R2 will do well but the multiples will never be the same. EVs will be valued more like car companies, not tech.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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RIVN is a pure car company, no ambition for anything else. Unlike TSLA, which is a tech company. :)
Car is on slickdeals
Fisker Cuts Prices on All Ocean EV Models - $61,499 to $37,499
Fisker just had a huge decrease in prices on all their cars. Of course, the company is in a bit of financial trouble but if they get saved, raise money, or get acquired this may be a good deal. OR ...
slickdeals.net
Problem with that comparison is the legacy car companies have been stagnant in terms of growth for forever.
Tesla by comparison had monster growth.
So they never should have had comparable valuations.
But if Tesla is no longer growing, or at least not growing near the rate it once did? Then that multiple needs to come in, even if there is a tech multiple boost built in.
Just got the invite to test out FSD complimentary for one month on the new software. Cant wait to test it out and see for myself as well. Maybe I will buy back into TSLA after I sold out of all my positions at end of December
You always have to compare it apples to apples. But the EV is adoption is not exponential. Everyone is fighting for a share of the pie. R2 will take sales away from Model 3, Y, Mach-E, ID4. Not sure it will win over ICE or Hybrid owners.
Insurers down on smaller than expected Medicare rate increases. UNH one of the ones down, about 4% premarket and might possibly break the support level it had been holding.
Above I mentioned I had a somewhat negative skew in it and this is just another issue. I think 450ish area if it gets that low could be a spot to step in to start a position though.
GEV spinoff official today too. Looks like GE will trade around 140 area after the spinoff.
Above I mentioned I had a somewhat negative skew in it and this is just another issue. I think 450ish area if it gets that low could be a spot to step in to start a position though.
GEV spinoff official today too. Looks like GE will trade around 140 area after the spinoff.
Seems like a good buying opportunity for UNH. Lost track of GE and the baby GEs with all the spin-offs. Still own a good amount of them via various funds.
TSLA down on underwhelming deliveries.
I like UNH if it gets to that area. I tend to think if they get lower than expected reimbursements from Medicare then they will increase their rates or change what they cover or how much they cover. It's always passed on to the consumer one way or another.
I'm in this category and I don't consider electric vehicles at all. In my mind, it's not mature enough when you look at the "overall package" and I can't be bothered to deal with those things.
No real surprise. Lots of reports over the past week that TSLA was going to kitchen sink this delivery report (and next earnings).
They have a remarkable amount of levers to pull. Overall, UNH doesn't have as much Medicare exposure as does Humana (proportionally). They will be just fine.
386k. Well below initial estimates and even well below downward revisions.
Still holding the $165 level
Is there such a thing as kitchen sinking a delivery report?
I just saw Xiaomi introduced an electric car. Just another competitor for TSLA in China.
UNH didn’t get the rate increase they expected for Medicare Advantage. This is what happens when government starts cutting expenses. I read that the hospitals and doctors were already fighting the advantage plans for low reimbursements. I had some UNH stock and it’s going to take a while to get back close to $500.
The majority of Medicare Advantage plans have no premiums, I guess that might change. Middle class retirees are really being attacked, expected to pay more of their medical expenses.
Really? that’s well below the revised down numbers. It’s down 8.5% from the year ago quarter. That’s worst case scenario.
ETA inventory is building up too. Expect more price cuts coming.
Yea I said above I was in and out of it for a small gain because I didn't like the way it was reacting. A push to the low 500s was possible but I didn't want to stick around to see. But now I have another good for the day order at a little bit below 450 if it gets there.
For TSLA, I think so. The delivery report is the preview of the earnings report. If you know the Q is going to be bad, why not hold onto deliveries and shut down plants early for required maintenance or improvements? The entire EV market is troughing. But when it turns, TSLA will likely lead the way back up.
The Chinese are becoming more nationalistic just like Americans and want to buy Chinese products instead of American. AAPL Chinese sales down 24% and now BYD sales ahead of TSLA. US has been attacking everything Chinese TikTok, Huawei, sanction semiconductors sales and semiconductor machines. The global firms will be hurt, we want de globalization and we are starting to see it. Both sides get hurt. Did globalization increase the stock market and will de globalization decrease the stock market? Maybe in 1-3 years, they will write about it
Unless it rallies back in the afternoon, I will likely buy near the close. I'm eyeing COST as well.
Unless something happens to change customer loyalty, sentiment, and current technical trends, COST will continue to slowly go up and to the right. It's down 10%'ish from its high. Might be a good time to start a position.
Lol... Why stop there? Do you even look at Rivian 's production #s before you make this stuff up?
Stop where? If Rivian only produces 50k R2s, that’s 50k less in sales for those models. Math isn’t that difficult.
Thought i heard 430ish from Ives.
He said this 386 number is an “unmitigated disaster”.
UNH briefly dipped below $450 this afternoon, but now back up to $456. I should have set a buy order. Oh well! :)
I got it as I said above I had a good for the day order a little below 450. It’s an okay bounce in the afternoon and I couldn’t rule out a better bounce up to high 460s and 470s area over a little bit of time.
I wouldn’t say “oh well” though because a revisit to lows of today or even a little lower are certainly possible over some time. I think that area has good support though but I don’t think it’s out of the woods yet. I’ll probably sell some of what I got today if it goes up to what I mentioned and then hold the rest for now with a stop out in case it breaks down. Hopefully a little bit of a quick small gain just like the last UNH trade and see where it goes. If f I look at a longer term chart I wouldn’t rule out a double top either.
You pulled 4 random models out of your ass. I can list 20 other models that Rivian will take sales from. Like most things you post, this wasn't well thought out.
You continue to insist that EVs are competing with each other. It is not true. As EVs grow, ICE decline. Math isn't difficult.
Great timing with the post. BYD and Tesla both reported significant Q over Q decline in sales. Math is difficult for you.
General Motors on Tuesday reported a 1.5% decline in first-quarter U.S. vehicle sales compared to a year ago, as the overall auto industry normalizes after years of disruptions and volatile results.
Buick was the only GM brand to report a sales increase during the quarter, up 16.4% from a year earlier. The GMC truck brand was off about 5%, while Cadillac and Chevrolet were both off about 2%.
Sales of GM’s all-electric vehicles, closely watched by Wall Street, remained miniscule during the first quarter. EV sales totaled 16,425 units, or 2.8% of the automaker’s overall sales during the period.
Hyundai reported its best March sales ever last month, at 76,920 vehicles sold, but its first-quarter sales were only up 0.2% compared to a year earlier.
Separately, Hyundai’s Genesis luxury brand reported sales of 14,777 vehicles during the first quarter, up 7.3% year over year.
Here is how other major automakers performed in U.S. sales compared to the first quarter of 2023:
- Toyota Motor reported a 16% increase in sales, including a 16.1% increase in March. The company sold nearly 388,000 vehicles during the first three months of the year.
- Honda Motor reported a 17.3% jump in sales to nearly 334,000 vehicles sold, including a 10.1% increase in March.
- Kia reported sales of 179,621 vehicles during the first quarter, off 2.5% year over year.
- Nissan Group announced first quarter sales of 252,735 vehicles, a 7.2% increase from a year earlier.
- EV startup Rivian Automotive reported vehicle deliveries of 13,588 vehicles during the first quarter, up from 7,946 vehicles a year earlier. The company reaffirmed guidance for annual production of 57,000 total vehicles, including 13,980 during the first three months of the year.
I don’t follow the auto industry that closely but I didn’t think Toyota went all in on EVs like some others. If anything, I think they’ve been kind of cautious similar to Fox not cranking out a streaming service when all the other media companies were cranking them out. It turned out to be a good decision for Fox as everyone else lost tons of money on their streaming services. I think Toyota has been mostly focused on hybrids for now with some research on faster charging batteries.
