OT Weather forecast another fail
- Thread starter G- RUnit
- Start date
We modified our typical Father's Day plans based on the mid day Friday forecast for the weekend. That forecast appeared to get things backwards (Saturday, forecast to be pretty nice, sucked. Sunday, forecast to suck turned out sunny).
But whatever. It happens.
But whatever. It happens.
Predicting rainfall amounts from decaying tropical systems, coupled with frontal-focused instability (as opposed to classic low pressure systems), in summer, is subject to much larger errors than predicting snowfall amounts from nor'easters in winter. The rule of thumb for atmospheric energy follows the Arrhenius relationship, where the energy level in the atmosphere roughly doubles for every 10C rise in temperature. That means there is roughly 8x as much energy in a typical summertime system (at ~30C) vs. a wintertime system (at ~0C). Because of that increased energy, the range of outcomes is far wider, meaning the potential for error is far larger, especially areally, i.e., one can often get 2" in one location and very little rain 10-20 miles away, due to impossible to predict random elements.
That's how one can get 5-10" rainfall amounts in major summer storms (especially with any tropical element), while getting 1-2" of rainfall equivalent in the winter (1-2 feet of snow) is usually about the max. Obviously, because of that, the potential for being way off in a forecast in the summer is much greater. The funny thing is, though, most people usually don't give a crap in summer, unless they have outdoor plans, whereas people freak out when the snowfall forecast is off even a bit, lol. By the way, it was clear by early this morning, that the risk for major rain this morning and later this afternoon had greatly decreased.
Hmmmm, lets see. Options:
1. Enjoy surprisingly good weather!
2. Complain that the weather didnt suck?
Smh
-------
I checked the weather radar before bed last night and it looked like north east NJ was going to be clobbered any minute by heavy rain, even worse than the radar looked here in your post..looked again in the morning at the radar and the storm seemed to move east over the ocean, still looking like a nasty cell, but did not drop much rain at all, seemingly going right Over my area.
Seems weird
Similar threads
Latest posts
-
-
Podcast Rutgers Re-Hires Robb Smith as Co-DC and We Have....Thoughts- Latest: greenknight
-
