OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[jtung230]

Strong retail numbers suggesting .5 cut is unlikely. .25 is still thought to be likely.

The "spike" was pretty modest though. 3.84 to 3.94 on the 10 year.

10 bps daily move is modest? Ok

 

[RU-05]

10 bps daily move is modest? Ok

Certainly not extreme. It dropped 20 bps in one day less then 2 weeks ago. It was up 10 bps in one day last week.

 

[RU205]

Strong retail numbers suggesting .5 cut is unlikely. .25 is still thought to be likely.

The "spike" was pretty modest though. 3.84 to 3.94 on the 10 year.

I would assume Powell would still cut .25?

 

[RU-05]

I would assume Powell would still cut .25?

That's the current consensus. But we shall see. If the economic numbers continue to come in stronger then expected? Maybe not.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I would assume Powell would still cut .25?

Yup, near 100% certainty. PCE is going to drop again at the end of the month, so unless the next jobs report on Sept 6th comes in with 400,000 new jobs or unemployment plummeting back under 4%, it's going to happen.

 

[RU-05]

VIX back down to 15.

The lows were 12-13. Another down VIX day tomorrow and I may buy some calls.

 

[T2Kplus20]

VIX back down to 15.

The lows were 12-13. Another down VIX day tomorrow and I may buy some calls.

I wonder how the SVIX did this week? I sold after a few days. I know it wasn't perfect.

 

[RU-05]

I wonder how the SVIX did this week? I sold after a few days. I know it wasn't perfect.

Up 30 something % to a scooch below $32. Off the bottom from last monday it's up 70%, Nasdaq and S&P are up 10ish% off those bottoms.

I wimped out and sold calls. Will be called away tomorrow. I made almost 20%. Could have been close to 50%.

I think buying options for the VIX itself, calls for protection(pretty cheap with high beta) in case of a vix spike, and puts when it happens, is the better play.