the rate hiking cycle. That's why markets have rallied so much. Rates cuts are good news and the reason for delaying some cuts is also good news. As I mentioned before, life is good.

Watching the Steve Cohen interview now, very interesting. He's definitely bullish.

 

[rutgersguy1]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/02/intel-shares-fall-after-company-reveals-7-billion-operating-loss-in-foundry-business.html

INTC down 7.5% on the 7B loss news. Was also brought up at halftime and Josh Brown brought up 38 as a support level. Looking at the chart, I see that as well.

I've been thinking about INTC as very long term play because of the foundries and the importantce of domestic production of chips. It feels like a "dead money until it isn't" kind of thing in my mind. They say they expect losses to peak midway through 2024 and then break even midway between now and 2030. Management seems mediocre to me so can they execute and hit their projections.

I feel like it can be an accumulation stock for a payoff in the 2030s which is obviously a while away. It's just a matter of where and when to step in and then kind of write it off until the hopefully a payoff way down the line. Somewhat similar to GE but I liked Culp, I'm indifferent about Gelsinger. INTC for quite some time has been a company that's one step forward and one or two steps backs and I can't say I've seen any change in that MO.

 

[T2Kplus20]

INTC down 7.5% on the 7B loss news. Was also brought up at halftime and Josh Brown brought up 38 as a support level. Looking at the chart, I see that as well.

I've been thinking about INTC as very long term play because of the foundries and the importantce of domestic production of chips. It feels like a "dead money until it isn't" kind of thing in my mind. They say they expect losses to peak midway through 2024 and then break even midway between now and 2030. Management seems mediocre to me so can they execute and hit their projections.

I feel like it can be an accumulation stock for a payoff in the 2030s which is obviously a while away. It's just a matter of where and when to step in and then kind of write it off until the hopefully a payoff way down the line. Somewhat similar to GE but I liked Culp, I'm indifferent about Gelsinger. INTC for quite some time has been a company that's one step forward and one or two steps backs and I can't say I've seen any change in that MO.

Own INTC just below $30. It wasn't my buy. Our Roth IRAs are managed and our FA recommended the purchase. Overall still positive, but the past few months have been yikes.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Own INTC just below $30. It wasn't my buy. Our Roth IRAs are managed and our FA recommended the purchase. Overall still positive, but the past few months have been yikes.

It's currently at the 200DMA. If that doesn't hold then 38 is the next area of support.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

How does the Cybertruck fit here?

200-250k/year once fully ramped.
Maybe more if exports become a thing.
CT doesn't really move the needle on the books, but it's great advertising.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

Those companies have other issues. No one has quite the market cap that TSLA does. They also don't take a dump on their customers quite the way Elon does.

Tesla has the highest customer loyalty in the auto business.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

They and others are doing testing/research on solid state batteries. Much faster charging time and longer range which can help more adoption of EVs but that still sounds quite a few years out just to bring to market and then of course discovering problems with that technology as it rolls out becomes more ubiquitous. That's why I say just in general that EVs and all that comes with it isn't mature enough yet imo.

It boggles my mind that there's still so much hype around solid state after so many big promises and flops.

Toyota is literally recycling press releases from 10 years ago re solid state batteries.

We don't even need them. Massive scale and cost are priority #1.

Look at what is actually happening in the EV business. We aren't moving to higher energy density batteries for most use cases, but lower energy density batteries that are cheaper.

 

[rutgersguy1]

It boggles my mind that there's still so much hype around solid state after so many big promises and flops.

Toyota is literally recycling press releases from 10 years ago re solid state batteries.

We don't even need them. Massive scale and cost are priority #1.

Look at what is actually happening in the EV business. We aren't moving to higher energy density batteries for most use cases, but lower energy density batteries that are cheaper.

If things like faster charging and longer range are pie in the sky then you'll never get car buyers like me to adopt an EV. I don't think I'm unique in that respect either.

Also Toyota is doing just fine as an auto company looking at their share price and sales mentioned in the article above.

 

[T2Kplus20]

It boggles my mind that there's still so much hype around solid state after so many big promises and flops.

Toyota is literally recycling press releases from 10 years ago re solid state batteries.

We don't even need them. Massive scale and cost are priority #1.

Look at what is actually happening in the EV business. We aren't moving to higher energy density batteries for most use cases, but lower energy density batteries that are cheaper.

Where do you think the first legit solid-state battery comes from - QS, Toyota, or someone else?

 

[rutgersguy1]

PVH news yesterday and hit to apparel companies and beauty now with Ulta. Discretionary spending taking a hit.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/ulta-shares-fall-as-ceo-warns-beauty-demand-is-slowing.html

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

Where do you think the first legit solid-state battery comes from - QS, Toyota, or someone else?

It won't be Toyota and they won't be for EVs. Guys, seriously , it's not happening. Decades of hype and no one is remotely close to volume production. It's the nuclear fusion of batteries.

Auto makers have learned their lesson with the 6 figure EVs (cough, cough...Lucid) Costs need to come down, not up, and all signs are pointing to exactly that. LFP batteries (iron cathode) are the future. Cheap & high production volume. LFPs represent the core competency of the world's largest battery suppliers and they're actively growing supply.

Electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOLs) are the only applications that we might see solid state batteries this decade. Small unit #s, very high cost, toys for the ultra wealthy , but even that is a stretch IMO.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

If things like faster charging and longer range are pie in the sky then you'll never get car buyers like me to adopt an EV. I don't think I'm unique in that respect either.

Also Toyota is doing just fine as an auto company looking at their share price and sales mentioned in the article above.

If the EV mandates for China, Europe, and the US are legit, Toyota will be closed off to roughly 1/2 the global car market in less than 10 years.

If you've been paying attention recently, you know the difficulty of positive cash flow, volume production of EVs. Toyota is still at the base of a collosal mountain.

 

[rutgersguy1]

If the EV mandates for China, Europe, and the US are legit, Toyota will be closed off to roughly 1/2 the global car market in less than 10 years.

If you've been paying attention recently, you know the difficulty of positive cash flow, volume production of EVs. Toyota is still at the base of a collosal mountain.

And you're starting to see talk to loosen those mandates because timetables are not realistic. I don't see hybrids going the way of the dodo any time soon. Even more efficient ICE will take some time to disappear completely imo. It'll be a patchwork of solutions if you ask me and that's more practical to implement. Like I said there's a lot of maturing to do with EVs in general as a total package of ownership imo. Probably a good portion of those open to it and the low hanging fruit have already adopted it but I think there are a lot people like me as well. I'm gonna pay more and have extra hassles that come with it too, no thanks. EVs haven't even really had to weather a bad economy yet and how would those higher prices fare in a down economy.

Everyone is jumping on the green green green bandwagon (just like any other bandwagon) while ignoring the practicality and reality of implementing things on such a timetable. I tend to think that realization will come sooner or later and you see signs of it starting to pop up recently.

I also expect Toyota will be fine in any new environment. I don't foresee the leading car company in the world going anywhere.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/business/toyotas-hybrid-electric-vehicles.html

 

[RU-05]

And you're starting to see talk to loosen those mandates because timetables are not realistic. I don't see hybrids going the way of the dodo any time soon. Even more efficient ICE will take some time to disappear completely imo. It'll be a patchwork of solutions if you ask me and that's more practical to implement. Like I said there's a lot of maturing to do with EVs in general as a total package of ownership imo. Probably a good portion of those open to it and the low hanging fruit have already adopted it but I think there are a lot people like me as well. I'm gonna pay more and have extra hassles that come with it too, no thanks. EVs haven't even really had to weather a bad economy yet and how would those higher prices fare in a down economy.

Everyone is jumping on the green green green bandwagon (just like any other bandwagon) while ignoring the practicality and reality of implementing things on such a timetable. I tend to think that realization will come sooner or later and you see signs of it starting to pop up recently.

I also expect Toyota will be fine in any new environment. I don't foresee the leading car company in the world going anywhere.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/business/toyotas-hybrid-electric-vehicles.html

I think “Green” is real, and as it pertains to this thread worthy of watching as investment opportunities, but hybrids, and efficiency in general is part of the thesis. Especially, as u note, some of these timelines are unrealistic.