Let me ask you this question. If you invest in TSLA today, you are buying the business at an enterprise value of $835bn. What is an acceptable rerun on that capital? In other words, as a business owner, what cash flow should you expect to have delivered to you annually on that investment? 10%? if that’s your minimum, then TSLA will need to earn $83bn to justify your investment.Now, when do you suppose TSLA may earn that amount of money Each year? Is the return estimate off? Should it be higher? Maybe 15%? Then it needs to earn $126bn.
Now, I realize that TSLA has unique assets and the potential to have various income streams emerge, in the future, surrounding its share of the EV market along with the various revenue streams they can earn in each vehicle. Great.
So, how long will it take for them to earn a 10% annual return on the enterprise value today? The longer it takes, by definition, the less certain.
And that’s the crux of the arguement. tSLA May achieve great things. But it’s nearly impossible to justify its value economically today.