OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Near certain cut in Sept. Just 25 instead of 50 unless the next jobs report falls off the cliff (unlikely). Dual mandate and the Fed is now more concerned about unemployment than inflation.
But this all shows that the bearish hysteria of recession last week was truly moronic.
Ya, I think they will have to do it, just so as not to get stuck with an election day cut(I'm not real sure why that is considered political, are people going to vote for the incumbent because of a rate cut announcement?)
I used this site when digging into the initial claims a couple weeks ago.
A bunch of good charts here.
www.macrotrends.net
A bunch of good charts here.
Initial Jobless Claims Historical Chart
This interactive chart shows initial unemployment claims back to 1967.
www.macrotrends.net
Tom Lee showed data that explained the high claims from 2 weeks ago was solely due to the Hurricane in TX. I guess institutions and their algorithms didn't have such data. LOL!I used this site when digging into the initial claims a couple weeks ago.
A bunch of good charts here.
Initial Jobless Claims Historical Chart
This interactive chart shows initial unemployment claims back to 1967.
My theory was basing it off the prior two years which saw a run up into that last week of July/first week of Aug, and then a decline on the back side.
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Back to ATH in just one week. Aggressively buying Tech, META, AMZN, AVGO, CRWD, NIVDA, during the week. Added ETN, PRU, and V.
I bought pretty aggressively on the big Monday dip.
Took a bit out and put back into Savings.
Just bought some NJR. Slow and steady, but uptrend looks good and at the low end of the trend.
Yields fell when the market thought the economy was tanking and the fed was going to cut.
Those fears have cooled considerably.
Maybe a good time to buy up some bonds though.
Edit: Wait, where is this spike? 10 year below 4%. Barely above recent lows.
I was going to move some to cash but just reallocated to stocks that haven’t move as aggressively as other.
I moved less then 20% of what I put in last week back to cash.
Trying to show some level of prudence.
I'm a little light as well.
I'm heavy in SMCI but still a little in the red, even though I did well in adding as it dropped. I've traded this one very well actually.
TL dumped most energy stocks from his stock list last month. I think Williams is the only one remaining. Good timing.
As for SMCI, I'm still underwater, but bought the recent dip so only a little in the red.
Recession might happen next year. I will also go out on the limb and say that Harris wins the election. 80% of the time, a positive stock market 3 months before election means incumbents wins. The Arab Americans who tried to sway Biden opinion about Palestine finally said they will vote for Harris as well as the independents who made a decision closer to the election.
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Only if Powell decides to never cut. And even then I'm not sure it's a certainty.
Strong economy with a Fed that has a bunch of cuts in it's pocket is an excellent set up.
Great day, except for the BTC dip. But I caught it and started adding FBTC to my main retirement account. Got in under $50. Need to see if I should add anything else during extended.
If Harris wins and the R's take the Senate (both looking likely).....KABOOM! The market loves divided gov'ment. :)
Lots of ammo, even if they start moving to neutral in Sept. You never know about the future, but we really seem set-up for many more years of this bull market.
I ‘m fine with that and maybe Trump disappears in retirement
Positive 6 months out is better. Bush '41 lost with the economy officially turned around by Labor Day but sour on Memorial Day.
Strong retail numbers suggesting .5 cut is unlikely. .25 is still thought to be likely.
The "spike" was pretty modest though. 3.84 to 3.94 on the 10 year.
I just sold what I bought on the Monday dip. Made out with 8ish% gain.
This is likely a long hold for me. It’s in a tax deferred account so set it and forget it. Will add as appropriate. Just a modest position right now.
My add was pretty significant, so I'm back to a modest position as well.
On the fence as per my next move. Would like to add, but the general direction isn't great. Being down today while risk assets are flying isn't great. Might need to sell more before I look to add again.
Good short term trade there. I’ll say the same thing here that I said when it was chopping between $36 and $39k. None of it will matter when it’s higher,
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