So looking at todays jobless claims number in context to historical numbers.
1)There does look to be a seasonal aspect to this. Something to do with the auto industry. This was the highest number since Aug last year. That obviously was not the precursor to a recession. Or even higher numbers. In 2022 jobless claims peaked July 30th with 229 claims and were back down below 200K in Sept. In 2023 they peaked Aug 5th with 258K claims, and were back to 200K by Oct.
2) Prior to 2014, jobless claim numbers below 300K were exceedingly rare. Just a handful of weeks each decade going back to about 1975. Is that due to change in policy? Maybe workforce participation?
3)There have been 7 recessions since 1972. There was a strong run up of jobless claims prior to 3 of those recessions, which on the surface one might say that doesn't make for much of an indicator. But of the 4 which did not see a jobless claim increase prior, one of those was Covid. Another the GFC. Another the oil embargo. And one quickly followed a previous recession in the early 80's. So, excluding the double dip, over the last 50 years years a steady rise in jobless claims, or a black swan event has preceded every recession.