ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Stock and Investment Talk

There's usually a few 25-30% drawdowns in its bull cycle. I'm wondering if we are now in an era where that downside volatility is capped, presumably from the addition of the EFT volume.
I keep waiting for a meaningful drawdown to add to my BTC position, but we are only getting "mini-dips".
 
Sell off deepens.

Im holding for now
Bunch of small moves:
Sold = GEV (out at $345), Block/XYZ, and AMD
New position = TSM
Adds = PWR, PSTG, ORCL, TDG and a few others just to keep preferred allocations in my stock basket

Biggest move was buying NVDA Jun $120 calls. I was going to add shares to my position, but it's still very large with a super low CB (in the $40s). So, I went with calls for something different.

Hope everyone did well today! :)
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
market is still dropping…this is so stupid
Markets don’t go straight up. We’ve had a huge two year run, and corrections, many that have been much much greater than this, happen all the time. The stocks that dropped the most, were generally stocks that experienced ridiculous gains over the last few months (or longer).
 
Markets don’t go straight up. We’ve had a huge two year run, and corrections, many that have been much much greater than this, happen all the time. The stocks that dropped the most, were generally stocks that experienced ridiculous gains over the last few months (or longer).
Quick bear question, have you ever bought/traded gold futures? I assume you have gold up the wahzoo. We have a bunch of new cash and considering GLD or GLD futures as an alternative to the 4% money market rate. Lots of bullish forecasts on gold.

And yes, markets can go up or down, which is totally okay and healthy. :)
 
Quick bear question, have you ever bought/traded gold futures? I assume you have gold up the wahzoo. We have a bunch of new cash and considering GLD or GLD futures as an alternative to the 4% money market rate. Lots of bullish forecasts on gold.

And yes, markets can go up or down, which is totally okay and healthy. :)
Never owned gold; I invest instruments and companies that cash flow (except for my fun gamble on a bitcoin ETF that I purchased last January.l). I’m not a bear, but I don’t generally hold on to stocks where the valuation looks excessive, and buy when everyone else is selling (example, sold NVDA last week at $146 and bought yesterday at $123; and a small amount of GEV at $322 this morning).
 
Last edited:
Never owned gold; I invest instruments and companies that cash flow (except for my fun gamble on a bitcoin ETF that I purchased last January.l). I’m not a bear, but I don’t generally hold on to stocks where the valuation looks excessive, and buy when everyone else is selling (example, sold NVDA last week at $146 and bought yesterday at $123; and GEV at $322 this morning).
Good to see you are having fun with BTC. GEV's fwd PE is still about 100. Excessive? :)
I stepped out of GEV yesterday for now, made a lot, happy to jump back in sometime soon. Maybe calls? Great company, but definitely a narrative stock right now. Still own a few other power infrastructure plays since our needs will only increase in the future.
 
Good to see you are having fun with BTC. GEV's fwd PE is still about 100. Excessive? :)
I stepped out of GEV yesterday for now, made a lot, happy to jump back in sometime soon. Maybe calls? Great company, but definitely a narrative stock right now. Still own a few other power infrastructure plays since our needs will only increase in the future.
 
Wasn’t so bad. Just a couple of days ago market was at highs so it only took back some of the gains. I did have NVDA and AVGO which was hit worse than NVDA but a good portion was offset with my BD (held for over 6 months to finally recovered) and UNH. Still down but still reasonable and expect more recovery in a week.
 
320-340s area has some support and the area it based for a couple months, whether it holds or not is a different story. 50DMA is at 350 as well. PE is fairly rich too around 90 so you'd expect some of that to come out.

I'm skeptical energy consumption will be so much less on this Chinese news. When it comes out from a more reliable source, I'd believe it.

There is some engineering behind the energy reduction.'
Western AI development was writing every number with 32 decimal places and China was using eight.
Results were practically the same but with big reduction in resources needed.
US AI is a truck and Chinese AI is a sports car.
China was focused on the tasks and US focused on hype
Some fault US algo and code geeks not going into engineering but bubble construction on Wall Street.

Chris Martenson (not a tech guy but Duke PhD and Cornel MBA for the credentialists) said the president's AI presentation with Ellison and other techs was "weird" and that it was probably rushed because they knew the Chinese news coming. That made more sense than a potential vaccine for cancer on day 2 of new admin.

Nvidia is used to inflating bubbles over tech and they are used to the balloon popping . They will be back with more hardware and unicorns. Their stuff isn't bad but they aren't selling the Bugattis they act like they have . When Jensen has his black motorcycle jacket on watch out.

Many market experts dont really get the under the hood stuff and CM does good here


 
Wasn’t so bad. Just a couple of days ago market was at highs so it only took back some of the gains. I did have NVDA and AVGO which was hit worse than NVDA but a good portion was offset with my BD (held for over 6 months to finally recovered) and UNH. Still down but still reasonable and expect more recovery in a week.
My CRM, META and MSFT increases is greater than the losses from NVDA and AVGO. After the close today, with MSFT, META, IBM and TSLA earnings coming out there will some big fireworks.

Sold the few Tesla shares I held and about 30% of MSFT, CRM, and META today giving me the ability to buy back if they drop after earnings.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: RU205
Good to see you are having fun with BTC. GEV's fwd PE is still about 100. Excessive? :)
I stepped out of GEV yesterday for now, made a lot, happy to jump back in sometime soon. Maybe calls? Great company, but definitely a narrative stock right now. Still own a few other power infrastructure plays since our needs will only increase in the future.
Not a GEV investor, and yes, the price is high. I only bought it as a quick trade, which I rarely do. I just wanted to gamble on the panic, and risked catching a falling knife. It worked out, and just sold for an intraday gain of 8.25%…. Couldn’t give that up.
 
Not a GEV investor, and yes, the price is high. I only bought it as a quick trade, which I rarely do. I just wanted to gamble on the panic, and risked catching a falling knife. It worked out, and just sold for an intraday gain of 8.25%…. Couldn’t give that up.
So far it’s held that level of support I mentioned and still sitting in the vicinity.
 
Have owned CVX for over 30 years, getting in at around $13. Dividend in the 3.5% - 4.5% range for most of that time. Sometimes a case can be made for buy and hold.
So many ways to make money. Sorry for the people that can’t accumulate enough to invest.
 
Not a GEV investor, and yes, the price is high. I only bought it as a quick trade, which I rarely do. I just wanted to gamble on the panic, and risked catching a falling knife. It worked out, and just sold for an intraday gain of 8.25%…. Couldn’t give that up.
Made a quick 35% on yesterday's NVDA calls. I wish I had the guts to buy calls with a shorter expiration date, but we all do what we are comfortable with! LOL.
 
So many ways to make money. Sorry for the people that can’t accumulate enough to invest.

I know it's tough, and a lot of folks are living paycheck to paycheck. But that was a $1300. investment that now pays a $6.50 annual dividend (half the purchase price) and is worth roughly $15,000. So around that time I bought a car. Forgo the Beemer and loan payments and bought a Saturn SL2 which I had for 17 years and 205,000 miles. Price difference was a lot more than $1300.
 
  • Like
Reactions: redking and RU-05
Have owned CVX for over 30 years, getting in at around $13. Dividend in the 3.5% - 4.5% range for most of that time. Sometimes a case can be made for buy and hold.
Nice! I've been holding WMT around the same length of time. I worked there in the mid 90's and was enrolled in there employee stock purchase plan. I've held 90% of it ever since. Sadly I didn't reinvest the dividends the first 12-15 years or so because I didn't know I could. Now I definitely do.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
Nice! I've been holding WMT around the same length of time. I worked there in the mid 90's and was enrolled in there employee stock purchase plan. I've held 90% of it ever since. Sadly I didn't reinvest the dividends the first 12-15 years or so because I didn't know I could. Now I definitely do.
Wow, nice hold! Big money with WMT. Been wanting to buy that one for a long time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Postman_1
One of better tech review has basic DeepSeek on a $70 mini pc originally designed for third world users.
This video has legs and will get around

One commenter hits it

"Hugely impressed. This proves the point that OpenAi was essentially over charging the world for AI products."

OpenAI's nightmare: DeepSeek R1 on a Raspberry Pi
 
Last edited:
@T2Kplus20 , HUMA got FDA approval for its bioengineered blood vessel replacements for use in combat, traumatic injuries and dialysis patients amongst other uses. It has a combined buy rating of 1.29 (1=strong buy, 5=sell). What say you?
 
@T2Kplus20 , HUMA got FDA approval for its bioengineered blood vessel replacements for use in combat, traumatic injuries and dialysis patients amongst other uses. It has a combined buy rating of 1.29 (1=strong buy, 5=sell). What say you?
HUMA is part of my small-biotech basket and I'm holding for now. I think they are working to expand the market and gain broader indications. So, I'm optimistic, but like with all such companies the ride will be bumpy with possible dilution/raises required for the future.

Please note, my biotech basket is for Home Runs. I'm waiting for these companies to get acquired or blow-up on their own. You may want to trade them a bit more. Just different perspectives.

My current basket: INMB, HUMA, RNA, VYGR, PRME, and VKTX. And I have a very long watchlist! :)
 
  • Like
Reactions: ScarletNut
The Compound tackles the Deep Seek impact (first half of the show) with tech journalist Kantrowitz as guest.



Great show as always.

Interesting point referenced by Josh, AAPL was up Monday because the company has NOT invested billions in AI. Which is on brand for the company.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
The Compound tackles the Deep Seek impact (first half of the show) with tech journalist Kantrowitz as guest.



Great show as always.

Interesting point referenced by Josh, AAPL was up Monday because the company has NOT invested billions in AI. Which is on brand for the company.
Hoping to watch this one during lunch. This was another good take (just ignore Guy and Dan):

 
The Compound tackles the Deep Seek impact (first half of the show) with tech journalist Kantrowitz as guest.



Great show as always.

Interesting point referenced by Josh, AAPL was up Monday because the company has NOT invested billions in AI. Which is on brand for the company.
Lots of earning today, including WOLF. Is it worth some lottery ticket weekly calls betting on a pop? Seems like everyone thinks WOLF is on the verge of bankruptcy. Good set-up for a dead cat bounce?
@RUinPinehurst - any thoughts on today's report?
 
Lots of earning today, including WOLF. Is it worth some lottery ticket weekly calls betting on a pop? Seems like everyone thinks WOLF is on the verge of bankruptcy. Good set-up for a dead cat bounce?
@RUinPinehurst - any thoughts on today's report?
Funny I was just looking at their chart and saw today was earnings.

Kind of looks like it wants to reverse, just needs some good news.

Is their actually "bankruptcy" calls out there? I would think they could still sell stock to raise money.

Edit: Oh Boy. Stock reaction last 4 qtr's. Down 13.6%. Down 9.7%. Down 5%. Down 39%.

That is a screaming buy.
 
Funny I was just looking at their chart and saw today was earnings.

Kind of looks like it wants to reverse, just needs some good news.

Is their actually "bankruptcy" calls out there? I would think they could still sell stock to raise money.

Edit: Oh Boy. Stock reaction last 4 qtr's. Down 13.6%. Down 9.7%. Down 5%. Down 39%.

That is a screaming buy.
So that means it's due to go up after earnings! Just like in roulette.....too many blacks in a row means a red is next, right? :)

I don't think there has been outright calls for bankruptcy yet, just many assuming this is where the company is heading due to its debt.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
Stephanie Link just sold her FCX. I own it, one of my losers I talked about recently. It does look to be near a bounceable low, and it is up today, so I'm hoping to get a bounce and then get out.

Link may not present as well as others, but she is one of the best imo in terms of analyzing businesses.
 
Stephanie Link just sold her FCX. I own it, one of my losers I talked about recently. It does look to be near a bounceable low, and it is up today, so I'm hoping to get a bounce and then get out.

Link may not present as well as others, but she is one of the best imo in terms of analyzing businesses.
Link was pushing ETN yesterday. Perhaps as a cheaper alternative to GEV. After JB, she is the next one I stop and listen to.
 
MSFT will drop tomorrow after an OK but “meh” quarter is announced later today if I had to guess based on last quarter’s price action. AI party is getting interesting now that China has crashed it but nobody has called in a noise complaint to the cops yet. Still think Google’s dominant hold on Search will be a thing of the past…
…someday.
 

 

Open AI- regularly obtains data in an unlawful manner.

Also Open AI- hey, you took our data in an unlawful manner
 

Time for some fake surprise. Why is Wall Street so gullible?

6uT.gif
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT