Outstanding Q2 presentation, definitely worth the read:
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Took profits last week at $21…may have to get back in if it dips. Was not expecting this pop!
I can not figure out the price action for HII.
PE of 15x. Beats on revs. Beats handily in EPS. Strong growth yoy. Came into the call off its ath’s set before the last earnings call.
But down 5%
Id add but i did that last qtr and its one of my biggest positions. Im actually waiting for a good opportunity to trim.
PE of 15x. Beats on revs. Beats handily in EPS. Strong growth yoy. Came into the call off its ath’s set before the last earnings call.
But down 5%
Id add but i did that last qtr and its one of my biggest positions. Im actually waiting for a good opportunity to trim.
Powell may snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Worst Fed Chair ever? Looking for a .50% cut in Sept if the employment data looks weak tomorrow.
Economy still looks strong though. Powell missed inflation on the way up. He’s still looking good on the way down. Those who have been critiquing Powell and calling for cuts for a year or more(prof siegel) have been on the wrong side of the call.
They should have done .25 this week and then said they were neutral going forward depending on data. Way better than 50/50 chance of slowing GDP and tick up in unemployment than a stealth spike in inflation coming in the near future.
I was somewhat joking and sure the market is overreacting to the weekly jobless claims. However, the market is demanding to get those cuts going. Even Powell admitted that he doesn't want to see the jobs market soften anymore.
In other news, I closed my CURE and UWM positions this morning (my only leverage is now via QLD). 60-62% returns for both! I need to free up some cash in my Fidelity rollover IRA to reposition a few things, start adding FBTC exposure, and move my small-cap play to FS Insight's SMID cap stock list (which I am using in my personal account).
And maybe I should buy more ZETA! 😁
I missed the jobless claims. What are the numbers?
Edit: 249K vs 235 expected.
But I'm guessing these people at Quartz don't know what they are talking about?
The Dow plunges 500 points as jobless claims rise, killing hopes for interest rate cuts
A day after rallying, stocks were down on Thursday
qz.com
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Yeah, that's a stupid article. Killing hopes for a rate cut? LOL! A weakening job market means more rate cuts and probably 50 bps in September.I missed the jobless claims. What are the numbers?
Edit: 249K vs 235 expected.
But I'm guessing these people at Quartz don't know what they are talking about?
The Dow plunges 500 points as jobless claims rise, killing hopes for interest rate cuts
A day after rallying, stocks were down on Thursday
Hang on. Don't jump. This, too, shall pass. Buying opportunities ahead.
Outstanding results for AAPL! And pretty damn good for AMZN. Love to see AWS beating expectations.
A single stock portfolio and he picks INTC? Smart.
Seems a concern for AMZN, like for GOOGLE and Meta for a second, is AI spending. AMZN spent $30B in the first half of the year and expects to spend more then that in the 2nd half.
Says AMZN: "The majority of the spend will be to support the growing need for AWS infrastructure, as we continue to see strong demand in both generative AI and our non-generative AI workflows,"
Not sure how that effects the stock price for AMZN going fwd(kind of sounds good though), but I have to figure the AI infrastructure plays have another run in them.
Hopefully there are more wealthy grandparents on the brink.
So looking at todays jobless claims number in context to historical numbers.
1)There does look to be a seasonal aspect to this. Something to do with the auto industry. This was the highest number since Aug last year. That obviously was not the precursor to a recession. Or even higher numbers. In 2022 jobless claims peaked July 30th with 229 claims and were back down below 200K in Sept. In 2023 they peaked Aug 5th with 258K claims, and were back to 200K by Oct.
2) Prior to 2014, jobless claim numbers below 300K were exceedingly rare. Just a handful of weeks each decade going back to about 1975. Is that due to change in policy? Maybe workforce participation?
3)There have been 7 recessions since 1972. There was a strong run up of jobless claims prior to 3 of those recessions, which on the surface one might say that doesn't make for much of an indicator. But of the 4 which did not see a jobless claim increase prior, one of those was Covid. Another the GFC. Another the oil embargo. And one quickly followed a previous recession in the early 80's. So, excluding the double dip, over the last 50 years years a steady rise in jobless claims, or a black swan event has preceded every recession.
1)There does look to be a seasonal aspect to this. Something to do with the auto industry. This was the highest number since Aug last year. That obviously was not the precursor to a recession. Or even higher numbers. In 2022 jobless claims peaked July 30th with 229 claims and were back down below 200K in Sept. In 2023 they peaked Aug 5th with 258K claims, and were back to 200K by Oct.
2) Prior to 2014, jobless claim numbers below 300K were exceedingly rare. Just a handful of weeks each decade going back to about 1975. Is that due to change in policy? Maybe workforce participation?
3)There have been 7 recessions since 1972. There was a strong run up of jobless claims prior to 3 of those recessions, which on the surface one might say that doesn't make for much of an indicator. But of the 4 which did not see a jobless claim increase prior, one of those was Covid. Another the GFC. Another the oil embargo. And one quickly followed a previous recession in the early 80's. So, excluding the double dip, over the last 50 years years a steady rise in jobless claims, or a black swan event has preceded every recession.
Gotta keep spending to make AWS and Amazon a big player with AI. No way around it. Jassy built AWS so we all know what his priority is. It's the growth engine of the entire company. Buy this dip like a MoFo!
I have a buddy that bought $500K of Intel few weeks ago around $30…changed his mind after few days and sold it all around $36 when it spiked. He dodged a HUGE bullet.
I don't have the guts to make a bet like that on a single stock. My company equity (options and RSUs) freaks me out. LOL!
I mentioned this earlier in the thread, INTC can have its moments but inevitably through various managements a big bust is around the corner. Now after a nice run a big bust has occurred again.
You see my MO around here, it's usually the stocks that have taken a beating and getting crushed that I have more interest in. I'd take more interest in it now in the low 20s than when it was above 30. Elimination of the dividend of the qtr is a big minus for me though. As is, I'd see it as dead money for a bit even on a potential turn so a lack of dividend (who knows if short or long term duration) isn't helpful.
I was posting about Intel weeks ago.
Actual consumers and tech (vs financial) media watchers knew Intel products were a mess.
Their cpus were running like junk and physically corroding
Now they will cut 15-20k workers when the chip market is actually hot.
Just another US corporation tied-up in knots and tripping over its own feet.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/1/2...00-employees-and-will-cut-10-billion-in-costs
They need to go tap another branch of the Jensen Huang/Lisa Su family tree. That family tree seems to know how to run chip companies haha.
INTC desperately needs new leadership. Maybe SBUX and NKE are turnaround plays. Rough times for both companies, but they aren't going anywhere. BA is the same story.
BA just named their new CEO who ran Rockwell Collins at one time and is supposedly moving the hq back to Seattle where most of the manufacturing is still done. People think that's a sign of a new emphasis on QC.
Good to know, definitely may be a sign. I have also been eyeing MCD, but I think the GLP-1s are a legit threat to its growth and that pressure isn't going to stop any time soon.
AMD turned the corner with Ryzen
Ryzen was created by microprocessor engineer Jim Keller (PSU Grad).
This happened before Lisa Su - who has a main talent of staying out of the way of the engineers.
Keller has legend status in cpu world - he understands computer hardware better than anyone.
Intel did the opposite of AMD and started treating the engineers as "lesser" than the marketing boys and girls.
That's how Intel got on the wrong path - they stopped innovating and instead slapped new numbers on older chip variations.
It was kind of a con - and the chips cost a lot.
Keller was asked to work for Intel a few years ago and bailed-out (that was a bad sign for Intel)
The mastermind:
With this thinking in mind I bought a bunch of SweetGreen this week and may continue to add. Hoping it will be a long-term Chipotle type of play. I also like Cava but missed the boat and not sure Mediterranean type food/diet is as appealing to all.
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