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OT: Three men frozen in the backyard after KC game

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Here is the issue I posted the article for-

Crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, according to new FBI data that contradicts a widespread national perception that law-breaking and violence are on the rise.

A Gallup poll released this month found that 77% of Americans believe crime rates are worsening, but they are mistaken, the new FBI data and other statistics show.


The FBI data, which compares crime rates in the third quarter of 2023 to the same period last year, found that violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3% to what would be its lowest level since 1961, according to criminologist Jeff Asher, who analyzed the FBI numbers.

Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded, Asher found, and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.

Yet 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising, the Gallup survey shows.

“I think we’ve been conditioned, and we have no way of countering the idea” that crime is rising,” Asher said. “It’s just an overwhelming number of news media stories and viral videos — I have to believe that social media is playing a role.”
Perception and reality have never been further apart than in today's world and politics, helped along by conspiracy theorists and others running down the reliability of news they disagree with. Another bad road to be going down.
 
Perception and reality have never been further apart than in today's world and politics, helped along by conspiracy theorists and others running down the reliability of news they disagree with. Another bad road to be going down.
Perhaps, but I'd argue politicians and media are more the blame than those two.
 
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This discussion reminds me of a scene in the original Death Wish. One of Bronson's co workers cites that the city is safer since the vigilante was around. Bronson tells him that if crime is going down so much maybe you should take a walk on Columbus Ave at night. His friend declines
 
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I went into Manhattan when I was back last summer and I have never felt more unsafe there in my life. This includes the late 60s and 70s ("Taxi Driver" days) when I was hanging out in mid town and The Village. Maybe it was the stupidity of youth but I wasn't overly concerned about my safety. Last summer I couldn't wait to get off the streets.
 
I went into Manhattan when I was back last summer and I have never felt more unsafe there in my life. This includes the late 60s and 70s ("Taxi Driver" days) when I was hanging out in mid town and The Village. Maybe it was the stupidity of youth but I wasn't overly concerned about my safety. Last summer I couldn't wait to get off the streets.
What time of day? NYC is fine lol. I'm there a lot and never felt unsafe especially in midtown or the village.
 
It was mid town early afternoon.
Do you really think that the crime situation in NYC is fine or am I misreading what you're saying?
We think we know NY from the news but my nephew and his wife aren’t afraid of living there even with their new baby. I see everyone scared of Chicago, SF, Seattle, Los Angeles and NY now. I would be scared living in Vietnam and Thailand but you’re comfortable living there. There always areas of any city that are dangerous always been that way.
 
We think we know NY from the news but my nephew and his wife aren’t afraid of living there even with their new baby. I see everyone scared of Chicago, SF, Seattle, Los Angeles and NY now. I would be scared living in Vietnam and Thailand but you’re comfortable living there.
I guess it's a lot of perception and/or personal experiences versus what we see on TV.
 
It was mid town early afternoon.
Do you really think that the crime situation in NYC is fine or am I misreading what you're saying?
Not saying it's 100% fine but it's also not unsafe walking mid afternoon in those areas. I'm in city a decent amount and do not feel threatened.

It's definitely better than the 70s.
 
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We think we know NY from the news but my nephew and his wife aren’t afraid of living there even with their new baby. I see everyone scared of Chicago, SF, Seattle, Los Angeles and NY now. I would be scared living in Vietnam and Thailand but you’re comfortable living there.

I like New Paltz NY area for decades.
After 2020 riots and CV lockdowns a lot of NYers moved up.
I knew some personally and they were hardcore, Brooklyn born-n-bred NYers with prestigious addresses.
When they didn't like it anymore it stuck with me.

I went to MSG in June.
I never felt at risk but there was a huge amount of dudes with electric bikes and cycles, dirt bikes/ATVs.
They were off and on the sidewalks with impunity,
Those electric things can be hard to hear and I was def staying alert because you can get jacked pretty good,

I remember the Iranian revolution in 2009 when the paramilitary (Basij) were riding motorcycles all over the place and whacking people with clubs etc. I thought the violence prone groups will be using those in US someday.

 
Where do you send your kids go to school when you live in the nice section of Plainfield, when you don't have $30k/year for private

Call me “not woke”, but I read this and hear an effeminate male voice. You sound so scared.
 
Here is the issue I posted the article for-

Crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, according to new FBI data that contradicts a widespread national perception that law-breaking and violence are on the rise.

A Gallup poll released this month found that 77% of Americans believe crime rates are worsening, but they are mistaken, the new FBI data and other statistics show.


The FBI data, which compares crime rates in the third quarter of 2023 to the same period last year, found that violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3% to what would be its lowest level since 1961, according to criminologist Jeff Asher, who analyzed the FBI numbers.

Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded, Asher found, and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.

Yet 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising, the Gallup survey shows.

“I think we’ve been conditioned, and we have no way of countering the idea” that crime is rising,” Asher said. “It’s just an overwhelming number of news media stories and viral videos — I have to believe that social media is playing a role.”

I believe the crime rate was down across the country in 2023.


When you decriminalize crime, stop enforcing laws and defund the police what do you expect to happen to crime rates?

What is your definition of "crime rate"?

14,000 murders in 2014. 22,000 in 2022. 21,200 in 2023. Is that your idea of progress?

Radical left does not even give actual crime numbers. They come up with made up stats like crime rate per 100,000. They will then adjust their composite of actual crimes that they include in their crime rate.
 
When you decriminalize crime, stop enforcing laws and defund the police what do you expect to happen to crime rates?

What is your definition of "crime rate"?

14,000 murders in 2014. 22,000 in 2022. 21,200 in 2023. Is that your idea of progress?

Radical left does not even give actual crime numbers. They come up with made up stats like crime rate per 100,000. They will then adjust their composite of actual crimes that they include in their crime rate.

Real Statistics instead of made up statistics. Be Scared be Real Scared. No wonder life expectancy is shrinking with everybody being so scared.

MURDER​

The city recorded 488 murders in 2021, a 4% increase from 468 in 2020, which in turn was up 47% from 319 in 2019, and 295 homicides in 2018 after falling to a low of 292 in 2017 following a steady decline since the early 1990s. The number of murders in 2010 was 536, in 2000 was 673, and in 1990 was 2,262.

ROBBERY​

The city recorded 13,831 robberies in 2021, up 6% from 13,106 in 2020. The figure was 13,371 in 2019 after going as low as 12,913 in 2018. The number of robberies in 2010 was 19,486, in 2000 was 32,562, and in 1990 was 100,280.
 

Real Statistics instead of made up statistics. Be Scared be Real Scared. No wonder life expectancy is shrinking with everybody being so scared.

MURDER​

The city recorded 488 murders in 2021, a 4% increase from 468 in 2020, which in turn was up 47% from 319 in 2019, and 295 homicides in 2018 after falling to a low of 292 in 2017 following a steady decline since the early 1990s. The number of murders in 2010 was 536, in 2000 was 673, and in 1990 was 2,262.

ROBBERY​

The city recorded 13,831 robberies in 2021, up 6% from 13,106 in 2020. The figure was 13,371 in 2019 after going as low as 12,913 in 2018. The number of robberies in 2010 was 19,486, in 2000 was 32,562, and in 1990 was 100,280.
A few years ago in Philly thy reported murders were up, shootings were up, car jackings up and then said crime was down. Wth????

Murders can always be revised up. Thousands of missing persons are potential murders victims.

In Philly former police chief timoney even admitted some of the reported numbers were garbage. The city was misrepresenting the real crime stats.

There was a girl named Ellen Greenberg. She was stabbed 20+ times including stabs to he back. ME ruled murder. After political pressure the city got it changed to suicide.

Shannon schieber a UPenn student was murdered by a serial rapist. Problem is nobody knew there was a serial rapist since the city had been doctoring the stats.
 
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Not saying this is the case (I really don't know) but is it possible that crime is going down because of the charges that DAs are filing because they want to show more leniency? More progressive DAs would be more inclined to file reduced charges. Is it possible that more felonies are being pleaded down to misdemeanors? The last two Manhattan DAs since 2010, Alvin Bragg and Cyrus Vance, are probably the two most progressive people to hold the office.
 
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When you decriminalize crime, stop enforcing laws and defund the police what do you expect to happen to crime rates?

What is your definition of "crime rate"?

14,000 murders in 2014. 22,000 in 2022. 21,200 in 2023. Is that your idea of progress?

Radical left does not even give actual crime numbers. They come up with made up stats like crime rate per 100,000. They will then adjust their composite of actual crimes that they include in their crime rate.
Looks to me, we need Obama back then..,
 
Newark by the arena & Ironvound is decent

Plainfield has Sleepy Hollow
And Camden has the waterfront

Overall though, those 3 are not on anyone’s short list of places to live

Ironbound is definitely on the list of a lot of Portuguese speaking folks and those who don't want to pay Hudson County rent. The others I am not as familiar with.
 
Where do you send your kids go to school when you live in the nice section of Plainfield, when you don't have $30k/year for private

Not everyone has school age children, and not everyone pays that much for private school. Everything in life is a calculus and nothing is free. Also I am pretty sure Union has magnet schools just like a lot of other NJ counties. You can live on the bad side of the tracks in Asbury or on the JC/Bayonne border and send your kids to some of the best public schools in the US if they get in.
 
Ironbound is definitely on the list of a lot of Portuguese speaking folks and those who don't want to pay Hudson County rent. The others I am not as familiar with.
The Portuguese did an awesome job revitalizing that area

Throw in some great restaurants, access to train and proximity to the Pru Center, and it’s a win / win for everyone
 
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It was mid town early afternoon.
Do you really think that the crime situation in NYC is fine or am I misreading what you're saying?

It is grossly overblown. If you look at the statistics crime is down. There are just more homeless people (as everywhere) so it seems grittier.
 
Not saying this is the case (I really don't know) but is it possible that crime is going down because of the charges that DAs are filing because they want to show more leniency? More progressive DAs would be more inclined to file reduced charges. Is it possible that more felonies are being pleaded down to misdemeanors? The last two Manhattan DAs since 2010, Alvin Bragg and Cyrus Vance, are probably the two most progressive people to hold the office.

Most of the crime in NYC has been for decades now in one specific area of Brooklyn (near the Queens border but very much on the BK side) and the Bronx.

Cy Vance came in the Bloomberg years (January 2010)...so was he tough in 2010 but then weak subsequently?
 
City 100x more dangerous then it was during the RG years
Only way crime is down is if they're either not reporting it correctly, or not charging people with actual crimes when they commit them

Can't trust many government stats anymore.
Many police stopped rushing to calls - if they respond at all.
Many people in cities don't even call cops (illegals).
NYC doesn't even submit crimes stats.
Weak policing, poor stats, hideous reporting, corrupt leaders lying about everything.
Can't trust economic stas, border stats, war stats, climate stats, EV stats - garbage everywhere


"Experts say the data, released as part of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report on Wednesday, has some glaring holes due to an “overwhelming” lack of participation by police.

Nearly 40% of all law enforcement agencies — including in the nation’s two largest cities — failed to submit any data to the feds, who reported that violent crimes ticked down by about 1% across the country, from 1,326,600 in 2020 to 1,313,200 in 2021.

The figures were the first glimpse at the FBI’s new data collection system, which is voluntary and has been touted for years as a “much deeper” look at crime in the US.

But experts are already setting off alarms about using the figures."

 
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Can't trust many government stats anymore.
Many police stopped rushing to calls - if they respond at all.
Many people in cities don't even call cops (illegals).
NYC doesn't even submit crimes stats.
Weak policing, poor stats, hideous reporting, corrupt leaders lying about everything.
Can't trust economic stas, border stats, war stats, climate stats, EV stats - garbage everywhere


"Experts say the data, released as part of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report on Wednesday, has some glaring holes due to an “overwhelming” lack of participation by police.

Nearly 40% of all law enforcement agencies — including in the nation’s two largest cities — failed to submit any data to the feds, who reported that violent crimes ticked down by about 1% across the country, from 1,326,600 in 2020 to 1,313,200 in 2021.

The figures were the first glimpse at the FBI’s new data collection system, which is voluntary and has been touted for years as a “much deeper” look at crime in the US.

But experts are already setting off alarms about using the figures."

How do you know the previous data was accurate?

You could make the case that data submitted by the Hoover FBI was not to be trusted. In fact, do you believe during Jim Crow crimes against minorities were reported accurately?

Data is important and it is a shame if bad actors' massage or outright corrupt the data but to think the data is accurate when it is reported by people you like but incorrect when reported by those other guys is just nonsense.

I have asked several times to show us reports on why this data is corrupt and all I get is anecdotal stories that support what you guys believe but have not been shown documentation that supports that claim.
 
How do you know the previous data was accurate?

You could make the case that data submitted by the Hoover FBI was not to be trusted. In fact, do you believe during Jim Crow crimes against minorities were reported accurately?

Data is important and it is a shame if bad actors' massage or outright corrupt the data but to think the data is accurate when it is reported by people you like but incorrect when reported by those other guys is just nonsense.

I have asked several times to show us reports on why this data is corrupt and all I get is anecdotal stories that support what you guys believe but have not been shown documentation that supports that claim.
stats are deceiving. Take Philly murders for example, In 2021 it was a record year, 559 people were murdered. So just because in 2022 they were less (516) and 2023 less (408) doesn't mean its more safe than it used to be. MSM will tell you the murder rate is down, sure it is compared to last year but it used to be in the 200/low 300s per year only 5-10 years ago.

201233184.8%Michael A. Nutter
201324681.3%Michael A. Nutter
201424883.1%Michael A. Nutter
201528084.3%Michael A. Nutter
2016277Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney3283 Homicides in 8 Year Term
2017315Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney410 Average # Homicides Per Year
2018353Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2019353Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2020499Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2021562Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2022514Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2023410Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
 
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City 100x more dangerous then it was during the RG years
Only way crime is down is if they're either not reporting it correctly, or not charging people with actual crimes when they commit them
The data is garbage to begin with. It only takes one person with a pen to distort the data.
 
stats are deceiving. Take Philly murders for example, In 2021 it was a record year, 559 people were murdered. So just because in 2022 they were less (516) and 2023 less (408) doesn't mean its more safe than it used to be. MSM will tell you the murder rate is down, sure it is compared to last year but it used to be in the 200/low 300s per year only 5-10 years ago.

201233184.8%Michael A. Nutter
201324681.3%Michael A. Nutter
201424883.1%Michael A. Nutter
201528084.3%Michael A. Nutter
2016277Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney3283 Homicides in 8 Year Term
2017315Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney410 Average # Homicides Per Year
2018353Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2019353Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2020499Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2021562Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2022514Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2023410Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
Philly has even more homicides than that. Philly now has a stat listed as suspicious deaths. There are 100-200 suspicious deaths. Local papers ran a story on the subject. One suspicious death was a guy found in the street with multiple gunshots. Philly probably figured he shot himself and someone stole he gun.
 
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stats are deceiving. Take Philly murders for example, In 2021 it was a record year, 559 people were murdered. So just because in 2022 they were less (516) and 2023 less (408) doesn't mean its more safe than it used to be. MSM will tell you the murder rate is down, sure it is compared to last year but it used to be in the 200/low 300s per year only 5-10 years ago.

201233184.8%Michael A. Nutter
201324681.3%Michael A. Nutter
201424883.1%Michael A. Nutter
201528084.3%Michael A. Nutter
2016277Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney3283 Homicides in 8 Year Term
2017315Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney410 Average # Homicides Per Year
2018353Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2019353Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2020499Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2021562Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2022514Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
2023410Data Not AvailableJames F. Kenney
Of course, stats can be deceiving but to believe that only the people you do not like are the ones that use deceiving stats is ridiculous.

And yes, stats have to be analyzed properly over a range of time. You can be correct in stating the trend is crime is going down, but we still are not as safe as 5 or 10 years ago.
 
How do you know the previous data was accurate?

You could make the case that data submitted by the Hoover FBI was not to be trusted. In fact, do you believe during Jim Crow crimes against minorities were reported accurately?

Data is important and it is a shame if bad actors' massage or outright corrupt the data but to think the data is accurate when it is reported by people you like but incorrect when reported by those other guys is just nonsense.

I have asked several times to show us reports on why this data is corrupt and all I get is anecdotal stories that support what you guys believe but have not been shown documentation that supports that claim.


Experience! Do you think people don't know if they were a victim of a crime? Do you think they can't tell if their own neighborhood is safe? Do you need a politician to tell you what direction your neighborhood is heading?

You should send your kids to public school in the city for a year for a reality check.
 
How do you know the previous data was accurate?

You could make the case that data submitted by the Hoover FBI was not to be trusted. In fact, do you believe during Jim Crow crimes against minorities were reported accurately?

Data is important and it is a shame if bad actors' massage or outright corrupt the data but to think the data is accurate when it is reported by people you like but incorrect when reported by those other guys is just nonsense.

I have asked several times to show us reports on why this data is corrupt and all I get is anecdotal stories that support what you guys believe but have not been shown documentation that supports that claim.

The people who invented Jim Crow/KKK are the people who staff most agencies and kept stats the last 50 years. They just started going for the jugular the last 15 or so.

That said, I think its denial to dismiss massive criminality pervasive in so many cities and states because current stats aren't a lie because Jim Crow lied first.

Its pretty obvious that just shoplifting has been made legal and that perps for many crimes get off pretty easy. "Legal" shoplifting is failed state stuff - its "broken windows" in reverse.

America is a seedy place. Just look how many female teachers are boffing barely teen boys every week in papers. Students dont pay debts, Wall St helps China wreck US. The military destroys countries and wastes resources like crazy. WWII generation left a mostly beauful place (that party in south aside) and a third of Boomers just wrecked it - many calling it the worst generation (and they like to blame their millenial kids - before that they blamed their WWII parents)



"Car thefts in the Big Apple have surged a staggering 191% compared to before the COVID pandemic, according to NYPD data released Wednesday — as Mayor Eric Adams declared that “crime is down” and New York City had turned a corner.

More crime spree

A total of 15,802 vehicles were ripped off across the five boroughs through Dec. 31, an alarming uptick from the 5,438 stolen back in 2019, according to the year-end review of crime statistics."

https://nypost.com/2024/01/03/metro/car-thefts-surge-191-in-big-apple-since-2019-nypd-stats/
 
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Can you link the evidence of this.

The people who invented Jim Crow/KKK are the people who staff most agencies and kept stats the last 50 years. They just started going for the jugular the last 15 or so.
 
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I am not dismissing anything I just like data over anecdotal statements.

That said, I think its denial to dismiss massive criminality pervasive in so many cities and states because current stats aren't a lie because Jim Crow lied first.
 
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How do you know the previous data was accurate?

You could make the case that data submitted by the Hoover FBI was not to be trusted. In fact, do you believe during Jim Crow crimes against minorities were reported accurately?

Data is important and it is a shame if bad actors' massage or outright corrupt the data but to think the data is accurate when it is reported by people you like but incorrect when reported by those other guys is just nonsense.

I have asked several times to show us reports on why this data is corrupt and all I get is anecdotal stories that support what you guys believe but have not been shown documentation that supports that claim.
Are you looking for official government reports outlining why police aren't being called for petty crimes that contribute to the Broken Window theory because the prosecutors throw the cases out even if the cops show up, take reports, and collar the crook red handed? Good luck with that.


 
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