The stock market is going to force Trump to stop talking about tariffs. Either he bend or expect a big correction soon. I was going to reduce my exposure until he reduce his tariff plans. Tariffs will definitely increase inflation.
I read private equity are now buying businesses like plumbers and electricians in a locality and raising prices to pay for the capital infusion similar to them increasing single homes prices. Crazy.
Found an article
Private Equity Is Taking On The Skilled Trades
Private equity firms are targeting HVAC, plumbing, and electrical companies for consolidation, reshaping the skilled trades landscape. Here's how it's impacting the industry.www.forbes.com
It’s already happening with a million dollar buyout and they continue with their same business but with huge price increases to pay for the million dollar infusion. The government needs to stop it with regulations. It’s those dam consultants from Ivy Leagues who can’t come up with any better ideas.
We shall see. Trump likes to talk. Let's worry about things when they happen. See the quote in my sig below:
100%…I know owners of both trades/businesses and it’s like they hit the lottery. PE wants cash flow and are piecing together what in some localities start to look like monopolies.
I'm well in the red in the position and added when it was down near its lows, so when it ran up to $18 in the summer it was a pretty big position for me, I should have trimmed back then, given I had added when it was significantly lower and the position was as big as it was.
Trump did say he wanted to control the interest rate so he might fire Powell,(make it unbearable for Powell to stay) Powell said he’s staying and then lower the interest rate even if inflation goes up. No matter the scenario, I did lighten up on stock the last couple of weeks but now wish I moved more over to cash. There were some big gains since November.
The stock market is one of Trump's top priorities (maybe the most important). I'm sure his policies and appointment decisions will reflect this. Steady as you go.
That’s why he will bend because he’ll be watching the market. I think he will still have targeted tariffs not blanket tariffs but will be more careful especially with a 15-20% correction. Actually I heard the bond market will keep him honest.
I agree on the tariffs being more selective and targeted. I'm sure there will be threats and bluster, but if we end up with better trade agreements, I'm fine with buying temporary dips! :)
What prevents them from leaving and starting up a new shop? Doesn’t make sense because there is no exit.
There’s usually a timed and geographic non compete clause in these acquisitions
How do you monetize if the real asset can leave after a specific amount time of that can be your direct competitor?
The ones I’ve seen are 5 year non competes. So you buy the business, customer base, seo/web footprint, etc and try to keep your customers happy and grow.
That’s why i doubt PE would do it. A monopoly for 5 years isn’t going to work. I wanted to invest in an urgent care but realized that you have to be a doctor to make it work.
PE was the buyer in the scenarios I’m talking about. It’s medical/behavioral health, so not exactly what was talked about, but similar models.
A lot of these blue-collar business owners are happy to cash-out and aren’t looking to rebuild once their non-compete expires. They are buying houses down the Jersey shore and enjoying life. These guys grinded for most of their lives and experienced serious highs and lows. PE is rolling up the businesses and centralizing back-office and operations. In the long run it’s very bad for consumers.
markets.businessinsider.com
Well, back to $43 and trading has been halted. Also, a little over 3 million shares outstanding, but 10 day average trades is 22 million. That’s insane turnoverNUKK is up 4700% in 2 days. In one month went from $1.30 to over $70. Makes GME look like a joke.
A tiny fintech stock is up 4,700% in 2 days after taking a stake in a company involved with Israel's Iron Dome missile system
Fintech firm Nukkleus saw its market cap jump from about $3 million to $125 million in just two days.
There is a lot of whacky stuff going on in the market and I have to believe AI is in play. If AI will supposedly be able to cure diseases, then predicting or manipulating the stock market is child’s play for an AI Bot. Just like I’m sure there are AI Bots that are crushing it in online sports betting. That’s why I sold my entire DraftKings position after the last mediocre earnings report. Plug in 100 years of sports data into an AI program and I have to imagine the odds of winning are increased on a scale we can’t imagine.
Really? You think everyone is content with one payday when they can get 2. Sorry, there is no exit for PE. Makes zero sense.
Hate to tell you it’s happening everywhere. I’m not suggesting it’s a PE epidemic. But my Mom’s pool guy just sold his company in SoCal to a group of investors. Car washes are insanely hot. HVAC companies too. I think you have a different (perhaps wrong) view of the blue-collar folks that built and run many of these small businesses. If you built a plumbing company over the course of 25 years and are now in your 50s you think they want to start over and build another company? How old do you think these business owners are? On the PE side it’s a no brainer because they come in and optimize systems, drive efficiencies, and roll-up several to get economies of scale.
Like i said locally here in costal Monmouth county it is not happening.Why private equity is buying businesses in the skilled trades
Private equity firms are showing particular interest in HVAC, plumbing and electrical, said Te-Ping Chen with the Wall Street Journal.www.marketplace.org
You may not even realize it although I don’t know if there are certain regions targeted more than others.
www.zerohedge.com
Nah. Id realize it.You may not even realize it although I don’t know if there are certain regions targeted more than others.
Private Equity Firms Are Now Acquiring Skilled Trade Small Businesses | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
You sound like you deal with owners, but if not a lot of the same owners/employees stay on so to the public everything seems the same.
hmm.. price-fixing on the way?You may not even realize it although I don’t know if there are certain regions targeted more than others.
Private Equity Firms Are Now Acquiring Skilled Trade Small Businesses | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Yea I’ve heard some similar commentary and maybe but 3% off isn’t much of anything.
I believe you that people are buying these businesses but it’s not PE. The buyers are syndicators. They pool retail investors to make these purchases and charge a fee to do it. It’s a scam. Yes, people will start a new business at 50. You don’t understand entrepreneurs. They are grinders and always looking to make money.
I know a bunch of people like that and you’re right they’re often talking about business opportunities. But I don’t know if the profile of some of these business owners are the same as that.
NKE currently up 10% after the ER. Let’s see if it holds if they give guidance. They withheld it when the new CEO took over.
Few days now where the market weakened into the close. Wouldn’t say for sure selling is over yet.
I guess you didn’t bother to read the articles. We are not talking about PE firms like TPG or Bain. And you think a 50 something year old plumber that slaved for 25 years soldering copper pipes and building his business wants to sell out only to then start another plumbing business? Come on let’s be realistic here. There is a better chance that retired plumber that sells out opens a coffee shop than open a brand new competing plumbing business.
