OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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It’s well of its ATH of like $468 ish now at least. I could see it grinding higher slowly from here. I’m hoping they get a big upside surprise in Search one of these quarters. They have pecked away tiny bits of market share from Google already.
Powell to begin the rate cutting cycle this afternoon by forecasting the first cut in Sept. Hopefully! :)
But that idea has been the driver for the small cap run, which looks to have come at the expense of the mega cap's.
Maybe this is a sell the rumor buy the news situation for mega's?
Sounds plausible, but not sure. I think both can go up as the cutting cycle begins, but sooner rather than later institutions and investors are going to say.....oh crap, I need more shares of the biggest and best companies in the world. When that happens, maybe the small cap rally slows but doesn't stop?
Looking for a quick dip in early trading so as to add to some tech positions.
@RU-05 , @T2Kplus20 , either of you still own DEFTF? Earnings on August 11 could be a game changer.
Nah, got out at $1.50 on the way down.
The chart, after giving up the parabolic move, has gotten back on a more believable uptrend.
What are we expecting on earnings? I see they reported negative revenue(not earnings, negative rev's) last qtr.
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They continue to increase their cash balance (over 69 million currently) and are planning stock buybacks along with their increasing revenue. I believe they have very little or no debt (not quite sure about that).
Thanks for the heads up. I have a small position at $1.5'ish, so back in the green. Sounds like a time to buy a little more or do some call? :)
By the way, friendly heads up for those BTC-curious that haven't bought much yet. Trump and RFK are now on the record with being super crypto-friendly, including creating a US strategic BTC reserve of 1-4 million coins. Speculation is that Harris is going to quickly fall in-line and pivot from Biden on the industry. Her past record has been leaning in this direction already.
With everyone rowing in the same direction, we can all assume what will happen with supply and demand of BTC.
@ScarletNut
@Rutgers Chris
With everyone rowing in the same direction, we can all assume what will happen with supply and demand of BTC.
@ScarletNut
@Rutgers Chris
As an aside, if you own GBTC as of 7/30, you will be receiving a distribution of an equal amount of shares of a new mini BTC etf trading on the NY stock exchange. The price of GBTC will decrease proportionally. I'm not sure what the purpose of this new etf is other than maybe Grayscale wanted a presence on the NY stock exchange.
I think the "mini" BTC and ETH ETFs are to get around Grayscale's awful decision to keep fees super high on GBTC and ETHE. They wanted to create new/separate ETFs at a low fee because they know some institutions and investors are "trapped" in GBTC and ETHE due to taxable gains.
So essentially, they are trying to have their cake and eat it too.
Here's the official explanation for the "spin-off":
Added to INTC at $30.7. Down in the original postion as I thought it had gotten up off the floo, but no, it's still on the floor. But $30 has been support.
Also bought a little more CRWD. Build that position back up. Currently 17 x revs. And 11x next years revs. Of course those fwd projections are in question at this point.
Also bought a little more CRWD. Build that position back up. Currently 17 x revs. And 11x next years revs. Of course those fwd projections are in question at this point.
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I bought BITX this week. 2x leveraged Bitcoin fund. The SEC also gave up on trying to prove many other coins are securities and amended their Binance lawsuit. The regulatory tide has turned.
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Fed holding rates steady. Not sure if it’s been mentioned here but I’ve heard it on a podcast or two so I thought it was worth mentioning. The history of the 2% inflation target is fascinating.
“The 2 percent target widely adopted by central banks today originated from New Zealand, and surprisingly it came not from any academic study, but rather from an offhand comment during a television interview. During the late 1980s, New Zealand was going through a period of high inflation. In 1988, inflation had just come down from a high of 15 percent to around 10 percent. New Zealand’s finance minister, Roger Douglas, was pressed during a television interview about whether the government was satisfied with the now lower—albeit still high—level of inflation. Douglas replied that he was not, saying that he’d ideally want an inflation rate of between zero to 1 percent. At the time there was no set target and the remark was completely off the cuff. But now that it had been made by the nation’s finance minister, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand felt it had to work out a specific target. It determined that there tended to be an “upward bias” in inflation calculations and estimated that this bias in New Zealand was around 0.75 percent, which it rounded to 1 percent, providing a target boundary of 2 percent. Once set, it virtually became gospel among central banks. Canada and England soon adopted 2 percent as their inflation target, as did other central banks. The Federal Reserve never adopted an official numeric target during the period in which so many other central banks did so. The 2 percent target was officially adopted in January 2012 under the leadership of then- Chair Ben Bernanke”
www.cfr.org
“The 2 percent target widely adopted by central banks today originated from New Zealand, and surprisingly it came not from any academic study, but rather from an offhand comment during a television interview. During the late 1980s, New Zealand was going through a period of high inflation. In 1988, inflation had just come down from a high of 15 percent to around 10 percent. New Zealand’s finance minister, Roger Douglas, was pressed during a television interview about whether the government was satisfied with the now lower—albeit still high—level of inflation. Douglas replied that he was not, saying that he’d ideally want an inflation rate of between zero to 1 percent. At the time there was no set target and the remark was completely off the cuff. But now that it had been made by the nation’s finance minister, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand felt it had to work out a specific target. It determined that there tended to be an “upward bias” in inflation calculations and estimated that this bias in New Zealand was around 0.75 percent, which it rounded to 1 percent, providing a target boundary of 2 percent. Once set, it virtually became gospel among central banks. Canada and England soon adopted 2 percent as their inflation target, as did other central banks. The Federal Reserve never adopted an official numeric target during the period in which so many other central banks did so. The 2 percent target was officially adopted in January 2012 under the leadership of then- Chair Ben Bernanke”
The History and Future of the Federal Reserve’s 2 Percent Target Rate of Inflation
The Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target rate of inflation is not strictly empirically derived. Should it modify this target moving forward?
www.cfr.org
Powell admitted sometime last year that the 2% target is pretty much BS. It's like a speed limit. The goal is likely anything under 3% but you need to say 2% because everyone overshoots the rule.Fed holding rates steady. Not sure if it’s been mentioned here but I’ve heard it on a podcast or two so I thought it was worth mentioning. The history of the 2% inflation target is fascinating.
“The 2 percent target widely adopted by central banks today originated from New Zealand, and surprisingly it came not from any academic study, but rather from an offhand comment during a television interview. During the late 1980s, New Zealand was going through a period of high inflation. In 1988, inflation had just come down from a high of 15 percent to around 10 percent. New Zealand’s finance minister, Roger Douglas, was pressed during a television interview about whether the government was satisfied with the now lower—albeit still high—level of inflation. Douglas replied that he was not, saying that he’d ideally want an inflation rate of between zero to 1 percent. At the time there was no set target and the remark was completely off the cuff. But now that it had been made by the nation’s finance minister, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand felt it had to work out a specific target. It determined that there tended to be an “upward bias” in inflation calculations and estimated that this bias in New Zealand was around 0.75 percent, which it rounded to 1 percent, providing a target boundary of 2 percent. Once set, it virtually became gospel among central banks. Canada and England soon adopted 2 percent as their inflation target, as did other central banks. The Federal Reserve never adopted an official numeric target during the period in which so many other central banks did so. The 2 percent target was officially adopted in January 2012 under the leadership of then- Chair Ben Bernanke”
The History and Future of the Federal Reserve’s 2 Percent Target Rate of Inflation
The Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target rate of inflation is not strictly empirically derived. Should it modify this target moving forward?
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From The Man yesterday:
"Buy the fear. High probability of a +4% to 5% 5 day equity rally post-FOMC (Wed), Led by small-caps."
Finally had the chance to read Powell's comments and Q&A highlights. Everything we could have hoped for. :)
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Wasn't a 4% day, and it wasn't led by the small caps, but still a very nice day all around.
Meta up after hours.
As is QCOM.
ARM down initially.
I think 2 is the goal, but there is an acceptable range which brackets from 1 to 3 or something like that.
Another great report from Big Tech:
Meta shares pop on revenue and earnings beat, better than expected forecast
Meta shares pop on revenue and earnings beat, better than expected forecast
Historically, anything under 3% of perfectly good. PCE is already down to 2.5%, so life is good.
He said 4-5% over the next 5 trading days. I will send you the entire alert.
Just noticed that NVDA was up 13% today. LOL! CNBC had an article that MSFT's report confirms that AI chip spending is still ripping.
Article:
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Brought @$ 399 last night and brought more this afternoon. I sold some Meta after earning but have a substantial amount when it dropped a couple of weeks ago. Meta still off its high and expect it to come back at some point.
Beats on Rev's, raises q3, and fy24 rev guidance above consensus.
Achieves Rule of 50. Which is a good thing apparently.
EPS was a loss and merely in line, but rev growth ftw!!!
My only negative about ZETA.....wish I bought more. :)
But it is now my largest single stock position (viewing TL's stock list as a custom ETF).
I think TDOC is heading towards bankruptcy. It was an interesting idea (remote HCP visits), but turned out not to be a legit business.
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