But you were young and didn’t have 30 years of value build up in 2008. If you had your current allocation and 30+ years in, you would have been whacked big time. When you are 100% allocated, you have squat to buy the correction
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OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Not sure about that. Maybe I just got lucky with the timing and learned my lesson early in my career. Was down well over 7-figures in each 2020 and 2022 and just keep buying. Sure, the numbers were way bigger during these crashes as compared to 2008/2009, but the principles on what to do were the same.
My biggest risk is my company equity (RSU and options). I enjoy playing with stocks in my personal account, but single stock risk is makes me nervous. I'm much more comfortable with ETFs, funds, indexes.....even those with leverage.
Always open to hearing advice on this topic!
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just 1 week ago he said Russell could be up 40% in 10 weeks, now he is saying 15% in the next 5 weeks. seems he is lowering his expectations.
Amazon will be a huge AI winner. Andy J may turn out to be a better CEO than Bezos.
Amazon Revenue Breakdown - FourWeekMBA
Amazon generated over half a trillion dollars in revenue in 2023, of which $231.87B from online stores, over $140.05B from third-party seller services, $90.76B from AWS, $46.9B from advertising, $40.21B from subscription services, $20.03B billion in physical stores, and $4.96B from other...
fourweekmba.com
Breakdown of AMZN's rev's from Feb. Really good graph near the top spanning back to 2015.
Also.
"The interesting take about Amazon, which many are not aware of, is the fact that its core business (the e-commerce platform) is also, and still, unprofitable."
Through 2022 at least. Takeaway there is they are still investing to grow, and could flip that switch if they want to put profits over growth.
Edit: A little more then halfway through you'll see a graph which include both rev's and earnings. Rev's are through the roof, earnings very muted by comparison.
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I dunno, maybe. Certainly possible it's up 15% in August and 40% overall in 10 weeks. Especially if the 10% move we've already seen is included in the 40%.
But I think the real point is that he is very bullish on small caps. Quibbling on specifics isn't all that interesting.
Anybody got any theories for why the big selloff the past couple weeks in S&P and NDQ? Rotation into small caps or pricing in a rate cut?
Just some healthy profit taking from the massive AI and Big Tech rally. Doesn't seem like anything else.
Bought more GOOGL and CRWD today. Started a small LULU position.
Both, but they are intertwined. The rotation into small caps is because of the impending rate cuts.
And as @T2Kplus20 notes above, it's very easy to take profits on the megacap's after their huge runs so as to start positions in the small caps, value plays, or other downtrodden stocks..
I bought back some CRWD, about 20% of the position I previously held.
Also bought back some SMCI, also about a 20% position of what I previously held. Google and Meta were down in part because of more AI spending, that should benefit the likes of NVDA, AVGO(I want some) and SMCI.
Someone noted that NVDA now has a chip that is legal for sale in China, and that could further juice earnings.
Gene M on his Deepwater YouTube channel talked about TSM growing 40% last quarter and being booked through 2026. If true, NVDA et al are going to keep blowing up.
Speaking of new positions, the more I read about GEV the more bullish I am. Any other energy infrastructure plays? Not including utilities.
Smaller companies are more likely to borrow money especially those that are not profitable.
The mega cap companies print their own cash(via profits), and thus don’t need loans.
+1
Small caps are super sensitive to interest rates. And leading the way on this dynamic is my beloved biotech industry, especially clinical stage companies (i.e., no revenue yet). We got demolished in 2022/2023 with the rate hikes but now ripping due to the likelihood of the cutting cycle.
FYI - buy biotechs. :)
Hmmm.... Rates would need to be cut by at least 1.5% to benefit a typical small cap in need of $. So three 50bps cuts might be enough of a dip to really make a difference. That's well into '25.
The RUT outperforming on an overall up date.
market front running
BMY up 10%
Like 3m a downtrodden that pops big on good earnings
Like 3m a downtrodden that pops big on good earnings
PFE keeps grinding upwards (thinking about closing my calls and buying shares?). I'm still not a believer in BMY. Their loss of patent exposure over the next 4-5 years is massive. About 60% of BMY revenue may be lost.
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I bought PFE this week. Was in and out recently, didn't trade it well as it zigged when I was expected a zag, but hoping to maintain the position for awhile.
Also bought some NYCB today. Had a decent little run prior to earnings, sold off heavy on earnings, but bounced right back. I bought it mid day today and I'm up a couple %.
Sold the rest of my RIG. Had a big up day this week on some contract news so I was slightly in the green, but I think I sold some at a loss a month or two back, so I did poorly here overall. WTI's been dropping this week.
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