OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[bob-loblaw]

Agreed, I get they are more than just a car company, but they aren't a data company like Google, amazon, fb. Those guys know what you are browsing, habits, thinking. Tsla won't collect that data beyond when you are in the car. If anything they are a consolidation of auto marketplace , auto refueling and potentially the ride share/ drive for hire industry. I just don't see the upside anymore with essentially most of that prices in already. I know it's probably going to still go up for now as the hysterical buying continues but I have to believe reality will hit soon.

If you think Tesla stops collecting when youre out of the car, you have some blinders on. It's like saying the Facebook app isnt always listening in the background...

They openly state in their privacy policy that they share data as they see fit. Install the app on your phone and you have openly given them free reign to everything on your phone. Just like Facebook. Look at the app permission and assume the most nefarious things, and its the reality. Privacy is d e a d.

 

[rutgersdave]

@bob-loblaw said:
"I think it's going to have have some pull backs. A lot of the Wall St people who bought in at 20k are looking at 100% returns in what 6 weeks? Im sure there will continue to be sells offs, but every dip thats happened since Thanksgiving has quickly rebounded. A big reason for this is Paypal & Square users essentially buying all the new BTC that is mined.

I think it'll rise to 45 - 50 in the next month, see a dip to the 30s and rise again. When it hit 22 or 23, I told friends of mine looking to get in to wait for the dip. The dip hasnt happened and I've angered some folk who kept waiting for a dip. "

I completely agree, and said almost verbatim, the same things to my friends who asked about buying bitcoin or GBTC. Volatility and 24/7 trading of bitcoin are not for the faint of heart. But the overall picture, painted by institutions and the scarcity of it, are positive longterm.

I’ll play it safe using PayPal and Square. I conservative that way.

 

[bob-loblaw]

I’ll play it safe using PayPal and Square. I conservative that way.

Nothing wrong with that. Although Coinbase is going public soon with an IPO and Gemini is well insured.

Just know that if you purchase crypto from paypal or Square, you will never have custody over your crypto. It will remain owned by one of those companies. Same with crypto on Robinhood. You can never take possession of it. This may not sound important, but self-sovereignty is a big asset in the crypto world, and the events of the last few days and past year add more value to that notion.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Interesting discussion and questions about BTC:

Thinking of buying bitcoin? What experts say about big crypto concerns: 'You have to be mentally prepared'

CNBC Make It spoke to bitcoin and fintech experts about the common concerns surrounding the cryptocurrency.

www.cnbc.com

 

[ScarletNut]

Interesting discussion and questions about BTC:

Thinking of buying bitcoin? What experts say about big crypto concerns: 'You have to be mentally prepared'

CNBC Make It spoke to bitcoin and fintech experts about the common concerns surrounding the cryptocurrency.

www.cnbc.com

Read that. Lots of good points

 

[T2Kplus20]

Read that. Lots of good points

Hoping for a nice dip.....then perhaps I would add a little more to the party. 😜

 

[Frida's Boss]

The data is in everything associated with the vehicle. Where you go, how you drive, what you connect to vehicle, they expand on everything thats connected to that device. https://www.tesla.com/about/legal I love this snippet here:
We may share information with:
(1) Our service providers and business partners when necessary to perform services on our or on your behalf

Tesla is no different than Facebook, Google or Amazon in that they are in the data collection business. Sorry, I dont have a direct answer on how they monetize it. All tech has one goal in mind; data collection. I'll compare it to McDonalds. The data and underlying tech is the real estate and the vehicles are the restaurants. Not the best comparison, but that's how I view Tesla.

I don't have a huge position in them. Im just trying to make the point that people often fll into the trap of looking at their value to just auto sales.



👍👍

Thanks. It does seem to me that most of that data is already captured via mobile devices (with the exception of driving behavior such as speed,etc.). How much incremental value can capture from TSLA provide? And I think that the value ascribed to the potential moentizatiom of that data doesnt justify the price paid for TSLA. After all, they’ll need to put a huge dent in the auto market to capture that information, and it’s not obvious to me that legacy automakers won’t emerge as potent threats in an EV dominated world. In short, a lot has to go right for TSLA to be a commercial success. And such success needs to be extreme to come close to justifying today’s share price.

 

[RU-05]

I think TSLA is well on it's way to being a commercial success. The technology, and more importantly the battery technology, positions them better then any other company for the growing EV market. Yes they are way behind in overall vehicles, but way ahead in the EV specific market. That specific market is growing very rapidly.

Now that is not an argument for that current market cap, but becoming commercially successful is a pretty safe bet.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Interesting discussion and questions about BTC:

Thinking of buying bitcoin? What experts say about big crypto concerns: 'You have to be mentally prepared'

CNBC Make It spoke to bitcoin and fintech experts about the common concerns surrounding the cryptocurrency.

www.cnbc.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

View embedded media

Damn straight! :)

 

[ScarletNut]

Hoping for a nice dip.....then perhaps I would add a little more to the party. 😜

No info other my opinion but I think it’ll dip when it hits 50k, a pretty psychological number. That might be a buying opportunity. I also could be totally wrong but I have some benchmarks in my head to take some profits

 

[applesktrack]

Green energy should be a focus of investment should explode upon reentry to paris climate agreement

 

[bob-loblaw]

Thanks. It does seem to me that most of that data is already captured via mobile devices (with the exception of driving behavior such as speed,etc.). How much incremental value can capture from TSLA provide? And I think that the value ascribed to the potential moentizatiom of that data doesnt justify the price paid for TSLA. After all, they’ll need to put a huge dent in the auto market to capture that information, and it’s not obvious to me that legacy automakers won’t emerge as potent threats in an EV dominated world. In short, a lot has to go right for TSLA to be a commercial success. And such success needs to be extreme to come close to justifying today’s share price.

It's the value of the demographics of who is driving a Tesla. High net worth individuals with a propensity to spend. Not defending the value of the stock based on data grabs. It's just valued more than you or I most likely think.

Either way, I'm not a Tesla fanboy by any stretch of the imagination. I just think there's more than meets the eye to this stock.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Green energy should be a focus of investment should explode upon reentry to paris climate agreement

are you trying to make money or feel good? There is an important distinction when discussing green energy.

 

[RUTGERS95]

It's the value of the demographics of who is driving a Tesla. High net worth individuals with a propensity to spend. Not defending the value of the stock based on data grabs. It's just valued more than you or I most likely think.

Either way, I'm not a Tesla fanboy by any stretch of the imagination. I just think there's more than meets the eye to this stock.

I don't know a single person who has a tesla that is high networth. I see plenty of cars that as or more expensive by people with same or less income. Tesla is driven by people who like the new thing, performance, and green. It's not a status symbol by any stretch

 

[RU-05]

are you trying to make money or feel good? There is an important distinction when discussing green energy.

IMO it looks like we can do both.

Solar stocks have been crushing it in this run. Now, is that another of the bubbles that people are wanting to point to? Maybe. Or maybe it's the beginning of a larger trend.

Certainly EV's are at the very beginning of an overall trend, and if you link that to a solar rooftop, or a renewable powerplant, then EV's are also part of the green energy movement. Plenty of money has been, and will continue to be made there.

 

[RU-05]

I don't know a single person who has a tesla that is high networth. I see plenty of cars that as or more expensive by people with same or less income. Tesla is driven by people who like the new thing, performance, and green. It's not a status symbol by any stretch

I don't know many high worth people, but one of the few (maybe only?)I know, does indeed drive a Tesla. Maybe not surprisingly he lives in Cali.

 

[bob-loblaw]

I don't know a single person who has a tesla that is high networth. I see plenty of cars that as or more expensive by people with same or less income. Tesla is driven by people who like the new thing, performance, and green. It's not a status symbol by any stretch

Odd. All of the people I know with them fit that category. The one person I know who is not, is a maxed out CC guy who likes to look like he's a big shot.

 

[RU-05]

Now this is a significant part of the bear case in regards to Tesla.

General Motors debuts new logo to show it means business when it comes to electric vehicles (msn.com)

I think TSLA maintains the top dog position in the EV market for the forseeable but GM is coming, Ford is coming, VW, NIO, LI etc. Competition is coming.

It's a big reason GM and Ford have been and continue to be near the biggest positions in my portfolio.

Now I would have made more $$$ if I stayed longer in TSLA, and then rotated towards GM and Ford, but going fwd I'm pretty comfortable holding those 2 over TSLA.

 

[RU-05]

Odd. All of the people I know with them fit that category. The one person I know who is not, is a maxed out CC guy who likes to look like he's a big shot.

The people who drive TSLA's are certainly not in the low income bracket. I would think most TSLA owners are high middle class and above.

 

[applesktrack]

are you trying to make money or feel good? There is an important distinction when discussing green energy.

Make money. I feel thia admin will push it and pump money into it

 

[RUBlackout]

It's the value of the demographics of who is driving a Tesla. High net worth individuals with a propensity to spend. Not defending the value of the stock based on data grabs. It's just valued more than you or I most likely think.

Either way, I'm not a Tesla fanboy by any stretch of the imagination. I just think there's more than meets the eye to this stock.

teslas are transformers?

 

[RUTGERS95]

The people who drive TSLA's are certainly not in the low income bracket. I would think most TSLA owners are high middle class and above.

no way, see plenty of teslas with people that are not that. no one said low class either

 

[T2Kplus20]

I've been in pharma/biotech my entire career. Started as a consultant at Biogen and now a first line exec at a one of the biggies. Even with tons of non-public info, I am constantly surprised by trial results, FDA decisions, and lawsuits. This unpredictability screams for a fund. And I mean managed fund over an ETF/index. I haven't compared all options, but I assume having a full-time expert managing a portfolio is the way to go.

I have PRHSX via my largest 401k account. I'm in deep and wish I jumped in sooner.

Interesting HC focused ETF for consideration:

PTH – Invesco Dorsey Wright Healthcare MomtETF – ETF Stock Quote | Morningstar

PTH – Invesco Dorsey Wright Healthcare MomtETF – Check PTH price, review total assets, see historical growth, and review the analyst rating from Morningstar.

www.morningstar.com

Having a nice run since 2017, but over the longer term, PRHSX has performed better. Not as red hot as ARKG which I would be a little nervous to jump into.

 

[RU-05]

no way, see plenty of teslas with people that are not that. no one said low class either

I guess I don't really know how much the people I see driving TSLA's down the street actually make, and certainly there are different models of TSLA, and different price tags associated with each, (the more prevalent TSLA's in recent years can be had for mid 30K) and maybe it's the area I live, but the people I actually know with TSLA's tend to be in that high middle class+ time zone.

 

[RUTGERS95]

with how cars are financed and leased, it's not status by any stretch

that said, adoption is key for EV, not just the technology. Adoption is prolonged when times are difficult as the avg time people hold onto a car jumps. Not only that, people can talk green all they want but 80% of the stuff one has in their home is based on petroleum products. Green is still 5 decades away so if you want to invest AND make money, oil, ng, lng, transport should be more of your portfolio

of note, Elon tweeting about ETH

 

[RU-05]

with how cars are financed and leased, it's not status by any stretch

that said, adoption is key for EV, not just the technology. Adoption is prolonged when times are difficult as the avg time people hold onto a car jumps. Not only that, people can talk green all they want but 80% of the stuff one has in their home is based on petroleum products. Green is still 5 decades away so if you want to invest AND make money, oil, ng, lng, transport should be more of your portfolio

of note, Elon tweeting about ETH

I never said it was status, just saying who I see driving them.

5 decades? I dunno, that seems like a long time. Unless we are talking 100% renewables, but we don't need to get to that level to make money in these spaces.

I'd also note that:

1)As per portfolio allocations, renewables are already way up, I've already made money here. Now, maybe they are too high at the moment, the run has been too hot? I think that is likely.

2)I think petroleum will rebound, and I think nat gas has a longer timeline then oil, but, for the latter specifically, I don't them see as a great long term play. EV's are coming, I think in a big way, that is going to be a big hit on oil revenues in the next decade.

Edit: Given the above I've been taking profits from my renewable positions and rotating towards petroleum, if we see that rotation in the market over the next year, with oil up and renewables down, I'll probably then look to start rotating back.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Elon tweeting about ETH

Speak more! :)

 

[RU-05]

Just looking through some charts to see who performed through the tech bubble.

NJR walked right through the bubble as if it never happened. It's also down 21% from a year ago. Add in their toe being in solar, and I really like them here.

Industrials like DE, CAT, and OSK, dipped just prior to the tech bubble really ramping up, perhaps as money rotated towards tech, but stayed pretty flat as the bubble burst, then really got moving upwards in 2003. Now unlike NJR above, DE and CAT look pretty expensive at this point.

United Steel very similar to the above. But currently way off where it has been in the previous decade.

Gold very similar to the above.

Toyota and Ford ran with, and then dipped with the techs. Toyota rebounded with the industrials, Ford did not.

Suprising to me is pharma's like PFE and BMY tanked with the tech bubble and did not rebound for a decade.

I do understand all sorts of other factors are involved, just tracking some charts.

 

[RUTGERS95]

I never said it was status, just saying who I see driving them.

5 decades? I dunno, that seems like a long time. Unless we are talking 100% renewables, but we don't need to get to that level to make money in these spaces.

I'd also note that:

1)As per portfolio allocations, renewables are already way up, I've already made money here. Now, maybe they are too high at the moment, the run has been too hot? I think that is likely.

2)I think petroleum will rebound, and I think nat gas has a longer timeline then oil, but, for the latter specifically, I don't them see as a great long term play. EV's are coming, I think in a big way, that is going to be a big hit on oil revenues in the next decade.

Edit: Given the above I've been taking profits from my renewable positions and rotating towards petroleum, if we see that rotation in the market over the next year, with oil up and renewables down, I'll probably then look to start rotating back.

let's do this because I can see you are smart guy so look at current consumption. Do a breakdown of avg vehicle cost, unemployment, finance rates, consumption of current oil usage, infrastructure and then come back tell me sooner than 50yrs and why

remember, it took 9yrs to make tunnel in Boston, 6yrs debating to add an additional tunnel in/out of nyc per the 911 review, etc etc etc

green is a pipedream and especially considering the parts of the 'green' car are made with petroleum and petroleum fueles the batter charge! None of that takes into consideration geo political issues and finite supply of current battery components which drives costs

 

[RU-05]

let's do this because I can see you are smart guy so look at current consumption. Do a breakdown of avg vehicle cost, unemployment, finance rates, consumption of current oil usage, infrastructure and then come back tell me sooner than 50yrs and why

remember, it took 9yrs to make tunnel in Boston, 6yrs debating to add an additional tunnel in/out of nyc per the 911 review, etc etc etc

green is a pipedream and especially considering the parts of the 'green' car are made with petroleum and petroleum fueles the batter charge! None of that takes into consideration geo political issues and finite supply of current battery components which drives costs

Those examples point to gov't inefficiencies.

This is a private enterprise movement. GM just had a press release stating that they will have 30 new ev model by 2025. Ford is doing similar, VW, the growth of TSLA.

The EV market is expected to grow 50% next year.

We just heard the news with PLUG and SK Group.

Cummins and their hydrogen train.

I'm not saying Oil will be gone in 10 years, but green will be significantly bigger. Edit:Significantly bigger then it is now, not significantly bigger then oil.

I'll also add to the edit Amazon's commitment to electric and hydrogen(and self driving, though that is a bit of a different story).

 

[T2Kplus20]

Just looking through some charts to see who performed through the tech bubble.

NJR walked right through the bubble as if it never happened. It's also down 21% from a year ago. Add in their toe being in solar, and I really like them here.

Industrials like DE, CAT, and OSK, dipped just prior to the tech bubble really ramping up, perhaps as money rotated towards tech, but stayed pretty flat as the bubble burst, then really got moving upwards in 2003. Now unlike NJR above, DE and CAT look pretty expensive at this point.

United Steel very similar to the above. But currently way off where it has been in the previous decade.

Gold very similar to the above.

Toyota and Ford ran with, and then dipped with the techs. Toyota rebounded with the industrials, Ford did not.

Suprising to me is pharma's like PFE and BMY tanked with the tech bubble and did not rebound for a decade.

I do understand all sorts of other factors are involved, just tracking some charts.

I researched the tech/dot.com bubble for quite a while (from a fund/index POV). This led me to PRHSX which did very well during the 2000s and still grew like a weed for the past 5 years. Win-Win! 2000s was the decade for value stocks (as growth stocks tanked) and some international markets (including emerging markets). Also small/mid over large caps. I believe mid-caps had the only growth stocks in the market that recovered pretty quickly.

Can't help with individual stocks!

 

[T2Kplus20]

The EV market is expected to grow 50% next year.

If true, may be interesting:

iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF | IDRV

The iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of developed and emerging market companies that may benefit from growth and innovation in and around electric vehicles, battery technologies and autonomous driving technologies.

www.ishares.com

So far so good:

IDRV – Performance – iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF | Morningstar

IDRV Performance - Review the performance history of the iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF to see it's current status, yearly returns, and dividend history.

www.morningstar.com

 

[Frida's Boss]

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry predicts Tesla stock will collapse like the housing bubble: 'Enjoy it while it lasts'

"Well, my last Big Short got bigger and Bigger and BIGGER too," the Scion Asset Management boss tweeted on Thursday.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[rurahrah000]

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry predicts Tesla stock will collapse like the housing bubble: 'Enjoy it while it lasts'

"Well, my last Big Short got bigger and Bigger and BIGGER too," the Scion Asset Management boss tweeted on Thursday.

markets.businessinsider.com

There will be a pull back at some point, but the long term bull thesis remains in play. You can’t go up more than 200x in under 3 years without a serious 20 or 30 or even 40% correction. The question is how much more will it run up before the correction. The one thing that limits downside is that up until now, every insider I know has refused to sell a significant amount of shares. There were people close to selling when Elon Musk was almost out of control some 2 years ago, but now that is not an issue.

 

[rurahrah000]

Nice, punch him in the nose, then give him a big hug.

Good thing @T2Kplus10 likes it rough.

I don’t want the guys ego to get hurt. Next thing you know, he putting his daughter’s 529 fund in penny stocks and loses it all. Don’t want her ending up at Middlesex County College.

 

[Frida's Boss]

There will be a pull back at some point, but the long term bull thesis remains in play. You can’t go up more than 200x in under 3 years without a serious 20 or 30 or even 40% correction. The question is how much more will it run up before the correction. The one thing that limits downside is that up until now, every insider I know has refused to sell a significant amount of shares. There were people close to selling when Elon Musk was almost out of control some 2 years ago, but now that is not an issue.

Very well could be the case. i wouldn’t short it for the reasons I’ve already offered, but the current price is way, way overdone in my view. I would take the over on your highest estimate of a pullback, too

 

[rurahrah000]

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry predicts Tesla stock will collapse like the housing bubble: 'Enjoy it while it lasts'

"Well, my last Big Short got bigger and Bigger and BIGGER too," the Scion Asset Management boss tweeted on Thursday.

markets.businessinsider.com

Beware of pump and dump. If he shorted in November or December, then he started at a price between 500’s and 700. I doubt he shorted it once it was announced that TSLA was to join the S&P 500, so his short likely came with TSLA in 500-600 range. TSLA is probably up more than 40-50% and he is using his celebrity status to induce a sell off which allows him to get out of the short. Pump and dump.

 

[rurahrah000]

Very well could be the case. i wouldn’t short it for the reasons I’ve already offered, but the current price is way, way overdone in my view. I would take the over on your highest estimate of a pullback, too

The demise or collapse of TSLA stock has been predicted numerous times and still has not come to fruition.

 

[Frida's Boss]

Beware of pump and dump. If he shorted in November or December, then he started at a price between 500’s and 700. I doubt he shorted it once it was announced that TSLA was to join the S&P 500, so his short likely came with TSLA in 500-600 range. TSLA is probably up more than 40-50% and he is using his celebrity status to induce a sell off which allows him to get out of the short. Pump and dump.

No chance,