Yes, but the same is said of nearly all overvalued stocks before they collapse.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Yes, but the same is said of nearly all overvalued stocks before they collapse.
Overvalued at at market cap of over 800 billion? Can you provide examples? Stocks don’t usually get to that market value unless there is something there
Examples of overvalued stocks that collapsed? Well, there are plenty. I mean, look at 2000 to start. You’ll have plenty to choose from.
From Zweig's column, although it was only a small part:
"If Tesla stock were to keep going at the same rate as it did in 2020, by the end of this year it would have a market value of roughly $6 trillion. By year-end 2022, it would be worth $51 trillion"
If true, may be interesting:
iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF | IDRV
The iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of developed and emerging market companies that may benefit from growth and innovation in and around electric vehicles, battery technologies and autonomous driving technologies.www.ishares.com
So far so good:
IDRV – Performance – iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF | Morningstar
IDRV Performance - Review the performance history of the iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF to see it's current status, yearly returns, and dividend history.www.morningstar.com
Consider TSLA's revenue over the last 6 years.
2015 $4Billion
2016 $7B
2017 $11.7
2018 $21.4
2019 $24.6
2020 $31B(still estimated waiting on 4th qtr).
Estimated future rev's.
2021 $45B
2022 $58
2023 $69
So from 2015 to 2020 rev's were up nearly 8x. And they are expected to more then double again in 3 years. Which if true means their rev's jumped 17x in 8 years.
I point to this not as a justification for TSLA's current valuation, but moreso to note that the overall EV market has been and is expected to continue growing in leaps and bounds. Also note that TSLA's future rev's are, I would expect, factoring in the many players who are entering into, and thus competing in, the ev market.
IDRV is interesting but I imagine it is tied heavily to some companies that have risen dramatically this year.
I've mentioned this before but I like GM and Ford as EV plays.
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But what is the point of that? Is he arguing against people who think it will continue to rise at last years rate in upcoming years? Is anyone making that argument?
Yeah, but if people have predicted the stock will collapse since it was at $50, then it gets to $800 in a year, and collapses back to $400, were those initial predictions correct?
A couple other revenue examples on the "green" trade.
RUN(solar) is up 3x since 2015.
PLUG(hydrogen) is up 3x since 2015.
PLUG's rev's expected to nearly double again by 2022.
RUN's expected to nearly double by 2023.
The recent runs are probably overdone, but there is significant revenue growth in these sectors.
On the other hand Exxon's 2021 rev's are expected to be less then their 2015 rev's.
RUN(solar) is up 3x since 2015.
PLUG(hydrogen) is up 3x since 2015.
PLUG's rev's expected to nearly double again by 2022.
RUN's expected to nearly double by 2023.
The recent runs are probably overdone, but there is significant revenue growth in these sectors.
On the other hand Exxon's 2021 rev's are expected to be less then their 2015 rev's.
IDRV is a managed ETF, so they can adjust as needed. Check out their portfolio (bottom of the page):
IDRV – Portfolio – iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF | Morningstar
IDRV Portfolio - Learn more about the iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF investment portfolio including asset allocation, stock style, stock holdings and more.
I didn't say you did, I said "when people", and if you go back through the line of discussion, I think it is fair to note that people have been predicting this stock to dump forever.
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Just looked them up and they have an interesting group of holdings.IDRV is a managed ETF, so they can adjust as needed. Check out their portfolio (bottom of the page):
IDRV – Portfolio – iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF | Morningstar
IDRV Portfolio - Learn more about the iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF investment portfolio including asset allocation, stock style, stock holdings and more.
TSLA is the obvious, but Samsung, Apple, Intel, AMD, Qualcom, GOOGL, NVDA, Daimler.
Edit: Just noticed that your link provided the ETF'S holdings. I didn't see NIO in the list I brought up, I also forgot to mention Toyota. Those are more obvious EV holdings, not that the semi's don't make sense. AAPL and GOOGL are interesting.
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I'm really thinking about IDRV. If you think EVs are going to be the norm soon (likely true), this may be a good choice. iShares is a solid, legit company and their investment goal for this ETF is broad (as in, not just caremakers):
INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE
The iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of developed and emerging market companies that may benefit from growth and innovation in and around electric vehicles, battery technologies and autonomous driving technologies.
Why IDRV?
1. Access to companies at the forefront of self-driving and electric vehicle (EV) innovation
2. Exposure to global stocks along the full value chain of self-driving and EV industries, across sectors and geographies
3. Seek long-term growth with access to companies that can shape the global economic future
They might have. At a price of $50, I did not, so, you’d have to ask them,
I was just following the line of discussion from @rurahrah000 's post which said this "The demise or collapse of TSLA stock has been predicted numerous times and still has not come to fruition."
But we can change my example, if people have been predicting TSLA's demise since $400, and it get's to $800 before collapsing back to $400, were those people right?
Just to clear this up, consensus forecasts call for net earnings for 21, 22 and 23 of $4.2bn, $6.1bn and $7.4bn, respectively.
This is a silly line of questions, as it all has to do with valuation and I’ve not looked at TSLA at either $50 or $400. You’ll have to find someone else to play your hypothetical. I’m not interested.
I don't know if they will be the norm any time soon, but they are certainly growing at an impressive clip.
The one concern would be how much of that growth is already baked in? TSLA for sure, but any of those companies, NIO has been on a huge run itself.
Lot of high flyers on that list.
I did say revenues. Edit, my bad, I said future earning, meant revs.
My point was the growth of the EV market.
But you posted a story predicting the collapse of the stock price.
My questions, especially given the line of discussion above, don't seem that out of line.
I posted a story about one of the best investors of the last 20 years. He is short TSLA. Anyone long is on the opposite sode of Burry. I’ve no position, but I definitely wouldn’t want to be on the other side of him. Burry thinks the stock will collapse. Is collapsing falling in half? Yes.
HA! HA! Just joking. Looking for ETHE to go under $10 and then I may pick up another coin or two. Not interested in GBTC unless it drops a lot.
Been waiting for a down day. I have some allocation moves to make. As Frida mentioned, emerging markets is a good place to be now. I'm going to slowing move my international exposure up to 10%'ish (VWIGX and EEM).
Including the miners, it's about 6%. Which is high, but even with a lot of trimming(although some of that moved to other cheaper crypto options) it has grown to that level. I'm up 270% on GBTC for instance. Just stupid gains.
So tomorrow is probably going to suck, but the overall has been very good.
Came across these this morning. Not my thing but for those in it.
www.cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com
$150 billion wiped off cryptocurrency market in 24 hours as bitcoin pulls back
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, fell over 10% from a day earlier to $34,200, according to Coin Metrics data.
Crypto investors 'should be prepared to lose all their money,' top UK regulator warns
People investing in cryptocurrencies risk losing all their money, according to U.K.'s Financial Conduct Authority.
It's going to be a bumpy ride. It will either be a strikeout or grand slam! Just seems like ETH has more utility and value in the long run.Came across these this morning. Not my thing but for those in it.
$150 billion wiped off cryptocurrency market in 24 hours as bitcoin pulls back
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, fell over 10% from a day earlier to $34,200, according to Coin Metrics data.
Crypto investors 'should be prepared to lose all their money,' top UK regulator warns
People investing in cryptocurrencies risk losing all their money, according to U.K.'s Financial Conduct Authority.
Just to reiterate, historically there have been at least 7 dips of 20% or more during the last bull run of bitcoin when it last halved in 2017. The institutional investing should raise the floor.
Forgot to bring my phone to work, perhaps a Freudian slip, my subconscious not wanting to see the carnage of Crypto down big alongside a down overall market.
Just checked, and I'm up 1%. Near shocked, obviously pleasantly.
Helped in a big way by a 100% jump from ZOM.
Just checked, and I'm up 1%. Near shocked, obviously pleasantly.
Helped in a big way by a 100% jump from ZOM.
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