The Linkster has BA as her top 2025 pick. The chart looks good in the short term.
Think im going to follow her in.
Think im going to follow her in.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Of course UNH is worth 32x earnings because its unfettered monopoly power in healthcare will continue in perpetuity…
or not.
This stuff has to settle to some degree first and plateau for a bit but I think the company itself is still fine whenever that happens.
From the article:
Shares in major healthcare companies fell yesterday after president-elect Donald Trump made comments that he wanted to “knock out” prescription drug industry middlemen. The fall makes this yet another week since the killing of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson that the business practices of companies that operate America’s private healthcare system have come under increased scrutiny.
Speaking to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago country club in Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday, Trump described a dinner he and his Health and Human Services Department head nominee, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., had with leaders from Eli Lilly and Pfizer. He then went on to reference what are known as prescription drug middlemen, reports Bloomberg.
“We have a thing called the middleman,” Trump said. “You know the middleman, right? The horrible middleman that makes more money frankly than the drug companies, and they don’t do anything except they’re a middleman,” he said. “We’re going to knock out the middleman.”
From the article:
Shares in major healthcare companies fell yesterday after president-elect Donald Trump made comments that he wanted to “knock out” prescription drug industry middlemen. The fall makes this yet another week since the killing of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson that the business practices of companies that operate America’s private healthcare system have come under increased scrutiny.
Speaking to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago country club in Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday, Trump described a dinner he and his Health and Human Services Department head nominee, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., had with leaders from Eli Lilly and Pfizer. He then went on to reference what are known as prescription drug middlemen, reports Bloomberg.
“We have a thing called the middleman,” Trump said. “You know the middleman, right? The horrible middleman that makes more money frankly than the drug companies, and they don’t do anything except they’re a middleman,” he said. “We’re going to knock out the middleman.”
Sure. Knock out that whole layer of megaprofit takers while you're at it: the health insurance industry.
Interesting stat, no clue what to make of it. The Dow Jones has had it's 9th straight losing day today. The longest such streak since 1978 when Jimmy Carter was in office.
It's all been relatively minor, only adds up to about 3% in those 9 days... but a random stat. Almost all driven by UNH.
It's all been relatively minor, only adds up to about 3% in those 9 days... but a random stat. Almost all driven by UNH.
The weighting methodology of the DJIA is idiotic and thus UNH’s stock going down makes it look like the entire economy is weakening dramatically when in fact if UNH’s stock price went all the way down to zero American consumers would actually be absolutely delighted once they got used to the idea.
One of my biggest positions. It's down a bit from the recent ATH pump, but still up +146% YTD. Amazing company.
Forgot to mention, I bought some NUKK yesterday prior to the close. :)
Perhaps a new meme stock?
DVN, OXY, SLB.....a bunch of high-profile energy companies have been dogs. Been reading that energy companies focusing on nat gas is the right play over the next few years, not the oil companies.
Nissans quality really fell over the last decade. They were good cars back 20+ years ago. This is interesting news.
They made a comeback when Carlos Ghosn was running things and then have gone downhill since. Of course his whole story is a weird one full of craziness, including being smuggled out of the country in an instrument case or something lol. Something you'd expect on Netflix's The Diplomat haha.
If Trump can pull this off it will be good for a lot of people. But the insurance industry has a very strong lobby in DC. They funnel a lot of money to all politicians (Rep, Dem, Indy).
Both Lilly and Pfizer have very strong lobby’s as well. Obviously they were able to get a meeting with Trump fairly quickly. We should all be watching this closely in the coming years, not only as investors but as consumers (and for those of us that work in Pharma in NJ).
Technically, it's less about insurance companies per say, but rather the PBMs running shit behind the scenes. However, most of the big PBMs were bought by insurance companies, so that's the problem.
Agreed. The PBMs are a mess. They were supposed to help lower costs and improve care but we have a for profit healthcare industry so everyone needs to make money and the consumer pays more.
I've been on the commercial side of pharma/biotech for 25 years. I'm still not really sure what PBMs do and why they are needed. They just seem to do the dirty work that insurance companies are afraid to do themselves.
It’s like any industry when companies acquire or merge with another company. I was in the broadcasting industry where Cable, Radio and Television stations were profitable and then deregulation occurred. The private equity firms provide the capital and the stations go to the highest bidders. The stations before they are brought have already cut cost as much as possible and the acquirers even cut more trying to increase profits. Some of the station groups sold 2-3 times with the price increasing each time. Afterward, they cry that they can’t make enough profit and it’s because they pay too much. I hear it’s same in the hospital industry with acquisitions and to make profits they have to come up with new ideas to increase revenue.
I saw an article recently where hospitals and doctors are the highest cost and drugs are on the lower pole. They tried to cut doctor’s compensation before but it went nowhere. Who’s going to accept being paid less? Hospitals are inefficient in rural locations so are we going to cut them out? The federal government is the only one that can force doctors and hospitals to accept lower payments but there too much resistance.
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Yeah, drugs/medications account for under 10% of all HC spend (and it directly lowers the spend of other categories).
Good breakdown of costs and who pays for it. Data from 2022:
Health Spending by Type of Service or Product:
- Hospital Care (30% share): Spending for hospital care services increased 2.2% in 2022 to reach $1.4 trillion; however, this was a slower growth rate compared to 4.5% that was experienced in 2021. The slower growth in 2022 reflected a slowdown in spending for hospital care by private health insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid and by a decline in other private revenues. Slower growth in hospital prices and a decline in hospital days and discharges contributed to the lower growth in 2022.
- Physician and Clinical Services (20% share): Spending on physician and clinical services increased 2.7% to $8,84.9 billion in 2022, slower than the increase of 5.3% in 2021. Spending growth for physician and clinical services slowed in 2022 for the major payers — Medicare, Medicaid, private health insurance, and out-of-pocket. Slower growth in the use of services and in physician prices contributed to the slower growth in 2022.
- Retail Prescription Drugs (9% share): Retail prescription drug spending increased 8.4% to $405.9 billion in 2022, a faster rate than in 2021 when spending increased by 6.8%. Medicare and out-of-pocket spending growth for retail prescription drugs accelerated, while Medicaid and private health insurance spending growth slowed. The faster growth in 2022 was influenced by faster growth in the number of prescriptions dispensed and an increase in retail prescription drug prices (1.2% in 2022) after four consecutive years of decline.
- Other Health, Residential, and Personal Care Services (6% share): This category includes expenditures for medical services that are generally delivered by providers in non-traditional settings, such as schools, community centers, and the workplace, as well as by ambulance providers and residential mental health and substance abuse facilities. Spending for other health, residential, and personal care services grew 9.7% in 2022 to $246.5 billion, accelerating from 6.7% growth in 2021. The faster growth in 2022 was driven primarily by an acceleration in spending for Medicaid home and community-based waivers.
- Nursing Care Facilities and Continuing Care Retirement Communities (4% share): Spending for services provided at freestanding nursing care facilities and continuing care retirement communities rose in 2022 by 5.6% to $191.3 billion, compared to a decline of 7.8% in 2021. Medicaid, out-of-pocket, and Medicare account for over three quarters of total payments to these facilities and, in 2022, spending for these payers had strong growth following low growth or reduced spending in 2021.
- Dental Services (4% share): Spending for dental services increased just 0.3% in 2022 to $165.3 billion following much faster growth of 18.2% in 2021. The slowdown was driven by slower growth for all the major payers, but particularly for out-of-pocket and private health insurance, as well as a decline in federal funding from Paycheck Protection Program loans and the Provider Relief Fund.
- Home Health Care (3% share): Spending for services provided by freestanding home health care agencies increased 6.0% in 2022 to $132.9 billion, accelerating from growth of 0.3% in 2021. Private health insurance, out-of-pocket, and Medicaid home health spending contributed to the faster growth, while Medicare spending growth for home health care services slowed.
- Other Professional Services (3% share): Spending for other professional services includes establishments of independent health practitioners (except physicians and dentists) that primarily provide services, such as physical therapy, optometry, podiatry, or chiropractic medicine. Spending for other professional services reached $140.6 billion in 2022 and increased 5.1%, a slower rate of growth compared to 13.2% in 2021. The slowdown was driven by slower growth in Medicare, private health insurance, and out-of-pocket spending, coupled with reduced supplemental COVID-relief funding.
- Other Non-durable Medical Products (3% share): Retail spending for other non-durable medical products, such as over-the-counter medicines, medical instruments, and surgical dressings, increased 8.5% to $115.4 billion in 2022, slower than in 2021 when spending increased 12.3%. Out-of-pocket spending accounted for 98% of total spending for other non-durable medical products in 2022.
- Durable Medical Equipment (2% share): Retail spending for durable medical equipment, which includes items such as contact lenses, eyeglasses, and hearing aids, increased 5.1% in 2022 to $67.1 billion, following much faster growth of 18.6% in 2021. The slowdown in 2022 was driven by slower growth in out-of-pocket and private health insurance spending.
Health Spending by Major Sources of Funds:
- Private Health Insurance (29% share): Private health insurance spending increased by 5.9% in 2022 (to $1.3 trillion), which was slightly slower than the increase of 6.3% in 2021. For hospital care, physician and clinical services, and dental services, private health insurance expenditures grew more slowly in 2022, following stronger growth in 2021. Private health insurance enrollment increased 1.5%, or 2.9 million individuals, in 2022 — the fastest increase since 2015.
- Medicare (21% share): Medicare spending increased 5.9% to reach $944.3 billion in 2022, a slower increase than in 2022 when Medicare spending increased 7.2%. Medicare fee-for-service expenditures declined by 1.9% in 2022, while Medicare private health plan spending (accounting for 50% of total Medicare spending) increased 15.1%. Total Medicare enrollment increased 1.9% in 2022 compared to growth of 1.7% in 2021 (or by 1.2 million individuals), with enrollment in Medicare private plans increasing 8.5% and fee-for-service enrollment declining 3.0%.
- Medicaid (18% share): Medicaid spending increased 9.6% to $805.7 billion in 2022, the third consecutive year of growth above 9%. Medicaid enrollment grew 7.2% in 2022 after increasing 11.1% in 2021 and 4.6% in 2020. This amounts to about 18 million individuals gaining Medicaid coverage between 2019 and 2022. Faster Medicaid enrollment growth since 2019 reflects the newly enrolled as well as the continuous enrollment requirement of the Families First Coronavirus Response Act that took effect on March 18, 2020 and ended on March 31, 2023. Federal Medicaid spending increased 10.8% and state Medicaid spending increased 6.6% in 2022, with the federal government’s share of total Medicaid spending reaching 71% in 2022.
- Out-of-Pocket (11% share): Total out-of-pocket spending increased by 6.6% in 2022 to $471.4 billion, slowing from growth of 11.0% in 2021. Dental services, durable medical equipment, and physician and clinical services, which collectively accounted for 34% of all out-of-pocket spending in 2022, were the main contributors to the slower growth in 2022.
National Health Expenditures 2022 Highlights | CMS
U.S. health care spending grew 4.1% to reach $4.5 trillion in 2022, faster than the increase of 3.2% in 2021, but much slower than the rate of 10.6% in 2020. The growth in 2022 reflected strong growth in Medicaid and private health insurance spending that was somewhat offset by continued...
Corporate buying and private equity involvement need to be challenged.
Bouncing a little heading into the close.
I'm adding a little, but my E-trade is struggling. I'm guessing there is a rush to the keyboard.
You really look for a big bad scary correction behind every corner? ATHs within a few weeks. Bull market is strong and the Feds are still cutting.
Bought SQ (as per Josh B) and looking to add to several positions in extended. Was hoping for BA to dip more.
NKE has a pretty strong support in the high 60s low 70s area so you're not too far above that. I don't think it's a bad place to enter. It's dancing around a long term MA which it hasn't sniffed in probably 15 years but it's been holding the last 6 months.
I think tariffs could be an issue and then competition in China and domestically both stealing share.
If so works for me. I don’t like buying on big waves, prefer when the wave comes crashing down and then take a look at the aftermath.
I think the reason for this move is it looks like people are predicting fewer cuts next year. Two instead of four.
Sure, but earnings will rule the day for stock prices and the economy is strong. Also, one soft jobs report and the Feds will be back to 4 cuts in 2025.
Yes. Hawkish Fed speak and maybe just one cut in '25. A resurgence of inflation. Hypervaluations of equities. The disruptive nature or posturing of the incoming administration. A perfect storm brewing?
Sold a third of my position on that 15% move, added back a half of what I sold today.
Except that the economy continues to be very strong. And pretty much all of the above is either because of the strong economy, or helps the economy continue upward.
I've been keeping RIVN as a long term hold.... hoping they really blow up and become a mini-Tesla...
but maybe I should be doing a little more trading on ups/downs.
I read private equity are now buying businesses like plumbers and electricians in a locality and raising prices to pay for the capital infusion similar to them increasing single homes prices. Crazy.
Found an article
Private Equity Is Taking On The Skilled Trades
Private equity firms are targeting HVAC, plumbing, and electrical companies for consolidation, reshaping the skilled trades landscape. Here's how it's impacting the industry.
www.forbes.com
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