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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

JBLU with a big day, on a nice little run, and looking for a breakout to a bigger move.
 
UNH had been holding that 550 support level which it had broken out from some months ago. Today down 5% and broken down through it.

If it were to drop enough, I’d think it could be interesting despite headline risk etc.
 
UNH had been holding that 550 support level which it had broken out from some months ago. Today down 5% and broken down through it.

If it were to drop enough, I’d think it could be interesting despite headline risk etc.
Artificial drops like this are for buying.
 
Artificial drops like this are for buying.

  • Shares of major health-care companies fell nearly 5% on Wednesday on concerns related to potential changes to their complex business models.
  • That includes UnitedHealth Group, Cigna and CVS Health, which operate three of the nation’s largest private health insurers and drug supply chain middlemen called pharmacy benefit managers.
  • The stock reaction on Wednesday appeared to be in response to new bipartisan legislation that aims to break up pharmacy benefit managers.

 
  • Shares of major health-care companies fell nearly 5% on Wednesday on concerns related to potential changes to their complex business models.
  • That includes UnitedHealth Group, Cigna and CVS Health, which operate three of the nation’s largest private health insurers and drug supply chain middlemen called pharmacy benefit managers.
  • The stock reaction on Wednesday appeared to be in response to new bipartisan legislation that aims to break up pharmacy benefit managers.

Meh. It's about the crazy shooter. CNBC sometimes jumps to conclusions too quickly. The PBM idea has been around for 5+ years.
 
ADBE - Buy the dip?
This was an amazing chart up until 2021. Better then AAPL, by a wide margin, if you can believe that, but it is well off those highs and is still expensive at 44x earnings and 11 x revs. That's rich for 10% growth.

I could definitely see a bounce but I don't see a great long term investment there, unless you think there is a turnaround which leads to significantly higher growth.
 
This was an amazing chart up until 2021. Better then AAPL, by a wide margin, if you can believe that, but it is well off those highs and is still expensive at 44x earnings and 11 x revs. That's rich for 10% growth.

I could definitely see a bounce but I don't see a great long term investment there, unless you think there is a turnaround which leads to significantly higher growth.
Very reasonable take. Made a few moves today. Sold/deleted LDOS from my custom stock basket and added PSTG. Added to a few biotech plays (tough game, don't recommend playing with these pre-revenue bastards, but that's what I do. LOL!).
 
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Without the details I think you and he could and should convert a sizable amount. I might consider going up to your marginal tax rate, depending on specifics.
Don't you guys have some sort of real estate tax cap for retirees in NJ that is based on income? If so, that can come into play. And, maybe Medicare premiums too?
 
Don't you guys have some sort of real estate tax cap for retirees in NJ that is based on income? If so, that can come into play. And, maybe Medicare premiums too?
As you know, converting tIRA dollars to a Roth IRA is a taxable event as the amount withdrawn from the tIRA is taxed as ordinary income. So yes, that is a factor in deciding to convert and, if so, how much to convert in a given year. Also, the conversion may result in hitting different IRMAA tiers that could result in higher Medicare costs so that is a factor too. NIIT could also come into play. So you’re right, lots of factors need to be considered in deciding to convert and how much. If one is in a low income bracket it is a much clearer decision in my view. With respect to NJ real estate taxes there was or is some reform (pending or done, in all honesty I haven’t turned to that yet). I believe if you hit an income level the relief is not granted but again, I haven’t spent time on that yet. My guess is the relief will not be significant for those with sizable assets, especially in thinking about e trade off of large conversions.
 
As you know, converting tIRA dollars to a Roth IRA is a taxable event as the amount withdrawn from the tIRA is taxed as ordinary income. So yes, that is a factor in deciding to convert and, if so, how much to convert in a given year. Also, the conversion may result in hitting different IRMAA tiers that could result in higher Medicare costs so that is a factor too. NIIT could also come into play. So you’re right, lots of factors need to be considered in deciding to convert and how much. If one is in a low income bracket it is a much clearer decision in my view. With respect to NJ real estate taxes there was or is some reform (pending or done, in all honesty I haven’t turned to that yet). I believe if you hit an income level the relief is not granted but again, I haven’t spent time on that yet. My guess is the relief will not be significant for those with sizable assets, especially in thinking about e trade off of large conversions.
Also if there’s any thought to withdrawing from the transfer to the ROTHIRA, there is a 5 year no touch rule on the transferred funds/equities or penalties will be incurred
 
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Two absolute stalwart holdings in the portfolio. Both are near “must-own” status for stock investors.
I need to buy Costco on the next dip or accept the fact I waited too long and just start a position.

And once again Elon using his money/power:

“The electric vehicle maker ticked 1% higher after Reuters reported that President-elect Donald Trump’s team recommended ending a rule for reporting car crashes. Reuters reported that Tesla has reported the most crashes under the program and that the requirement has been disliked by CEO Elon Musk.”

Sounds like a great idea for consumers. This is what Trump is thinking about?
 
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I need to buy Costco on the next dip or accept the fact I waited too long and just start a position.
I did the same thing earlier this year.....gave up waiting for a cheaper entry point and bought at $710'ish. Buy high, sell higher. :)

Also, hope everyone here owns AVGO/Broadcom!
 
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In the wild, people are choosing clean, quiet, driverless rides over Uber/Lyft. I think Google spins Waymo out in the next year or two. Uber also needs a new autonomy partner now that GM gave up on its Cruise program.

 
Why? They need more time/testing and vehicles. Google can provide all of that. Tesla and Google already have uber platforms. Uber will likely find a way to partner with them I’m sure.
The model for Waymo and TSLA is not to build and own the fleet directly. They want others to buy and manage the cars. UBER is needed to connect owners and customers. Sure, both companies can make the software, but wouldn't it be easier to just leverage the platform that most customers are already using?

Please note, super bullish on all 3 companies.....long holds for me.
 
The model for Waymo and TSLA is not to build and own the fleet directly. They want others to buy and manage the cars. UBER is needed to connect owners and customers. Sure, both companies can make the software, but wouldn't it be easier to just leverage the platform that most customers are already using?

Please note, super bullish on all 3 companies.....long holds for me.
Agreed, I think all three will scale together. Not sure who needs who to scale more. Wayno is testing it out- partnering with Uber for fleet management in some cities, managing their own in others (San Fran).

Tesla going direct to consumer is highest risk/reward. Following Turo closely to see how I think this plays out with fleet managers organically meeting the demand.
 
I think AVGO singlehandedly kept all of my account well into the green today. LOL! I have oversized exposure to the company via stock, funds, and ETFs.
 
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Make room Jensen Huang - Google wants a seat at the hype table

"Google has made an eyebrow-raising claim, saying that its new quantum chip may be tapping into parallel universes to achieve its results

Put another way, Google is suggesting that its chip is so fast that its computations may have taken place across parallel universes — a bombastic statement that unsurprisingly drew plenty of skepticism online...

For one, the calculation Willow was tasked to solve wasn't really anything useful to anybody....

"The particular calculation in question is to produce a random distribution," German physicist and science communicator Sabine Hossenfelder tweeted in response to Google's announcement. "The result of this calculation has no practical use."

"They use this particular problem because it has been formally proven (with some technical caveats) that the calculation is difficult to do on a conventional computer (because it uses a lot of entanglement)," she added. "That also allows them to say things like 'this would have taken a septillion years on a conventional computer' etc."

Willow is a 100-qubit, or quantum-bit, chip. Unlike conventional computers, which use zeroes and ones for a binary system, quantum computers rely on qubits, which can be on, off, or — counterintuitively — both thanks to quantum entanglement, the mysterious phenomenon that allows particles to influence each other's states even when separated by distance.

"It's exactly the same calculation that they did in 2019 on a circa 50 qubit chip," Hossenfelder wrote.

 
From The Man (Tom Lee):
  • We also want to reiterate the importance of Bitcoin to a portfolio. There were some notable developments in the past few days:
    – first, Blackrock in a white paper, suggests a 2% allocation is reasonable, this is consistent with our long-standing recommendation of at least 2% into Bitcoin
    – second, President-elect Donald Trump told CNBC on Friday plans to make a “Bitcoin reserve” similar to oil (see below)
  • Our Head of Digital Assets Strategy, Sean Farrell, believes that a US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve adds upside to Bitcoin as much as $500,000 in 2025. This is above our current base case of $250,000.
 
From The Man (Tom Lee):
  • We also want to reiterate the importance of Bitcoin to a portfolio. There were some notable developments in the past few days:
    – first, Blackrock in a white paper, suggests a 2% allocation is reasonable, this is consistent with our long-standing recommendation of at least 2% into Bitcoin
    – second, President-elect Donald Trump told CNBC on Friday plans to make a “Bitcoin reserve” similar to oil (see below)
  • Our Head of Digital Assets Strategy, Sean Farrell, believes that a US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve adds upside to Bitcoin as much as $500,000 in 2025. This is above our current base case of $250,000.


“Separately, the survey also found that while cryptocurrencies may be the hottest thing on Wall Street, that’s not true on Main Street, at least not yet. The survey shows just 13% of the public saying they own crypto and 15% saying it’s the best investment right now. That’s up 4 points since CNBC last asked the question in 2022, but it trails well behind real estate, stocks, gold and even savings accounts in the best-investment contest. Just 7% of the public say they would accept their wages in crypto, but another 22% said they might someday. Slightly more than 3 in 5, or more than 61%, say they will never accept their wages in crypto.

One-third of crypto owners are in the youngest cohort, ages 18 to 34. Just 9% are 65 and older.”
 

“Separately, the survey also found that while cryptocurrencies may be the hottest thing on Wall Street, that’s not true on Main Street, at least not yet. The survey shows just 13% of the public saying they own crypto and 15% saying it’s the best investment right now. That’s up 4 points since CNBC last asked the question in 2022, but it trails well behind real estate, stocks, gold and even savings accounts in the best-investment contest. Just 7% of the public say they would accept their wages in crypto, but another 22% said they might someday. Slightly more than 3 in 5, or more than 61%, say they will never accept their wages in crypto.

One-third of crypto owners are in the youngest cohort, ages 18 to 34. Just 9% are 65 and older.”
“The survey shows just 13% of the public saying they own crypto and 15% saying it’s the best investment right now”

2% of the respondents need to get on it
 
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“The survey shows just 13% of the public saying they own crypto and 15% saying it’s the best investment right now”

2% of the respondents need to get on it
That survey shows we are still in the very early stages of the revolution. :)
#HODL
 
From The Man (Tom Lee):
  • We also want to reiterate the importance of Bitcoin to a portfolio. There were some notable developments in the past few days:
    – first, Blackrock in a white paper, suggests a 2% allocation is reasonable, this is consistent with our long-standing recommendation of at least 2% into Bitcoin
    – second, President-elect Donald Trump told CNBC on Friday plans to make a “Bitcoin reserve” similar to oil (see below)
  • Our Head of Digital Assets Strategy, Sean Farrell, believes that a US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve adds upside to Bitcoin as much as $500,000 in 2025. This is above our current base case of $250,000.
I'm pretty conservative and it's even crossed my mind when it tanked a couple years ago (usually the time I'm more willing to look at something). I think the low was in 18000s maybe but I didn't make the move. I was looking for high singles to low doubles area and I probably would've pulled the trigger on a small amount.

Personally, I think it's bunk but that doesn't matter. It's psychology just like many other things in the market. If enough are willing to believe and back it, that's all that's needed. My goal is to try to make money and profit (in a fairly conservative way) not to prove whether it's bunk or not. I don't know that my psychology would let me buy it on the wave it's on now though. It would have to go through another pullback of some sort for me to consider it. BTC/ETH would be the only 2 I'd touch though (that's what my conservative bent would allow on crypto lol).
 
I'm pretty conservative and it's even crossed my mind when it tanked a couple years ago (usually the time I'm more willing to look at something). I think the low was in 18000s maybe but I didn't make the move. I was looking for high singles to low doubles area and I probably would've pulled the trigger on a small amount.

Personally, I think it's bunk but that doesn't matter. It's psychology just like many other things in the market. If enough are willing to believe and back it, that's all that's needed. My goal is to try to make money and profit (in a fairly conservative way) not to prove whether it's bunk or not. I don't know that my psychology would let me buy it on the wave it's on now though. It would have to go through another pullback of some sort for me to consider it. BTC/ETH would be the only 2 I'd touch though (that's what my conservative bent would allow on crypto lol).
BTC is in a class of its own. No doubt.
ETH and SOL are also legit L1 blockchains and not going anywhere.

That's all I would recommend to crypto-novice investors. I play around with a few others with SUI being the next L1 to possibly join that group. SUI is built and run by the old Facebook/Meta crew before the SEC told Zuck to pull the plug on Project Libra. So, they left the company and started their own thing.
 
Finally decided to buy NKE prior to Thursday's earning. Just a 1/2 position. Ackman bought a ton, so maybe he knows something. :)

Was considering leap calls for NKE, but they were too expensive at this time. Probably better to just buy shares and hold for a while.
 
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